Mit15 S50iap15 l1 Intro Poker Course

15.
S50 - Poker Theory and Analytics

Introduction
Table of Contents
Introduction
Course Info
Grading
Gameplay
Course League (PokerStars)
How to Study
Defining Winning
Perspective of the Course
Beginner Concepts
Course Info
When: MWF 3:30PM 5:00PM, Jan 3 Jan 30
Additional Review T/R 3:30PM 5:00PM 4-159
Instructor: Kevin Desmond
Faculty Advisor: Paul Mende
Level: 3 H Units
Course Info
All course info will be posted online
Gameplay
Assignments
Three cases
Lectures
Grading
Gameplay
Cash in one Beginners Only Daily Turbo
or
Play in ten Beginners Only Daily Turbos
Pass all three cases
Attend at least 6 of 8 lectures
Gameplay
The gameplay requirement will be completed in a private
online league called MIT Poker Theory and Analytics on
PokerStars
PokerStars
TM
Real Money
Play Money
PokerStars
TM
PokerStars
TM
Public Games
Home Games
10
PokerStars MIT League

TM
11
12
13
14
PokerStars
Name Choice
Smith_MIT
JSmith_MIT
JohnSmith_MIT
Makes it clear who we are playing against
Avoids getting stuck with embarrassing screen name
OMGClayAiken
15
OMGClayAiken
David Benyamine, Phil "OMGClayAiken" Galfond
Biggest Cash Game Winners on Full Tilt in 2008
According to HighStakesDB.com, Benyamine
has made over $3.6 million dollars so far in
2008 (as of August 24th, 2008). Phil
"OMGClayAiken" Galfond is in second place,
nearly a million dollars behind Benyamine, with
a total profit of $2.75 million dollars.
Source: "David Benyamine, Phil "OMGClayAiken" Galfond Biggest Cash Game Winners on Full Tilt in 2008." www.poker-king.com 25 Aug. 2008
16
PokerStars Hand Histories

TM
17
18
19

Goals
Create a competitive online environment
to practice techniques from class in real situations
to compete against others playing correctly
to collect stats to analyze playing styles
Earn credit for the course via playing poker
20

Total Points determines prize eligibility (top 15 or so)
Points per Game (PPG) determines order
23

Beginners Tournament Series (Gameplay Requirement)
6PM, 8PM, 10PM (Beginners Only) Daily Turbos every day
Top 20% cashes
Passing requirements
Cash in at least one daily turbo
or
Play in at least 10 daily turbos
Earns no Tournament Leaderboard (TLB) Points
Every player must start playing Beginners Turbos
Players graduate to Prize League after one cash
24
Tournament League Structure

Beginners League
Start
here!
(Beginners Only)
Daily Turbo
Prize League
Daily Turbo
Gameplay Credit
Cash in 1 Turbo
or
Play in 10 Turbos
Weekly Major

Prize League
For players with at least one cash in the Beginners League

Over 100 tournaments scheduled
Awards 1 TLB point for each registered player
Top 20% cashes, but this doesnt count towards anything
Daily Schedule
6:00 PM - Daily Turbo (Starting Week 2)

9:00 PM - Daily Hyper-Turbo (Starting Week 2)
Weekly Majors
Sundays 2pm Weekly Deepstack Turbo (Real Prizes)
25
Prize League Sponsors

TM
TM
TM
TM
TM
TM
TM
26
League Prizes
An iPad Mini from Jane Street
A GoPro from Citadel
Private coaching from Will Ma
Kindle Paperwhite and $100 Amazon Gift Card from
Prismata
A customized poker chip set from SIG
Lots of books donated by Ed Miller, Jon Tannen, Jared
Tendler, Verneer, Doug Zare and Andy Bloch
27
TM
Weekly Majors
Saturday, Jan 10, 2PM Major Warm-up (TLB Points Only)
Saturday, Jan 17, 2PM Akuna Major I
Saturday, Jan 24, 2PM Akuna Major II
28
TM
Akuna I Prize Pool

Beats Wireless Headphones
Apple TV
Bose Speakers
$300 in Gift Cards
29
TM
Akuna II Prize Pool

iPad Air
iPad Mini
Beats Wireless Headphones
Apple TV
Bose Speakers
$200 in Gift Cards
30
TM
Live Optiver Tournament

Saturday Jan 31, 2PM Optiver Tournament
31
TM
Optiver Prize Pool

An iPad 4
An iPad Air
An iPad Mini
A PlayStation 4
A Kindle Fire
A GoPro Camera
Bose Speakers
An Apple TV
Beats Headphones
$400 in gift cards
32
Schedule
Basic Strategy
Analysis Techniques and Applications
Preflop Analysis
Tournament Play
Poker Economics
Game Theory
Decision Making
Schedule (Guest Speakers)

