This page is about the current warming of the Earth's climate system.

"Climate change" can also

refer to climate trends at any point in Earth's history. For other uses seeGlobal warming
(disambiguation)

Global mean surface temperature change from 1880 to 2015, relative to the 1951–1980 mean. The black line is
the annual mean and the red line is the 5-year running mean. Source: NASA GISS.

World map showing surface temperature trends (°C per decade) between 1950 and 2014. Source: NASA
GISS.[1]
Fossil fuel related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions compared to five of the IPCC's "SRES" emissions scenarios,
published in 2000. The dips are related to global recessions. Image source: Skeptical Science.

Fossil fuel related carbon dioxide emissions over the 20th century. Image source: EPA.

Global warming and climate change are terms for the observed century-scale rise in the average
temperature of the Earth's climate system and its related effects.[2]

Multiple lines of scientific evidence show that the climate system is warming.[3][4][5] Although the
increase of near-surface atmospheric temperature is the measure of global warming often reported
in the popular press, most of the additional energy stored in the climate system since 1970 has gone
into ocean warming. The remainder has melted ice and warmed the continents
and atmosphere.[6][a] Many of the observed changes since the 1950s are unprecedented over
decades to millennia.[7]

Scientific understanding of global warming is increasing. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC)reported in 2014 that scientists were more than 95% certain that global warming is
mostly being caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) and other human
(anthropogenic) activities.[8][9][10] Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that
during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to 1.7 °C (0.5 to
3.1 °F) for their lowest emissions scenario using stringent mitigation and 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F)
for their highest.[11] These findings have been recognized by the national science academies of the
major industrialized nations[12][b] and are not disputed by any scientific body of national or international
standing.[14]

Future climate change and associated impacts will differ from region to region around the
globe.[15][16] Anticipated effectsinclude warming global temperature, rising sea levels,
changing precipitation, and expansion of deserts in thesubtropics.[17] Warming is expected to be
greater over land than over the oceans and greatest in the Arctic, with the continuing retreat of
glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely changes include more frequent extreme
weather events including heat waves, droughts, heavy rainfall with floods and
heavy snowfall;[18] ocean acidification; and species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes.
Effects significant to humans include the threat to food security from decreasing crop yields and
the abandonment of populated areas due to rising sea levels.[19][20]
 Possible societal responses to global warming include mitigation by emissions
reduction, adaptation to its effects, building systems resilient to its effects, and possible
future climate engineering. Most countries are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC),[21] whose ultimate objective is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic
climate change.[22] The UNFCCC have adopted a range of policies designed to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions[23][24][25][26] and to assist in adaptation to global warming.[23][26][27][28] Parties to the UNFCCC
have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required,[29] and that future global warming should be
limited to below 2.0 °C (3.6 °F) relative to the pre-industrial level.[29][c]

On 12 November 2015, NASA scientists reported that human-made carbon dioxide (CO2) continues
to increase above levels not seen in hundreds of thousands of years: currently, about half of the
carbon dioxide released from the burning of fossil fuels is not absorbed by vegetation and the
oceans and remains in the atmosphere.[31][32][33][34]

Contents
[hide]

 1Observed temperature changes

o 1.1Trends
o 1.2Warmest years
 2Initial causes of temperature changes (external forcings)
o 2.1Greenhouse gases
o 2.2Aerosols and soot
o 2.3Solar activity
o 2.4Variations in Earth's orbit
 3Feedback
 4Climate models
 5Observed and expected environmental effects
o 5.1Extreme weather
o 5.2Sea level rise
o 5.3Ecological systems
o 5.4Long-term effects
o 5.5Large-scale and abrupt impacts
 6Observed and expected effects on social systems
o 6.1Habitat inundation
o 6.2Economy
o 6.3Infrastructure
 7Possible responses to global warming
o 7.1Mitigation
o 7.2Adaptation
o 7.3Climate engineering
 8Discourse about global warming
o 8.1Political discussion
o 8.2Scientific discussion
o 8.3Discussion by the public and in popular media
 8.3.1Surveys of public opinion
 9Etymology
 10See also
 11Notes
 12Citations
 13References
 14Further reading
 15External links

