Dewan Housing Finance Corporation.

​ ​ ​3rd January 2017

vScore : 60 | Gain% : ​146.04%

​Exit Date​: 18-Jan-2018 | ​ Exit Price​ : Rs.608.95

BUSINESS BACKGROUND KEY DATA

​SHAREHOLDING PATTERN-SEP 16

​KEY FUNDAMENTALS

vScore: ​ ​vScore (Value Score)​ is our proprietary company rating system f

The company operates in housing and non housing loans segment, under that it has 77% loans in housing and
23% in housing category. Loan book of the company is growing at a strong rate of 22-23% from last few years.

Recent demonetisation may have short term impact on Q3FY17 for real estate and related sectors, for the
company most of the loans and projects will again come back in next quarter in case they pause in Q3FY17. So
current fall in prices and other fears are bit exaggerated. In medium to long term the company growth story remains
intact. Interest rates are expected to decline in coming quarters and this will in fact increase the demand for
housing loans.

With the increased focus on affordable housing from government and various new measures such as extra 50,000
interest deduction for first time home loan buyers, real estate bill has been passed by the government. All these
measures are expected to boost real estate activity in coming few quarters. Demand for new homes will rise
compared to last year as a result of it. Dewan housing is well poised to take advantage of this event, it has already
strengthened its position in tier 2 and 3 cities in last few quarters. Spending on ​advertisements and branding by
Shahrukh khan can help the company get some good business in near term.

Cost to income ratio improvement and expects to continue the trend:

Cost to income ratio has come down from 27.3% in FY15 to 26.3% for FY16. For Q1FY17, it was around 25% and
in Q2FY17, the company has lowered it to 23.2%. Going ahead cost to income ratio can further improve since the
overall costs and borrowing costs are coming down for the company.

Asset quality expected to be stable going ahead:

Despite focus on lending to the lower-middle income ( whose credit quality is relatively lower), DHFL has able to
maintain descent asset quality. GNPA’s continue to be within 85-1% range . For FY16, the company recorded
GNPA's for 0.93%. For Q1FY17, it was around 0.98% and in recent Q2FY17 it was around 0.96%. We expect the
company to maintain it around 0.9-1% range going ahead.

Other recent highlights:

The company has recently raised INR 14,000 Cr through the NCD's. So for future growth the company is well
capitalised. The rate of NCD was also around 9.2% which was lower than earlier ones. So this will slightly help the
company to lower its interest cost going ahead. Overall interest rates are expected to decline in next 2 year
significantly and this will boost the demand for housing loans.

Various operational measures are taken to avoid pre-closures such as details of customers who seek a loan
statement are forwarded to call centre and efforts are then made to retain the customers by reducing the lending
yield, etc. Prepayment rates are seen within high ticket loans (loan size above INR50mn), and loans within
Mumbai, NCR, Ahmedabad, etc. The company is committed to expand and market Dewan’s products pan India.
Tier 2 and 3 cities are expected to drive the growth in coming time for housing and real estate sector considering
the recent government push for it and declining interest rates.

Business Outlook and Valuation :

At the moment at current price of 246 the stock is trading at (TTM) P/E of 9.5. Going ahead we expect revenue
growth of 19-20% for FY17 and FY18. Hence our expectations for net sales for FY17 and FY18 are INR 8,753 Cr
and INR 10,564 Cr respectively.

Going ahead we expect PAT margins of 10-11% for next two years. Our PAT expectations for FY17 and FY18 are
INR 886 Cr and INR 1,107 Cr respectively. Our EPS expectations for FY17 and FY18 are INR 30 and INR 37
respectively.

Looking at other companies in housing finance with Industry average P/E of approx 14-15 and P/B average
valuations of 2-3; we believe Dewan Housing Finance Ltd at PE of 9.5 and P/B of 1.3 is very attractive. With EPS
expectations of 37 for FY18 and book value of 220-25 we expect target price as ​609/share ​with a stop loss at 200.

FINANCIALS:

For the Year Ended March (INR) FY15A FY16A FY17E FY18E
Net Sales (Cr) 5,978 7,311 8,753 10,564
Loans 51,416 62,029 75,195 91,922
Loan Growth% 25.9 20.6 21.2 22.2
Interest Expense (Cr) 4,693 5,490 6,584 7,887
Profit Before Tax (Cr) 943 1,102 1,323 1,652
Tax (Cr) 321 372 436 545
Profit After Tax (Cr) 621 729 886 1,107
PAT% 10.3 9.9 10.1 10.4
Diluted Adj. EPS (INR) 21.3 25 30 37.9
Shareholder's Funds (Cr) 4,635 5,017 5,684 6,558
Borrowings (Cr) 40,525 51,556 62,408 75,122
Gross Block (Cr) 256 291 335 388
Key Risks and Concerns:

● Any down turn in the housing and real estate industry or economy of a country can impact company’s
financials.
● Competitors' can create market share problems for the company.
● Company is open to risk of ​NPA management considering it lends to lower and middle class of population in
tier 2 and 3 cities, if not managed properly can create troubles to the company.

vScore: Value Score is our proprietary company rating system based on last 5 years of historical data and value investing
philosophy at its core. v360 combined with Macroeconomic indicators, projections, fundamental and technical trigger makes it
a 360 degree view.

Disclaimer: ​The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by Niveza Research Desk and are subject to change without any notice. This
report is for personal information of the authorized recipients. It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security.
This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its
accuracy or completeness guaranteed. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors and published with
presumption that the investors must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific
recipient. ​A comprehensive due diligence effort is recommended.

Source: Niveza Research Desk