Analytical Techniques (Joel Fried)
Poker Economics (Aaron Brown)
Game Theory (Bill Chen)
Decision Making (Matt Hawrilenko)
34
How to Study
C Fundamental Concepts
P Practice
A Advanced Techniques
35
Concepts
Basic framework for decision-making
Focus on un-exploitable play
Solid ABC poker
36
Advanced Techniques
Deriving decision rules
Exploitive play
Metagame concepts
37
Practice
Techniques to apply concepts in real-time
Developing rules of thumb
Determining sensitivity of decision rules to rounding
Identifying factors impacting live performance
38
How to Define Winning

Cash Games
BB/100 hands (online) or BB/Hour (live) [5 BB / 100 or 5 BB / hour]
Tournaments
Return on Investment (ROI) [30% for MTTs, 15% for SnGs]
General
Hourly [$50 - $200/ hour]
Perspective of the Course

Most of the views are from an online MTT grinder
Focusing primarily on ROI
Some consideration to hourly
Focus on Live Tournaments
Prefer conservative, low-variance play
42
Basic Tools and Concepts

PokerTracker and Hand Replayer
Stack, Effective Stack
Harrington's M Ratio
43
PokerTracker
Poker analytical software
TM
Imports PokerStars HHs

Includes additional poker tools
such as Equity Calc, ICM, etc
Three-month subscription for
members of Poker Class
Install instruction sent via email
44
Universal Replayer
Poker HH visualizer software
Reads hand history text files
Many other features
Freeware
45
Universal Replayer
46
Stack Size
Stack Size = Value of Chips in front of you
Effective Stack Size = Min (Your Stack, Biggest Stack
Still in Play)
Effective Stack Size = Most amount of chips you can lose
in a hand
We are basically always talking about effective stack
47
Dan Harrington
Action Dan
Generally considered solid
Tight-Aggressive ABC Player
Won 1995 WSOP Main Event
Two WSOP Bracelets
One WPT Title
flipchip on Wikimedia Commons. License: CC BY-SA. This

content is excluded from our Creative Commons license. For
more information, see http://ocw.mit.edu/help/faq-fair-use/.
56
Temperaments in Poker
Solid
ABC
Tight
(Calls Seldom)
Loose
(Calls Often)
Aggressive
(Bets Often)
Passive
(Bets Infrequently)
TAG
TP
Weak
Complete
Fish
LAG
Calling Machine
58
Dan Harrington
Strategic Play
Endgame
Workbook
Harrington, Dan and Bill Robertie. Harrington on Holdem Expert Strategy for No Limit
Tournaments,
Vol. I: Strategic Play. Two Plus Two Pub, 2004.
Vol. II: The Endgame. Two Plus Two Pub, 2005.
Vol. III: The Workbook. Two Plus Two Pub, 2006.
59
M Ratio
Invented by Paul Magriel
Magriel
Backgammon theorist
Most backgammon tournament wins in the world
Commentator for WSOB
flipchip on Wikimedia Commons. License: CC BY-SA. This

content is excluded from our Creative Commons license. For
more information, see http://ocw.mit.edu/help/faq-fair-use/.
Eight WSOP final tables

Really good at math
60
M Ratio
Harringtons M Ratio
M = Effective Stack / Sum of Blinds and Antes
In other words, its the amount of rounds you can survive
until you are blinded out
And more importantly, its the ratio of your stack to the
value of stealing the blinds
A way to normalize the decision making process across
different blind levels
Other Harrington Ratios

Q ratio = Stack size / average players stack
Effective M ratio = M * Number of Players/10
MIT OpenCourseWare
http://ocw.mit.edu
15.S50 Poker Theory and Analytics

January IAP 2015
For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit: http://ocw.mit.edu/terms.

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What is the gameplay requirement for the course?

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What are some of the tools discussed for analyzing poker play?

What are some of the tools discussed for analyzing poker play?

15.

S50 - Poker Theory and Analytics

PokerStars MIT League

PokerStars MIT League

PokerStars MIT League

PokerStars MIT League

PokerStars Hand Histories

PokerStars Hand Histories

PokerStars Hand Histories

PokerStars MIT League

PokerStars MIT League

PokerStars MIT League

Tournament League Structure

PokerStars MIT League

For players with at least one cash in the Beginners League

6:00 PM - Daily Turbo (Starting Week 2)

Sundays 2pm Weekly Deepstack Turbo (Real Prizes)

Prize League Sponsors

Akuna I Prize Pool

Akuna II Prize Pool

Live Optiver Tournament

Optiver Prize Pool

Schedule (Guest Speakers)

How to Define Winning

Hourly [$50 - $200/ hour]

Perspective of the Course

Basic Tools and Concepts

Imports PokerStars HHs

flipchip on Wikimedia Commons. License: CC BY-SA. This

flipchip on Wikimedia Commons. License: CC BY-SA. This

Eight WSOP final tables

Other Harrington Ratios

15.S50 Poker Theory and Analytics

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