Observed temperature changes

Main article: Instrumental temperature record

2015 – Warmest Global Year on Record (since 1880) – Colors indicate temperature anomalies (NASA/NOAA;
20 January 2016).[35]

Earth has been in radiative imbalancesince at least the 1970s, where less energy leaves the atmosphere than
enters it. Most of this extra energy has been absorbed by the oceans.[36] It is very likely that human activities
substantially contributed to this increase in ocean heat content.[37]
Two millennia of mean surface temperatures according to different reconstructions from climate proxies, each
smoothed on a decadal scale, with the instrumental temperature record overlaid in black.

NOAA graph of Global Annual Temperature Anomalies 1950–2012, showing the El Niño Southern Oscillation

The global average (land and ocean) surface temperature shows a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C
in the period 1880 to 2012, based on multiple independently produced datasets.[38] Earth's average
surface temperature rose by 0.74±0.18 °C over the period 1906–2005. The rate of warming almost
doubled for the last half of that period (0.13±0.03 °C per decade, versus 0.07±0.02 °C per
decade).[39]

The average temperature of the lower troposphere has increased between 0.13 and 0.22 °C (0.23
and 0.40 °F) per decade since 1979, according to satellite temperature measurements. Climate
proxies show the temperature to have been relatively stable over the one or two thousand
years before 1850, with regionally varying fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period and
the Little Ice Age.[40]

The warming that is evident in the instrumental temperature record is consistent with a wide range of
observations, as documented by many independent scientific groups.[41] Examples include sea level
rise,[42]widespread melting of snow and land ice,[43] increased heat content of the
oceans,[41] increased humidity,[41]and the earlier timing of spring events,[44] e.g., the flowering of
plants.[45] The probability that these changes could have occurred by chance is virtually zero.[41]

Trends
Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979, land temperatures have increased about
twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25 °C per decade against 0.13 °C per decade).[46] Ocean
temperatures increase more slowly than land temperatures because of the larger effective heat
capacity of the oceans and because the ocean loses more heat by evaporation.[47] Since the
beginning of industrialisation the temperature difference between the hemispheres has increased
due to melting of sea ice and snow in the North.[48] Average arctic temperatures have been
increasing at almost twice the rate of the rest of the world in the past 100 years; however arctic
temperatures are also highly variable.[49] Although more greenhouse gases are emitted in the
Northern than Southern Hemisphere this does not contribute to the difference in warming because
the major greenhouse gases persist long enough to mix between hemispheres.[50]
The thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects mean that climate can
take centuries or longer to adjust to changes in forcing. Climate commitment studies indicate that
even if greenhouse gases were stabilized at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.5 °C
(0.9 °F) would still occur.[51]

Global temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlay long-term trends and can
temporarily mask them. The relative stability in surface temperature from 2002 to 2009, which has
been dubbed the global warming hiatus by the media and some scientists,[52] is consistent with such
an episode.[53][54] 2015 updates to account for differing methods of measuring ocean surface
temperature measurements show a positive trend over the recent decade.[55][56]

Warmest years
15 of the top 16 warmest years have occurred since 2000.[57] While record-breaking years can attract
considerable public interest, individual years are less significant than the overall trend. So some
climatologists have criticized the attention that the popular press gives to "warmest year" statistics;
for example, Gavin Schmidt stated "the long-term trends or the expected sequence of records are far
more important than whether any single year is a record or not."[58]

2015 was not only the warmest year on record, it broke the record by the largest margin by which
the record has been broken.[59] 2015 was the 39th consecutive year with above-average
temperatures. Ocean oscillations like El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can affect global average
temperatures, for example, 1998 temperatures were significantly enhanced by strong El Niño
conditions. 1998 remained the warmest year until 2005 and 2010 and the temperature of both of
these years was enhanced by El Niño periods. The large margin by which 2015 is the warmest year
is also attributed to another strong El Nino. However, 2014 was ENSO neutral.

