F9 2015 Dec A
F9 2015 Dec A
F9 2015 Dec A
Section B
1
(a)
(b)
If the stock market on which Gemlo Co is listed is semi-strong form efficient, share prices on the stock market will quickly
and accurately react to the release of new information. The stock market will have already factored the information about the
proposed business expansion into the share price of the company. The announcement that the business expansion will be
financed by a $10 million issue of 8% loan stock is new information, as is the announcement of the expected increase in
profit before interest and tax (PBIT) of 20% in the first year. The effect of the announcements on the share price of Gemlo Co
will depend on how the stock market interprets this new information.
Interest cover
The information about the financing choice indicates that annual interest will increase by $08 million (8% x $10m) from
$144 million (6% x $10m + 7% x $12m) to $224 million. The stock market knows that Gemlo Co currently has interest
cover of 6 times and hence PBIT of $864 million (6 x $144m). After the business expansion, PBIT is expected to increase
by 20% to $10368 million ($864m x 12) in the first year. The interest cover of Gemlo Co is therefore expected to fall to
46 times ($10368m/$224m).
The stock market will note that the interest cover of Gemlo Co, which at 6 times is already below the average interest cover
of 9 times of companies in the same business sector, will fall further below the average interest cover to 46 times.
Debt/equity ratio
The total market value of debt would increase from $21639 million to $31639 million. If the market value of equity remains
unchanged, the market value debt/equity ratio increases from 385% to 563% (100 x 31,639,000/56,250,000). From
being slightly less than the average debt/equity ratio of 40% of companies in the same business sector, therefore, the
debt/equity ratio of Gemlo Co would be 41% above it in relative terms.
Share price of Gemlo Co
Of course, the debt/equity ratio on a market value basis of Gemlo Co depends on the ordinary share price of the company.
The above analysis of interest cover and debt/equity ratio indicates that the shareholders of Gemlo Co will experience a
substantial increase in financial risk. The cost of equity of the company is therefore likely to increase. This will exert a
downward pressure on the share price of Gemlo Co, leading to a further increase in the market value basis debt/equity ratio.
The announcements of the financing decision and the expected increase in PBIT could therefore lead to a fall in the share
price of Gemlo Co.
On the positive side, the increase in PBIT may lead to more cash being available to pay dividends. If the company were to
make an announcement about increased future dividends, this would exert an upward pressure on the share price of
Gemlo Co, and this could counteract the downward pressure due to the increase in financial risk.
(a)
The borrowing interest rate in the forward rate agreement (FRA) is 45%. Borrowing 12 million for six months at 45% per
year gives an interest payment at the end of nine months of 270,000 (12m x 0045/2).
The finance director is concerned that the interest rate on the six-month loan could be as high as 55% per year. At this rate,
the interest payment on the loan at the end of nine months would be 330,000 (12m x 0055/2). Under the FRA, GXJ Co
would receive a compensating payment of 60,000, leaving the company with 270,000 of interest to pay.
The finance director also thought the interest rate on the six-month loan could be as low as 35% per year. At this rate, the
interest payment on the loan at the end of nine months would be 210,000 (12m x 0035/2). Under the FRA, GXJ Co would
make a compensating payment of 60,000 to the bank, again effectively leaving the company with 270,000 of interest
to pay. GXJ Co would not benefit from the lower interest rate, having entered into an FRA.
The FRA effectively locks GXJ Co into borrowing at 45% on its planned loan. The company would be protected against
interest rates rising above 45%, but would not benefit from lower interest rates.
(b)
The future interest payment of GXJ Co is 270,000 in nine months time. GXJ Co will be concerned about the dollar
depreciating against the euro, increasing the dollar cost of the euro interest payment. The forward rate indicates this is
11
expected to happen, as the nine-month forward exchange rate shows a 43% depreciation (100 x (17964
17191)/17964) of the dollar against the euro. The current dollar cost of the interest payment is $150,301
(270,000/17964) and the dollar cost of the interest payment after nine months is $157,059 (270,000/17191), an
increase of $6,758.
The future spot exchange rate may not be the same as the current forward exchange rate. One way to hedge the uncertainty
regarding the future spot rate is to lock into the current forward rate, and accept the depreciation it implies. One of the ways
to do this is by agreeing a forward exchange contract (FEC) with the bank, whereby the company agrees now to buy
270,000 at the forward rate in nine months time. This would fix the future dollar cost at $157,059.
Another hedging method, if GXJ Co regularly has euro income and euro expenditure, is to open a euro-denominated bank
account, so that transaction risk is reduced significantly because of transactions netting off against each other.
