Cambridge Risk Framework

Profile of a Macro-Catastrophe Threat Type

Political Violence

Organised Crime: Piracy

Adrian Leonard, Andrew Coburn, Gary Bowman
Working Paper 201203.05
Draft: March 2012
Availability for download at
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Acknowledgement
This work was carried out with partial support from

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Threat Assessment Monograph

4 Political Violence

4.5 Organized Crime Piracy

Adrian Leonard1, Andrew Coburn2, Gary Bowman3*
5 March 2012
Abstract
International trading networks, such as commercial supply chains or timely delivery of
goods, and national security concerns, such as food and energy delivery, need to consider
the threats to them to develop a risk management strategy for resilience. 90% of commerce is
seaborne. This publication considers the threat to international shipping networks and
commerce that depends on it, from organized crime in the form of piracy at sea.
The phenomenon of piracy is profiled, with a history and quantification of recent trends.
The geography of threat is described and an index for global terrorism activity is proposed.
The potential for step-changes in the level of pirate activity is considered, along with control
process constraints that limit the rate of change that might be possible. A scenario for
extreme pirate activity is developed for use as a stress test in risk management, consistent
with a 1 in 100 probability of occurrence.

Keywords: Piracy, risk, organized crime, marine, insurance, shipping,

Working Paper 201203.05

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Author(s):
1,
Lead subject matter specialist, 'Affiliated researcher, Centre for Financial History at Newnham College,
University of Cambridge
2,
Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge
3,
Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge; Cambridge-Singapore Fellow; partial support from the
Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management, Nanyang Technical University, Singapore, gratefully
acknowledged
* Correspondence to: Gary Bowman, University of Cambridge Judge Business School Centre for Risk
Studies, Cambridge, UK, CB2 1AG. Email address: [email protected]

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Summary

Organized crime adds a burden to modern business, increasing costs and adding operational danger
to international operations. One of the worst operational hazards in international commerce is piracy.
Modern day pirates are criminals who typically intercept ships at sea and steal cargo or hold the
vessels, crews and cargo hostage for ransom. Pirates may also make attacks onshore. Piracy has
become an industry in its own right in several parts of the world, usually operating from havens
away from law and order, in places such as Somalia and Indonesia.
Modern piracy has been resurgent worldwide since the mid-1990s. In the period 1995 to 2010 there
were over 5,000 recorded pirate incidents worldwide attempted and successful attacks an average
rate of 320 a year. In a single year, 2009, pirates took 746 hostages, hijacked 56 ships, murdered 8 crew
members and injured 59 others.
Piracy is seen worldwide, but activity varies in different regions. The late-1990s boom in piracy was
chiefly in the South China Sea and Malacca Straits, but this has declined with concerted policing and
military assistance. The recent escalation of piracy is from Somalia, attacking the busy shipping lanes
around the Horn of Africa and East Africa. The Gulf of Aden has been classified as a piracy war
zone by Lloyds marine insurers since 2008.
Commercial shipping companies and their insurers have paid ransoms rather than lose ships and
crews. In 2009-10 an estimated $415 million was paid out in ransoms to pirates. The average ransom
demand has escalated from an average of $150,000 in 2005 to over $4 million in 2010. In November
2010, Samho Dream, a South Korean oil tanker seized by Somali pirates, was ransomed for $9.5 million.
The ransom revenues have also made pirate warlords rich, provided economic support for entire
Somalian communities, and been reinvested in the equipment and weaponry for more piracy.
Piracy has added significantly to shipping cost overheads, in lengthening travel routes, increasing
pay scales for crews, and escalating insurance rates: insurance premiums for ships traveling through
the Gulf of Aden have increased from $500 per voyage in 2008, to up to $150,000 in 2010. The total
costs of piracy including commercial cost escalation, re-routing and security measures are estimated
to be in their billions: One estimate puts the cost as high as $12 billion in 2010.
The rapid growth in piracy threatens to have even worse consequences. A step-change increase in the
frequency of pirate incidence could have a severe impact on world trade: very significant reductions
in traffic along the trade lanes between the Far East and Europe would result, according to some
analysts, causing major strcutural shifts in global trading patterns.
For piracy activity to achieve a step-function increase, new conditions would have to arise, for
example increases in the pirate populations through economic austerity and failed states; increased
incentives with escalating ransom values; any reduction in naval deterrence; or new techniques and
weaponry that could increase pirate success. The rate at which pirate activity can increase is however
constrained by control processes: the rate at which new pirate action can occur is limited by
logistical challenges of pirates gearing up their activity, manning and equipping larger numbers of
pirate teams; by adaptive and defensive strategies adopted by the sailing vessel targets, and most
importantly, by the naval and military response to counter increases in pirate activity.
A stress test scenario of pirate activity is proposed for risk management, representing a 1 in 100
probability level of occurring in the short term. Analysis suggests that there is a 1% probability of
pirate activity suddenly increasing to a level of 1,000 incidents in a single year, or 3 times the current
annual average rate. For the stress test scenario 75% of these attacks are assumed to occur in the East
Africa ocean region. The piracy stress test scenario can be used to assess supply chain vulnerabilities,
food and energy security management, and other risk management activities.

