Report Retail - McKinsey - 2015 - Perspectives On Retail and Consumer Goods

Perspectives on retail
and consumer goods

Number 4, Autumn 2015
Perspectives on retail and

consumer goods is written by
experts and practitioners in
McKinsey & Companys Retail
and Consumer Packaged
Goods practices, along with
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Table of contents
4
Modern grocery and

the emerging-market
consumer: A complicated
courtship
In some emerging markets,
the response to modern
grocery formats has been
tepid. Whats a modern
grocer to do?
12
Amazon Chinas president

on transformative
technologies
Doug Gurr reflects on how
China differs from Western
markets and what role data
informatics will play in the
future of retail.
32
Secrets to implementation
success
What do successful
implementers do differently
from other companies?
Our survey of more than
2,200 executives yields
actionable answers.
16
Winning in Africas
consumer market
For consumer-goods
companies, Africa holds
much promisebut also
many pitfalls. To succeed on
the continent, companies
must learn from the failures
and successes of others.
38
Getting the most out

of your sustainability
program
Sustainability initiatives wont
create lasting value if theyre
poorly managed. Here are
four lessons from companies
that are doing it right.
28
Becoming a regional
powerhouse in food
retailing
Croatian conglomerate
Agrokor is the top grocery
player in five countries. In
this interview, the companys
head of retail reflects on the
rewards and challenges of
cross-border growth.
44
Smarter schedules, better

budgets: How to improve
store operations
Through activity-based
labor scheduling and
budgeting, retailers can cut
store labor costs by up to
12 percent while improving
both customer service and
employee satisfaction.
50
Is your company a
value creator or a value
destroyer?
By looking at performance
through the lens of economic
profit, retailers can better
understand the effectiveness
of their business strategies.
ALSO IN THIS ISSUE

22
East Africa: The next hub

for apparel sourcing?
East African countries
in particular, Ethiopia and
Kenyahave the potential
to become bigger players in
garment manufacturing. But
the road ahead wont be easy.
55
Growth in the packagedfood industry

The drivers of revenue growth
are investment in the right
markets, M&A skills, and
a pragmatic approach
to execution.
58
Contributors
60
Regional contacts
Foreword
I hope you had a great summer and enjoyed some

time with family and friends. It seems 2015 is
shaping up to be another busy and successful year for
many of you. Consumer sentiment is on the upswing
in many European countries, the US economy is
gaining traction, and in general the outlook for
developed economies is positive. On the other
hand, Chinas growth momentum is slowing, while
Russia and other oil-rich countries continue to face
challenges. Consumer-goods and retail executives
certainly have more than enough to think about
when it comes to managing the day-to-day business
and the annual budget.
Yet Im sure most of you are already thinking ahead.
What will the worldand the consumer sector in
particularlook like in 5 or 15 years? We read news
reports about Alibabas rapid rise to become one
of the worlds most valuable companies, the strong
growth of e-commerce players Amazon and Zalando,
Google and Teslas efforts to develop self-driving
cars, and other potentially game-changing and
paradigm-shifting events. What are the implications
for the consumer sector as a whole, for specific
product categories, and for your company?
For example, will consumer and retail companies

continue to manage IT as a cost line, with a focus
on efficiency, or will technology become the most
important competitive advantage? Will our largest
markets be the same ones as today, or will the
majority of our sales come from regions in Brazil or
China that some of us havent even heard of yet? Will
retailers and consumer-goods companies remain
distinct from each other, or will they become fully
integrated direct-to-consumer companies (which is
already starting to happen in the apparel industry)?
No one can predict what will happen in 2020 or 2030.
But I believe that consumers and our industry will
change more dramatically than ever; business will
be fundamentally different. These developments can
be exciting and energizing, rather than a cause for
sleepless nights.
Management is all about finding the right balance
between addressing short-term business needs and
opportunities and setting a long-term direction for
the future. One of my colleagues calls it having a
microscope for the daily business and a periscope
for future direction setting. In this edition of our
journal, we tackle both elementsthe first half

focuses on emerging markets and the second half
on concrete business levers such as labor scheduling
and implementation excellence. One highlight of
this edition is an interview with Doug Gurr, Amazon
Chinas president, whose insights on what the future
might look like were an eye-opener for me.
I hope you, too, find each of the articles in this
edition more than worth your time. Enjoy!
Jrn Kpper
Director, Cologne
This edition of Perspectives on retail and consumer

goods is available on mckinsey.com in several digital
formats: HTML, PDF, and e-book (for iPad, Kindle,
Sony Reader, and other devices). Each article is
also available on the McKinsey Insights app. We
welcome your thoughts and reactions; e-mail us
at [email protected].
Keiko Morimoto
Modern grocery and the

emerging-market consumer:
A complicated courtship
In some emerging markets, the response to modern grocery formats has been tepid.
Whats a modern grocer to do?
Peter Child, Thomas Kilroy, and James Naylor
Just 20 years ago, modern grocery retail appeared
poised to conquer every consumer market in the world.
Ambitious European grocers, having blanketed their
home countries with supermarkets and hypermarkets,
began setting their sights on growth both within and
beyond the continent. They held particularly high hopes
for China, India, and other emerging markets, where
fast-rising consumer spending seemed to presage an
unprecedented demand for gleaming new stores with
large assortments, wide aisles, and bright lighting.
In the 1990s, the term modern grocery retail was
essentially a proxy for a small group of multinational
grocers including Ahold, Aldi, Auchan, Carrefour,
Costco, Lidl, Metro, Tesco, and Walmart. It was
widely presumed that these retailers entry into any
market would lead to the demise of the traditional
4
Perspectives on retail and consumer goods Autumn 2015
tradethe family-owned grocery chains, small

independent stores, and informal merchants that at
the time accounted for the vast majority of grocery
sales in emerging markets. The prevailing expectation
was that although there would be local differences
due to cultural specificities, in every country the retail
landscape would eventually consist of a combination
of modern formats: full-line supermarkets and
hypermarkets, convenience stores, and discounters.
These assumptions have been proved wrong. Global
grocery giants are struggling to grow profitably
in many emerging markets. Traditional trade has
proved remarkably resilient. And the market and
channel structures taking shape in individual
emerging economies are distinct from one another,
following no obvious pattern.
Why did this happen? What, if anything, did

multinational grocers do wrong? And what
does it mean for the future of modern retail in
emerging markets?
The hypermarkets shortcomings

To understand the disparity between early
expectations and the current reality, its useful
to examine the roots of the two quintessential
modern-trade formats: the supermarket and the
hypermarket. The hypermarket in particular
whether in its European form (in which food anchors
a massive selection of nonfood items) or its North
American one (the supercenter, which represents
the successful injection of food and grocery into
a general-merchandise discount store)was
widely regarded as unbeatable. By offering tens
of thousands of products in an immense building
just outside or on the edge of a town or city, a
hypermarket could operate at a level of productivity
that other grocery formats struggled to match.
Hypermarket operators passed on these efficiency
gains to consumers in the form of lower prices,
which served to reinforce hypermarkets advantage.
In their first forays into other developed markets
abroad, major retailers relied heavily on the
hypermarket format. When French retailers Auchan,
Carrefour, and Promods opened hypermarkets in
Spain during the first years of Spanish economic
reform, they quickly captured a large fraction of
that countrys overall grocery sales and dictated the
market structure that remains in place to this day.
Expansion across Europe was an exciting growth
prospect, but even more enticing to retail leaders
and investors was the growth potential of emerging
markets. Over the years, that potential has become
even clearer: by 2025, we expect emerging markets
to account for $30 trillion in consumer spending, or
nearly half of global consumption.1
When multinational grocers entered emerging markets,
they again relied on the grocery formats that were
working so well in the developed world. But, in

retrospect, its clear that the countries in which the
hypermarket prospered had several characteristics
in common: good road networks and high or fastrising car-ownership rates, a large middle class that
enjoyed decent wages and stable employment, and a
high proportion of rural and suburban households
with enough room at home to store groceries bought
in bulk. Also, those markets had grown to maturity
at a time when many women didnt return to work
after having children and therefore had time
during the day to drive to and from the store. The
hypermarket format draws heavily on consumers
time, ability to travel, and storage capacity.
In emerging markets, retailers encountered an
entirely different context. Consumers were less
affluent and lived in urban areas; many didnt own a
car, couldnt afford to travel to and from a relatively
far shopping destination, had no room at home to
store purchases, or all of the above.
A new respect for localism

Further complicating matters, emerging markets
werent just different from developed markets;
emerging markets also differed from one another
in nontrivial ways. That was true in the 1990s
and it remains true today. Based on our research
which involved in-depth study of the retail sector
in ten developing countries in Asia, Eastern
Europe, and Latin America, as well as interviews
with more than 20 local retail and consumer
experts and analysis of channel-growth data in
these marketsweve developed a perspective
on the factors that have hampered the growth
of modern trade in emerging markets.
On both the demand side (what customers want from
retailers) and the supply side (the means by which
retailers can deliver what customers want), different
factors shape the retail ecosystem in each country.
Together, these factors produce wide variability in
the level of modern-trade development in countries
around the world (Exhibit 1).
Modern grocery and the emerging-market consumer: A complicated courtship
PoRCG_4_2015
Modern grocery and the emerging-market consumer
Exhibit 1 of 2
Exhibit 1
Modern-trade penetration and growth vary widely by market.

Size of grocery market, $ billion
689
295
Modern-grocery penetration, 2014, %
90
Germany
80
Spain
Italy
70
Poland
China
($689 billion)
Russia
60
50
Brazil
Ecuador
($8 billion)
Mexico
Thailand
Colombia
40
Turkey
30
Peru
20
Indonesia
Vietnam
10
India
($295 billion)
0
1
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Growth in penetration, 200914, percentage points

Source: Euromonitor International; McKinsey analysis
On the demand side, for instance, food-shopping

habits have turned out to be largely localized and
deeply entrenched. Emerging-market consumers
tend to prepare their own meals and cook more
than their peers in developed markets do, and
they are accustomed to shopping at open-air
market stands or small neighborhood grocery
stores that offer a familiar selection of fresh food
and household staples. They dont necessarily
perceive customer service at modern retailers
as superior to that of the traditional trade.
Customers of Indias kirana storessmall, familyowned retail shops in or near residential areas
already benefit from personal service from the
6
store owner, free home delivery, and credit

and cash rebates if they remain loyal.
On the supply side, a big factor is the informality
of traditional trade: many small retail businesses
rely on unpaid labor from family and friends, pay
no rent because they own their storefronts, and
dont pay corporate taxes. Modern retailers cite this
informality as a major challenge when competing
with local retailers. A European hypermarket chain
found that its considerable operating-cost advantage
from better sourcing and supply-chain processes
was canceled out by the fact that it was paying taxes
while local competitors were not.
Another major factor affecting modern trade is

public policy. Indias restrictions on foreign direct
investment have limited the growth of modern retail
there; in China, by contrast, city governments are
assessed on the level of economic activity and foreign
investment they attract, which makes them biased
toward supporting modern trade. As a result, moderntrade penetration in Chinas largest cities has grown
significantly over the past 15 years.
A further supply-side factor in emerging markets is the
fragmented supplier base, which places a natural limit
on the benefits of scale. A retailer cant source products
as efficiently as it would in a mature market because it
must buy from a complex network of regional and local
entities. And even retailers with a national buying
team wont easily find national manufacturers who are
eager to partner with thema point we pick up on later.
Incumbent advantage is yet another powerful factor
shaping retail ecosystems. Todays market dynamics
tend to become tomorrows market structureso,
for example, in markets in which a highly efficient
wholesale system serves the traditional trade, it
becomes much harder for modern grocers to
gain a foothold. That said, wholesalers can also
be vanguards of modernization. In Turkey, for
instance, some Bizim Toptan stores have developed
a substantial retail business. These wholesalerscum-retailers illustrate the fact that ecosystems in
emerging markets are partly shaped by players that
can concentrate and coordinate a critical mass of
what otherwise is a complex set of routes to market.
Seven strategic levers for success

In parts of the world where the market structure
is itself still in a formative stage, retailers need a
bespoke strategy. Our research and experience
suggest seven strategic levers that lead to success
in emerging markets. These levershaving to do
with delivering what consumers want, working
effectively with other players in the ecosystem, and
generating lasting productivity advantagesreflect
perennial concerns for retailers everywhere, but
they are especially critical in helping retailers

secure a profitable future in the worlds fastestgrowing economies (see sidebar, Questions to test
your emerging-market strategy).
The levers are by no means comprehensive. For one,
they dont touch on digital technology, which may
well be just as important in emerging markets as in
developed ones; indeed, rapid adoption of smartphone
technology may allow emerging markets to leapfrog
more mature markets and reconfigure the value chain
farther upstream (for example, by giving smaller
suppliers direct access to national and even global
markets). Rather, we draw attention to areas that we
believe require deliberate action in emerging markets.
1. Prioritize proximity.
Urban consumers with limited budgets and smaller
homes often prefer to buy small amounts frequently,
both for immediate consumption and for stocking up.
And where trading space is constrained, proximity
formats offer a more realistic prospect of economic
returns for the retailer. Modern retailers can benefit
from their experience operating smaller urban
formats in developed marketsbanners such as
Albert Heijns AH to Go in the Netherlands or Tesco
Express and Sainsburys Local in the United Kingdom.
One market in which small-format stores have been
the major driver of modern-trade development is
Indonesia. Sales through the convenience-store
channel are growing at a rate of more than 25 percent
per year across the country. In fact, the increasing
dominance of convenience stores, known locally as
mini-marts, has led to a contraction in the number
of supermarkets and hypermarkets. The mini-mart
chains mimic warungs, which are small family-owned
retail or restaurant businesses that play a central role
in Indonesian social life. Although the mini-marts
are run by modern retailersin addition to leading
national chains Alfamart and Indomaret, international
players such as Circle K and 7-Eleven have moved
into the marketthe customers experience in minimarts is not so different from that in warungs.
Questions to test your emerging-market strategy

Proximity
Do you have a clearly defined smallstore format?
Have you built capabilities for local
assortment tailoring?
Do you have a nimble supply chain
one that can make small, frequent
deliveries to stores with limited
stockroom space?
What is your property-acquisition plan
for building a small-store portfolio?
For example, have you identified
independent businesses you could
acquire or partner with?
Pricing
How good is your price perception
among consumers? Are you the
acknowledged price leader in
the market?
Whats driving price perception?
Do you know what your key
value items are? How well do you
compete on basket prices for your
main customer segments?
Is your pricing philosophy

understood by customers and
evident in your stores day after
day, week after week?
Productivity
If local labor costs were to rise
by 10 percent, would you still
be profitable?
W
ho in your organization is
championing process improvement
and labor efficiency?
Manufacturer relations
D o you understand the cost
structure and profitability of
your major suppliers?
W
ho are your most important
suppliers for present and
future growth?
H
ow should you propose sharing
the proceeds of growth?
Government affairs
How broad and deep is your network
in and around government?
2. Keep prices lowand make sure consumers know.