GXJ Co could consider hedging the future euro interest payment using a money market hedge, although an FEC is usually
cheaper. This requires a euro asset to be created to hedge the euro liability, so GXJ Co would put euros on deposit to hedge
the future payment.
(c)
Interest rate parity theory expresses the relationship between the current spot exchange rate between two currencies and the
forward exchange rate. It says that the forward exchange rate, which is available now in the foreign exchange market, depends
on the relative short-term interest rates in the two countries whose currencies are being compared.
Purchasing power parity theory expresses the relationship between the current spot exchange rate between two currencies
and the future (expected) spot rate. It says that the future spot rate which is expected to occur depends on the relative inflation
rates in the two countries.
The four-way equivalence model suggests that the difference between interest rates, the difference between inflation rates,
the difference between the spot exchange rate and the forward exchange rate, and the difference between the spot exchange
rate and the future (expected) spot rate should be equal and in equilibrium.
(a)
$000
1,800
1,020
2,820
3,400
580
23,200
480,000
12,000
515,200
Costs
Increase in administration costs
Cost of discount = $28,800,000 x 0005 x 075 =
35,000
108,000
143,000
372,200
A company could reduce the risk associated with foreign accounts receivable, such as export credit risk, by reducing the level
of investment in them, for example, by using bills of exchange.
If payment by the foreign customer is linked to bills of exchange, these can either be discounted or negotiated by a company
with its bank. Discounting means that the trade bills (term bills) are sold to the bank at a discount to their face value. The
company gets cash when the bills are discounted, thereby decreasing the outstanding level of trade receivables. Negotiation
means that the bank makes an advance of cash to the company, with the debt being settled when the bills of exchange (sight
bills) are paid.
12
Advances against collection means that the bank handling the collection of payment on behalf of the selling company could
be prepared to make a cash advance of up to 90% of the face value of the payment instrument, for example, bills of exchange.
Again, this would reduce the level of investment in foreign accounts receivable.
The risk of non-payment by foreign accounts receivable can be reduced by raising an international letter of credit
(documentary credit) linked to the contract for the sale of goods. This could be confirmed (guaranteed) by a bank in the foreign
customers country.
The exporting company could also arrange for export credit insurance (export credit cover) against the risk of non-payment,
which could occur for reasons outside the control of the foreign customer.
The risk of foreign accounts receivable becoming bad debts can be reduced by performing the same creditworthiness
assessment processes on foreign credit customers as those used with domestic credit customers, such as seeking credit
references and bank references.
Examiners note: Only TWO methods were required to be discussed.
(a)
The financial statement information of KQK Co can be projected forwards by one year.
Current position
$m
1400
1120
280
28
252
76
176
Income
Cost of sales and other expenses
Profit before interest and tax
Finance charges (interest)
Profit before tax
Taxation
Profit after tax
Equity finance
Ordinary shares
Reserves
Projected position
$m
1470
1154
316
44
272
82
190
$m
$m
$m
$m
250
1185
1435
250
1299
1549
Non-current liabilities
Current liabilities
360
383
2178
560
395
2504
The changes in key financial ratios can be compared with the average values of other companies similar to KQK Co.
Debt/equity ratio:
Interest cover:
Operational gearing:
Return on equity:
Dividend per share
Return on capital employed
Current
251%
10 times
26 times
123%
$028
156%
Forecast
362%
72 times
24 times
123%
$030
150%
Average
30%
10 times
2 times
15%
13
Workings
Forecast income = 1400m x 105 = $1470 million
Current variable costs = 1120m x 06 = $672 million
Current fixed costs = 1120m x 04 = $448 million
Forecast variable costs = 672 x 105 = $7056 million
Forecast cost of sales and other expenses = 448m + 7056m = $1154 million
Increase in finance charges = 20m x 008 = $16 million
Forecast finance charges = 28m + 16m = $44 million
Forecast reserves = 1185m + (190m x 06) = $1299 million
Forecast current liabilities = 383m x 103 = $395 million
Current operational gearing = (140m 672m)/28m = 26 times
Forecast operational gearing = (147m 7056m)/316m = 24 times
(b)
The current weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of a company reflects the required returns of existing providers of finance,
such as the cost of equity of shareholders and the cost of debt of providers of debt finance, for example, banks and loan note
holders. The cost of equity and the cost of debt depend on particular elements of the existing risk profile of the company, such
as business risk and financial risk. Providing the business risk and financial risk of a company remain unchanged, the cost
of equity and the cost of debt, and hence the WACC, should remain unchanged.