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Definition

No definition of piracy has been universally agreed. The United Nations Convention on the Law of
the Sea includes any illegal acts of violence or detention, or any act of depredation, committed for
private ends by the crew or the passengers of a private ship or a private aircraft, and directed: (i) on
the high seas, against another ship or aircraft, or against persons or property on board such ship or
aircraft; (ii) against a ship, aircraft, persons or property in a place outside the jurisdiction of any State;
any act of voluntary participation in the operation of a ship or of an aircraft with knowledge of facts
making it a pirate ship or aircraft; any act inciting or of intentionally facilitating an act described
*above+.
However, this definition captures only acts committed in international waters, which excludes, for
example, piracy in the Strait of Malacca. To account for this, the International Maritime Bureau (IMB)
has broadened the definition to include any act of boarding (or attempted boarding) with the intent
to commit theft or any other crime and with the intent or capability to use force in furtherance of that
act. Others have adapted the definition to exclude politically motivated crimes. Further, a distinction
must be drawn between piracy and privateering. The latter is a state-sanctioned act of war by private
agents against an enemy nations merchant shipping, but has the look and feel of piracy.

The Threat

Seaborne trade accounts for as much as 90% of international trade, and any vessel is a target. The
immediate threat of piracy is obvious: danger to the property and safety, and to the lives of mariners.
According to the International Maritime Organisation, pirates killed eight crew members, and fiftynine were injured or assaulted in 2009. About seven hundred and forty-six were taken hostage or
kidnapped; in total fifty-six ships were reportedly hijacked1. Small private vessels may be attacked
for the crews valuables; larger vessels sometimes have the additional lure of the ships safe, which
often includes large sums of cash for port payrolls, and potentially items of cargo. At the other end of
the scale, massive cargo and crude carriers have been hijacked and taken hostage by pirates, either for
ransom or for the sale of their cargoes. The average length of a hijacking of vessel and her crew is over
7 months2, removing the vessel from productive service and causing distress and management
distraction for the shipping companies and their customers.

3.1

Consequences

Beyond the immediate threat to trade goods, vessels, and to the individuals facilitating their
transport, piracy attacks can generate significant and far-reaching secondary outcomes.
3.1.1

Increased cost of shipping

One is additional cost. Marine insurance is routinely and almost always purchased for international
cargoes and vessels, but a concentration of piracy attacks can drive insurance prices higher by
multiples.
3.1.2

Rerouting

Repeated piracy attacks concentrated in time and space may make a waterway passable only at
significant additional expense, or even functionally impassable, despite insurance, causing vessels to
re-route. In recent years this has been the case in the waters off east Africa. Many major international
vessel owners now choose the old route around the Cape of Good Hope to the much shorter Suez

1
2

International Maritime Organisation, Reports on acts of Piracy and Armed Robbery against Ships, Annual Report 2009
IMB BMP4, 2011

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Canal option, which takes vessels through the pirate-infested Gulf of Aden, where 222 piratical
incidents occurred in 20093.
3.1.3

Delays and delivery interruptions

The interruption of the shipping of input materials for manufacturing may result in serious
production delays or stoppages. Sustained, intensive, and concentrated incidence of piracy can even
lead to a permanent dislocation of international trade.
Piracy in the Strait of Malacca in the 2000s led transportation planners to consider the relocation of
south east Asias key hub ports from Singapore and Malaysia. 4 Thus, piracy has the potential to
inflict serious and lasting impacts on individuals, corporations, trading systems, consumer markets,
and nation-states.
3.1.4

Estimates of total costs of piracy

One estimate of the of maritime piracy in 2010 put the total between $7 billion and $12 billion,
including ransoms, insurance premiums, rerouting ships, security equipment, naval forces,
prosecutions, piracy deterrent organizations and the cost to regional economies.
At the end 2010, about 600 sailors from 18 countries were being held hostage by pirates 5.
Far from the romantic image of buccaneers in the age of sail, or the childrens version of pirates
characterised by Captain Hook, piracy today is real, growing, costly, and very often fatal.
3.1.5

Seasonality

Pirate activity varies throughout the year, due to changing weather conditions and activity by Naval
and Military forces. Pirate activity in the East Africa and Arabian Sea region generally reduces in
areas affected by the South West monsoon, and increases in the period following the monsoon.6