Initial causes of temperature changes (external forcings)

Main article: Attribution of recent climate change

Greenhouse effect schematic showing energy flows between space, the atmosphere, and Earth's surface.
Energy exchanges are expressed in watts per square meter (W/m2).
This graph, known as the Keeling Curve, documents the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxideconcentrations
from 1958–2015. Monthly CO2 measurements display seasonal oscillations in an upward trend; each year's
maximum occurs during the Northern Hemisphere's late spring, and declines during its growing season as
plants remove some atmospheric CO2.

The climate system can warm or cool in response to changes in external forcings.[60][61] These are
"external" to the climate system but not necessarily external to Earth.[62] Examples of external
forcings include changes in atmospheric composition (e.g., increased concentrations of greenhouse
gases), solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions, and variations in Earth's orbit around the Sun.[63]

Greenhouse gases
Main articles: Greenhouse gas, Greenhouse effect, Radiative forcing, Carbon dioxide in Earth's
atmosphere and Earth's energy budget
See also: List of countries by carbon dioxide emissions and History of climate change science

The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by
gases in a planet's atmosphere warm its lower atmosphere and surface. It was proposed by Joseph
Fourier in 1824, discovered in 1860 by John Tyndall,[64] was first investigated quantitatively by Svante
Arrhenius in 1896,[65] and was developed in the 1930s through 1960s by Guy Stewart Callendar.[66]

Annual world greenhouse gas emissions, in 2010, by sector.

Percentage share of global cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions between 1751 and 2012 across different
regions.

On Earth, naturally occurring amounts of greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of about
33 °C (59 °F).[67][d] Without the Earth's atmosphere, the Earth's average temperature would be well
below the freezing temperature of water.[68] The major greenhouse gases are water vapor, which
causes about 36–70% of the greenhouse effect; carbon dioxide (CO2), which causes 9–
26%;methane (CH4), which causes 4–9%; and ozone (O3), which causes 3–7%.[69][70][71] Clouds also
affect the radiation balance through cloud forcings similar to greenhouse gases.

Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric
ozone, CFCsand nitrous oxide. According to work published in 2007, the concentrations of CO2 and
methane have increased by 36% and 148% respectively since 1750.[72] These levels are much higher
than at any time during the last 800,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted
from ice cores.[73][74][75][76] Less direct geological evidence indicates that CO2 values higher than this
were last seen about 20 million years ago.[77]

Fossil fuel burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in CO2 from human activity
over the past 20 years. The rest of this increase is caused mostly by changes in land-
use, particularly deforestation.[78] Estimates of global CO2 emissions in 2011 from fossil fuel
combustion, including cement production and gas flaring, was 34.8 billion tonnes (9.5 ± 0.5 PgC), an
increase of 54% above emissions in 1990. Coal burning was responsible for 43% of the total
emissions, oil 34%, gas 18%, cement 4.9% and gas flaring 0.7%[79]

Atmospheric CO2 concentration from 650,000 years ago to near present, using ice core proxy data and direct
measurements.

In May 2013, it was reported that readings for CO2 taken at the world's primary benchmark site
in Mauna Loa surpassed 400 ppm. According to professor Brian Hoskins, this is likely the first time
CO2 levels have been this high for about 4.5 million years.[80][81] Monthly global CO2concentrations
exceeded 400 p.p.m. in March 2015, probably for the first time in several million years.[82] On 12
November 2015, NASA scientists reported that human-made carbon dioxide continues to
increase above levels not seen in hundreds of thousands of years: currently, about half of the carbon
dioxide released from the burning of fossil fuels is not absorbed by vegetation and the oceans and
remains in the atmosphere.[31][32][33][34]