The prediction that emerging-market consumers
would initially shop at discounters and then
graduate to supermarkets hasnt come true.
Discounters, or retailers that exhibit at least three
of four core discounter characteristicslow prices,
limited range, low-cost store retrofits, and ultrasimple operationshave more than held their
8
Do you understand policy

makers concerns, and have you
communicated yours?
W ho on your team is in charge
of government relations? Are the
primary objectives clear?
Traditional-trade partnerships
How well do you understand the
existing traditional-trade structure?
W ho are the best traditional-trade
players, and what can you learn
from them?
Are there opportunities to build your
retail brand through franchising, supply
agreements, or earn-out acquisitions?
City-based growth
Do your growth plans match the
projected growth of cities and metro
areas in your principal markets?
Have you tailored your route-tomarket and commercial models
to each of your prioritized cities
or city clusters?
own against supermarkets. In Turkey, for example,

discount stores are a fast-growing channel, largely
due to the success of local companies such as A101,
BIM, and ok (Exhibit 2).
Perhaps the success of discounters shouldnt be
so surprising, given the stature they enjoy even in
one of the largest and richest retail markets in the
PoRCG_4_2015
Modern grocery and the emerging-market consumer
Exhibit 2 of 2
Exhibit 2
The channel structure in Turkish retail is changing rapidly.

CAGR, 2
201318, %
Grocery retail by channel,

%1
100% =
143
billion3
5.3
177
billion
229
billion
21.4
22.5
Supermarkets
6.4
3.6
Hypermarkets
1.1
18.1
Discounters
16.8
Forecourts
10.4
Convenience stores
24.5
15.0
1.6
1.0
0.2
2.2
3.3
10.8
80.1
1.3
1.2
61.9
1.7
3.3
50.8
2006
2013
Mom-and-pop stores
0.8
2018E
1Figures
may not sum to 100%, because of rounding.

annual growth rate.
3As of Aug 2015, $1.0 = 2.8.
2Compound
Source: Euromonitor International; McKinsey analysis
world: Germany. Low-price stores can establish

a dominant position in markets that are going
through rapid increases in disposable income
(as was the case, of course, in postwar West
Germany). When the first modern-trade stores
to open in a market are discounters, they can set
price expectations permanently.
Other modern formats can also compete on price, but
they have to work harder to get consumers to notice.
Our research suggests most modern retailers dont
get full credit for the value they offer. This is the case
with Indonesias hypermarkets, which typically are
cheaper places to shop than warungs but havent been
able to convey that message to enough consumers.

Some common modern-trade practices such as high/
low pricing can actually undermine a retailers value
message. In Peru, where bodegas and market stands
account for some 80 percent of grocery sales, we
found that modern retailersdespite often having
lower full-basket prices than traditional retailers
nevertheless lag behind traditional retailers by
more than 15 percentage points in consumer
perception of low prices.
3. Obsess over productivity.
In markets where labor costs are low, it can be difficult
to retain a relentless focus on productivity. But wages
are rising fast in emerging markets and bad habits are

notoriously hard to unlearn. Retailers that have been
obsessed with productivity have achieved striking
results. BIMs decisions on new-store openings in
Turkey are driven as much by logistics-network
optimization as by local demand attractiveness. BIM
follows a mushroom expansion model: it grows
to high density in specific neighborhoods within
a city, using retail formats that require low capital
expenditures. The high density of deliveries has
allowed it to solve the small-format logistics puzzle
that has tripped up many big-box players.
Corporacin Favorita in Ecuador offers another
example of operational excellence: its just-in-time
inventory model of daily deliveries essentially
eliminates backroom stock. To ensure full control
of store operations, it eschews direct store delivery,
managing all flows through its central warehouses.
This focus on operations has enabled the company to
successfully manage a complex format portfolio.
4. Make the business case to manufacturers.
A rarely discussed obstacle to the expansion of
modern trade in emerging markets is the fact
that established manufacturers dont have much
incentive to do business with modern retailers.
Branded manufacturers enjoy high margins
supplying small shopkeepers, who have little
negotiating leverage. Why would they want to
jeopardize that business in favor of modern-trade
retailers with initially limited volumes and terms
that are often less vendor friendly (especially if the
retailer is a subsidiary of a global company)?
To woo major manufacturers, modern retailers may
need approaches that are as creative, collaborative,
and mutually beneficial as those they employ in
developed markets. One argument full-line modern
retailers can make is that branded manufacturers
ought to support them rather than discounters.
After all, in markets where discounters dominate,
consumers can shift en masse away from branded
products toward private-label goods.
10
5. Educate policy makers on the benefits of

modern trade.
As mentioned earlier, government intervention can
play a critical role in how, and how quickly, modern
trade develops. In China, the strong central mandate
to provincial and municipal authorities to create the
necessary infrastructure for modern retailersnot
just thousands of miles of new roads, but also urban
planning that integrates modern-trade requirements
into traffic patterns and real-estate zoninghas
yielded extraordinarily rapid development.
Modern-trade players would do well to communicate
the benefits of modern retail to government officials.
They could, for instance, make a strong case that
modern retailers can do a better job than traditional
trade in providing safe and cheap access to highquality food and household goods.
6. Consider partnering with the traditional trade.
One growth strategy for modern-trade players
involves partnership withrather than competition
againstthe traditional trade. The strategy has clear
advantages: it allows a modern retailer to leverage the
network and personalized service of the traditional
trade while minimizing capital investment.
Eurocash in Poland is an example. Although its
cash-and-carry stores and distribution centers
play a wholesaler role, Eurocash also welcomes
traditional-trade retailers as franchisees under
its abc convenience-store banner (approximately
6,000 stores) and its Delikatesy Centrum banner
(approximately 1,000 stores). This franchising
approach has allowed Eurocash to grow quickly
and profitably. Another example of partnership
with the traditional trade comes from Grupo xito
in Colombia: small retailers that join its Aliados
Surtimax network receive Surtimax signage and
fixtures, access to Grupo xitos portfolio of private
brands, and business and management training.
Grupo xito has rapidly built a network of more than
500 stores at an extremely low capital-expenditure
rate of less than $500 per store.
7. Adopt a city-based strategy.

When a market is in a relatively early state of
modern-trade development, national borders
can be unhelpful in scoping and designing a retail
network. Rather, retailers should concentrate
on getting to scale in cities or city clusters. 2
Thus, Supermercados Guanabara, the market
leader in Rio de Janeiro, has confined itself to
the metropolitan area and operates just
23 storesyet it outperforms formidable
competitors, including Carrefour and Walmart.
In China, some retailers have chosen to concentrate
first on one city or city cluster, be it Shanghai or
Shenyang, before expanding nationally. Similarly,
modernization in Indias retail sector will most likely
happen through a series of players expanding in
individual cities and states, rather than through a
big bang national expansion plan.3
For any modern retailer, success in emerging

markets isnt guaranteed. Our research confirms
the complexity and local specificity of market
development and the degree to which it depends
on initiatives taken not just by retailers but also

by governments, manufacturers, wholesalers, and
others in the local retail ecosystem. International
retailers thus need to become experts at local
tailoring. That said, operating in emerging markets
still unquestionably requires excellence in core
retailing competencies: marketing, merchandising,
supply-chain management, and talent development,
to name just a few. Retailers that excel in all
these areas in the context of markedly different
emerging-market structures will, in a sense, have
conquered the world.
1 See the compendium Winning the $30 trillion decathlon: Going
for gold in emerging markets, August 2012, mckinsey.com.

2 For more on how to develop a city-based strategy, see Udo
Kopka, Stefan Rickert, and Markus Schmid, Pinpointing the

markets with the highest growth potential, Perspectives on
retail and consumer goods, Winter 2013/14, mckinsey.com.
3 For more on growth opportunities in India, see Understanding
Indias economic geography, October 2014, mckinsey.com.
Peter Child is a director in McKinseys Hong Kong office,

Thomas Kilroy is a principal in the Chicago office, and
James Naylor is a senior expert in the London office.
Copyright 2015 McKinsey & Company.
All rights reserved.
11
Amazon Chinas president on

transformative technologies
Doug Gurr reflects on how China differs from Western markets and what role data informatics will play
in the future of retail.
James Naylor
Doug Gurr had been a global vice president
at e-commerce giant Amazon for less than
three years when he was asked to take on a new
challenge: lead the companys efforts in the fastgrowing, hypercompetitive Chinese market.
In September 2014, Gurr relocated to Beijing
from his home in the United Kingdom. Today,
he is in charge of an operation that employs
approximately 5,500 people.
Gurr recently spoke with McKinseys James
Naylor. Excerpts of the conversation follow.
McKinsey: During your entire retail career,
youve championed investments in technology
and innovation. Are you finding the technology
in China to be different from what we see in
more developed markets?
Doug Gurr: Yes. The technology in China
is phenomenal. You can see multiple ways
in which the country is leapfrogging. For
example, theres not much of an established
physical retail infrastructure, so people
are going directly to a purely online world.
They dont go to a physical store at all
they simply look online and then purchase.
If you talk to a group of Chinese women
between the ages of 20 and 25 and ask them
where they shop, theyll just look at you
like youre a bit stupid. Ive never been to
a store. Sure, I buy fresh food at stores
but for anything other than that, why would
12
I ever go to a store? The world in which

consumers get their insight and information
exclusively online is very different. Social
shopping, for instance, is an enormous
phenomenon in Asia.
Already, 4 of the 15 largest Internet businesses
by market cap are Chinese. The pace of
innovation and the quality of the mobile
experience in China in many ways far
outstrips what you see in the West; its
gone down a divergent path. Again, theres
a lack of physical infrastructure, so in areas
like banking China is leapfrogginggoing
directly from cash to pure mobile e-banking.
Another example of leapfrogging is the use
of geolocation. Theres very little mapping
in China, and there are many areas with
no street addresses, but China has solved
these logistics problems with geolocation.
You wouldnt have thought youd see bicycle
rickshaws with better point-to-point geolocation
and better GPS-enabled devices than you
see anywhere else in the world. Its amazing
and excitingtheres a blend of rough, oldfashioned ways of doing things coupled
with technology that is way ahead in terms
of the use of data informatics.
McKinsey: Do you think the rest of the retail
world will eventually look like China? In other
words, will physical retail become irrelevant
everywhere? What do you think will happen

to the retail value chain?
Doug Gurr: One of the megatrends of the
next five to ten years will be e-commerce
moving from a primarily national to an
international business. Thats where a lot of
the energy in China is going. Its about refining
the answer to a simple question: What is a
retailer for? The job of a retailer is to connect
a product anywhere in the world to a customer
anywhere in the worldto provide that customer
with the best information to aid discoverability
and guide purchase decisionsand to do it
with as little friction and as quickly and cheaply
as possible.
No one is saying that physical retail will disappear.
Physical space is a fantastic way of discovering
products. But its also time consuming and
expensive compared with a truly optimized,
truly evolved digital-discovery experience. So I
think there will be a role for physical stores, but
I wouldnt be too sanguine that such and such a
format will necessarily survive forever.
McKinsey: Say more about e-commerce moving
from a national to an international business.
What are some things Amazon China is doing
on that front?
Doug Gurr: Our primary focus is on cross-border
e-commerce. We already do a pretty good job
of helping Chinese businesses sell around the
world; we want to do an equally good job of
helping Western and Japanese businesses meet
the growing demand from Chinese consumers for
high-quality, authentic international products.
We know the demand is there and that many
international brands would love to sell in China
but find it challenging to navigate the Chinese
e-commerce landscape. To that end, weve
launched a number of new services. One is the
Amazon Global Store. We provide translation,
Amazon Chinas president on transformative technologies
listing, regulatory compliance, local-language

customer support, local marketing, global
logistics, and so on, so that brands can launch
in China with no more effort than selling in their
local market.
In just six months weve been able to launch over
three million unique products for our brands,
with no cost or effort on their partliterally with
the click of a button. Were rapidly expanding this
and other services, and were starting to explore
partnerships with many brandsUS, European,
and Japanesethat are interested in the complex
but compelling opportunity presented by the
Chinese consumer.
McKinsey: What role do you think robotics,
automation, and technology in general will
play in the future of the retail industry?
Doug Gurr: Its transformative. You can take a
view of retail organizations as decision-making
machines. We have to make hundreds of millions,
even billions, of decisions every day. How much
do I price? Is this product safe? How much
inventory should I hold at a particular location,
at a particular store, at a particular moment
of time? When should I replenish?
You read a lot about whether machines are better
at making decisions than people are. I think
its kind of irrelevant unless the machines are
materially worse at it, which theyre not. The point
of giving the decisions to machines is that you
have scale. If you put human beings in the middle
of every decision, you slow down. I used to work
for a physical grocer, and every morning wed
argue about how much bananas were going to be
that week. Today, its unimaginable for me to
spend time setting prices.
Retailers need to understand a whole bunch
of new tools and technologies. Of course, theyre
not perfect; were at an early stage of these
13
Doug Gurr
Vital statistics
Born in Leeds, United Kingdom
Blueheath
(200106)
CEO
Married, with 2 children

Education
Holds bachelors and masters

degrees in mathematics from
University of Cambridge
Holds a PhD in theoretical computing
from University of Edinburgh
McKinsey
(19952001)
Partner
Fast facts
Speaks French and elementary

Mandarin
Served as chairman (201014)
and member (200310) of board
of trustees of Science Museum
in London
Career highlights
Amazon
(2014present)
President, Amazon China
Is chairman-elect of British
Heart Foundation
(201114)
Vice president
Has completed 12 Ironman triathlons

Asda
(200611)
Executive development director
technologies. For example, weve all received those

personalized marketing e-mails that arent quite
right: My dog died, so dont send me e-mails
promoting dog food. Or, I already bought a TV;
please stop telling me to buy another one. Theres
a lot of clunkiness because weve only been in this
game for a few years and were not yet very good
at it. But personalization is so powerful that even
at this early stage, if you compare a machinebased process with a pretty refined state-of-theart manual process, technology wins every single
timeand not by a slim margin.
14
I like to say that the only things people

should do are things that only people can
dothat is, making complex decisions that
cant be automated because theyre high
uncertainty, theyre hard to reverse, theres
not enough data, or theyre judgment calls.
That does two things for you. First, it allows
decision making at genuine scale. Second,
it makes jobs more interesting for people.
My personal view is that the transformative
technology of the early 21st century will
be data informatics, and I think it will

happen much faster than most people
assume. Its a classic distinctive capability.
I think in ten years time, in any business
sector, the performance gap between an
organization that invests in data informatics
and one that doesnt will be huge. I would
argue that the performance gap is already
substantial, and its only going to get bigger.
Amazon Chinas president on transformative technologies
James Naylor is a senior expert in McKinseys

London office.
15
Keiko Morimoto
Winning in Africas consumer market

For consumer-goods companies, Africa holds much promisebut also many pitfalls. To succeed on the
continent, companies must learn from the failures and successes of others.
Yaw Agyenim-Boateng, Richard Benson-Armer, and Bill Russo
Over the past few years, business leaders and investors
have become increasingly aware of the vast potential in
Africas burgeoning consumer market. The continent,
now home to more than 1.1 billion people, will account
for one-fifth of the worlds population by 2025. More
and more Africans are entering the consumer class, with
tens of millions emerging from poverty in recent years.
By 2025, nearly two-thirds of the estimated 303 million