3.2

History of Piracy

Piracy has been persistent since the outset of ocean-going commerce. Stories of piratical attacks on
shipping by the Sea Peoples of Lycia (in modern south-west Turkey) in the late Bronze Age are
probably the earliest recorded incidents. Those stories are told in some of humanitys oldest texts and
hieroglyphs, so the first occurrences were probably earlier, coincident with the arrival of shipping,
not writing. Thus, the Mediterranean was perhaps never free of piracy. Greece in its Archaic period
(c. 750-500 BC) occasionally turned its navy against the pirate islands of Kithnos, Mykonos and the
Sporadi; under Roman rule the distraction of the Carthaginian wars stretched Imperial naval
resources, leaving pirate communities to flourish. Historian of piracy Maurice Holleaux argues that
from the earliest times, piracy had free play in *Illyrian+ waters, and this profitable career had been
assiduously followed by the inhabitants of the eastern shore of the Adriatic. The Roman conquest of
Illyria in the second century BC was intended to halt its neighbours piratical activities. 7 In Asia, the
collapse of the Han Dynasty of China led to a breakdown of maritime patrols, allowing piracy to
resurge and menace shipping until the Ming Dynasty regained control of Chinese waters more than a
millennium later.

3
4

5
6
7

Ibid.
Tongzon, J.L.: Wither the Malacca Straits? The rise of new hub ports in Asia, in Ong-Webb, G.W. (editor): Piracy, maritime
terrorism, and securing the Malacca Straits. Singapore: International Institute for Asian Studies, 2006.
Bowden, Anna et al: The Economic Cost of Maritime Piracy. One Earth Future Working Paper, December 2010, p. 2.
IMB BMP4 (2011)
Holleaux, M. 1928 The Romans in Illyria. Cambridge Ancient History VII, 824.

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3.2.1

th

th

15 to 19 century

Piracy continued in the Mediterranean, although from about the fifteenth century traditional threats
to European shipping (such as Catalan Christian pirates) were displaced by the rise of Muslim piracy
by groups often called the Barbary Corsairs. These attacks, which focussed on slaving, peaked in the
seventeenth century. Meanwhile, Europeans began regularly to undertake oceanic trade outside the
Mediterranean. The romantic age of piracy perhaps began when the French captain Jean Fleury
seized two vessels of the Spanish flota returning treasure from New Spain. Arguably this famous
incident was a military act, but ultimately Fleury was captured by the Spanish and hanged as a pirate.
While an era of piracy and privateering involving notorious characters such as William Kidd and
Henry Morgan created a lasting image of adventure, brutality and violence remained characteristic.
In Asian waters, for example, confederacies of sea robbers operated almost on the level of sea-states.
A group led by Ching Yih in the early nineteenth century is said to have included hundreds of vessels
and over 50,000 men, and to have defeated the Chinese navy in battle by sinking 63 of its vessels.
Unfortunately, however, no comprehensive record or accounting of piracy attacks in either the South
China Sea or the Mediterranean, or even the piratical Caribbean, has been kept until the 1980s. Its
prevalence in earlier eras is thus a matter for conjecture only.
3.2.2

th

th

19 and early 20 century

Over the course of the nineteenth century organised, sustained piracy was largely eradicated, first in
the Mediterranean where the last Barbary corsairs were mopped up, later in the Caribbean and finally
in the Far East, as Britains Royal Navy, in a time of European relative peace, focussed its attention on
the protection of shipping. Combined with naval patrols of shipping lanes, the spread of modern
administration of land gave pirates fewer havens in which to hide. In the period often called the Pax
Britannia, piracy was at a low ebb.

3.3

The Modern Piracy Resurgence

This began to change in the postwar era. By the late 1980s piracy had made a resurgence, first in
southeast Asian waters, later in the seas off east Africa. It now constitutes a serious and costly danger
to the worlds business. In total, 5,227 incidents were reported between 1984 and the end of December
2008.8 David Marley has isolated seven causes of the resurgence:
1) the virtual disappearance of western merchant fleets;
2) larger ships with smaller crews;
3) the expansion of national jurisdictions into adjacent territorial waters;
4) irresolution over pirate trials under international law;
5) the shift of large scale commercial traffic into Asian waters;
6) widespread use of flags of convenience; and
7) the proliferation of light arms among civilians. 9

8
9

International Maritime Organisation, Reports on acts of Piracy and Armed Robbery against Ships, Annual Report 2009.
David F. Marley: Modern Piracy: A Reference Handbook, ABC-CLIO, 2010, p. 9.

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Figure 1

Reported Piracy Incidents: 1978-2000. Compiled by M. Bruyneel.