Over the last three decades of the twentieth century, gross domestic product per capita
and population growth were the main drivers of increases in greenhouse gas
emissions.[83] CO2 emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and land-use
change.[84][85]:71 Emissions can be attributed to different regions. Attributions of emissions due to land-
use change are subject to considerable uncertainty.[86][87]:289

Emissions scenarios, estimates of changes in future emission levels of greenhouse gases, have
been projected that depend upon uncertain economic, sociological, technological, and natural
developments.[88] In most scenarios, emissions continue to rise over the century, while in a few,
emissions are reduced.[89][90] Fossil fuel reserves are abundant, and will not limit carbon emissions in
the 21st century.[91] Emission scenarios, combined with modelling of the carbon cycle, have been
used to produce estimates of how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases might change in
the future. Using the six IPCC SRES "marker" scenarios, models suggest that by the year 2100, the
atmospheric concentration of CO2 could range between 541 and 970 ppm.[92] This is 90–250% above
the concentration in the year 1750.

The popular media and the public often confuse global warming with ozone depletion, i.e., the
destruction of stratospheric ozone (e.g., the ozone layer) by chlorofluorocarbons.[93][94] Although there
are a few areas of linkage, the relationship between the two is not strong. Reduced stratospheric
ozone has had a slight cooling influence on surface temperatures, while increased tropospheric
ozone has had a somewhat larger warming effect.[95]

Aerosols and soot

Ship tracks can be seen as lines in these clouds over the Atlantic Ocean on the east coast of the United States.
Atmospheric particles from these and other sources could have a large effect on climate through the aerosol
indirect effect.

Global dimming, a gradual reduction in the amount of global direct irradiance at the Earth's surface,
was observed from 1961 until at least 1990.[96] Solid and liquid particles known as aerosols, produced
by volcanoes and human-made pollutants, are thought to be the main cause of this dimming. They
exert a cooling effect by increasing the reflection of incoming sunlight. The effects of the products of
fossil fuel combustion – CO2 and aerosols – have partially offset one another in recent decades, so
that net warming has been due to the increase in non-CO2 greenhouse gases such as
methane.[97] Radiative forcing due to aerosols is temporally limited due to the processes that remove
aerosols from the atmosphere. Removal by clouds and precipitation gives tropospheric aerosols
an atmospheric lifetime of only about a week, while stratospheric aerosols can remain for a few
years. Carbon dioxide has a lifetime of a century or more, and as such, changes in aerosols will only
delay climate changes due to carbon dioxide.[98] Black carbon is second only to carbon dioxide for its
contribution to global warming.[99]

In addition to their direct effect by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, aerosols have indirect
effects on the Earth's radiation budget. Sulfate aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei and thus
lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more
efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets, a phenomenon known as the Twomey
effect.[100] This effect also causes droplets to be of more uniform size, which reduces growth of
raindrops and makes the cloud more reflective to incoming sunlight, known as the Albrecht
effect.[101] Indirect effects are most noticeable in marine stratiform clouds, and have very little
radiative effect on convective clouds. Indirect effects of aerosols represent the largest uncertainty in
radiative forcing.[102]

Soot may either cool or warm Earth's climate system, depending on whether it is airborne or
deposited. Atmospheric soot directly absorbs solar radiation, which heats the atmosphere and cools
the surface. In isolated areas with high soot production, such as rural India, as much as 50% of
surface warming due to greenhouse gases may be masked by atmospheric brown clouds.[103] When
deposited, especially on glaciers or on ice in arctic regions, the lower surface albedo can also
directly heat the surface.[104] The influences of atmospheric particles, including black carbon, are
most pronounced in the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly in Asia, while the effects of greenhouse
gases are dominant in the extratropics and southern hemisphere.[105]

Changes in Total Solar Irradiance(TSI) and monthly sunspot numbers since the mid-1970s.
Contribution of natural factors and human activities to radiative forcing of climate change.[106] Radiative forcing
values are for the year 2005, relative to the pre-industrial era (1750).[106] The contribution of solar irradiance to
radiative forcing is 5% the value of the combined radiative forcing due to increases in the atmospheric
concentrations of carbon dioxide,methane and nitrous oxide.[107]

Solar activity
Main article: Solar activity and climate

Since 1978, solar irradiance has been measured by satellites.[108] These measurements indicate that
the Sun's radiative output has not increased since 1978, so the warming during the past 30 years
cannot be attributed to an increase in solar energy reaching the Earth.