African households will have discretionary income.
This massive expansion of the consumer poolan
addition of almost 90 million consumers in just ten
yearswill help fuel the continents GDP growth from
4.9 percent today to 6.2 percent in the next decade, far
outpacing the global GDP growth rate of 3.7 percent.1
Yet there are well-known deterrents to doing business

in Africapolitical instability and poor infrastructure,
to name just twothat can make companies
hesitant to enter the market at all. That said, a few
multinational consumer-packaged-goods (CPG)
companies have managed to make important inroads
in Africa. Their experience holds valuable lessons for
others aspiring to capture the opportunities in one of
the worlds fastest-growing consumer markets.
Whats more, African consumers are young and

willing to spend. Fifty-three percent of income
earners in Africa are between 16 and 34 years
oldan age group that tends to be more aware of
and eager to try new products. These consumers
will contribute to more than $400 billion in total
consumption growth in the next decade.
Young, urban, connected

The working-age population in Africa is growing at a
clip of 2.7 percent each year (compared with 1.3 percent
in Latin America and 1.2 percent in Southeast Asia).
16
Driving this rapid growth are two trends that will

continue to have a tremendous impact on Africas
consumer market: urbanization and the rise of mobile
communications. By 2025, almost half of Africans
will be living in cities. Africa already has as many
cities with more than one million inhabitants as
North America does (Exhibit 1). In the largest African

cities, consumption growth can rival even that of
major cities in Brazil, Russia, India, or China: for
example, between 2010 and 2020, incremental
growth in food and beverage sales in Cairo will total
approximately $3.9 billion, compared with $3.7 billion
in Braslia and $3.3 billion in Delhi. This concentration
of consumers bodes well for CPG companies that can
secure distribution in these fast-growing cities.
Mobile technology is also changing the game. Mobile
penetration in Africa, estimated at 89 percent at
the end of 2014,2 is nevertheless growing fast and
enabling transactions such as money transfers and
microfinance. Kenyas mobile-payments platforms,
for instance, handled more than $2 billion per
month2015
in transactions in 2013.
CDP

The challenges
Exhibit
1 of 2
But just as the potential of Africa has been widely
acknowledged, so too have the perils of doing business
there. Despite recent progress, several hurdles remain.
Exhibit 1
Political instability and conflict. Wars

and authoritarian governments continue to
adversely affect business and policy in many
countries. According to world freedom indexes,
which measure political and civil liberties, of
54 African nations only 10 are considered free,
22 are considered partially free, and 22 are
considered not free.3
Poor infrastructure. Although many African cities
now have modern road systems, only
about one-third of Africans live within two
kilometers of a paved road that is usable yearround. 4 Travel within the continent is prohibitively
expensive and difficult, with transportation
costs five to eight times that in markets such
as Brazil or Vietnam. About 70 percent of the
population has no access to electricity. These
problems constrain not just consumer demand
but supply as well; ports in many African
nations are characterized by capacity issues
and high costs.
Africa has as many cities of at least one million people as North America.
Share of rural vs urban population by region, 2012, %
1,057 million
4,104 million
895 million
27
Rural
60
Number of cities with

>1 million people
349 million
21
18
79
82
54
73
Urban
597 million
40
46
Africa
Asia
Europe
Latin America
North America
57
319
106
68
58
Source: United Nations; McKinsey Global Institute
17
Linguistic diversity. To communicate effectively

with African consumers, companies need to deliver
their marketing messages in a plethora of languages.
South Africa has 11 official languages. Nigeria has
only 1Englishbut Nigerians speak more than
500 local languages. Further complicating consumer
communications is the continents low literacy rate
of 62 percent. In some countries, including Burkina
Faso and Niger, the literacy rate is below 30 percent.
Differences in consumer behavior. Not only do
Africans in different countries speak different
languages; they also make buying decisions
differently. Take price sensitivity, for example: most
Angolans look at advertisements and comparison
shop to get the best prices, but only 27 percent of
Kenyans do the same. Opinions about brands differ
by country and region as well.5
A fragmented retail market. Africans buy
groceries primarily from neighborhood kiosks
or independently owned convenience stores; in many
countries, the percentage of groceries bought in
supermarkets is in the low single digits. An exception
is South Africa, where supermarkets account for an
estimated 75 percent of grocery sales.6
Low data availability and quality. Historically,
theres been a dearth of economic data and market
research about most parts of the continent except
for the largest cities. Companies sometimes
extrapolate existing data on big cities to the national
or regional level, but such an exercise only yields
inaccurate insights.
Lessons learned
In spite of these serious challenges, pioneering
companies have been able to make Africa a part
of their success story. More than 400 companies
generate at least $1 billion in Africa-based revenues.
Coca-Cola, Nestl, and Unilever, among others,
have been on the continent for decades and enjoy
significant market share in their categories; P&G
has increased its African business more than tenfold
18
in the past ten years. In our experience, consumer

companies that win in Africa are those that heed the
following four imperatives.
Take a granular view of growth
The most successful entrants into Africa are those
that have been careful and selective about the markets
they enter. Instead of seeking to build a presence
across entire countries, theyve targeted the fastestgrowing cities or city clustersurban centers where
per capita income and consumption spending far
exceed the national average. Per capita income in
Nairobi, for instance, is three times that in Kenya;
Lagos residents on average earn twice as much as
Nigerians overall. The capital city of Luanda accounts
for 45 percent of total consumption in Angola. In
2025, almost 60 percent of consumption spending in
Africa will come from the 20 largest cities.
A city-based strategy is essential in Africa, given
the rapid pace of urbanization and the differences
in growth rates even among cities within the same
country. But choosing the highest-potential cities is
just one part of the puzzle; getting the timing right
is another. Leading companies develop fact-based
forecasts of the readiness of markets for specific
product categories.
Consumer demand for a particular product or
category typically follows an S-curve, with per capita
income as the main variable. Exhibit 2 shows that
mens grooming products (such as razors and blades),
for instance, are already in the hot zonewhere
penetration growth accelerates significantlyin
many African cities. To be able to predict when
consumer demand for a category will take off, a
company must have a granular understanding of
economic indicators, local-market trends, and
statistical growth models.
A global packaged-food manufacturer started with
a broad strategy but has since narrowed its focus to
15 cities that collectively represent about 25 percent
of the total growth in packaged-food sales expected
CDP 2015
Exhibit 2 of 2
Exhibit 2
Some African cities are already in the hot zone for certain consumer-goods categories.
Category penetration for mens grooming products relative to GDP
per capita, 2013
Regression line
Country
City
Log sales per capita, real $

Warm-up zone
Hot zone
Chill-out zone
1,000
100
Morocco
Algeria
Egypt
10
Philippines
1
Nigeria
Pakistan
Mexico
Durban
China
India
South Africa
Argentina
Brazil
Poland
Ibadan
New Zealand
United Kingdom
United States
United Arab
Emirates
Japan
Cape
Town
Pretoria
Benin
City
Lagos
Germany
Port Harcourt
Johannesburg
0.1
6,000
Axis reference
points in absolute $
Growth multipliers1
1Average
28,000
Log GDP per capita, real $
0.18
0.84
0.11
% increase in category penetration from a 1% increase in GDP per capita, corrected for country fixed effects.
Source: McKinsey analysis
across Africa in the next five years. The company

analyzed several subcategories and found, for
example, that in nonalcoholic beverages, ten cities
in five countries will contribute 25 percent of total
growth, while in the dairy category, ten cities in six
countries will contribute 23 percent of the growth.
Such insights enabled the company to allocate
resources to the most promising opportunities.
Tailor the offer to local needs and preferences
Companies must seek to understand local needs
and preferences that drive mass adoption of their
products, then tailor their offers accordingly. P&G
changed the formulation of its Ariel detergent in
Nigeria to make it lather faster and with less water,
having discovered that Nigerian consumers see
lather as an indicator of a detergents quality and

effectiveness. SABMiller created a beer specifically
for Onitsha, a large commercial city in southeastern
Nigeria, and gave it a local identity; the beers label
features a rising sun, a cultural symbol of Onitshas
Igbo people. The beer is less bitter than typical
European lagers, making it better suited for drinking
in hot weather. In Zambia, SABMillers brand is Mosi
(which is what Zambians call Victoria Falls), with a
label that shows the waterfall.7
Consumer companies must become aware of
not only local product preferences but also local
buying behaviors. For example, we found that in
Lagos and Luanda, consumers perceive low-priced
food items to be of questionable quality, whereas
19
consumers in Abuja, Accra, and Nairobi dont share

the same perception and thus wouldnt hesitate to
buy discounted food. In-country teams, tasked with
gathering consumer insights and conducting pilots
and concept tests, are crucial to CPG companies
success in local markets.
So, too, is designing a brand-pack-price architecture
that covers all the different tiers in a market, from
low end to premium. A company might introduce
smaller packs or new pack configurations (such as
shampoo in sachets) at price points that can attract
the lowest-income consumers. But, particularly in
categories where brand consciousness is high, its
also important to offer aspirational products
premium brands with recognizable packaging
at price points well within the reach of Africas
rising middle class.
In addition, CPG players can learn fromand
perhaps even partner withhomegrown businesses
that have tailored their offers to African consumers.
Nigerian e-commerce pioneer Konga, for instance,
established pickup locations and a pay on delivery
service to address Nigerians concerns about
disclosing their home address or paying online.
Create a bespoke route-to-market model by
geography and channel
Once a company has prioritized the highest-growth
cities and defined a portfolio of products for them, it
must then make sure that the products are available
for sale in those cities. Effective distribution is the
single most important determinant of success in
African consumer markets.
The fragmented retail and wholesale landscape
means that, in most African countries, theres no
ready-made nationalor even regionalnetwork
of distributors. Winners develop a route-tomarket model that focuses first on the most
attractive channels. In Ghana, for instance, CPG
companies dont need their products to be on
supermarket shelves; the most pervasive and
20
fastest-growing retail outlets are open-market

stands and neighborhood kiosks. A confectionery
manufacturer mapped those outlets in Ghanas
largest cities, segmented them by sales volume, and
tailored a route-to-market model for each segment:
for example, small neighborhood kiosks would
receive deliveries six times a week via a distributors
motorized tricycles, whereas larger kiosks would
receive van deliveries three times a week, plus a visit
every two weeks from a sales representative who
would provide merchandising support and advice.
Winners forge strong relationships with carefully
chosen trade partners. Companies would do
well to select distribution partners that have
sufficient scalethat is, partners that earn
economic returns at least ten percentage points
above the prevailing rates for borrowing in the
marketto increase their chances of having a
long-standing and stable partnership, as smaller
players typically struggle to maintain cash flows
and may not stay in business for long. And to
guarantee enough attention from a distribution
partner, a company should aim to represent at
least 25 percent of that partners profits. Product
or category exclusivity is, of course, preferred
but certainly not required. More important than
exclusivity are trade terms that reward growth
and sell-through of products.
Diageo, the global alcoholic-beverages company,
launched its ambitious Route to Consumer
program in 2013, with the goals of expanding
distribution and driving activation in retail
outlets around the world. In Nigerias southern
states, for example, Diageo is expanding coverage
from 8,000 outlets to many more of the 45,000
outlets it identified in a recent market census. The
company has begun zeroing in on the outlets it
can serve profitably and plans to ramp up its sales
force accordingly. In a similar effort under way
in Ghana, Diageo has expanded its coverage
by 20 percent and added more than 140 people
to its sales force. 8
Build a large, well-equipped sales force

Indeed, one common mistake companies make is to
underestimate the size of the sales force they will need
in Africa. The high degree of retail fragmentation
means consumer companies must employ large
armies of salespeoplemany more than they are
accustomed to having in developed marketsto
form and nurture relationships with thousands
(or tens of thousands) of small retail outlets.
The most successful companies emphasize both
capability building and performance management
for their sales force. For instance, they provide
detailed sales training and guidance, breaking down
the discrete activities each salesperson is expected
to do during sales visits and creating simple routines
to follow. They rigorously track metrics such as
the productive-call ratio (the percentage of sales
calls that result in the customer placing an order),
effective distribution (typically measured as listings
minus out-of-stocks), and sell-through rates. A few
consumer companiesincluding British American
Tobacco, Coca-Cola, and SABMillerhave built a
reputation for developing the skills of their local
African sales teams.
Winners also invest in technologies and solutions
that allow their sales force not only to serve
customers better but also to collect the data that
are so scarce in most African markets. For example,
Cadbury gives its more than 1,400 South African
salespeople handheld devices that allow them to
check inventory and pricing, place orders, and
process invoices in a matter of seconds. Heinekens
sales representatives in Africa can use their
company-issued tablets to access up-to-date account
data, map out and schedule their sales visits, and
take photographs of displays in retail outlets.
Consumer companies seeking a foothold in Africa

must be prepared to invest for the long haul. It
will, no doubt, be a challenging and sometimes
frustrating journey. But the payoff will be well worth
it: African consumers reward brands they trust, and
a brand that wins them over can thrive in the market
for decades to come.
1 African Economic Outlook 2014: Global Value Chains and
Africas Industrialisation, a joint report from the African

Development Bank Group, Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development, and United Nations
Development Programme, May 2014, afdb.org.
2 Analysis based on mobile-penetration data from Analysys
Mason, BMI Research, and Yankee Group.
3 Freedom in the World 2014: The Democratic Leadership Gap,
Freedom House, January 2014, freedomhouse.org.
4 Better access to roads in rural areas is critical to raising agricultural
productivity, Africa Infrastructure Knowledge Program, African
Development Bank Group, infrastructureafrica.org.
5 For more on these country and regional differences, see The
rise of the African consumer: A report from McKinseys Africa
Consumer Insights Center, October 2012, on mckinsey.com.
6 Canback Global Income Distribution Database, cgidd.com;
Passport, Euromonitor International, euromonitor.com.
7 The beer frontier, Economist, May 31, 2014, economist.com.
8 Route to Consumer webcasts, Diageo, November 5, 2014,
and September 17, 2013, diageo.com.
Yaw Agyenim-Boateng is an associate principal in

McKinseys Lagos office, Richard Benson-Armer is
a director in the Stamford office, and Bill Russo is a
director in the Nairobi office.
21
East Africa: The next hub for

apparel sourcing?
East African countriesin particular, Ethiopia and Kenyahave the potential to become bigger players
in garment manufacturing. But the road ahead wont be easy.
Achim Berg, Saskia Hedrich, and Bill Russo