Research by Mark Bruyneel provides the following graphic illustration of the dramatic increase in
piracy incidents since a dip occurred in the 1980s.10 Bruyneel identified a low level of attacks in the
1970s, but states that central recordkeeping was not undertaken prior to 1980. His statistics for 1984 to
1989 show a range of 30 to 55 attacks each year. For later years data from the International Maritime
Organization are used; the IMO began to keep piracy statistics in 1984, and in 1992 established the
Piracy Reporting Centre, which collects reported piracy data.
The International Maritime Bureau proffers a picture similar to Bruyneels, extended to 2009, broken
down by region. The figures show how the successful combating of piracy in the Malacca Strait and
the South China Sea has been usurped by a dramatic increase in acts of piracy in east African waters,
particularly the Gulf of Aden. They show a second dramatic rise in piracy incidents in recent years,
from an average of less than fifty events per year in the 1980s, to a sustained level of 300 to 450 attacks
per year from 1989-2004, and a return to those peaks, following the rise of Somali pirates, in 2008 and
2009.11

10
11

http://home.wanadoo.nl/m.bruyneel/archive/modern/index.htm
International Maritime Organisation, Reports on acts of Piracy and Armed Robbery against Ships, Annual Report 2009.

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Figure 2

Increasing Frequency of Piracy Incidents Worldwide

The piracy problem has continued to grow. The IMO has reported that, in 2010, some 489 actual or
attempted acts of piracy and armed robbery occurred, up 20.4% over 2009, and the fourth successive
year of increasing numbers. Many vessels have avoided pirate-infested waters in the Gulf of Aden
and off the Somali coast by travelling instead around the Cape of Good Hope. The UN Conference for
Trade and Development reports that: if piracy attacks increased [by] ten times, it would lead to a
reduction of 30% in total traffic along the Far EastEurope trade lane, [but] only 18% of the total
traffic would sail through the Cape of Good Hope.12 The cost of these events has been significant. As
stated above, in 2010 the estimated total cost of maritime piracy was between $7 billion and $12
billion.13
Costs of piracy are rising. One Earth Future states that ransoms demanded by pirates averaged
$150,000 in 2005; estimates of the equivalent for 2010 have shot up to $4 million and $5.4 million. In
November that year, Samho Dream, a South Korean oil tanker seized by Somali pirates, was
ransomed for $9.5 million. The researchers have put the total cost of ransoms for 2009-10 at $415
million, including related expenses such as negotiation expenses and the cost of idle vessels. The cost
of insurance has also skyrocketed. Areas where piracy is most rampant are declared War Risk zones
by insurers, requiring the payment of an additional premium. The Malacca Strait was so designated
between 2005 and 2006; the Gulf of Aden, which lies between Somalia and Yemen and is the ultimate
exit from the Suez Canal, was designated a war zone by Lloyds in May 2008. According to One Earth
Future the cost of war risk premiums have risen since then from $500 per ship, per voyage, to up to
$150,000 in 2010. Outside of war zones, piracy risk, including ransoms, is included in standard
policies covering vessels and cargoes. The cost of such insurances has also risen dramatically. Costs of
re-routing and security measures have also been enormous, reaching billions of dollars annually. 14

4
12
13
14

Geography of Hazard
Review of Maritime Transport 2011, U.N. Conference for Trade and Development, 2012.
Bowden, Anna et al: The Economic Cost of Maritime Piracy. One Earth Future Working Paper, December 2010, p. 2.
Ibid., pp. 9-18.

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Any area of the seas can be subject to individual, disconnected acts of piracy, at almost any time.
However, the acts of piracy which are of greatest concern are those which are organised and repeated.
The International Maritime Bureau currently classifies piracy incidents by the following regions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Malacca Strait
Indian Ocean
East Africa
West Africa
Latin America and the Caribbean
Mediterranean
North Atlantic
South China Sea
Arabian Sea
Others

Figure 3

International Maritime Bureau Piracy Map 2011

The combination of two factors determines the location of contemporary piracy: the proximity of a
busy shipping lane to an area of weak state control or high levels of insurgent activity, or both.
Because of this, the Mediterranean Sea, where piracy began, is now almost entirely free of piracy
incidents, while poor governance and civil war in the east African nation of Somalia have,
notoriously, made the Gulf of Aden into a piratical playground where vessels are extremely
vulnerable to kidnap. In recent years concentrated piratical activity has occurred in the Malacca Strait,
which divides the Malaysian Peninsula from the Indonesian island of Sumatra. The South China Sea
is another area where piracy has reached serious levels, accounting for half or more of reported
incidents until the rise of piracy elsewhere from about 2000. The Sea is bordered roughly by Vietnam,
China, Taiwan, Philippines, Malaysian Borneo, and Indonesia, is claimed almost entirely by China,
but this claim is hotly disputed by other countries. The sheer volume of shipping in the Sea is seen as
a key reason for the rise of piracy there.15

15

Rosenberg, David: The political economy of piracy in the South China Sea. Naval War College Review, Summer 2009, Vol.
62, No. 3, p. 44.

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Regional division of the oceans and seas into piracy zones is therefore reactive: while large seas such
as the South China and the Mediterranean are usual divisions, smaller bodies of water such as the
Gulf of Aden tend to be singled out only when piracy there is organised, extensive, and persistent.
For example, the true limits of the Indian Ocean include the Gulf of Aden, but West African piracy
has seen the smaller region identified as a specific zone, and presumably excluded from the Indian
Ocean zone specified in the IMO data displayed in Figure 3.

