Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) Luay Kadhum Hameed
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) Luay Kadhum Hameed
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) Luay Kadhum Hameed
(PERT)
Prepared By
CHAPTER 1
Introduction
A project defines a combination of interrelated activities that
must be executed in a certain order before the entire task can be
completed. The activities are interrelated in a logic sequences in the sense
that some activities cannot start until others are completed .An activity in
a project is usually viewed as a job requiring time and resources for its
completion .In general ,a project is a one time effort ;that is, the same
sequence of activities may not be repeated in the future.
In the past ,the scheduling of a project (over time) was done with little
specifies the start and finish for each activity on a horizontal time scale .
Its disadvantage is that the interdependency between the different
activities(which mainly controls the progress of the project)cannot be
determined from the bar chart .The growing complexities of today's
project have demanded more systematic and more effective planning
techniques with the objective of optimizing the efficiency of executing
the project .Efficiency here implies effecting almost reduction in the time
CHAPTER 2
Project management
project management
The application of a collection of tools and techniques to direct the
use of diverse resources towards the accomplishment of a unique,
complex, one time task within time, cost and quality constraints.
Its origins lie in World War II, when the military authorities used
the techniques of operational research to plan the optimum use of
resources.
One of these techniques was the use of networks to represent a
system of related activities
Project Network
Event
Signals the beginning or ending of an activity
Designates a point in time
Represented by a circle (node)
Network
Shows the sequential relationships among activities using
nodes and arrows
Activity-on-node (AON)
nodes represent activities, and arrows show precedence
relationships
Activity-on-arrow (AOA)
arrows represent activities and nodes are events for points in time
Lay
foundation
3
Design house
and obtain
financing
3
2
Dummy
0
1
Order and
receive
materials
4
Select 1
paint
Build
house
3
1
Finish
work
1
Select
carpet
Lay foundations
Build house
4
3
2
2
Start
Finish work
7
1
1
3
Design house
and obtain
financing
3
1
Order and receive
materials
5
1
6
1
Select carpet
Select paint
C
Fig (2-3)
A
B
D
Fig (2-5) both A and C must finish before either of B or D can start
B
Dummy
D
Fig (2-6) A must finish before B can start
both A and C must finish before D can start
Lay
foundation
Lay
foundatio
n
Dumm
y
Order
material
Incorrect
precedence
relationship
Order
material
(a)
Correct
precedence
relationship
(b)
CHAPTER 3
CPM - Critical Path Method
History of CPM
E I Du Pont de Nemours & Co. (1957) for construction of new
chemical plant and maintenance shut-down
Deterministic task times
Activity-on-node network construction
Repetitive nature of jobs
Planning a project usually involves dividing it into a number of small
tasks that can be assigned to individuals or teams. The projects schedule
depends on the duration of these tasks and the sequence in which they are
arranged. This sequence can be driven by several factors: customer
deadlines, availability of personnel or resources, and dependencies among
tasks.
DuPont developed a Critical Path Method (CPM) designed to address the
challenge of shutting down chemical plants for maintenance and then
restarting the plants once the maintenance had been completed.
Once the activities and their sequences have been defined, the CPM
diagram can be drawn. CPM originally was developed as an activity on
node network.
4. Estimate activity completion time
The time required to complete each activity can be estimated using past
experience. CPM does not take into account variation in the completion
time.
5. Identify the Critical Path
The critical path is the longest-duration path through the network. The
significance of the critical path is that the activities that lie on it cannot be
delayed without delaying the project. Because of its impact on the entire
project, critical path analysis is an important aspect of project planning.
The critical path can be identified by determining the following four
parameters for each activity:
ES - earliest start time: the earliest time at which the activity can start
given that its precedent activities must be completed first.
EF - earliest finish time, equal to the earliest start time for the activity
plus the time required to complete the activity.
LF - latest finish time: the latest time at which the activity can be
completed without delaying the project.
LS - latest start time, equal to the latest finish time minus the time
required to complete the activity.
The slack time for an activity is the time between its earliest and latest
start time, or between its earliest and latest finish time. Slack is the
amount of time that an activity can be delayed past its earliest start or
earliest finish without delaying the project.
The critical path is the path through the project network in which none of
the activities have slack, that is, the path for which ES=LS and EF=LF for
all activities in the path. A delay in the critical path delays the project.
Similarly, to accelerate the project it is necessary to reduce the total time
required for the activities in the critical path.
6. Update CPM diagram
As the project progresses, the actual task completion times will be known
and the network diagram can be updated to include this information.
A new critical path may emerge, and structural changes may be made in
the network if project requirements change.