In the past two years, a number of European
companiesamong them, H&M, Primark, and
Tescobegan sourcing some of their garments
from Ethiopia. The rest of the apparel industry took
notice: since 2013, there has been rising interest
in not just Ethiopia but also other East African
countries as potential sourcing destinations
for apparel. Also contributing to the buzz is the
renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity
Act (AGOA), which gives certain countries in subSaharan Africa duty-free access to the US market.
What is the true potential of East Africa to grow
into a major garment-sourcing hub? To find out,
we visited factories in the region; interviewed
stakeholders, including manufacturers and
buyers; and analyzed market data. In addition, we
conducted our third survey of chief purchasing
officers (CPOs), this time with a series of questions
focused on East Africa. This year, 40 apparel
CPOs, representing a combined $70 billion in 2014
purchasing volume, responded to our survey. We
found that East Africa could indeed become a
more important center for apparel sourcing, but
only if stakeholdersbuyers, governments, and
manufacturerswork together to improve business
conditions in the region.
Up-and-coming sourcing countries

Nearly three-quarters of survey respondents said,
as they did in 2011 and 2013, that over the next five
years they expect to reduce their purchases from
Chinese firms. Chinese apparel production has
22
indeed fallen since 2010but China remains

the undisputed giant of garment manufacturing,
with approximately $177 billion in apparel
exports in 2013.
Among CPOs surveyed, Bangladesh remains at the
top of the list of future sourcing destinations, with
48 percent of respondents including the country
in their top three (Exhibit 1). And 62 percent said
they intend to increase their sourcing value from
Bangladesh over the next five years. The next two
up-and-coming countries are Vietnam and India,
where, respectively, 59 percent and 54 percent of
surveyed CPOs plan to increase their sourcing value
in the next five years. Yet the combined apparel
exports of Bangladesh ($24 billion), Vietnam
($17 billion), and India ($17 billion) still amount
to less than one-third of Chinas.
For the first time in our survey, African nations
appear on the list of countries expected to play
more important roles in apparel manufacturing.
Ethiopia, notably, is seventh on the list.
The East Africa opportunity

According to United Nations projections, subSaharan Africa will have the highest growth in
working-age population anywhere over the next
20 years. By 2035, the working-age population
in the region is expected to be as large as Chinas
todaymore than 900 million people. This massive
labor pool is capturing the attention of several
industries, including apparel.
PoR#4 2015
East Africa apparel sourcing
Exhibit 1 of 3
Exhibit 1
Bangladesh remains the top future sourcing location; Ethiopia appears on the list
for the first time.
What will be the top 3 sourcing destinations over the next 5 years?
Respondents who ranked the respective countries within the top 3, n = 40, %
Bangladesh
48
Vietnam
33
India
30
Myanmar
30
Turkey
30
23
China
13
Ethiopia
10
Indonesia
Egypt
Sri Lanka
Tunisia
Source: McKinsey survey of chief procurement officers, Jan/Feb 2015
Within sub-Saharan Africa, East African

countriesespecially Ethiopia and Kenya, and
to a lesser extent Uganda and Tanzaniaare
of interest to apparel buyers (Exhibit 2). The
governments of both Ethiopia and Kenya are
taking steps to develop their domestic textile
and garment industries.
for 46 percent of the countrys exports to

the EU-15 and trousers 31 percent. As much
as 60 percent of exports are sent to Germany
and 10 percent to the United States. But
Ethiopia accounts for a mere 0.01 percent
of total apparel exports, according to the
World Trade Organization.
Each of the two countries has strengths and

weaknesses. Our research and interviews revealed,
for example, that Ethiopia has cost advantages,
whereas Kenya boasts higher production efficiency.
Challenges common to both countries include poor
infrastructure, cumbersome customs processes, a
dearth of technical and managerial talent, and low
levels of social and environmental compliance.
Why, then, is Ethiopia such a hot topic for apparel

buyers? Our interviewees and survey respondents
said the biggest reason is cost: Ethiopias wages for
garment workers are among the lowest globally, at
below $60 per month, and work-permit costs for
foreign workers are less than one-tenth those in
neighboring Kenya. Additionally, Ethiopia has low
electricity prices. The country has a strong supply
of hydroelectric power, and while the power grid is
not the most reliable, the Ethiopian government is
building a separate grid for new industrial zones
currently under development.
Ethiopia
Apparel buyers today are sourcing basic, largevolume items from Ethiopia: T-shirts accounted
East Africa: The next hub for apparel sourcing?
23
PoR#4 2015
Exhibit 2 of 3
Exhibit 2
Among sub-Saharan African countries, Ethiopia and Kenya are of greatest interest to
global buyers.
Do you expect to either start or increase sourcing from these countries between now and 2020?
Respondents, n = 40, %1
Start sourcing
Increase value
28
Ethiopia
Kenya
13
Mauritius
13
Lesotho
5
3
10
Madagascar
Uganda
10
Botswana
10
Egypt
South Africa
15
13
10
Tanzania
Swaziland
18
13
8
8
35
1 Figures may not sum, because of rounding.
Source: McKinsey survey of chief procurement officers, Jan/Feb 2015
Ethiopia could someday become a source of raw

materials: it has more than 3.2 million hectares
of land with a suitable climate for cotton
cultivation. Yet barely 7 percent of that land
is being used today. The combination of low
land-utilization rates, planning errors, low crop
yields, and quality problems means Ethiopia
has had to import cotton. Social compliance has
also been an issue. For example, organic-cotton
cultivation recently suffered a setback after
garment manufacturers supplying European
firms became entangled in land-grabbing
accusations in Ethiopias Omo Valley.
Another problem is production efficiency, which
currently runs between 40 and 50 percent, and long
lead times. Eighty percent of the CPOs in our survey
cited production inefficiency as a challenge to the
growth of apparel sourcing in Ethiopia.
24
Kenya
Like Ethiopias, Kenyas apparel industry currently
specializes in supplying high-volume bulk basics
such as trousers, which account for 58 percent
of its exports to the United States. The typical
minimum order size is 10,000 pieces; the countrys
larger players have minimum order sizes of 25,000
to 50,000 pieces.
Kenya has benefited greatly from AGOA92
percent of its apparel exports in 2013 went to
the United States, according to UN Comtrade.
Suppliers we interviewed said the EUs Economic
Partnership Agreement isnt as much of an
incentive: the overall duty-free advantage is
less than that of AGOA, and the competition
with low-cost Asian countries is stiff, as they
too are benefiting from preferential agreements
with the European Union. Some Kenyan
manufacturers said they arent eager to

expand their business to Europe because
they perceive European buyers as more
demanding with respect to lead times,
order sizes, and quality.
range. Energy costs are also high, and because the

power supply is spotty, factories often have to rely
on generators. In Africa, power from generators
works out to be four times as expensive as power
from the grid.1
The capacity of Kenyas garment factories

has grown markedly in recent years, thanks to
foreign direct investments from Asia and the
Middle East, as well as support from the export
processing zones developed by the Kenyan
government. Factories have grown larger
and more efficient; they now have around
1,500 employees on average, compared with
around 560 in the year 2000.
Like Ethiopia, Kenya will need to address

compliance and risk issues if it is to attract more
international buyers. According to the CPOs we
surveyed, corruption, high crime rates, and poor
social compliance are among the core challenges
they face in Kenya.
Future scenarios for East Africa
However, as a result of the lack of a local upstream

industry, manufacturers must import fabrics
which means considerably longer lead times.
Fabrics from overseas can take up to 40 days to
PoR#4 2015
make their way through customs and to a garment
factory. Manufacturers and buyers alike said
Exhibit 3 of 3
that another challenge of doing business in Kenya
is comparatively high labor costs, with monthly
wages for garment workers in the $120 to $150
Exhibit 3
As part of our analysis, we created, tested, and

refined three scenarios for the evolution of East
Africain particular, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania,
and Ugandaover the next decade (Exhibit 3).
In 2013, these four countries apparel exports
totaled $337 million.
The first scenario is that East Africa will
remain a niche market. This scenario assumes
that free-trade agreements with the United
States and the European Union will continue.
We see three scenarios for the future of East Africa as a sourcing hub.
Scenario 1
Niche market
Scenario 2
The new alternative
Scenario 3
Toward next mainstream
Selected large companies

regularly source basics from the
region, yet it remains largely
untapped for most players
Industry upgrading happens; more

players from around the world open
a sourcing office in the region
Description
Market remains volatile; buyers with
existing presence increase volume,
others launch pilots
Potential, $ billion
2020
2025
~0.5
~0.7
2020
2025
~1.0
2020
~1.7
2025
~1.2
~3.0
25
If East Africa is to experience sustainable growth

in garment manufacturing, collaboration among
all stakeholders is a must.
In part as a result of volatility in currencies

and equity markets, the prospects for the
region will remain rather modest.
In the second scenario, East Africa becomes a new
sourcing option for several large players in the
basics categories, and the regions apparel exports
more than double. In this scenario, East Africas
garment companies move beyond cut, make, and
trim facilities2 and embark on the path to vertical
integrationbut this process could take several years.
26
A third scenario assumes that major apparel

companies from around the world begin to open
sourcing offices in East Africa. The region attracts
enough investment to upgrade facilities and
recruit skilled workers, and its export volumes
approach those of countries such as Mexico
or Pakistan. But even in this scenario, it could
take years for vertically integrated, indigenous
players to appear in the regionand that might be
achievable only if the countries cooperate to build
regional value chains.
1 Antonio Castellano, Adam Kendall, Mikhail Nikomarov, and
If East Africa is to experience sustainable

growth in garment manufacturing, collaboration
among all stakeholders is a must. Governments,
for instance, might consider whether to invest
in infrastructure, support local entrepreneurs,
diversify free-trade agreements, and build
market-oriented educational institutions.
Suppliers will need to embrace performance
improvements and management training,
upgrade their facilities and offerings, and
enter into long-term partnerships with buyers.
All parties will need to make every effort to
ensure social and environmental compliance.
Buyers, for their part, would do well to support
the capability-building efforts of East African
suppliers and begin to evaluate the region
as a true strategic option rather than just
a testing ground.
Tarryn Swemmer, Brighter Africa: The growth potential of

the sub-Saharan electricity sector, McKinsey & Company,
February 2015, mckinsey.com.
2 Cut, make, and trim (CMT) factories do not supply fabrics.
Apparel buyers must select and buy all the fabric, trimmings,
and other components. Workers at the CMT factories then use
those fabrics to make the garments.
This article is adapted from Sourcing in a volatile world: The

East Africa opportunity, an April 2015 report from the Apparel,
Fashion & Luxury Group in McKinseys Retail Practice.
The authors wish to thank Benedikt Berlemann for his
contributions to this article.
Achim Berg is a principal in McKinseys Frankfurt office,
Saskia Hedrich is a senior expert in the Munich office,
and Bill Russo is a director in the Nairobi office.
27
Toko Ohmori
Becoming a regional powerhouse

in food retailing
Croatian conglomerate Agrokor is the top grocery player in five countries. In this interview, the companys
head of retail reflects on the rewards and challenges of cross-border growth.
Tobias Wachinger
Agrokor is Croatias largest private company and one
of Europes largest family-owned businesses. It has a
presence in several industries, including agriculture,
food production, grocery and nonfood retail, and
tourism. Having acquired Slovenian grocer Mercator
in 2014, Agrokor now operates a 6 billion retail
business with approximately 2,000 stores across five
countries in southeastern Europe.
Overseeing Agrokors retail interests is Ante Todori
c,
who was groomed for the job from a young ageafter
all, it was his father, Agrokor president Ivica Todori
c,
who started the company as a small business selling
flowers and seedlings in 1976. Ante Todori
c joined
the company in 2006 and is now the executive vice
president in charge of its retail business.
In July, he sat down with McKinseys Tobias
Wachinger and shared his thoughts on Agrokors
recent growth.
28
McKinsey: Agrokor roughly doubled the size of its

retail business after acquiring Mercator. Had you
been planning that deal for a long time?
Ante Todoric:
Yes, wed been thinking about the
merger for many years. Let me give you a little bit
of company history: in 1994, Agrokor acquired the
Croatian grocery retailer Konzum, which was a
300 million business with 200 stores in Zagreb.
Over the past 20 years, Konzums revenues have
multiplied tenfold. As of last summer, Konzum was
a 3 billion business operating about 1,000 stores in
three countries: Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina,
and Serbia. As we were going on this expansion
journey, we realized that we have a good retail
formulawe know how to build successful stores in
which customers like to do their grocery shopping.
So, as far back as nine years ago, we began
discussing the possibility of merging with
Mercator, our main competitor, and thereby

becoming the largest retailer in the region.
Mercators supermarket format was comparable
to Konzums and it was, like Konzum, highly
appreciated and highly rated by customers. But
its footprint was a little different, which made
it an attractive target for us: Mercator was big in
Slovenia and Montenegro, where Konzum didnt
have a presence. Mercator had opened some stores
in Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, where
Konzum was already the clear retail leader. In
Serbia, Konzum and Mercator had businesses
of similar size.
In the past three years, we did a lot of work to finalize
the acquisition. It was a complicated process, but we
finally closed the deal in September 2014. Were now
the proud owner of Mercator. And weve become the
market leader in all five of these countries, as well as
the leading retailer in the Adria region.
McKinsey: Its now been almost a year. Has the
acquisition met your expectations?
Ante Todori c:
Absolutely. We are seeing
improvements in the business and leveraging
substantial synergies, which justify the big
investment we made. Were convinced that the
acquisition was the right move. But I must say
that the work has not become less intense
rather, its the opposite.
McKinsey: Say more about that. What aspects of
the integration have required intense work?
Ante Todoric:
We were well prepared before
we closed the deal; hundreds of colleagues on
both sides had prepared for the integration.
Since September 2014, weve become even more
structured and disciplined. We set up crosscountry projects for all key retail functionsfrom
purchasing, assortment, and private label to store
operations, logistics, utilities, and IT. For each of
these, we have a clear plan and well-defined targets
Becoming a regional powerhouse in food retailing
for improvement. Everyone understands their

responsibilities, both within each country and for
the overall company. We meticulously monitor
these projects to ensure that they deliver. And that
is hard work: it means tracking the implementation
of each of the improvement ideas and providing
support whenever it is needed.
Of course, the success of these postmerger projects
is the top priority for all managers. For the past year,
wethe retail managers of Agrokor and Mercator,
the country managers, and key functional managers
in critical departments such as purchasing and
HRhave sat together for an entire day every week to
make sure that we develop the right strategy and the
right solutions for whatever issues arise.
In doing all this, were taking advantage of the fact
that both Konzum and Mercator have invested
immensely over the past few years in learning
how to run an excellent retail chain. Each of the
countries is good at something and serves as a
benchmark for the other countries to follow. Weve
also benchmarked ourselves against European
best-practice retailers in areas such as loyaltyprogram design and private label, and weve tried
to make our benchmarking as detailed as possible.
Weve talked to countless experts.
Weve done all this because we want to excel. I firmly
believe that we will succeed in the long run only if we
can deliver the best offer to our customers while also
having the most efficient cost base.
McKinsey: It sounds like youre focused on not just
merger-related synergies but more broadly on bestpractice transfer across all the countries in which
you operate.
Ante Todoric:
Yes, exactly. It doesnt really matter
to us where an idea for improvement comes from or
whether its related to scale or to synergies. We want
to become better and better, and to do that we need
to pursue all avenues for improvement potential.
29
Ante Todoric
Vital statistics
Born in 1978 in Zagreb, Croatia