Figure 4

Threat Dynamics by Geography Regional Activity over Time

East Africa & Indian Ocean

South China Sea & Malacca Straits
All Others

4.1

Recend Trends in Regional Activity

Two broad geographical regions dominate pirate activity: Southeast Asia, consisting of the South
China Sea and the Malacca Straits, and the Horn of Africa, a large zone that extends from East Africa
to the Indian Ocean. The period from the middle of the 1980s through to the early 21st century saw a
surge in activity in Southeast Asia. Almost half of all pirate attacks worldwide in the period 1995 to
2005 were in the South China Sea or the Malacca Straits. The phenomenon of piracy in the Malacca
Straits is described in the case study below. Coordinated marine patrols, combined with destruction
of the social and support infrastructure of the pirate communities in Indonesia, are credited with this
reduction in activity after 2004.
This however has been replaced by a major upsurge in pirate activity in East Africa in the period
since 2006. Attack frequencies doubled within three years and continue to increase. In the period
since 2006, almost half of the pirate attacks worldwide have been located in East Africa, the Indian
Ocean or the Arabian Sea. The current dynamic is shown in Figure 4, with the new surge in the Horn
of Africa exceeding the peak levels of activity in Southeast Asia in 200.

4.2

East Africa High Risk Zone

The High Risk Area for piracy attacks from Somalia is defined by the International Maritime Bureau
as an area bounded by Suez and the Strait of Hormuz to the North, 10S and 78E 16. The UKMTO
Voluntary Reporting Area is slightly larger as it includes the Arabian Gulf. Attacks have taken place
at most extremities of the High Risk Area. Attacks to the South have extended into the Mozambique

16

IMB BMP4 (2011)

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Channel. Within this area, there is an Internationally Recommended Transit Corridor (IRTC), where
the Naval/Military forces in the Gulf of Aden concentrate their patrols.
Figure 5

East Africa High Risk Zone

Case Study: Strait of Malacca

For centuries, the Strait of Malacca has been the primary commercial route between the Indian Ocean
and the South China Sea. The sea lane, which divides the Malaysian Peninsula from the Indonesian
island of Sumatra, is roughly 900 kilometres long, but at its narrowest is just 2.7 kilometres wide.
Today it is the critical route between Europe,
via the Suez Canal and the Middle East, and
the ports of East Asia and the Pacific.
Between a quarter and a third of all of the
worlds seaborne trade passes through the
Strait of Malacca carried upon some 90,000
vessels per year. According to the United
States Energy Information Agency, an
estimated fifteen million barrels of oil flow
through each day.
Piracy has been a persistent presence in
southeast Asian waters for at least 2000
years. For the first time in over a century, it became a serious concern in the Malacca Strait in the
2000s.

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Figure 6

Malacca Strait Piracy Incidents, 1992-2009, based on IMO data.17

The reasons for the rise are not clear, although it has been suggested that the Asian financial crisis of
1997 may have forced hard-hit littoral residents to piracy, which may have been easier in an
atmosphere of decreased political stability brought about by the crisis. According to data collected by
the International Maritime Bureau, actual and attempted acts of piracy in the Strait increased from
two in 1999 to seventy-five in 2000. The International Maritime Organisation, which uses a wider
definition of piracy, put the number for 2000 at 112. Attacks included simple robbery, hijacking, and
kidnap-for-ransom. According to the Bureau, the first kidnappings for ransom in the Strait occurred
in 2001, when a vessel docked for repairs was looted. The master and second officer were held, and
ransomed for $30,000.
Some Malacca Strait piracy appeared to be political. When the Ocean Silver was boarded and six crew
taken ashore for ransom in 2001, a spokesman for Gerakan Aceh Merdeka, the Free Aceh Movement,
which seeks independence for Aceh from Indonesia, said that in future shippers should seek safety of
passage from the organisation.
In September 2005, in response to the rising number of piracy incidents in the Strait, Lloyds of
London, one of the worlds largest centres for the insurance of marine vessels, removed piracy from
those perils included in standard marine insurance coverage. It reclassified piracy as a peril of war,
which carries an additional premium for vessels active in areas deemed to be active war zones. 18
Other insurers had excluded piracy for standard insurance cover for decades, and offered it as a
separate endorsement. Rates for such cover were raised, or cover was withdrawn. Many new
insurance facilities were established to offer piracy protection19, bringing an associated cost. Most
dramatically, piratical activity in the Straits of Malacca led some analysts to predict the decline of the
littoral ports of Singapore and Malaysia, in favour of new and emerging facilities which were more
distant from the Malaccan piracy threat.20
According to Mak, a clash of interests prevented an early resolution of the Malacca Strait piracy
problem. This clash was manifest on well level between the national interests of Malaysia and
Indonesia, coastal states with coastal interests, and the interests of major users of the waterway,
characterised by Mak as maritime states. The littoral states saw the Strait as one of many coastlines
17
18
19

