MBF14e Chap05 FX Markets
MBF14e Chap05 FX Markets
MBF14e Chap05 FX Markets
1 Isaac Dez
Isaac Dez Peris lives in Rio de Janeiro. While attending school in Spain he meets
Juan Carlos Cordero from Guatemala. Over the summer holiday Isaac decides to
visit Juan Carlos in Guatemala City for a couple of weeks. Isaac's parents give
him some spending money, R$4,500. Isaac wants to exchange it to Guatemlan
quetzals (GTQ). He collects the following rates:
Spot rate on the GTQ/ cross rate
Spot rate on the /reais cross rate
GTQ 10.5799/
0.4462/R$
Values
4,500.00
10.5799
0.4462
4.72
21,243
Period
spot
1 month
2 months
3 months
6 months
12 months
Period
spot
1 month
2 months
3 months
6 months
12 months
Period
spot
1 month
2 months
3 months
6 months
12 months
Days
Forward
30
60
90
180
360
Days
Forward
30
60
90
180
360
Days
Forward
30
60
90
180
360
C$/euro
1.3360
1.3368
1.3376
1.3382
1.3406
1.3462
C$/euro
1.3360
1.3368
1.3376
1.3382
1.3406
1.3462
US$/euro
1.3221
1.3230
1.3228
1.3224
1.3215
1.3194
US$/euro
1.3221
1.3230
1.3228
1.3224
1.3215
1.3194
Forward Premium
on the C$/euro
0.722%
0.705%
0.659%
0.693%
0.765%
Forward Premium
on the US$/euro
0.817%
0.318%
0.091%
-0.091%
-0.204%
C$ Proceeds of
12,000.00
16,032.00
16,041.65
16,050.84
16,058.41
16,087.54
16,154.69
Difference
Over Spot
$9.65
$18.84
$26.41
$55.54
$122.69
US$ Proceeds of
12,000.00
$15,865.20
$15,876.00
$15,873.60
$15,868.80
$15,858.00
$15,832.80
Difference
Over Spot
$10.80
$8.40
$3.60
($7.20)
($32.40)
The Canadian exporter will be receiving six payments of 12,000 euros, ranging from now to 12 months in the future. Since the
company keeps cash balances in both Canadian dollars and US dollars, it can choose which currency to change the euros to at the
end of the various periods. And since the company wishes to lock in the forward rate for each and every payment, it would appear
that the company should lock in forward rates in C$ for all payments. Since the euro is selling forward at a greater premium against
the Canadian dollar than the U.S. dollar, the resulting dollar proceeds are higher.
/$
Bid Rate
109.30
109.05
108.80
107.97
107.09
103.51
96.82
/$
Ask Rate
109.32
109.09
108.90
108.34
107.40
104.19
97.35
Period
spot
1 month
2 months
3 months
6 months
12 months
24 months
Days Forward
30
60
90
180
360
720
/$
Bid Rate
109.30
109.05
108.80
107.97
107.09
103.51
96.82
/$
Ask Rate
109.32
109.09
108.90
108.34
107.40
104.19
97.35
a.
Calculated
Mid-Rate
109.31000
109.07000
108.85000
108.15500
107.24500
103.85000
97.08500
b.
Forward
Premium
2.6405%
2.5356%
4.2716%
3.8510%
5.2576%
6.2960%
The forward rates progressively require fewer and fewer Japanese yen per dollar than the current spot rate. Therefore, the yen is
selling forward at a premium and the dollar is selling forward at a discount.
c. Which maturities have the smallest and largest forward premiums?
The 24 month forward rate has the largest premium, while the 1 month forward possesses the smallest premium.
SF 1.2575/$
SF 1.2585/S
10 to 15
14 to 22
20 to 30
a. Calculate outright quotes for bid and ask, and the number of points spread between each.
b. What do you notice about the spread as quotes evolve from spot toward six months?
c. What is the 6-month Swiss bill rate?
Assumptions
Spot exchange rate:
Bid rate (SF/$)
Ask rate (SF/$)
One-month forward
3-months forward
6-months forward
a. Calculate outright quotes
One-month forward
3-months forward
6-months forward
Values
1.2575
1.2585
10 to 15
14 to 22
20 to 30
Bid
1.2585
1.2589
1.2595
Ask
1.2600
1.2607
1.2615
Spread
0.0015
0.0018
0.0020
$1.3214/
Rbl 30.96/$
Values
15,000.00
1.3214
30.96
40.91
Rubles/ = Rubles/$ x $/
b) How many rubles will you obtain for your euros?