Married, with 3 children
Education
Holds a BS in economics from

the University of Zagreb
Career highlights
Agrokor Group
(2008present)
Executive vice president, retail
business group
McKinsey: You now have stores in five countries

from the former Yugoslavia. These countries share
a difficult past. Was it challenging to bring the
various countries management teams together and
get them to all go in the same direction?
Ante Todoric:
It wasand continues to bea
major challenge, for sure. Our countries are very
different, not just in culture and mentality but also
in economic terms. Slovenia, for example, is at a
completely different level of GDP per capita than, say,
Bosnia or Montenegro. So of course we need to take
into account that the cost structures of the countries
are different and that retail prices are different.
But taking such differences into consideration is
something that every multicountry retailer needs to
do. At its core, retail is a local business. We need to
serve local customer needs, meet local assortment
requirements, recognize local mentalities, and of
course hold our own against local competitors.
What we want to achieve is the right mixthe perfect
balance of getting everyone to march in one direction
30
Chairman of the supervisory board

of Frikom, a Serbian manufacturer
and distributor of ice cream and
frozen food
Former deputy chairman of the
supervisory board of PIK Vinkovci, an
agriculture and transportation company
Former member of the supervisory
board of Zvijezda, Croatias largest
producer of edible oils
toward best practice and of maintaining the local

spirit of the countries. Therefore, we constantly need
to question whether that one direction is the right
one in a specific market. We always need to make
sure that we have great local leaders in each country
who understand how best to be competitive in that
country. I believe weve come to some good decisions
in each country.
There are also significant differences in corporate
culture. Mercator comes from a history of being
a Slovenian state-owned company; Agrokor is
a Croatian owner-led company. There are big
differences in how people think about problems,
how they deal with challenges, how much they rely
on analytics, how they develop pragmatic solutions,
and so on. We all need to bear in mind that there
are fundamental differences that stem from each
companys past. So far, I believe we have managed
these differences successfullyby creating crosscountry projects, by making sure that both sides
are driving projects for synergy creation and bestpractice exchange, and of course by having all top
managers from both sides take part in the frequent,

long meetings I mentioned. Were proud that weve
taken the best of both cultures and made it into a
productive collaboration.
But Im aware that we are not yet done with the
integration. We need to always be careful to not take
things for granted.
McKinsey: You say you are not done yet. How
long do you think it will take to fully integrate
the companies?
Ante Todoric:
I think about this effort as having
three layers. The first layer consists of the strategic
pillars and decisionsregarding store formats,
banners, assortments, and key processesthat we
now have in place, for the most part. The second
layer, the fine-tuning, will take another two or
three years, and we will be in even better shape
after thats done. Then there is a third layer, made
up of the things that will need to stay local and
might never be fully integrated.
Our work is already paying offthis year we will
see good results, and next year we hope to see
even better results. But we are a company that
never stops. Were always looking for the next
things to work on and improve: how we present
fresh products in the stores, how to optimize
promotions, and so on.
Becoming a regional powerhouse in food retailing
McKinsey: Do you think this acquisition and the

integration have changed the way you lead?
Ante Todoric:
This merger was one of the biggest
business transactions in the history of our region.
I believe everyone who has been involved in such an
effort should be thankful. It has been a huge learning
experience for me. We touched so many levers.
I sawand am seeingso many different business
practices across countries and stores, and I deal with
so many different managers from different cultures.
I feel much stronger and more confident as a leader
than I did even just a few years ago.
Despite the hard work, this effort is incredibly
energizing. I am learning something new daily, and
I have the pleasure to coordinate a group of excellent
managers and experts. To be clear, this merger was
possible only because we have strong leaders in all the
countries. The success of a merger like this depends on
the leaders who are driving it. I am grateful to have so
many people I can rely onand I do rely on their daily
work, their ideas, their stamina, their desire to become
better all the time. I am very proud to work with these
people in such a culture and spirit.
Tobias Wachinger is a principal in McKinseys
Munich office.
31
Toko Ohmori
Secrets to implementation success

What do successful implementers do differently from other companies? Our survey of more than 2,200
executives yields actionable answers.
Frdric Lefort, Dave McMurray, and Joseph Tesvic
Any executive who has led a major change program
knows that even the most carefully planned
programs can fail due to mediocre implementation.
Turning plans into reality isnt easy, and certain
companies just seem to be better at it than others.
To learn how some of the worlds leading companies
ensure implementation excellence, we conducted
a survey of more than 2,200 executives in 900
companies across industries.1 We asked respondents
to evaluate their companys implementation
performance, capabilities, and practices.
Our survey revealed that good implementers
defined as companies whose respondents reported
top-quartile scores for their implementation
capabilitiesalso received higher scores on a
range of financial-performance indexes relative to
their competitors. Perhaps more important, goodimplementer respondents say that two years after
the change efforts ended, their companies sustained
twice the financial benefits compared with change
efforts at poor implementers.
32
So what can consumer-packaged-goods (CPG)

companies learn from successful implementers?
The factors that matter most

Every company leaks value at various stages of
the implementation process: some of the prioritized
initiatives dont get implemented, others are
implemented but dont achieve bottom-line impact,
and still others may achieve bottom-line impact
but cant sustain it. Good implementers retain
more value at every stage of the process than poor
implementers do (Exhibit 1).
Clearly, implementation is hard to get right. Less
than half of respondents say that most or all of
their change efforts in the past five years met their
initial goals and sustained results over time.
The most crucial factors when it comes to
implementation success or failure, according
to survey respondents, are organization-wide
ownership of and commitment to change,
PoRCG_4_2015
Exhibit 1 of 3
Exhibit 1
The good implementers retain more value than their peers at every stage
of implementation.
Proportion of opportunities that good-implementer companies retain at each stage of implementation,
relative to bottom-quartile companies
Opportunities
that were
prioritized and
implemented
Opportunities
that were
implemented
and achieved
measurable
financial benefits
Opportunities that
achieved financial
benefits and
were sustained
Total opportunities
that were
sustained after
2 years
1.1x
1.3x
2.0x
1.4x
prioritization, and sufficient resources and

capabilities (Exhibit 2). These factors are the top
three for many industries, including CPG. Below, we
discuss each of these factors in greater detail, citing
examples of best practices that weve identified in
our work with CPG companies worldwide.
Ownership and commitment
In our experience, one effective way to foster
ownership and commitment is to create a projectmanagement office (PMO): a formal entity directly
responsible for leading the change effort and
monitoring its progress. The PMO should be led by
a relatively senior person who reports to a C-level
executiveotherwise he or she wont be taken
seriously. Top management must view the role of
PMO leader as an important stepping stone for a high
performer; in other words, the PMO leader should
be someone who is seen as a future C-level executive.
Although the ideal PMO leader will be chosen from
within the company (so that he or she will have more
credibility in the organization), weve found that
its more effective to bring in a skilled leader from
outside rather than appoint an insider who doesnt
have the leadership skills to rally the troops.
The troops will almost always include staff
from different functions. For instance, a sales
transformation will most likely involve not just
salespeople but also employees in the marketing,

finance, and product-development functions.
At a large CPG manufacturer, a handpicked
representative from every relevant function
devoted 20 percent of his or her time to the PMO
for 12 to 24 months and reported to the PMO leader
as either a direct or dotted-line report. The entire
team had joint goals related to the transformation,
and these goals were linked to each team members
performance appraisals and compensation.
The PMO should consist primarily of highperforming individuals, but it should also include
up-and-comers who would benefit from the training
and increased responsibilities. In addition, some
companies deliberately assign to the PMO a few
valued employees who are perceived as roadblocks
people who may initially be opposed to the
transformationto understand and address their
concerns and eventually gain their support.
But ownership and commitment among the PMO
staff wont be enough; the rest of the company has
to get on board as well. To that end, leaders should
ensure that several critical elements are in place
early on, including top-team alignment on the
transformations change story and aspirations,
specific targets for both performance and health
across all the relevant business functions, and visible
33
PoRCG_4_2015
Exhibit 2 of 3
Exhibit 2
Ownership of and commitment to change have the greatest bearing on a major

change efforts outcome.
% of respondents,1 n = 2,230
Factors most responsible for change
outcomes, past 5 years
Successful change efforts
Clear, organization-wide ownership

and commitment to change across
all levels of the organization
53
Sufficient resources and capabilities

to execute changes
48
Clear accountability for specific

actions during implementation
47
Continuous improvements during

implementation and rapid action to devise
alternate plans, if needed
39
Planning from day 1 for the long-term

sustainability of changes
1 Respondents
32
30
44
46
50
29
36
31
who answered dont know are not shown.
and committed leadership at all levels. Frequent and

varied communication is essential.
When a leading breakfast-food manufacturer
embarked on a large-scale transformation,
executives kept all stakeholders informed about its
progress using a range of written communications
e-mail updates, a new internal newsletter, intranet
stories, webinars during which employees could ask
questions anonymouslyas well as in-person forums
such as town halls and department meetings. The
CEO kicked off the change program and, every six
months, sent out a company-wide letter celebrating
its achievements. In each of the companys four
34
65
67
Ability to focus organization on a

prioritized set of changes
Effective program management and

use of standard change processes
Unsuccessful change efforts
geographic regions, the senior executive directly in

charge of the transformation held a town hall and
fielded questions from employees. The PMO leader
hosted open forums regularly and gave monthly
progress updates either in person or in writing.
Prioritization of initiatives
Some transformation efforts flounder because too
many initiatives are going on at once, spreading
the organizations resources too thin. To ensure
that resources are efficiently and wisely allocated,
leaders should assess each initiatives alignment
with the organizations strategy and its potential
impact, and prioritize accordingly.
A global food company took a phased approach to

its procurement-transformation efforts, devoting
the initial phase to a set of quick wins in order to
build buy-in and momentum. For instance, for one
of the companys key food ingredients, it had too
many supplierseight, compared with three or four
suppliers in other categories. Consolidation would
increase the companys buying power and significantly
lower its costs. Therefore, one of the early high-priority
initiatives was to put all eight incumbent suppliers,
along with a few new vendors, through a competitive
bidding process. After three months, the company
had four fewer suppliers, a more efficient supply
base, and 10 percent cost savings in the category
demonstrating to the rest of the organization that the
transformation effort was worthwhile and spurring
the procurement teams in charge of other categories to
reevaluate their supply base as well.
One common mistake companies make is to assume
that certain changes simply cant be madethat a
suboptimal multiyear contract with a supplier, for
example, would be impossible to amend. But, in our
experience, very few things are set in stone: the terms
of an agreement can be renegotiated, contracts can be
modified, and project timelines can be accelerated or
lengthened. It may just take more energy and creativity
to get to a win-win scenario, and the head of the PMO
may need to forcefully make a case for change.
Another common mistake is to simply continue
whatever initiatives happen to already be under
way, even if they wont make as much of an impact
as other initiatives. Companies should instead build
a solid fact base, agree on an estimate of the size
of the prize, and focus on those initiatives that will
yield the greatest payoff. If a company continues
to commit resources to low-impact initiatives, the
transformation effort will lose steam; resources will
be squandered and opportunities lost.
Resources and capabilities
For consumer-facing companies, resources are a
particularly important success factor: 43 percent
of respondents from such companies, compared

with 34 percent of their B2B peers, attribute
the success of change efforts to sufficient
resources and capabilities. For failed efforts,
half of B2C respondents say insufficient resources
were to blame; just 40 percent of B2B executives
say the same.
At the best implementers, change programs are
staffed with the required number of people who
have the relevant skill sets. Each persons role is
well defined, and expectations and responsibilities
are aligned with the resources available; employees
duties lie solidly within their areas of specialty or
are appropriate for their skill levels. All employees
receive feedback and ongoing coaching.
Sometimes, there are enough people working on a
change programbut they dont have the requisite
capabilities. At good-implementer companies, a
rigorous capability-building component is central to
the program and typically involves the creation and
use of a detailed skill matrix to highlight skill gaps
and training needs, stringent evaluation processes,
and clear professional-development and career paths.
The food company undertaking a procurement
transformation had multiple purchasing centers
around the world. The purchasing staff used
whatever category-management practices,
processes, and tools they wanted, and the lack of
standardization often resulted in wide variability
in performance. So, as part of the transformation,
the chief procurement officer designated a lead
buyer for every category. The lead buyer was
tasked with overseeing and training the buyers
for that category in every region, ensuring that
all the buyers across the company were using the
same guidelines, tools, and metrics and aiming
for the same targets. Even experienced buyers
had to be retrained in some best-practice tools
and techniques that they had either never learned
to use or had stopped using in favor of easier but
less robust methods. The capability-building
35
component honed the skills of all the companys

80-plus procurement professionals.
place to identify problems, and giving employees

effective feedback (Exhibit 3).
With global category strategies in place and a central

repository of best-in-class sourcing tools (such as
supplier profiles, procurement playbooks, clean
sheets, and requests for proposals) accessible to
all buyers, the procurement organization was able
to capture synergies and efficiencies in its tactical
activitiesfreeing up staff to focus on more strategic
initiatives. The impact was a 54 percent decline in
costs compared with the previous four years.
Often, it takes a radical decision to get to best

practice. For example, a C-level officer at a large
food distributor realized that the members of his
buying staff were constantly in internal meetings
and thus werent spending enough time on their
core responsibilities. He took the bold step of
discontinuing all routine departmental meetings,
thus freeing up several hours of the buyers
time each week. Instead, he required buyers to
participate in detailed one-on-one sessions with
him to discuss progress on specific initiatives.
During these sessions, the executive gave each
buyer direct and immediate feedback. Ultimately,
the executive himself had many more weekly
meetings than he previously had, but heand the
buying staffagreed that these meetings were
significantly more productive.
Implementation practices
PoRCG_4_2015
As for specific implementation practices, executives
Secrets
to implementation
say their companies
do fairly wellsuccess
at developing
Exhibit
3
of
3
standard operating procedures and assessing
employees against their individual goals. But
they say their companies falter when it comes to
conducting effective meetings, having processes in
Exhibit 3
Companies are best at using standardized procedures and assessing employees;

many lack effective problem-solving processes.
% of respondents,1 n = 2,230
Strongly
agree
Somewhat
agree
Somewhat
disagree
Strongly
disagree
Extent to which respondents agree that practices

describe their organizations
Top 3
(of 16)
Bottom 3
(of 16)
1 Respondents
36
My company develops and uses standard

operating procedures
24
53
18
Employees are regularly assessed against

their individual goals and targets
24
47
22
Leaders conduct regular performance

discussions with their teams
19
50
22
Employees conduct effective meetings
43
35
13
Processes are in place to quickly identify

issues or problems, the root causes of
those issues, and solutions
11
41
36
12
Employees at all levels receive

effective feedback
11
42
33
who answered dont know/not applicable are not shown, so gures may not sum to 100%.
14
1 The online survey was in the field from January 14 to January 24,
At top-quartile implementers, a higher proportion

of experienced change leaders lead transformation
programs relative to other companies. In fact,
the survey respondents at good implementers
were 1.4 times more likely than those at poor
implementers to have personally led multiple
change efforts. These findings are consistent
with the belief, shared by the worlds best
implementers, that implementation is a discipline
and that people can get better at it over time.
Indeed, by learning from others experiences
and adopting their best practices, leaders at
consumer-goods companies can better ensure
implementation success.
2014, and garnered responses from 2,230 executives representing

the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional
specialties, and tenures. The results reported in this article also
include responses from an additional 151 global executives
surveyed at an earlier date. To adjust for differences in response
rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each
respondents nation to global GDP.
The authors wish to thank Jesse Scott for his contributions

to this article.
Frdric Lefort is a principal in McKinseys Gothenburg
office, Dave McMurray is an alumnus, and Joseph Tesvic
is a principal in the Sydney office.
37
Toko Ohmori
Getting the most out of your

sustainability program
Sustainability initiatives wont create lasting value if theyre poorly managed. Here are four lessons
from companies that are doing it right.
Achim Berg, Nils Schlag, and Martin Stuchtey
Among retailers and consumer-goods manufacturers,
commitment to environmental and social objectives
can take many formswhether its distributing fairtrade products, reducing materials used in packaging,
or ensuring humane working conditions at suppliers
factories. Unilever, for one, has a detailed Sustainable
Living Plan, and among the companys goals for 2020
is to halve the greenhouse-gas impact of its products
over their life cycles. Swedish furniture maker IKEA
has installed more than 700,000 solar panels in its
buildings worldwide and has committed to own and
operate more than 300 wind turbines. British retail
group Kingfishers sustainability plan, which it calls
Net Positive, aims not only to make frugal use of
natural resources but also to restore and regenerate
the environmentputting back more than we take
out, as the company says.
These programs can be powerful agents of change,
both toward greater alignment between customer
38
and corporate interests and toward a culture of

systemwide innovation in products and business
models. Yet some skepticism remains as to whether
sustainability efforts have any impact on financial
performance in the short and medium term. Our
recent research provides answers to both of these
questions.1 In this article, we discuss how companies
are creating value from their sustainability programs
and what practices enable companies to keep these
programs running smoothly and effectively.
How sustainability programs create value