CPM calculation
Path
A connected sequence of activities leading from the starting
event to the ending event
Critical Path
The longest path (time); determines the project duration
Critical Activities
All of the activities that make up the critical path
Forward Pass
The forward pass goes from the initial task (the task with no
predecessors) to the final task (the one with no successors), visiting every
task in every path and setting the ES and EF dates on the tasks.
The algorithm is similar to graph theorys depth-first search, except that
the forward pass follows every path from initial to final task, while depthfirst search stops when it arrives at a task that its already visited. When
the forward pass arrives at a task, it may change that tasks ES and EF
dates, and that change must be carried forward to the final task. During
the forward pass, a task may be visited several times as different paths
through the network are followed. A tasks ES is determined by the
predecessor task with the latest EF, since a task cant start until all of its
predecessors have finished.
Earliest Start Time (ES)
earliest time an activity can start
ES = maximum EF of immediate predecessors
Earliest finish time (EF)
earliest time an activity can finish
earliest start time plus activity time EF= ES + t
Backward Pass
he backward pass goes from the final task to the initial task, visiting
every task in every path and setting the LS and LF dates on the tasks.
Its similar to the forward pass in that it arrives at a task, it may
change that tasks LS and LF dates, and that change must be carried
back to the initial task. The difference is:
The forward pass sets the tasks latest ES, as determined by the EFs
of its predecessors
The backward pass sets the tasks earliest LF, as determined by the
LSs of its successors.
The reason for the backward passs rule for setting LF is not as
obvious as the forward passs rule. Any start date, ES or LS, must be
after the corresponding finish dates of all of the tasks predecessors.
To maintain this consistency, the backward pass must set a tasks LF
to a value thats earlier than the LS of any of the tasks successors.
Latest Start Time (LS)
Latest time an activity can start without delaying critical path time
LS= LF - t
Latest finish time (LF)
latest time an activity can be completed without delaying critical path
time
LS = minimum LS of immediate predecessors
CPM analysis
Draw the CPM network
Analyze the paths through the network
Determine the float for each activity
Compute the activitys float
float = LS - ES = LF - EF
Float is the maximum amount of time that this activity can
be delay in its completion before it becomes a critical
activity, i.e., delays completion of the project
Find the critical path is that the sequence of activities and events
where there is no slack i.e.. Zero slack
Longest path through a network
Find the project duration is minimum project completion time
CHAPTER 4
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Optimistic time (OT) - generally the shortest time in which the activity
can be completed. (This is what an inexperienced manager believes!)
Most likely time (MT) - the completion time having the highest
probability. This is different from expected time. Seasoned managers
have an amazing way of estimating very close to actual data from prior
estimation errors.
Pessimistic time (PT) - the longest time that an activity might require.
The expected time for each activity can be approximated using the
following weighted average:
Expected time = (OT + 4 x MT+ PT) / 6
This expected time might be displayed on the network diagram.
Variance for each activity is given by: [(PT - OT) / 6]2
5. Determine the Critical Path
The critical path is determined by adding the times for the activities in
each sequence and determining the longest path in the project. The
critical path determines the total time required for the project.
If activities outside the critical path speed up or slow down (within
limits), the total project time does not change. The amount of time that a
non-critical path activity can be delayed without delaying the project is
referred to as slack time.
If the critical path is not immediately obvious, it may be helpful to
determine the following four quantities for each activity:
ES - Earliest Start time
EF - Earliest Finish time
LS - Latest Start time
LF - Latest Finish time
These times are calculated using the expected time for the relevant
activities. The ES and EF of each activity are determined by working
forward through the network and determining the earliest time at which
an activity can start and finish considering its predecessor activities.
The latest start and finish times are the latest times that an activity can
start and finish without delaying the project. LS and LF are found by
working backward through the network. The difference in the latest and
earliest finish of each activity is that activity's slack.
The critical path then is the path through the network in which none of
the activities have slack.
The variance in the project completion time can be calculated by
summing the variances in the completion times of the activities in the
critical path. Given this variance, one can calculate the probability that
the project will be completed by a certain date.
Since the critical path determines the completion date of the project, the
project can be accelerated by adding the resources required to decrease
the time for the activities in the critical path. Such a shortening of the
project sometimes is referred to as project crashing.
6. Update as project progresses
Make adjustments in the PERT chart as the project progresses. As the
project unfolds, the estimated times can be replaced with actual times. In
cases where there are delays, additional resources may be needed to stay
on schedule and the PERT chart may be modified to reflect the new
situation.
PERT analysis
PERT is based on the assumption that an activitys duration follows
a probability distribution instead of being a single value
Three time estimates are required to compute the parameters of an
activitys duration distribution:
=Variance: Vt =2
tp + 4 tm + to
6
tp - to
Probability computation
Determine probability that project is completed within specified time
=Z
Where
x-
Probabilit
y
= tp
Time
PROJECT COST
Cost consideration in project
Project managers may have the option or requirement to crash the
project, or accelerate the completion of the project.