Turning to investment appraisal, the WACC could be used as the discount rate in calculating the present values of investment
project cash flows. Since the discount rate used should reflect the risk of investment project cash flows, using the WACC as
the discount rate will only be appropriate if the investment project does not result in a change in the business risk and
financial risk of the investing company.
One of the circumstances which is likely to leave business risk unchanged is if the investment project were an expansion of
existing business activities. WACC could therefore be used as the discount rate in appraising an investment project which
looked to expand existing business operations.
However, business risk depends on the size and scope of business operations as well as on their nature, and so an investment
project which expands existing business operations should be small in relation to the size of the existing business.
Financial risk will remain unchanged if the investment project is financed in such a way that the relative weighting of existing
sources of finance is unchanged, leaving the existing capital structure of the investing company unchanged. While this is
unlikely in practice, a company may finance investment projects with a target capital structure in mind, about which small
fluctuations are permitted.
If business risk changes as a result of an investment project, so that using the WACC of a company in investment appraisal
is not appropriate, a project-specific discount rate should be calculated. The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) can be used
to calculate a project-specific cost of equity and this can be used in calculating a project-specific WACC.
(a)
1
$000
2,072
(1,099)
973
(152)
821
821
(7)
2
$000
2,352
(1,250)
1,102
(159)
943
(222)
101
822
(7)
3
$000
2,596
(1,376)
1,220
(166)
1,054
(255)
76
875
(8)
814
0901
733
815
0812
662
867
0731
634
4
$000
2,716
(1,444)
1,272
(174)
1,098
(285)
57
870
(8)
200
1,062
0659
700
5
$000
(297)
117
(180)
(180)
0593
(107)
$000
2,622
(1,500)
1,122
The investment in the new machine has a positive net present value and is therefore financially acceptable.
14
Workings
Year
Selling price ($ per unit)
Sales volume (units/year)
Sales income ($000/year)
1
592
350,000
2,072
2
619
380,000
2,352
3
649
400,000
2,596
4
679
400,000
2,716
Year
Variable cost ($ per unit)
Sales volume (units/year)
Variable cost ($000/year)
1
314
350,000
1,099
2
329
380,000
1,250
3
344
400,000
1,376
4
361
400,000
1,444
1
$000
375
101
2
$000
281
76
3
$000
211
57
4
$000
433*
117
3
172
8
4
180
8
Year
Tax-allowable depreciation
Tax benefits at 27%
1
157
7
2
164
7
Theoretically, a company should invest in all projects with a positive net present value in order to maximise shareholder
wealth. If a company has attractive investment opportunities available to it, with positive net present values, it will not be
able to maximise shareholder wealth if it does not invest in them, for example, because investment finance is limited or
rationed.
If investment finance is limited for reasons outside a company, it is called hard capital rationing. This may arise because a
company is seen as too risky by potential investors, for example, because its level of gearing is so high that it is believed it
may struggle to deliver adequate returns on invested funds. Hard capital rationing could also arise if a company wants to raise
debt finance for investment purposes, but lacks sufficient assets to offer as security, leading again to a risk-related problem.
During a time of financial crisis, investors may seek to reduce risk by limiting the amount of funds they are prepared to invest
and by choosing to invest only in low-risk projects. It is also true to say that companies could struggle to secure investment
when the capital markets are depressed, or when economic prospects are poor, for example, during a recession.
If investment funds are limited for reasons within a company, the term soft capital rationing is used. Investing in all projects
with a positive net present value could mean that a company increases in size quite dramatically, which incumbent managers
and directors may wish to avoid in favour of a strategy of controlled growth, limiting the investment finance available as a
consequence. Managers and directors may limit investment finance in order to avoid some consequences of external
financing, such as an increased commitment to fixed interest payments if new debt finance were raised, or potential dilution
of earnings per share if new equity finance were raised, whether from existing or new shareholders.
Investment finance may also be limited internally in order to require investment projects to compete with each other for funds.
Only robust investment projects will gain access to funds, it is argued, while marginal projects with low net present values
will be rejected. In this way, companies can increase the likelihood of taking on investment projects which will actually
produce positive net present values when they are undertaken, reducing the uncertainty associated with making investment
decisions based on financial forecasts.
15
Marks
Section B
1
(a)
05
05
1
1
1
(b)
1
1
1
1
1
1
10
(a)
1
05
05
1
(b)
1
1
2
(c)
1
1
1
10
(a)
1
1
1
1
1
1
(b)
2
2
10
17
(a)
Marks
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Marks
10
(b)
2
2
1
15
(a)
1
1
05
1
1
1
1
1
05
1
1
10
(b)
14
14
Maximum
18
15