Climate models have been used to examine the role of the Sun in recent climate change.[109] Models
are unable to reproduce the rapid warming observed in recent decades when they only take into
account variations in solar output and volcanic activity. Models are, however, able to simulate the
observed 20th century changes in temperature when they include all of the most important external
forcings, including human influences and natural forcings.

Another line of evidence against the Sun having caused recent climate change comes from looking
at how temperatures at different levels in the Earth's atmosphere have changed.[110] Models and
observations show that greenhouse warming results in warming of the lower atmosphere (called
the troposphere) but cooling of the upper atmosphere (called the stratosphere).[111][112] Depletion of
the ozone layerby chemical refrigerants has also resulted in a strong cooling effect in the
stratosphere. If the Sun were responsible for observed warming, warming of both the troposphere
and stratosphere would be expected.[113]

Variations in Earth's orbit

Main article: Milankovitch cycles

The tilt of the Earth’s axis and the shape of its orbit around the Sun vary slowly over tens of
thousands of years and are a natural source of climate change, by changing the seasonal and
latitudinal distribution of solar insolation.[114]

During the last few thousand years, this phenomenon contributed to a slow cooling trend at high
latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during summer, a trend that was reversed by greenhouse-gas-
induced warming during the 20th century.[115][116][117][118]

Variations in orbital cycles may initiate a new glacial period in the future, though the timing of this
depends on greenhouse gas concentrations as well as the orbital forcing. A new glacial period is not
expected within the next 50,000 years if atmospheric CO2concentration remains above 300
ppm.[119][120]

Feedback
Main articles: Climate change feedback and Climate sensitivity

Sea ice, shown here in Nunavut, in northern Canada, reflects more sunshine, while open ocean absorbs more,
accelerating melting.

The climate system includes a range of feedbacks, which alter the response of the system to
changes in external forcings. Positive feedbacks increase the response of the climate system to an
initial forcing, while negative feedbacks reduce it.[121]

There are a range of feedbacks in the climate system, including water vapor, changes in ice-
albedo (snow and ice cover affect how much the Earth's surface absorbs or reflects incoming
sunlight), clouds, and changes in the Earth's carbon cycle (e.g., the release of carbon
from soil).[122] The main negative feedback is the energy the Earth's surface radiates into space
as infrared radiation.[123] According to theStefan-Boltzmann law, if the absolute temperature (as
measured in kelvin) doubles,[e] radiated energy increases by a factor of 16 (2 to the 4th power).[124]

Feedbacks are an important factor in determining the sensitivity of the climate system to increased
atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Other factors being equal, a higher climate
sensitivity means that more warming will occur for a given increase in greenhouse gas
forcing.[125] Uncertainty over the effect of feedbacks is a major reason why different climate models
project different magnitudes of warming for a given forcing scenario. More research is needed to
understand the role of clouds[121] and carbon cycle feedbacks in climate projections.[126]

The IPCC projections previously mentioned span the "likely" range (greater than 66% probability,
based on expert judgement)[8] for the selected emissions scenarios. However, the IPCC's projections
do not reflect the full range of uncertainty.[127] The lower end of the "likely" range appears to be better
constrained than the upper end.[127]