In previous work, our colleagues have outlined the various
ways that companies can use sustainability initiatives
to manage risk, drive growth, or improve returns on
capital (Exhibit 1).2 In our latest research, we sought
to unearth examples of how companies are actually
doing it. We found that companies that built sustainability
into their operations saw immediate benefits, which
gave them the momentum to do even more.
PoRCG_4_2015
Getting the most out of your sustainability
Exhibit 1 of 2
Exhibit 1
Companies are pursuing sustainability in a way that creates value.

Guide investment/divestment
decisions at portfolio
level based on sustainability
Develop sustainability-related
products/technologies to fill
needs of customers/company
(R&D function)
Composition
of business
portfolios
Mitigate risks and
capture opportunities
from regulation
Reduce reputation
risks and get
credit for your actions
(eg, through
proper stakeholder
management)
Manage risk of
operational disruptions
(from resource
scarcity, climatechange impact, or
community risks)
Build a better understanding

of sustainability-related
opportunities in new market
segments/geographies
and develop strategies to
capture them
Innovation and
new products
New markets
Growth
Regulatory
management
Green sales
and marketing
Risk
management
Returns on
capital
Reputation
management
Sustainable
value chains
Operational
risk
management
Sustainable
operations
Improve revenue
through increased
share and/or
price premiums by
marketing sustainability attributes
Improve resource
management and
reduce environmental
impact across value
chain to reduce costs
and improve products
value propositions
Reduce operating
costs through improved
internal resource
management (eg,
water, waste, energy,
carbon, employee
engagement)
Source: Sheila Bonini and Stephan Grner, The business of sustainability: McKinsey Global Survey results, Oct 2011, mckinsey.com
Risk management
Of the companies we surveyed,3 more than
90 percent could point to a specific event or risk
such as consumer pressure or soaring commodity
pricesthat directly triggered their commitment
to sustainability. More than half cited long-term
risks to their businesses: 26 percent said they
wanted to avoid damage to their reputations,
15 percent were seeking to prevent regulatory
problems, and 15 percent said they wanted to
eliminate unnecessary operational risks. Indeed,
we found that the value at stake from risk-related
sustainability issues can be as high as 70 percent
of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation,
and amortization (Exhibit 2).
Getting the most out of your sustainability program
What do these risk-management efforts look like in

practice? The US-based candy companies Mars and
Hershey offer two examples. To secure their future
supply of cocoa, both companies are investing in
the sustainability of their suppliers. Mars supports
smallholder cocoa farmers in Cte dIvoire by providing
high-quality seeds and fertilizers as well as training; it
is also investing in research to improve the quality and
performance of cocoa plants. Hershey sends experts
to teach its suppliers best-practice farming methods;
its CocoaLink mobile-phone service offers advice and
market information. The company also contributes to
local education initiatives and the fight against child
labor. Both companies have set a goal of having their
entire cocoa supply sustainably sourced by 2020.
39
PoRCG_4_2015
Getting the most out of your sustainability
Exhibit 2 of 2
Exhibit 2
Our research shows that the value at stake from sustainability challenges
is substantial.
Challenge
Examples
Potential impact, % of EBITDA1
Regulation/
reputation
Restricted license to operate
Rising operating
costs
Raw-material costs driven up by supply/demand
Supply-chain
disruption
Production delay or cancellation due to lack of access
70
Reputational damage based on perceived misuse

of resources
60
True cost of water or carbon reflected in prices
Especially significant for local resourceswater, power
25
1Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
Growth
Nearly half the companies we surveyed (44 percent)
cited business and growth opportunities as the
impetus for starting their sustainability programs.
Redesigning products to make them more
sustainable, for instance, can yield tremendous
financial benefits. Unilever developed a brand
of dishwashing liquid, Sunlight, that is equally
effective but uses much less water than other brands;
sales of Sunlight and Unilevers other water-saving
products are outpacing category growth by more
than 20 percent in certain water-scarce markets.
Apparel companies such as Europes C&A now
use organic cotton, which is grown without
synthetic chemicals or genetically modified seeds.
Consumer demand for organic cotton is rising: in
2014, C&A sold 130 million garments made from
the fabric, up from 85 million in 2012. C&A plans
to use organic cotton in 100 percent of its cotton
products by 2020.
Returns on capital
Most of the companies we surveyed said their
sustainability initiatives began with a focus on
40
reducing resource consumption: 97 percent of

them are conducting initiatives to increase energy
efficiency, 91 percent to reduce waste, and 85 percent
to save water in day-to-day operations.
Puma, the sporting-goods manufacturer, has
been measuring its ecological footprint and that
of its largest suppliers since 2005. It aims to
reduce the waste it generates, as well as its water
and energy consumption and carbon dioxide
emissions, by 25 percent compared with 2010.
The company is making steady progress: between
2010 and 2013, Puma reduced waste generated
per employee by 35 percent and cut energy
consumption by 4.2 percent.
Bringing discipline to sustainability programs

Even with a sustainability agenda in place,
companies often encounter problems with execution.
To bring more discipline to their sustainability
efforts, companies would do well to follow four
principles commonly associated with performance
management: select a few focus areas, set
measurable goals, conduct cost-benefit analyses, and
create incentives for employees and suppliers.
Companies would do well to follow four principles:

select a few focus areas, set measurable goals,
conduct cost-benefit analyses, and create incentives
for employees and suppliers.
Focus, focus, focus

We found that many companies choose more
than 10 areas in which to concentrate their
sustainability efforts; some choose more than
30. Its hard to imagine how a sustainability
agenda with such a large number of focus areas
can get the necessary buy-in and resources to be
successful. In our experience, the best approach
for maximizing impact is to select three, or at most
five, strategic priorities.
For example, Coca-Colas sustainability framework
which it calls Me, We, Worldencompasses its
initiatives to improve personal health and wellness,
the communities in which it operates, and the
environment. The company reports making material,
tangible progress on metrics related to three specific
areas of focus within this framework: well-being,
women, and water.
To emulate Coca-Colas success in identifying focus

areas that are a good fit with corporate strategy, a
company should study what matters most along its
entire value chain through internal analysis and
dialogue with suppliers, customers, regulators, and
nongovernmental organizations. The end product of
these efforts shouldnt be a mere laundry list of vague
ideas but rather a systematic sustainability agenda.
Set measurable goals
For each focus area, a company then needs to set
clear, quantifiable goals with a long-term orientation
(five years or more) and communicate those goals
both internally and externally. Notice the difference
between a general aspiration to reduce the impact
of our packaging on the environment and a specific,
measurable goal to eliminate 20 million pounds of
packaging by 2016. Another example of a specific
goal comes from a coalition of apparel retailers and
41
manufacturers including Benetton, H&M, Inditex,

and Marks and Spencer: these companies are
aiming for supply networks with zero discharge
of hazardous chemicals by 2020.
Publicizing quantifiable goals motivates the
organization, forces leaders to allocate resources,
and promotes accountability. An analysis of
companies that are part of the Carbon Disclosure
Project found that those that announced their
goals to the public did better when it came to
cutting emissionsand also had better financial
returns on such investments.
Conduct cost-benefit analyses and communicate
the results
Making the business case for sustainability might
sound like an obvious thing to do, but apparently
it isnt. Only around a fifth of survey respondents
reported that the financial benefits are clearly
understood across the organization.
Many companies have struggled to quantify the
financial impact of their social and environmental
initiatives, in part because of the distributed
nature of that impact: savings or profits arising
from sustainability initiatives are commonly
spread across various parts of an organization. It
is therefore advisable to appoint an executive as
42
the owner of each target, meaning his or her

team continually tracks the costs and benefits of
sustainability actions. Tracking should also extend
to indirect effects, such as an enhanced corporate
reputation and increased customer loyalty, which
pay off over the longer term.
Marks and Spencer tracks progress against its
sustainability commitments, as laid out in the
companys Plan A program. The commitments
generated 145 million in net benefits in 201314.
These benefits are regularly communicated to
shareholders, employees, and consumers; for
instance, the companys latest annual report
mentions Plan A more than 70 times.
Create incentives for employees and suppliers
The top reason that survey respondents gave for
their companies failure to capture the full value
of sustainability was the lack of incentives to do
so. Only 1 company in 12 includes sustainability
criteria in calculating performance-based
compensation for executives, and only 1 in
7 rewards suppliers for good sustainability
performance. Among survey respondents,
37 percent named short-term earnings pressure
as a reason for poor sustainability results; about
a third named lack of key performance indicators
and not enough people being held accountable.
Companies could learn a lesson from sporting-goods

maker Nike, which directs more of its business to
suppliers that receive high scores on its Sourcing and
Manufacturing Sustainability Index. This index, one
of Nikes tools for assessing factory performance,
gives sustainability factors equal weight with quality,
cost, and on-time delivery. Nike requires lowerperforming factories to resolve issues in a timely
manner or else face penalties such as reduced orders
or even a termination of the business relationship.
The incentives seem to be working: between 2011 and
2013, Nike saw a 19-percentage-point improvement
in the number of suppliers that met its standards.
Ultimately, each company must define its own

sustainability philosophy in the context of its
specific business and mission. The examples
described here illustrate the competitive advantages
that sustainability initiatives can offer. That
said, even the most exemplary commitment to
sustainability doesnt change the fact that the
earths natural resources are limited. A longerterm solution will therefore require newcircular
and regenerativebusiness models that decouple
economic growth from resource consumption.
1 For more on the research findings and methodology, see
Sheila Bonini and Steven Swartz, Profits with purpose:

How organizing for sustainability can benefit the bottom line,
McKinsey on Sustainability & Resource Productivity, July 2014,
mckinsey.com.
2 Sheila Bonini and Stephan Grner, The business of
sustainability: McKinsey Global Survey results, October 2011,
mckinsey.com.
3 McKinsey conducted a sustainability-assessment survey with
340 respondents from almost 40 companies, exploring why
and how companies are addressing sustainability and to what
extent executives believe it can and will affect their companies
bottom line.
This article is adapted from Profits with purpose: How

organizing for sustainability can benefit the bottom line,
which first appeared in the 2014 issue of McKinsey on
Sustainability & Resource Productivity.
The authors wish to thank Sheila Bonini, Kerstin
Humberg, and Steven Swartz for their contributions
to this article.
Achim Berg is a principal in McKinseys Frankfurt office,
Nils Schlag is a principal in the Dsseldorf office, and
Martin Stuchtey, based in the Munich office, is the director
of the McKinsey Center for Business and Environment.
43
Keiko Morimoto
Smarter schedules, better budgets:

How to improve store operations
Through activity-based labor scheduling and budgeting, retailers can cut store labor costs by up to
12 percent while improving both customer service and employee satisfaction.
Daniel Lubli, Gernot Schlgl, and Patrik Siln
In recent years, retailers have taken steps to lean

out their processes and gain efficiencieswith
impressive results. Lean-retailing initiatives have
yielded as much as a 15 percent reduction in retailers
operating costs.1 But with competition intensifying
and with customers expecting ever-higher service
levels, many retailers are now looking for new
ways to further improve productivity and enhance
customer service.
One major area of opportunity is workforce
management: specifically, labor scheduling
and budgeting. Because of the complexity
inherent in creating accurate staffing schedules
and budgets for a large number of stores, even
sophisticated retailers find substantial room
for improvement in this area. Off-the-shelf
software and solutionsalthough useful for
important tasks such as monitoring employee
44
attendance and managing payrolltypically

produce generic schedules that dont take into
account store-specific factors and workload
fluctuations. The unfortunate results include
high labor costs, inconsistent customer service,
and dissatisfied employees.
If a retailer could better predict the number
and skill set of employees that each of its stores
needs every day (or, better, every hour) of
the week, then customers would get prompt
sales assistance, shelves would be replenished
in a timely manner, employees would be neither
idle nor overworked, and, in most stores, labor
costs would go down.
Thats already happening at a few leading
retailers. Chief operating officers have begun
looking closely at store activities and taking a
more data-driven approach to labor scheduling

and budgeting. In doing so, they have captured
between 4 and 12 percent in cost savings while
also improving customer servicefor example,
by shortening checkout queues or by having
more staff available on the sales floor to assist
customersand boosting employee satisfaction.
This level of impact has been achieved at
several different types of retailers, from large
supermarket chains in Europe to specialty
retailers in emerging markets.
A mismatch between supply and demand