20

http://www.icc-ccs.org/home/piracy-reporting-centre/imb-live-piracy-map-2010
Owners set for battle over piracy cover, Lloyds List, 15.11.2005.
See, for example, Sumitomo Marine To Offer Piracy Insurance To Shipping Cos, Dow Jones International News, 22.07.1999;
U.K. firm launches piracy insurance - ransom cash, negotiators provided - rise in open-seas hostage taking cited, Toronto
Star, 19.01.2006.
Tongzon, J.L.: Wither the Malacca Straits? The rise of new hub ports in Asia, in Ong-Webb, G.W. (editor): Piracy, maritime
terrorism, and securing the Malacca Straits. Singapore: International Institute for Asian Studies, 2006.

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and maritime issues to deal with; the others as a critical link in the global transportation, its utility
lying only in its role as a highway.21 In short, the coastal states had little interest in seeing military
vessels from maritime powers in their territorial waters, but had insufficient resources to clean up the
problem themselves. In July 2004 Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore began coordinated marine
patrols, but they could not pursue suspect vessels over each others territorial boundaries, and had
little effect. Ironically, it was another shock the tsunami later the same year, which devastated the
region of Aceh, where pirate communities were thought to reside, led to a large reduction in
incidents, from 38 in 2004 to 12 the following year. The sustained decrease in incidents is attributed in
part to the end of a 26-year battle between the Free Aceh Movement and the Indonesian government,
which was itself a direct result of the natural catastrophe. 22

Defining a Stress Test Scenario

6.1

Magnitude Scale: Piracy Threat Index

The Cambridge System Shock framework represents piracy threat with the IMO-reported total
number of reported acts of piracy in a single year. This represents the magnitude scale of piracy
activity. i.e. the piracy event of concern is a year of increased activity in a given region of high
marine traffic.
The data records piracy incidents as either attempted or successful. Whether an event comprises
the petty robbery of a fishing vessel or the highly coordinated, well-financed hijacking of a Very
Large Crude Carrier, organisations investigating and reporting on piracy make no distinction of
severity. However, when events are concentrated in time and space, they constitute a shock to world
trade. When the Lloyds Market association, a body representing insurance underwriters at Lloyds of
London, declares a body of water a war zone for insurance purposes, the magnitude of the shock can
be considered as significant.

6.2

The 1 in 100 Likelihood Level for Pirate Activity

The Cambridge System Shock framework standardizes scenarios proposed for stress tests by
assessing the magnitude of extreme event that is likely to occur with a 1% probability (1 in 100
chance) in the next year.
For piracy, we define the stress test scenario in terms of the piracy threat index (the total number of
IMO-reported piracy incidents across the world).
The past 15 years has seen high levels of piracy activity, running at an annual average of around 320
events worldwide. The trend suggests that piracy in southeast Asia is declining or stable, but that
piracy levels in East Africa are rising. The number of piracy events fluctuates considerably year on
year. In an extreme year, the incidence of pirate activity would be surprisingly high relative to the
trend. This could be the result of various coincidences or unexpected causal drivers.
6.2.1

Alternative methods for assessment

One method of assessing the likelihood of extremes is to do statistical analysis of the volatility of past
fluctuations. An alternative method is event tree derivation, where the various causal mechanisms
are defined that might give rise to extreme variations. The current trends could potentially undergo a
jump discontinuity from an expected progression of the current situation to a new state of affairs
21

22

Mak, J.N.: Unilaterlism and Regionalism: Working together and alone in the Malacca Strait, in Ong-Webb, G.W. (editor):
Piracy, maritime terrorism, and securing the Malacca Straits. Singapore: International Institute for Asian Studies, 2006, pp. 1356.
Raymond, C. Z.: Piracy and armed robbery in the Malacca Strait: A problem solved?, Naval War College Review, Summer
2009, Vol. 2, No. 3, pp. 36-7.

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that gives rise to a radically different level of activity. For example in the East Africa region, pirate
activity has been increasing at an average of about 40% each year since 2004 but what would it take
for this level of increase to suddenly go through a step change to a very much larger increment in the
near future?
Statistical analysis of the past 25 years of IMO data suggests that the 1% probability of exceedance (1
in 100 chance per year) is around 3 times the average i.e. about 1,000 events in a single year. There
are different analytical techniques that give a range of potential values from 750 to 1,300, depending
on the type of distribution that might be assumed.
6.2.2

Piracy step changes

Piracy can be seen as a control process the number of incidents is a function of the capabilities,
desire and resources of the adversary, controlled by the counter-measures in place to prevent or
suppress the activities. Pirate communities are spawned when populations can operate in a lawless
home base environment, with little alternative legitimate economic potential, and with high rewards
incentivising pirate operations. The control systems that suppress pirate activity are the armed
marine patrols that prevent and deter attacks on ships, the establishment of law enforcement in the
home base territory of the pirates, and the removal of the approval and support of their home
community.
A step increase in the rate of piracy could occur from a number of changes in these conditions, either
in the regions where piracy is already common, or potentially in new regions, for example:
1.