Climate models
Main article: Global climate model
Calculations of global warming prepared in or before 2001 from a range of climate models under theSRES A2
emissions scenario, which assumes no action is taken to reduce emissions and regionally divided economic
development.
Projected change in annual mean surface air temperature from the late 20th century to the middle 21st century,
based on a medium emissions scenario(SRES A1B).[128] This scenario assumes that no future policies are
adopted to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Image credit: NOAAGFDL.[129]

A climate model is a representation of the physical, chemical and biological processes that affect the
climate system.[130] Such models are based on scientific disciplines such as fluid
dynamics and thermodynamics as well as physical processes such as radiative transfer. The models
may be used to predict a range of variables such as local air movement, temperature, clouds, and
other atmospheric properties; ocean temperature, salt content, and circulation; ice cover on land and
sea; the transfer of heat and moisture from soil and vegetation to the atmosphere; and chemical and
biological processes, among others.

Although researchers attempt to include as many processes as possible, simplifications of the actual
climate system are inevitable because of the constraints of available computer power and limitations
in knowledge of the climate system. Results from models can also vary due to different greenhouse
gas inputs and the model's climate sensitivity. For example, the uncertainty in IPCC's 2007
projections is caused by (1) the use of multiple models[127] with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas
concentrations,[131] (2) the use of differing estimates of humanity's future greenhouse gas
emissions,[127] (3) any additional emissions from climate feedbacks that were not included in the
models IPCC used to prepare its report, i.e., greenhouse gas releases from permafrost.[132]

The models do not assume the climate will warm due to increasing levels of greenhouse gases.
Instead the models predict how greenhouse gases will interact with radiative transfer and other
physical processes. Warming or cooling is thus a result, not an assumption, of the models.[133]

Clouds and their effects are especially difficult to predict. Improving the models' representation of
clouds is therefore an important topic in current research.[134] Another prominent research topic is
expanding and improving representations of the carbon cycle.[135][136][137]

Models are also used to help investigate the causes of recent climate change by comparing the
observed changes to those that the models project from various natural and human causes.
Although these models do not unambiguously attribute the warming that occurred from
approximately 1910 to 1945 to either natural variation or human effects, they do indicate that the
warming since 1970 is dominated by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.[63]

The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate contemporary or past
climates.[138] Climate models produce a good match to observations of global temperature changes
over the last century, but do not simulate all aspects of climate.[139] Not alleffects of global
warming are accurately predicted by the climate models used by the IPCC. Observed Arctic
shrinkage has been faster than that predicted.[140] Precipitation increased proportionally to
atmospheric humidity, and hence significantly faster than global climate models predict.[141][142] Since
1990, sea level has also risen considerably faster than models predicted it would.[143]

Observed and expected environmental effects

Main article: Effects of global warming

Projections of global mean sea level rise by Parris and others.[144] Probabilities have not been assigned to these
projections.[145] Therefore, none of these projections should be interpreted as a "best estimate" of future sea
level rise. Image credit: NOAA.

Anthropogenic forcing has likely contributed to some of the observed changes, including sea level
rise, changes in climate extremes (such as the number of warm and cold days), declines in Arctic
sea ice extent, glacier retreat, and greening of the Sahara.[146][147]

During the 21st century, glaciers[148] and snow cover[149] are projected to continue their widespread
retreat. Projections of declines in Arctic sea ice vary.[150][151] Recent projections suggest that Arctic
summers could be ice-free (defined as ice extent less than 1 million square km) as early as 2025-
2030.[152]

"Detection" is the process of demonstrating that climate has changed in some

defined statistical sense, without providing a reason for that change. Detection does not imply
attribution of the detected change to a particular cause. "Attribution" of causes of climate change is
the process of establishing the most likely causes for the detected change with some defined level of
confidence.[153] Detection and attribution may also be applied to observed changes in physical,
ecological and social systems.[154]

Extreme weather
Main articles: Extreme weather and Physical impacts of climate change § Extreme events

Changes in regional climate are expected to include greater warming over land, with most warming
at high northern latitudes, and least warming over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North
Atlantic Ocean.[155]