Many retailers use workforce-management
software to generate a weekly staffing schedule
that is unique to each store, usually based on
revenue forecastsmore employees work during
hours or days when sales are projected to be
the highest. Revenue is a sensible criterion
for scheduling, but its an insufficient one because
customers buying patterns (average basket size,
average purchase price per item, and so on)
can vary by hour and by day. A European grocer
found, for example, that manned service counters,
such as deli and bakery counters, account for
a much higher share of revenues on weekends
than they do during the week. On weekends,
therefore, the required labor hours increase
at a higher rate than revenues.
Furthermore, most retailers dont have a
systematic way to account for store-specific
factors that affect how long activities takesuch
as the distance that an employee must walk to
transport a pallet from a delivery truck to the
storeroom or how many elevators employees
can use for bringing products to the sales
floor. The same activity can be much more
time consuming at one store than at another,
even if the two stores have equal revenues.
Just as staffing schedules rarely align with
a stores true labor needs, labor budgets, too,
are often mismatched with a stores current
reality. Many retailers decide on labor

budgets in an undifferentiated top-down
manner: for example, they mandate that
each stores labor costs must not exceed
10 percent of sales. Store managers can then
negotiate adjustments based on their intuition
or experience. This simplistic approach relies
too heavily on store managers judgment;
it also unfairly penalizes some stores. For
instance, a store in which fresh produce
contributes a large fraction of sales will be
at a disadvantage, because fresh produce
takes more time and care to replenish than
packaged goods. We found that such differences
among stores can lead to labor-cost differences
of up to 30 percent, even if the stores sales
are equal. A seemingly equitable top-down
directive thus becomes inequitable in practice;
some stores can provide exceptional customer
service and a relaxed pace of work for employees,
while at other stores, stressed-out workers
struggle to meet their service-level targets.
Four prerequisites to an activitybased approach

To revolutionize their labor scheduling
and budgeting, innovative retailers arent
simply relying on off-the-shelf workforcemanagement solutions. Instead they are
taking an activity-based approachone that
matches store employees working hours to a
changing workload, so that the right employees
are working at the right times, performing the
right tasks, and spending the least amount
of time required for those tasks. Equally
important, such an approach helps retailers
develop accurate annual labor budgets
for each store. An activity-based approach
can be immensely valuable, particularly
to retailers that employ 20 or more people
per store.
Companies have long used activity-based
techniques (such as activity-value analysis)
Smarter schedules, better budgets: How to improve store operations
45
to improve processes and reduce costs, but

rarely have such techniques been applied to
labor scheduling and budgeting. In our analysis
of labor-scheduling logic, we identified four
prerequisites for excellence in using an activitybased approach:
All four of these prerequisites can be challenging

for retailers. Weve found, however, that
the first prerequisitegenerating accurate
workload calculationsoften proves to be
the key improvement lever.
store-specific workload calculations, which

are informed estimates of how long it takes
to complete certain activities (for example,
replenishing one pallet) in a particular store,
taking into account predefined service and
process standards
The optimal workload calculations set an

expectation for best-practice performance
while also acknowledging each stores unique
context. In activity-based scheduling, the
time allotted to each activity is a networkwide standard time that is the same for all
stores, plus any additional time due to the
specifics of each store (exhibit). The networkwide standard time in effect establishes
a best-practice benchmark for all stores.
Store-specific time drivers can then be
measured by observation.
How to calculate workloads accurately
reliable forecasts of volume drivers

(such as revenues per department per hour
and product flows) for each store, based on
sophisticated regression models as well as
store-manager experience
a flexible workforcewith a mix of full-time,
part-time, and temporary staffthat can adapt
to schedules that may change on a daily and
weekly
basis
PoR#4 2015
Smarter schedules
robust performance-management
processes
Exhibit
1 of 1
and systems, with clear productivity and
service-level targets, to ensure that all stores
are on board and comply with the plan
Exhibit
Stores should be allotted the same amount of time for the same task, with some
adjustments based on each stores unique context.
Time for activity
Total time for

store employees
to perform a
core activity in
a department
Standard
time
Target time for an
activity; should be
the same for entire
store network
46
A typical supermarket would use this model

to allot time for 50 to 150 activities (see sidebar,
One retailers results: Lower labor costs,
better store managers). Some activities
will be tricky to model. For instance, figuring
out how long it should take to ring up purchases
at checkout and how many cashiers should be
working at any one time isnt a straightforward
calculation, because customers arrive at
Store-specific
time driver
Additional time
needed due to local
store characteristics
(eg, store layout,
average basket size)
Quantity
Number of times
the activity is
performed; variable
(can be derived
from historical data)
checkouts randomly. For unpredictable

customer-facing activities such as these, retailers
will need to use queuing theory. 2
Retailers should focus on activities that
constitute a significant amount of store
employees workload. For instance, developing
a detailed model of how long it takes to adjust a
shelf to an updated planogram isnt necessary,
as this activity typically accounts for less
than 1 percent of the total workload. On the
other hand, replenishment-related activities
can take up to 70 percent of the total work
hours in a store.
Implementation and rollout

Implementing an activity-based approach
requires a tool that can turn inputs (such
as revenue forecasts and customer-footfall
estimates) into useful outputs for store
managers. Outputs might include the required
number of full-time employees per hour
and per day, the specific tasks employees
should be doing during certain hours of the
day, and the associated labor costs.
Retailers typically find it easier and faster
to build such a tool from scratch and then
inject its outputs into their existing workforce-
One retailers results: Lower labor costs, better

store managers
A large European retailer, with annual
revenues in excess of $20 billion,
knew that its stores scheduling
and budgeting processes for labor
werent rigorous enough. At every
store, both the standard weekly
staffing schedule and the annual
labor budget were based primarily on
revenues and managerial judgment.
subsequently tested the prototype

in six additional stores that were
quite different from one another,
to ensure that the tools outputs
would be relevant to the entire store
network. Along the way, the retailer
discovered and quickly implemented
a number of best practices and
process improvements.
Seeking a more data-driven

approach, the retailer decided to
pilot activity-based labor scheduling
and budgeting in two of its stores
over a four-month period. The effort
involved calculating the timing of 65
activities and building an Excel-based
prototype of a new scheduling-andbudgeting tool for labor. The retailer
The new staffing schedules and

labor budgets yielded a 6 percent
reduction in labor costs along with an
improvement in customer service
gratifying results, particularly in
light of the fact that the retailer had
recently undertaken a successful
lean-retailing transformation and in
many ways already had best-practice
store operations. Furthermore, the

approach helped expose poor store
management. For example, one
store was perceived in the company
as being well managed because
it had notably low labor costs. But
bottom-up calculation of the stores
annual labor budgets showed that
the low labor costs were entirely due
to favorable store specifics, such
as short distances for transporting
products and shelves that were
relatively easy to stock. Once labor
costs were adjusted for those
specifics, the store was shown to
be among the least efficient in the
network. These and similar insights
allowed the retailer to better evaluate
and train its store managers.
47
How quickly the tool is rolled out to the entire store

network will depend on available resources, but a storeby-store rolloutwhereby an operations coach helps
store employees learn about the new tool and any new
processesis often most effective.
management systems, rather than build the

tool within their current HR systems. In our
experience, it takes approximately six months
to develop an Excel-based prototype, pilot it
in a handful of stores to test the accuracy of all
assumptions and workload calculations, observe
its impact on the workforce, and refine it.
How quickly the tool is rolled out to the entire
store network will depend on available resources,
but a store-by-store rolloutwhereby an
operations coach helps store employees
48
learn about the new tool and any new processes

is often most effective. Leadership must ensure
that the tool is embedded into daily work
and fully linked to HR planning and annual
budgeting processes. To keep it constantly up
to date and relevant, retailers should consider
setting up a scheduling team made up of people
who have the requisite analytical skills and who
are familiar with store operations. The team would
be responsible for maintaining and updating
the tool and adjusting the workload calculations
to new processes.
1 For more on lean retailing, see Stefan Grgens, Steffen Greubel,
and Andreas Moosdorf, How to mobilize 20,000 people,
An activity-based approach can reveal opportunities Perspectives on retail and consumer goods, Winter 2013/14,
mckinsey.com.
for improving store processes. In fact, it can serve
2 Queuing theory is useful for calculating how many employees
as the backbone for a continuous-improvement
are needed at a given time to meet the retailers target service
program; ideally, the new scheduling and budgeting
level. In the checkout example, the target could be based on
waiting time (for instance, 90 percent of customers will wait on
tool would be able to run what if analyses for any
a checkout line for no more than three minutes) or queue length
changes in service levels or process standards. And
(for instance, 90 percent of customers will have a maximum of
in the event that labor budget cuts become necessary, two people in front of them at checkout).
management teamsinstead of just imposing topdown percentage cutswill be equipped to lead
Daniel Lubli is an associate principal in McKinseys
practical and detailed discussions as to which store
Zurich office, Gernot Schlgl is a principal in the
activities could be speeded up or eliminated entirely, Vienna office, and Patrik Siln is a principal in the
London office.
or where service-level targets could be relaxed.
In this way, they will be able to ensure sustained
improvements in store productivity, customer
service, and employee satisfaction, all while keeping
labor costs firmly under control.
49
Keiko Morimoto
Is your company a value creator

or a value destroyer?
By looking at performance through the lens of economic profit, retailers can better understand the
effectiveness of their business strategies.
Dymfke Kuijpers and Simon Wintels

Among global companies, the rich get richer, while
those in the middle tend to get stuck there. These
were among the findings from our colleagues
analysis of the economic-profit performance of
nearly 3,000 large nonfinancial companies in
the 200711 period. Using economic profit (EP)
calculated as net operating profit minus the cost
of capitalas a measure of value creation and an
indicator of market-beating strategy, their research
showed that just a handful of companies create most
of the value. Companies in the top quintile generated
70 times more EP than all the companies in the
middle three quintiles combined. Furthermore,
these top companies attracted a disproportionate
share of capital. And while its fairly easy for a
company to drop out of the top quintile, breaking
50
into that top tier from the middle of the pack is no

small feat.1
But what about retailers specifically? Does inequality
characterize the retail industry as well? We took
a closer look at the 237 publicly owned retail
companies included in our colleagues research and
combined that information with more recent data on
retailer performance, as well as our own experience
working with retail organizations around the world.
We discovered that tremendous disparities do
exist in retail, and the winners are by no means a
homogeneous set. Two outwardly similar companies
can have vastly different fates: one can be a value
creator, the other a value destroyer. We believe our
findings have important implications for how retail
executives and strategists should think about where

and how to compete.
Success varies acrossand within

retail segments
There are huge differences among retailers when it
comes to their ability to create value. Between 2008
PoR#4
2015
2 top-quintile retailers generated 100 times
and 2012,
Company
valuein
creator
the EP of retailers
the middle three quintiles. And
Exhibit
1
of
3
EP varied widely among retail segments, with apparel
companies, food retailers, and pure-play online
retailers being the top performers (Exhibit 1).
Exhibit 1
We estimate that publicly owned apparel companies

account for only about one-fifth of global apparel
sales, but their success is noteworthy. The 24 apparel
companies in our sample together generated $7.3
billion in EP each year on average. Of that amount,
more than half$4.8 billioncame from just three
retailers (Gap, H&M, and Zara). Vertically integrated
apparel players especially have been reliable value
creators for several years. In 1997, on average, they
generated just $100 million a year in EP; by 2012,
that number had increased more than tenfold, to
$1.1 billion, whereas other apparel retailers did not
In retail, the greatest economic profit is made by apparel retailers, while department
stores are destroying the most value.
Average profit generated, 200812, n = 237 retailers, $ billion
Apparel retail
7.3
Food retail
2.1
1.6
Internet retail
Top 3 winners
economic profit
Number
of companies
4.8
24
2.6
53
1.7
Distributors1
1.0
1.2
15
Hypermarkets and supercenters
1.0
5.3
15
Home-furnishing retail
0.8
0.8
1.2
10
0.7
Home-improvement retail
Specialty stores
0.3
0.7
17
Computer and electronic retail
0.3
1.0
15
Automotive retail
0.3
0.8
11
General-merchandise stores
0.1
0.7
14
Catalog retail
0.0
Food distributors
0.1
0.7
13
Drug retail
0.3
1.0
11
1.7
31
Department stores
4.1
1 Does not include food distributors.
Source: Analysis of data provided by McKinsey Corporate Performance Analysis Tool (a McKinsey Solution)
Is your company a value creator or a value destroyer?
51
exceed $200 million each in EP per year during that

period. Not all apparel companies are value creators,
however: six of the apparel companies in our
sample lost value, although their losses were minor
compared with retailers in other segments.
Food retailers represent the second-largest value
creators in the retail industrybut here, too, the
underlying data tell a more complex story. Among
food retailers, including hypermarkets, there were
about as many value destroyers as value creators. In
general, supermarkets with a traditional business
model outperformed other types of food retailers such
as discount food stores and convenience-store chains.
The third-richest segment, online retail, has come
far in only a few years. From 1998 to 2002, pure-play
online retailers destroyed more value than almost
every other segment. By the 200812 period, they
had increased revenues 15 times over, bending
margins from negative to positive and becoming one
of the industrys foremost value creators.
As for department stores and drug retailers, neither
group created value. Both took an especially hard hit
in the health and beauty categories, in part because
neither department stores nor drugstores responded
effectively to the increased price transparency that
the online channel offers consumers. Drugstores
also lost business to supermarkets that expanded
their nongrocery offerings and undercut drugstores
prices, while many department storessaddled
with an unclear or outdated value proposition
were challenged by new category killers such as
cosmetics chain Sephora.
That said, retailers in either segment shouldnt be
resigned to losing value. Some drugstore chains
have improved EP by adding pharmacies to their
brick-and-mortar outlets, for example. As for
department stores, its important to note that the
top three players in our sample did generate EPa
combined $1.7 billion per year from 2008 to 2012.
52
Two of the three are discount department stores.