A new population of pirates can be created by the collapse of law-enforcement in a newlyfailed state other countries along the east African coastline could potentially spawn
additional populations of pirates. Other parts of the world could suddenly see new pirate
populations if states within them fail.

2.

Economic alternatives could suddenly dry up, driving much larger populations to participate
in piracy. This could be the case if there is a lengthy economic downturn, widespread
austerity measures, or collapses in agricultural economies from drought or market failures.

3.

The incentives for piracy could increase the reward for a successful pirate action has
reportedly already risen from $150,000 in 2005 to over $4 million in 2010. If either the reward
levels or the success rates were to improve further in the pirates favour, this could drive a
step change in pirate activity.

4.

The suppression of pirate activity through patrols of navy ships could be reduced, for
example by a major geo-political conflict elsewhere that pulls naval power away from
policing commercial sea-lanes.

5.

Pirates may develop new techniques or improved equipment or weaponry that changes the
calculus of their risk in mounting attacks. As pirates generate economic rewards from
successful ransom payments they can afford better weaponry, manpower and equipment,
and as terrorist groups have shown, well-motivated individuals can be adept at innovating to
overcome the asymmetry of state security apparatus.

A number of these step-change drivers of increases in pirate activity would apply to multiple regions
where piracy is practiced. A period of worldwide economic austerity could affect marginal income
communities in every part of the least-developed world. A major geo-political conflict could distract
naval powers worldwide, enabling piracy to bloom wherever warships have been withdrawn from. A
clever new piracy technique developed in East Africa is likely to be rapidly copied by pirates in the
South China Sea and elsewhere.

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6.2.3

Limitations on pirate activity increases

Running counter to these drivers of step-change increases of pirate activity are practical
considerations that limit the rate of step-change in pirate activity. Expansion of pirate activity is
limited by the speed at which change can be effected. Constraints that limit just how much increase
could occur in one or two years include:
a.

Rapidly increasing the number of participants in pirate activity requires time for people to
move to the area, pass knowledge to each other, or to learn techniques

b.

Equipment availability needs time and logistics to acquire a greatly increased capability in
weaponry and boats

c.

Sailing vessels routes, practices and defensive measures also adapt to counter rising levels of
pirate activity. Ultimately if attack rates become too high, vessels will stop exposing
themselves to the threat and the increase will become self-limiting.

6.2.4

The 10X Threshold

The UN Conference for Trade and Development report sets out a cautionary vision of what the
consequences would be if piracy attacks [in Eastern Africa region] were to increase to a level ten times
greater than they are today. East Africa attacks in 2010 numbered just below 300, so this means a level
of 3,000 attacks in a single year.
An important analysis is whether the 1 in 100 probability of step change increase in piracy activity
could reach this order-of-magnitude escalation. The control process of piracy outlined above, with
limitations and self-limiting response by the vessels operators themselves suggests that it would be
extremely difficult to achieve a 10 times increase, and that this would be well beyond the 1 in 100
level that could be justified. Statistical analysis suggests that even the 1 in 1000 chance per year would
not get East Africa piracy rates to that 3000 event threshold.
6.2.5

The 1 in 100 Stress Test Scenario

The 1 in 100 probability of exceedance stress test scenario that is proposed for the piracy threat
category is for piracy rates to increase from the recent (2005 to 2010) global annual average of around
320 to a value of 1,000, i.e. around three times.
The achieve these levels, piracy would need to increase in all areas around the globe, but it will be
assumed that the large majority of the increased incidents are located in the region where growth is
fastest and most volatile i.e. in the oceans around the Horn of Africa. It will be assumed that a series
of events trigger a step-change in piracy, as outlined above.
6.2.6

The 1 in 1000 Stress Test Scenario

If a 1 in 1000 probability event is required, this could be taken to be an increase of five times the
recent global annual average, to a value of 1,600 events worldwide in a single year.

Piracy Stress Test Scenario

A series of events causes a step change in piracy activity worldwide, but driven by an escalation of
pirate attacks in the wider Horn of Africa region of East Africa, Indian Ocean, and the Arabian Sea. In
a single year, 1,000 pirate incidents are logged. 750 of these are in the Horn of Africa region. The
following events unfold to create the scenario.
The population of people prepared to engage in pirate activity in the coastal communities in Somalia
and neighboring low-income states is increased by migration to the coast from inland, bringing exwar lords from African conflicts. Economic hardship drives increasing numbers of previously lawabiding people into the semi-organized militia of the pirates.