Future changes in precipitation are expected to follow existing trends, with reduced precipitation
over subtropical land areas, and increased precipitation at subpolar latitudes and
some equatorial regions.[156] Projections suggest a probable increase in the frequency and severity of
some extreme weather events, such as heat waves.[157]

A 2015 study published in Nature Climate Change, states: About 18% of the moderate daily
precipitation extremes over land are attributable to the observed temperature increase since pre-
industrial times, which in turn primarily results from human influence. For 2 °C of warming the
fraction of precipitation extremes attributable to human influence rises to about 40%. Likewise, today
about 75% of the moderate daily hot extremes over land are attributable to warming. It is the most
rare and extreme events for which the largest fraction is anthropogenic, and that contribution
increases nonlinearly with further warming. [158][159]

Data analysis of extreme events from 1960 till 2010 suggests that droughts and heat waves appear
simultaneously with increased frequency.[160] Extremely wet or dry events within the monsoon period
have increased since 1980.[161]

Sea level rise

Map of the Earth with a six-meter sea level rise represented in red.
Main articles: Sea level rise and Retreat of glaciers since 1850
Sparse records indicate that glaciers have been retreating since the early 1800s. In the 1950s measurements
began that allow the monitoring of glacial mass balance, reported to the World Glacier Monitoring
Service(WGMS) and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Sea level rise, has been estimated to be on average 2.6 mm and 2.9 mm per year ± 0.4 mm since
1993. Additionally, sea level rise has accelerated during the past two decades.[162] Over the 21st
century, the IPCC projects for a high emissions scenario, that global mean sea level could rise by
52–98 cm.[163] The IPCC's projections are conservative, and may underestimate future sea level
rise.[164] Other estimates suggest for the same period that global mean sea level could rise by 0.2 to
2.0 m (0.7–6.6 ft), relative to mean sea level in 1992.[144]

Widespread coastal flooding would be expected if several degrees of warming is sustained for
millennia.[165] For example, sustained global warming of more than 2 °C (relative to pre-industrial
levels) could lead to eventual sea level rise of around 1 to 4 m due to thermal expansion of sea
water and the melting of glaciers and small ice caps.[165] Melting of the Greenland ice sheet could
contribute an additional 4 to 7.5 m over many thousands of years.[165] It has been estimated that we
are already committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 meters for each degree of
temperature rise within the next 2,000 years.[166]

Warming beyond the 2 °C target would potentially lead to rates of sea-level rise dominated by ice
loss from Antarctica. Continued CO2 emissions from fossil sources could cause additional tens of
meters of sea level rise, over the next millennia and eventually ultimately eliminate the entire
Antarctic ice sheet, causing about 58 meters of sea level rise.[167]

Ecological systems
Main article: Climate change and ecosystems

In terrestrial ecosystems, the earlier timing of spring events, and poleward and upward shifts in plant
and animal ranges, have been linked with high confidence to recent warming.[168] Future climate
change is expected to particularly affect certain ecosystems, including tundra, mangroves, and coral
reefs.[155] It is expected that most ecosystems will be affected by higher atmospheric CO2levels,
combined with higher global temperatures.[169] Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in
the extinction of many species and reduced diversity of ecosystems.[170]
Increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations have led to an increase in ocean acidity.[171] Dissolved
CO2 increases ocean acidity, which is measured by lower pH values.[171] Between 1750 to 2000,
surface-ocean pH has decreased by ≈0.1, from ≈8.2 to ≈8.1.[172]Surface-ocean pH has probably not
been below ≈8.1 during the past 2 million years.[172] Projections suggest that surface-ocean pH could
decrease by an additional 0.3–0.4 units by 2100.[173] Future ocean acidification could threaten coral
reefs, fisheries, protected species, and other natural resources of value to society.[171][174]

Ocean deoxygenation is projected to increase hypoxia by 10%, and triple suboxic waters (oxygen
concentrations 98% less than the mean surface concentrations), for each 1 °C of upper Ocean
warming.[175]