Converting your euros into Rubles
613,658
After spending a week in London you get an email from your friend in Japan. He
can get you a very good deal on a plane ticket and wants you to meet him in
Osaka next week to continue your post-graduation celebratory trip. You have
GBP2,000 left in your purse. In preparation for the trip you want to exchange your
British pounds for Japanese yen, and you get the following quotes:
Spot rate on the pound sterling/dollar cross rate
Spot rate on the yen/dollar cross rate
0.6178/$
109.31/$
Values
2,000.00
0.62
109.31
176.9343
/ = /$ /$
b) How many yen will you obtain for your pounds?
Converting your pounds into yen
353,869
Country
China
Hong Kong
Indonesia
Korea
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Taiwan
Thailand
Currency
yuan
dollar
rupiah
won
ringgit
peso
dollar
dollar
baht
July 1997
(per US$)
8.40
7.75
2,400
900
2.50
27
1.43
27.80
25.0
November 1997
(per US$
###
7.73
3,600
1,100
3.50
34
1.60
32.70
40.0
Part a.
Percentage
Change vs dollar
0.0%
0.3%
-33.3%
-18.2%
-28.6%
-20.6%
-10.6%
-15.0%
-37.5%
Part b.
The Chinese yuan's value against the US dollar, as a result of the Chinese government maintaining its peg to the dollar,
did not change at all during the crisis. The Thai baht, however, fell 37.5% in only five months, with the Indonesian
rupiah a close second with a loss of 33.3%.
USD
7.7736
1.015
1.0097
0.9819
0.6328
83.735
0.7549
EUR
10.2976
1.3446
1.3376
1.3008
0.8382
110.9238
1.3247
JPY
0.0928
0.0121
0.0121
0.0117
0.0076
0.009
0.0119
Quote
83.735
0.0119
1.3247
0.7549
110.9238
0.009
1.0097
0.9904
1.015
0.9852
0.6328
1.5804
1.0184
0.9819
GBP
12.2853
1.6042
1.5958
1.5519
132.3348
1.193
1.5804
Calculated
0.0119
0.7549
0.0090
0.9904
0.9852
1.5803
0.9819
CHF
7.9165
1.0337
1.0283
0.6444
85.2751
0.7688
1.0184
CAD
7.6987
1.0053
0.9725
0.6267
82.9281
0.7476
0.9904
AUD
7.6584
0.9948
0.9674
0.6234
82.4949
0.7437
0.9852
HKD
0.1306
0.1299
0.1263
0.0814
10.7718
0.0971
0.1286
Period
spot
1 month
2 months
3 months
6 months
12 months
24 months
US$/
Bid Rate
1.3231
1.3230
1.3228
1.3224
1.3215
1.3194
1.3147
US$/
Ask Rate
1.3232
1.3231
1.3229
1.3227
1.3218
1.3198
1.3176
Period
spot
1 month
2 months
3 months
6 months
12 months
24 months
Days Forward
30
60
90
180
360
720
US$/
Bid Rate
1.3231
1.3230
1.3228
1.3224
1.3215
1.3194
1.3147
US$/
Ask Rate
1.3232
1.3231
1.3229
1.3227
1.3218
1.3198
1.3176
a)
Calculated
Mid-Rate
1.32315
1.32305
1.32285
1.32255
1.32165
1.31960
1.31615
b)
Forward
Premium
-0.0907%
-0.1360%
-0.1814%
-0.2267%
-0.2683%
-0.2645%
The forward rates progressively require less and less U.S. dollars per euro than the current spot rate. Therefore the dollar is
selling forward at a premium and the euro is selling forward at a discount.
c) Which maturities have the smallest and largest forward premiums?
The 1 month forward rate as the smallest premium, while the 12 month forward possesses the largest premium.
92.00/$
SF1.02/$
90.00/SF
Assume you have an initial SF12,000,000. Can you make a profit via triangular arbitrage?
If so, show the steps and calculate the amount of profit in Swiss francs (Swissies).
Assumptions
Beginning funds in Swiss francs (SF)
Mt. Fuji Bank (yen/$)
Mt. Rushmore Bank (SF/$)
Matterhorn Bank (yen/SF)
Try Number 1: Start with SF to $
Step 1: SF to $
Step 2: $ to yen
Step 3: yen to SF
Profit?
Values
12,000,000.00
92.00
1.0200
90.00
11,764,705.88
1,082,352,941.18
12,026,143.79
26,143.79
A profit.
1,080,000,000.00
11,739,130.43
11,973,913.04
(26,086.96)
A loss.
Period
spot
1 month
2 months
3 months
6 months
12 months
24 months
US$/A$
Bid Rate
0.98510
0.98131
0.97745
0.97397
0.96241
0.93960
0.89770
US$/A$
Ask Rate
0.98540
0.98165
0.97786
0.97441
0.96295
0.94045
0.89900
Period
spot
1 month
2 months
3 months
6 months
12 months
24 months
Days Forward
30
60
90
180
360
720
US$/A$
Bid Rate
0.98510
0.98131
0.97745
0.97397
0.96241
0.93960
0.89770
US$/A$
Ask Rate
0.98540
0.98165
0.97786
0.97441
0.96295
0.94045
0.89900
a.