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A well-publicized pirate hijacking of a large oil tanker is ransomed for an unprecedented $20 million.
The promise of this scale of rewards drives an increase in pirate activity, and more coordinated and
more ambitious attacks by the pirate organizations.
At the same time, a major conflict occurs in the Pacific ocean, drawing most of the navy vessels to that
theatre of operation, and reducing their abilities to police the commercial sea lanes and deter pirate
attacks.
Pirate attacks escalate. The Lloyds Market Association extends its designated war zone to the whole
of the East African ocean area. Marine insurance rates increase five-fold.
Commercial ship owners respond by re-routing away from the area and into deep ocean routes much
further from shore, traveling in convoys, and by employing private security protection.
The pirates develop techniques for carrying out attacks much further from land than previously
expected, and intercept commercial shipping in areas far out to sea. They employ heavy weaponry
and escalate the levels of violence. The geographical footprint of the areas of potential pirate attack is
much larger than previously observed.
Piracy revenues are used to fund militant Islamic terrorism and anti-Western activity in Africa, the
Middle East, and Western Europe.
The period of high piracy activity is sustained until military intervention by a NATO coalition
establishes a new government in Somalia, coupled with economic regeneration for East Africa.
Figure 7

Piracy Stress Test Scenario: Attack Zone Extent

Further reading

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Works on piracy abound, and range from fantasy fiction to serious analysis of the economic, social,
and political aspects of the phenomenon. The following represents a selection of recent analytical
work about current piracy.
Bendall, H.B.: Cost of Piracy: a Comparative Voyage Approach, IAME. Copenhagen, 2009.
Bowden, Anna et al: The Economic Cost of Maritime Piracy. One Earth Future, Working Paper,
December 2010.
Chalk, Peter & Smallman, Laurence (editors): Countering piracy in the modern era: notes from a RAND
workshop to discuss the best approaches for dealing with piracy in the 21st century. Conference
proceedings, Volume 269, Rand Corporation, 2009.
Eklf, Stefan: The return of piracy: decolonization and international relations in a maritime border
region (the Sulu Sea), 1959-63, Issue 15, Working papers in contemporary Asian studies,
Centre for East and South-East Asian Studies, Lund University, 2005.
IMB Piracy Reporting Centre BMP4, Best Management Practices for Protection against Somalia Based
Piracy: Suggested Planning and Operational Practices for Ship Operators, and Masters of Ships
Transiting the High Risk Area; Version 4 August 2011, ICC International Maritime Bureau.
http://www.icc-ccs.org/images/stories/pdfs/bmp4.pdf
Johnson, Derek & Valencia, Mark (editors): Piracy in Southeast Asia: status, issues, and responses.
Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2005.
Kraska, James & Wilson, Brian: Contemporary Maritime Piracy: International Law, Strategy, and
Diplomacy at Sea. ABC-CLIO, 2011.
Lehr, Peter: Violence at sea: piracy in the age of global terrorism. Psychology Press, 2007.
Liss, Carolin: Oceans of Crime: Maritime Piracy and Transnational Security in Southeast Asia and
Bangladesh. Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2011.
Marley, David F.: Modern Piracy: A Reference Handbook, ABC-CLIO, 2010.
Murphy, Martin N.: Contemporary piracy and maritime terrorism: the threat to international
security, Adelphi Papers, Volume 388, International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2007.
Murphy, Martin N.: Somalia, the new Barbary? Piracy and Islam in the Horn of Africa. Columbia
University Press, 2011.
Ong-Webb, Graham: Gerard Piracy, maritime terrorism and securing the Malacca Straits. Institute of
Southeast Asian Studies, 2006.
Parritt, B.A.H.: Violence at sea: a review of terrorism, acts of war and piracy, and countermeasures to
prevent terrorism, Volume 439, International Chamber of Commerce, 1986.
Payne, John C.: Piracy Today: Fighting Villainy on the High Seas, Sheridan House Inc, 2010.
Rosenberg, David: The political economy of piracy in the South China Sea. Naval War College Review,
Summer 2009, Vol. 62, No. 3.
Villar, Roger: Piracy today: robbery and violence at sea since 1980. Conway Maritime Press, 1985.
Wu, Shicun & Zou, Keyuan (editors): Maritime Security in the South China Sea: Regional Implications and
International Cooperation. Ashgate, 2009.
Young, Adam: Contemporary maritime piracy in SE Asia: history, causes and remedies. Singapore:
International Institute for Asian Studies, 2007.

Resource Index

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The major sources of information on piracy include:

The International Maritime Bureaus (www.icc-ccs.org/home/imb)

Piracy Reporting Centre (www.icc-ccs.org/piracy-reporting-centre)

The International Maritime Organization (www.imo.org),

UNCTAD, the UN Conference for Trade and Development (www.unctad.org).

RAND Corporation (www.rand.org) has worked occasionally for the U.S. government on
piracy issues.

Singapores Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (www.iseas.edu.sg) has worked

extensively on regional piracy issues

One Earth Future (http://oneearthfuture.org) has recently contributed to the growing

body of contemporary research on current international piracy issues.

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