This is accomplished by reducing the length of the critical path(s).
The length of the critical path is reduced by reducing the duration
of the activities on the critical path.
If each activity requires the expenditure of an amount of money to
reduce its duration by one unit of time, then the project manager
selects the least cost critical activity, reduces it by one time unit,
and traces that change through the remainder of the network.
As a result of a reduction in an activitys time, a new critical path
may be created.
When there is more than one critical path, each of the critical paths
must be reduced.
If the length of the project needs to be reduced further, the process
is repeated.
Project Crashing
Crashing
reducing project time by expending additional resources
Crash time
an amount of time an activity is reduced
Crash cost
cost of reducing activity time
Goal
reduce project duration at minimum cost
Activity crashing
Crash
cost
Crashing
activity
Slope = crash cost per unit time
Normal Activity
Normal
cost
Normal
time
Crash
time
Activity time
Act
ivit
y
cos
t
co
st
Direct cost
time
Figure(4-3) Time-Cost Tradeoff
Case study
CPM
PERT
PERT/COST
PERT/CPM Chart
A project has been defined to contain the following list of activities along
with their required times for completion
Activity
No
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Activity
Requirements
collection
Screen design
Report design
Database design
User documentation
Programming
Testing
Installation
Expected
completion time
5
Dependency
6
7
2
6
5
3
1
1
1
2,3
4
4
6
5,7
TE = 20
TE = 11
2
8
1
TE = 14
TE = 23
TE = 12
TE = 19
TE = 22
5
TE = 14
8
1
4
TE = 12
TE = 19
TE = 22
Rule: if two or more activities precede an activity, the one with the largest
TE is used in calculation (e.g., for activity 4, we will use TE of activity 3
but not 2 since 12 > 11).
TE = 5
1
5
TE = 14
TE = 23
8
1
4
TE = 12
TE = 19
TE = 22
PERT
Pessimistic
Time (Hr.)
8
5
3
6
1.5
5
5
7
8
4.5
7
3
A
F
G
Activity
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
Expected Time
6
4
3
5
1
4
2
6
5
3
5
Activity ES
A
0
EF
6
LS
0
Variance
4/9
4/9
0
1/9
1/36
1/9
4/9
1/9
1
1/9
4/9
LF Slack
6
0 *critical
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
0
6
6
6
9
9
13
13
19
18
4
9
11
7
13
11
19
18
22
23
5
6
15
12
9
16
14
13
20
18
9
9
20
13
13
18
20
18
23
23
5
0*
9
6
0*
7
1
0*
1
0*
2612.
5000.
PERT/COST
Activity Normal Normal Crash
time
cost RS time
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
12
8
4
12
4
4
4
3000
2000
4000
50000
500
500
1500
75000
7
5
3
9
1
1
3
Allowable
Crash
crash
cost
time
5000
5
3500
3
7000
1
71000
3
1100
3
1100
3
22000
1
110700
slope
400
500
3000
7000
200
200
7000
2
8
1
2
7
4
1
1
2
3
4
5
4
6
4
R500
R7000
2
8
12
Project duration = 36
R700
7
4
12
3
4
R400
R3000
5
4
R200
6
4
R200
Project
duration = 31
Additional cost
= R2000
R500
R7000
2
8
12
R700
7
4
R400
3
4
R3000
5
4
R200
6
4
R200
Summary
Program evaluation and review technique (PERT) charts depict
task, duration, and dependency information. Each chart starts with an
initiation node which is the first task. Each task is represented by a node
CPM Benefits
Provides a graphical view of the project.
Predicts the time required to complete the project.
Shows which activities are critical to maintaining the schedule and
which are not.
CPM Limitations
While CPM is easy to understand and use, it does not consider the time
variations that can have a great impact on the completion time of a
complex project. CPM was developed for complex but fairly routine
projects with minimum uncertainty in the project completion times.
For less routine projects there is more uncertainty in the completion
times, and this uncertainty limits its usefulness.
Benefits of PERT
PERT is useful because it provides the following information:
Expected project completion time.
Probability of completion before a specified date.
The critical path activities that directly impact the completion time.
The activities that have slack time and that can lend resources to critical
path activities.
Activities start and end dates.
Limitations of PERT
The following are some of PERT's limitations:
The activity time estimates are somewhat subjective and depend on
judgment. In cases where there is little experience in performing an
activity, the numbers may be only a guess. In other cases, if the person or
group performing the activity estimates the time there may be bias in the
estimate.
The underestimation of the project completion time due to alternate
paths becoming critical is perhaps the most serious.