Long-term effects
Main article: Long-term effects of global warming

On the timescale of centuries to millennia, the magnitude of global warming will be determined
primarily by anthropogenic CO2 emissions.[176] This is due to carbon dioxide's very long lifetime in the
atmosphere.[176]

Stabilizing the global average temperature would require large reductions in CO2 emissions,[176] as
well as reductions in emissions of other greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrous
oxide.[176][177] Emissions of CO2 would need to be reduced by more than 80% relative to their peak
level.[176] Even if this were achieved, global average temperatures would remain close to their highest
level for many centuries.[176]

Long-term effects also include a response from the Earth's crust, due to ice melting and deglaciation,
in a process called post-glacial rebound, when land masses are no longer depressed by the weight
of ice. This could lead to landslides and increased seismic and volcanic activities. Tsunamis could
be generated by submarine landslides caused by warmer ocean water thawing ocean-floor
permafrost or releasing gas hydrates.[178] Some world regions, such as the French Alps, already
show signs of an increase in landslide frequency.[179]

Large-scale and abrupt impacts

Main article: Abrupt climate change
See also: Cold blob (North Atlantic)

Climate change could result in global, large-scale changes in natural and social
systems.[180] Examples include the possibility for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to
slow- or shutdown, which in the instance of a shutdown would change weather in Europe and North
America considerably, ocean acidification caused by increased atmospheric concentrations of
carbon dioxide, and the long-term melting of ice sheets, which contributes to sea level rise.[181]

Some large-scale changes could occur abruptly, i.e., over a short time period, and might also
be irreversible. Examples of abrupt climate change are the rapid release ofmethane and carbon
dioxide from permafrost, which would lead to amplified global warming, or the shutdown of
thermohaline circulation.[182][183] Scientific understanding of abrupt climate change is generally
poor.[184] The probability of abrupt change for some climate related feedbacks may be
low.[182][185] Factors that may increase the probability of abrupt climate change include higher
magnitudes of global warming, warming that occurs more rapidly, and warming that is sustained
over longer time periods.[185]

Observed and expected effects on social systems

Further information: Effects of global warming § Social systems and Regional effects of global
warming § Regional impacts
See also: Climate change and national security

The effects of climate change on human systems, mostly due to warming or shifts
in precipitation patterns, or both, have been detected worldwide. Production of wheat and maize
globally has been impacted by climate change. While crop production has increased in some mid-
latitude regions such as the UK and Northeast China, economic losses due to extreme
weather events have increased globally. There has been a shift from cold- to heat-related mortality
in some regions as a result of warming. Livelihoods ofindigenous peoples of the Arctic have been
altered by climate change, and there is emerging evidence of climate change impacts on livelihoods
of indigenous peoples in other regions. Regional impacts of climate change are now observable at
more locations than before, on all continents and across ocean regions.[186]

The future social impacts of climate change will be uneven.[187] Many risks are expected to increase
with higher magnitudes of global warming.[188] All regions are at risk of experiencing negative
impacts.[189] Low-latitude, less developed areas face the greatest risk.[190] A study from 2015
concluded that economic growth (Gross domestic product) of poorer countries is much more
impaired with projected future climate warming, than previously thought.[191]

A meta analysis of 56 studies concluded in 2014 that each degree of temperature rise will increase
violence by up to 20%, which includes fist fights, violent crimes, civil unrest or wars.[192]

Examples of impacts include:

 Food: Crop production will probably be negatively affected in low latitude countries, while effects
at northern latitudes may be positive or negative.[193] Global warming of around 4.6 °C relative to
pre-industrial levels could pose a large risk to global and regional food security.[194]
 Health: Generally impacts will be more negative than positive.[195][196][197] Impacts include: the
effects of extreme weather, leading to injury and loss of life;[198] and indirect effects, such
as undernutrition brought on by crop failures.[196][197][199]
Habitat inundation