Calculated
Mid-Rate
0.98525
0.98148
0.97766
0.97419
0.96268
0.94003
0.89835
b.
Forward
Premium
-4.5917%
-4.6252%
-4.4902%
-4.5816%
-4.5902%
-4.4100%
The forward rates progressively require fewer and fewer US dollars per Australian dollar than the current spot rate. Therefore
the US dollar is selling forward at a premium and the Australian dollar is selling forward at a discount.
c. Which maturities have the smallest and largest forward premiums?
The 24 month forward rate has the largest premium, while the 2 month forward possesses the smallest premium.
Barclays London
$1.262223/
Using $1 million or its euro equivalent, determine whether the corporate treasury
could make geographic arbitrage profit with the two different exchange rate quotes.
Assumptions
Beginning funds
Values
1,000,000.00
1.2624
1.2625
1.2622
1.2623
$
$
$
$
$
$
1,000,000.00
792,204.71
1,000,079.22
79.22
1,000,000.00
792,079.21
999,762.38
(237.62)
Values
778
1,025
Devaluation
then
Depreciation
-24.10%
The Venezuelan political and economic crisis deepened in late 2002 and early 2003. On
January 1st, 2003, the bolivar was trading at Bs1400/$. By February 1st, its value had
fallen to Bs1950/$. Many currency analysts and forecasters were predicting that the
bolivar would fall an additional 40% from its February 1st value by early summer 2003.
a. What was the percentage change in January?
b. Forecast value for June 2003?
Assumptions
Exchange rate, January 1, 2003 (Bs/$)
Exchange rate, February 1, 2003 (Bs/$)
Forecast fall in value from Feb 1 to early summer, 2003
Values
1,400
1,950
-40.0%
-28.21%
3,250
Assumptions
Days forward
European euro ( per $)
Quoted
Spot rate
1.3300
90-day
Forward rate
90
1.3400
Percent premium
or discount on euro
-2.9851%
The euro would be selling forward at a premium against the dollar, or equivalently, the dollar selling
forward against the euro at a discount.
In a way, the terminology is a bit tricky. One might say that the "forward premium is a premium."
Check calculation
One way to check percentage change calculations is to invert each of the currency
quotes (1/(/$)), and recalculate the quote using the direct quotation formula.
European euro ($ per )
Percent discount = (F-S)/(S) x (360/90)
$0.7519
$0.7463
-2.9851%
Assumptions
Days forward
Exchange rate, US$/
Quoted
Spot rate
$
1.5800
180-day
Forward rate
180
1.5550
Percent premium
or discount
-3.1646%
The forward rate requires fewer US dollars in exchange for pounds than the current spot rate. The dollar is therefore
selling forward at a premium against the pound (and the pound is simultaneously selling forward at a discount versus the
US dollar).
Check calculation
Inverting the quotes (/US$)
0.6329
0.6431
-3.1646%
Assumptions
Funds available
Citibank quote for USD/GBP
National Westminster quote for EUR/GBP
Deutschebank quote for USD/EUR
Spot Rate
$1.6194/
1.2834/
$1.2615/
Values
USD 1,000,000
1.6194
1.2834
1.2615
USD 1,000,000
EUR 792,707.09
GBP 617,661.75
USD 1,000,241
USD 241.44
USD 1,000,000
GBP 617,512.66
EUR 792,515.75
USD 999,758.61
-USD 241.39
Spot Rate
$1.619296/
1.283335/
$1.261416/
Assumptions
Funds available
Values
USD 1,000,000.00
Bid
1.6192
1.2833
1.2614
USD 1,000,000.00
EUR 792,644.26
GBP 617,564.68
USD 999,960.72
-USD 39.28
USD 1,000,000.00
GBP 617,436.40
EUR 792,356.14
USD 999,478.03
-USD 521.97
Ask
1.6196
1.2835
1.2616
$1.5900/
1.2000/
$0.7550/
$
$
$
$
Exchange rate
1.5900
1.2000
0.7550
1,000,000.00
1,000,000.00
1,324,503.31
1,103,752.76
1,754,966.89
754,966.89
1,000,000.00
628,930.82
754,716.98
569,811.32
(430,188.68)
USD1.9324 = LYD1.00
SAR 1.9405 = LYD1.00
USD0.2667 = SAR1.00
$
$
$
$
Exchange rate
1.9324
1.9405
0.2667
1,000,000.00
1,000,000.00
SAR 3,749,953.13
LYD 1,932,467.47
3,734,300.14
2,734,300.14
1,000,000.00
LYD 517,491.20
SAR 1,004,191.68
267,787.79
(732,212.21)