In our sample of 13 premium department stores,
only 1British retailer Marks and Spencercreated
value between 2008 and 2012, most likely as a result
of a large-scale, multiyear restructuring effort that
began in 2001.
How winners earn a top spot

EP has four components: revenues, margins, asset
turns or asset leverage (a measure of the capacity
to extract revenue from a given quantity of assets),
and the tangible-capital ratio, which is the ratio
of physical to total capital, including goodwill.3 In
most industries, sizable revenues and high margins
are enough to earn a top spot in the EP rankings.
In retail, thats not the case; only companies that
outperformed their peers in all four components
landed in the top quintile (Exhibit 2).
The need to outperform their peers on margins
can be an especially vexing problem for retailers.
Although top-quintile retailers generate, on average,
70 percent more revenue and have nearly twice
the asset turns as top-quintile players in all other
industries, margins in retail are slim (4.6 percent
for top retailers, compared with 11.6 percent for top
companies across all industries).
Like their peers in other industries, high-performing
retailers shouldnt get too comfortable. Our research
shows that, over a ten-year period, nearly 40 percent of
top-quintile retailers dropped into the middle or lower
tiers. But losing a top spot doesnt necessarily take ten
years; at least two large retailers dropped from the top
to the bottom quintile between 2012 and 2014.
Breaking out of the middle

Even harder than holding on to a top spot is getting
there at all. Eighty percent of retailers that were in
the middle quintiles in the 19982002 period were
still in the middle ten years later, meaning they
hadnt significantly improved their ability to create
value (Exhibit 3).
PoR#4 2015
Company value creator
Exhibit 2 of 3
Exhibit 2
Only retailers that outperform their peers on all four value drivers can earn a top spot.
Average economic profit generated per year, 200812, n = 237 retailers
Top quintile
Bottom quintile
II
III
IV
Average economic
profit, $ million
733
102
97
587
Revenues, $ million
32,693
6,077
5,826
11,229
4.5
4.1
4.4
3.7
3.8
4.6
4.3
2.4
2.7
2.1
84
73
83
71
58
11
Quintile
Asset turns, times
Margins, %
Tangiblecapital ratio, %
Revenue growth,
5-year compound
annual growth rate, %
29,664
Source: Analysis of data provided by McKinsey Corporate Performance Analysis Tool (a McKinsey Solution)
Of the 143 retailers that were in the middle

quintiles in the 19982002 period, only 13
were able to break into the top tier by 2012.
Most of them had help from external trends:
almost half benefited from emerging-market
momentum and four others profited greatly
from the massive shift to online retailing.
More recent data confirm that mobility remains
an issue for middling performers; 85 percent
of retailers who were in the middle quartiles
in 2012 remained there in 2014.
Our research has several important implications for

CEOs and strategists:
Top performers. Maintaining elite status is hard

work: even a one percentage-point dip in margins
can force a top performer back to the middle of the
pack. Retailers that held on to their top spot did so
by doubling their revenues while also improving
margins, even if only slightlya 0.6 percentagepoint margin improvement sufficed.
Middle of the pack. To earn a top spot, middling
performers need to make bold moves and outdo the
competition on several fronts: for example, by investing
Is your company a value creator or a value destroyer?
53
PoR#4 2015
Company value creator
Exhibit 3 of 3
Exhibit 3
When ranked by economic profit, the majority of retailers are stuck in the middle.
Finish, 2008121
Start,
199820022
Top
quintile
Middle
quintiles
Bottom
quintile
Top
quintile
64%
23%
13%
Middle
quintiles
9%
80%
10%
Bottom
quintile
9%
36%
55%
1 Based on the largest 3,000 companies by revenues (2011). We excluded companies for which data on normalized operating profit less adjusted
taxes and average total invested capital were not available for the full 10-year period.
2 Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding.
3 Bradley, Dawson, and Smit, The strategic yardstick you cant

more heavily in revenue-management and pricing
afford to ignore. There is, mathematically, a fifth dimension of
capabilities, optimizing marketing and promotional
economic value: funding. But the weight of evidence suggests
spending, lowering costs through fact-based supplier
that companies cannot directly influence it. For the purposes of
negotiations, and examining the role of the store
this analysis, we use a global average cost of capital of 9 percent.
network in the organizations multichannel strategy.4 4 For more on the role of brick-and-mortar stores, see Louise
Low performers. For companies at the bottom,

revenue growth isnt enough. Big ideas certainly
have the potential to catapult low-performing
organizations into the upper tiers, but restructuring
might be the first order of business. Theres evidence
it can work. Macys, a bottom-quartile performer for
15 years, launched a massive restructuring program
in 2009; by 2014, it was a top performer.
1 For more about the research, see Chris Bradley, Angus Dawson,
and Sven Smit, The strategic yardstick you cant afford to

ignore, McKinsey Quarterly, October 2013, mckinsey.com.
2 Our colleagues research focused on the period from 2007 to 2011;
this article is based on retailer performance from 2008 to 2012.
54
Herring, Tobias Wachinger, and Chris Wigley, Making stores

matter in a multichannel world, Perspectives on retail and
consumer goods, December 2014, mckinsey.com.
The authors would like to thank Chris Bradley,

Natalie Davis, Jrn Kpper, Nicholas Northcote,
Jesko Perrey, Sven Smit, and Tobias Wachinger
for their contributions to this article.
Dymfke Kuijpers is a principal in McKinseys Amsterdam
office, and Simon Wintels is an associate principal in the
Tokyo office.
Growth in the packagedfood industry

The drivers of revenue growth are investment in the right markets, M&A skills,
and a pragmatic approach to execution.
Yuval Atsmon, Rogerio Hirose, and Udo Kopka
When it comes to revenue growth, it is often the
case that where you play matters more than how
well you execute. This broad conclusion about
what makes companies grow 1 certainly applies in
todays packaged-food industry: the fastest-growing
companies are those that have chosen to compete
in the fastest-growing product categories and
geographic regions.
Using our proprietary analytical approach for
decomposing company growth, we analyzed the
performance of 20 packaged-food companies in the
200812 period, disaggregating their positive and
negative revenue growth into three sources:
portfolio momentum, or the growth attributable to
market expansion in the categories and countries in
which a company plays
M&A and divestitures
execution, measured in terms of market-share
gains or losses
Our sample consists of a diverse mix of regional
leaders and global players. The granularity of
the data allows for deep, nuanced analysis. For
example, instead of simply analyzing the broad
category of bakery products, we can drill down into
subcategories: from biscuits, to sweet biscuits, and
then to chocolate-coated biscuits. We also examine
companies performance by country, not just by region.
This fine-grained view yields detailed insights as to
which factors drive a companys growth and which
factors slow it down. (Our reviews of 2013 and 2014
consumer-goods data further confirm our findings.)
Growth in the packaged-food industry
Portfolio momentum: Still by far the primary

growth driver
Between 2008 and 2012, portfolio momentum
accounted for 71 percent of total growth. Companies
doing business primarily in emerging markets or in
high-growth categories did particularly well: their
revenue growth was three times that of more geographically dispersed or more diversified companies.
The fastest-growing companies follow one of two
models. The first model, represented in the bottomleft quadrant of the exhibit, calls for a focus on a
relatively small set of high-growth subcategory and
country combinations (such as sugar-free gum in
China or fruited spoonable yogurt in Brazil). Emergingmarket companies in expansion mode typically follow
this model, and we expect that they will steadily expand
into even more subcategories and countries. The second
model, as shown in the top-right quadrant, is one that
some developed-market players have followed: they
are present in a much bigger set of subcategories and
countries. But we expect that these large companies,
rather than expanding further, will instead abandon the
least promising areas and concentrate their resources
on the highest-growth subcategories and countries.
These findings prove yet again that applying a
granular approach to growth is crucial to gaining
competitive advantage. In a business environment
where outexecuting the competition offers little
reward, a data-driven methodology for identifying the
categories and geographies with the highest growth
potential is of utmost importance.2 Company leaders
should also create mechanisms that allow them to
55
regularly and swiftly move resourcesnot just capital

spending but also personnel, marketing dollars, and
other expendituresaway from low-growth areas and
toward high-potential markets and segments.3
M&A can partially offset lack of organic growth

M&A accounted for 27 percent of revenue growth
in the 200812 period. The top two quartiles in our
sample wielded M&A as a competitive weapon, with
deal activity accounting for almost one-third of their
total growth and partially offsetting lower portfolioPoRCG_4_2015
momentum growth.

Exhibit
1 that
of 1the M&A landscape will evolve in the
We expect
next few years, as todays nascent emerging-market
companies grow in both size and aspiration and as
Exhibit
multinationals refine their strategies in response to

these new competitors. Packaged-food companies
particularly those with significant exposure in slowergrowth countries and categoriesshould build their
deal-making capabilities, so that M&A can become a
more reliable and consistently profitable growth driver.4
Execution: Table stakes, but rarely a

differentiator
As the packaged-food industry becomes increasingly
global and more competitive, execution is becoming
simultaneously more challenging and less of a
differentiator: execution outperformance accounted
for a scant 2 percent of total growth in the 200812
period. Winning market share away from competitors
has only become harder.
Geographic expansion leads to strong growth only for companies that play in
many subcategories.
x Company revenue growth, % (CAGR,1 200812)
x Average revenue growth of companies in quadrant, % (CAGR, 200812)
Number of countries
90
80
7.3
11.8
5.5
3.6
6.2
5.5
70
10.6
9.8
60
2.7
7.8
0.1
50
16.4
40
30
5.6
3.1
5.2
6.3
11.3
20
18.4
16.6
10
17.1
13.3
12.7
0
0
10
2012
company
revenue
20
30
9.3
40
50
60
70
80
90
100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Number of subcategories
1Compound
annual growth rate.
Source: Euromonitor; McKinsey analysis
56
Some companies look to new-product introductions 1 This conclusion was first put forward by Mehrdad Baghai, Sven
Smit, and Patrick Viguerie in their seminal book, The Granularity
as a way to spur growth. But the data show no
of
Growth: How to Identify the Sources of Growth and Drive
correlation between execution-related growth
Enduring Company Performance (John Wiley & Sons, 2008).
and the number of new-product introductions
2 Claudia Benshimol Severin, Rogerio Hirose, Udo Kopka,
per $1 billion in net revenue. In other words, large
Subho Moulik, Taro Nordheider, and Fbio Stul, Finding
profits and growth in emerging markets, January 2012,
companies that introduced twice as many new
products as their similar-size peers didnt fare any 3 mckinseyonmarketingandsales.com.
Michael Birshan, Marja Engel, and Olivier Sibony, Avoiding the
better or worse in revenue-growth terms. These
quicksand: Ten techniques for more agile corporate resource
findings indicate that innovation is important for
reallocation, McKinsey Quarterly, October 2013, mckinsey.com.
4 For more on how to treat M&A as a strategic capability, see
maintaining share and keeping developed-market
Cristina Ferrer, Robert Uhlaner, and Andy West, M&A as
consumers interested in a category, but in general
competitive advantage, McKinsey on Finance, August 2013,
companies havent built product-development and
mckinsey.com.
product-launch capabilities that are differentiated
The authors wish to thank Anne Martinez and Piyush
enough to help them capture market-share gains.
Sharma for their contributions to this article.
Excellence in execution is table stakes, not a trump

card. Companies should therefore take a pragmatic
approach to execution, prioritizing execution levers
in the categories and markets that matter most.
Unquestionably, packaged-food companies that

examine their business results up close can make
wiser portfolio choices. Companies should scrutinize
the performance of each of their geographic markets
and subcategories to understand the true sources of
growth. Otherwise, they risk investing in the wrong
things, missing valuable opportunities, and ultimately
losing out to more attentive and analytical rivals.
Yuval Atsmon is a principal in McKinseys London

office, Rogerio Hirose is a principal in the So Paulo
office, and Udo Kopka is a director who splits his time
between the Hamburg and Shanghai offices.
57
Contributors
Editorial-board member
Yaw Agyenim-Boateng
Associate principal
Lagos
Yuval Atsmon
Principal
London
Klaus Behrenbeck
Director
Cologne
Richard Benson-Armer
Director
Stamford
Achim Berg
Principal
Frankfurt
Peter Breuer
Director
Cologne
Peter Child
Director
Hong Kong
Sandrine Devillard
Director
Paris
Saskia Hedrich
Senior expert
Munich
Rogerio Hirose
Principal
So Paulo
Thomas Kilroy
Principal
Chicago
Udo Kopka
Director
Hamburg and Shanghai
Dymfke Kuijpers
Principal
Amsterdam
Jrn Kpper
Director
Cologne
Daniel Lubli
Associate principal
Zurich
58
Frdric Lefort
Principal
Gothenburg
Dennis Martinis
Director
Geneva
James Naylor
Senior expert
London
Jrgen Rugholm
Director
Copenhagen
Bill Russo
Director
Nairobi
Frank Snger
Director
Cologne
Nils Schlag
Principal
Dsseldorf
Gernot Schlgl
Principal
Vienna
Patrik Siln
Principal
London
Martin Stuchtey
Director
Munich
Joseph Tesvic
Principal
Sydney
Tobias Wachinger
Principal
Munich
Anja Weissgerber
Senior expert
Berlin
Simon Wintels
Associate principal
Tokyo
59
Regional contacts
Europe, Middle East, and Africa
Jrn Kpper
Director, Cologne
[email protected]
Magnusstrae 11
50672 Kln
Germany
Voice: 49 (221) 20 8 70
Southern Europe
Nicol Galante
Director, Paris
[email protected]
90, Avenue des Champs-Elyses
75008 Paris
France
Voice: 33 (1) 40 69 14 00
Austria, Germany, and Switzerland

Stefan Niemeier
Director, Hamburg
[email protected]
Sandtorkai 77
20457 Hamburg
Germany
Voice: 49 (40) 36 12 10
United Kingdom and Ireland

Alex Dichter
Director, London
[email protected]
No. 1 Jermyn Street
London SW1Y 4UH
United Kingdom
Voice: 44 (20) 7839 8040
Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa

Peter Breuer
Director, Cologne
[email protected]
Magnusstrae 11
50672 Kln
Germany
Voice: 49 (221) 20 8 70
France
Sandrine Devillard
Director, Paris
[email protected]
90, Avenue des Champs-Elyses
75008 Paris
France
Voice: 33 (1) 40 69 14 00
Northern Europe
Philip Christiani
Principal, Copenhagen
[email protected]
Ved Stranden 14
1061 Copenhagen K
Denmark
Voice: 45 3393 3030
60
September 2015
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What is the publication about?

What is the publication about?

Who are some of the editors and contributors mentioned?

Who are some of the editors and contributors mentioned?

Perspectives on retail

and consumer goods

Perspectives on retail and

Art Direction and Design

Copyright 2015 McKinsey &

This publication is not intended

Modern grocery and

Amazon Chinas president

Getting the most out

Smarter schedules, better

ALSO IN THIS ISSUE

East Africa: The next hub

Growth in the packagedfood industry

I hope you had a great summer and enjoyed some

For example, will consumer and retail companies

journal, we tackle both elementsthe first half

This edition of Perspectives on retail and consumer

Modern grocery and the

Perspectives on retail and consumer goods Autumn 2015

tradethe family-owned grocery chains, small

Why did this happen? What, if anything, did

The hypermarkets shortcomings

working so well in the developed world. But, in

A new respect for localism

Modern grocery and the emerging-market consumer: A complicated courtship

Modern-trade penetration and growth vary widely by market.

Modern-grocery penetration, 2014, %

Growth in penetration, 200914, percentage points

On the demand side, for instance, food-shopping

Perspectives on retail and consumer goods Autumn 2015

store owner, free home delivery, and credit

Another major factor affecting modern trade is

Seven strategic levers for success

they are especially critical in helping retailers

Modern grocery and the emerging-market consumer: A complicated courtship

Questions to test your emerging-market strategy

Is your pricing philosophy

2. Keep prices lowand make sure consumers know.

Perspectives on retail and consumer goods Autumn 2015

Do you understand policy

own against supermarkets. In Turkey, for example,

The channel structure in Turkish retail is changing rapidly.

Grocery retail by channel,

may not sum to 100%, because of rounding.

Source: Euromonitor International; McKinsey analysis

world: Germany. Low-price stores can establish

able to convey that message to enough consumers.

Modern grocery and the emerging-market consumer: A complicated courtship

are rising fast in emerging markets and bad habits are

Perspectives on retail and consumer goods Autumn 2015

5. Educate policy makers on the benefits of

7. Adopt a city-based strategy.

For any modern retailer, success in emerging

on initiatives taken not just by retailers but also

for gold in emerging markets, August 2012, mckinsey.com.

Is your pricing philosophy

Do you understand policy