Bernd Gottschalk, Ralf Kalmbach Mastering Automotive Challenges 2007
Bernd Gottschalk, Ralf Kalmbach Mastering Automotive Challenges 2007
Bernd Gottschalk, Ralf Kalmbach Mastering Automotive Challenges 2007
ii
With special thanks to the co-authors who helped in making this book: Axel Koch, Dr
Sari Abwa, Juri Wagenleitner, Norbert Dressler and Thorsten Mattig, Roland Berger
Strategy Consultants.
Publishers note
Every possible effort has been made to ensure that the information contained in this book is
accurate at the time of going to press, and the publishers and authors cannot accept responsibility for any errors or omissions, however caused. No responsibility for loss or damage
occasioned to any person acting, or refraining from action, as a result of the material in this
publication can be accepted by the editor, the publisher or any of the authors.
First published in Great Britain and the United States in 2007 by Kogan Page Limited
Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or
review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication
may only be reproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form or by any means, with the prior
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outside these terms should be sent to the publishers at the undermentioned addresses:
120 Pentonville Road
London N1 9JN
United Kingdom
www.kogan-page.co.uk
iii
Contents
Major challenges
The automotive industry sets the course for the global economy
Bernd Gottschalk
v
1
3
25
46
69
103
146
171
217
219
iv
Contents
241
252
270
290
314
334
Conclusion
Ralf Kalmbach
345
Index
368
Preface
vi
Preface
Part I
Major challenges
Major challenges
into state coffers in 26 countries. This proves that the automotive industry
has also assumed sociopolitical responsibility, and its contribution to the
future of our national economies is greater than that of almost any other
industry. The car is indispensable to society, and the automotive industry is
equally indispensable to the development of our communities.
Unit labour costs have been slashed in the last three years, mainly due
to lasting productivity gains, but also because Germany has finally
stopped granting workers sizeable pay rises. As a result, the country
now leads the field only in absolute wage figures. This was a
necessary step by unions and management, and one that will gradually
improve Germanys ability to compete on cost.
At the same time, the average operating time in the German metal
working and electrical engineering industry rose from 45 hours a week
in 1989 to just under 59 hours in 2004.
Major challenges
the world? And will manufacturers and suppliers still be able to maintain
the technological lead in the automotive market that they have achieved
together over the past decades? It is not just the automotive business
model that will decide how much of the industrys future value is created
in Germany a comprehensive Germany business model is what will
determine this.
One thing is certain: political attempts to talk Eastern Europe into
raising taxes and wages, or to label foreign investments by German
industry (which depends on global networks) as unpatriotic, are not likely
to protect jobs in Germany, and nor are penalties on value created
overseas. These are actions by countries that have already admitted defeat
in the battle to stay competitive. Germany has no need for them.
Passenger car plants in Germany are still far from working at optimal
capacity. And production capacities in Europe will go up from 18.6
million to 20 million cars by 2011, an 8 per cent rise.
The new production sites being opened by French/Japanese and
Korean OEMs in Central and Eastern Europe (with additional capacities in excess of 1 million cars a year) present a new challenge for the
competitiveness of the German automotive industry, especially in the
lower and mid-range price segments.
National boundaries are becoming blurred: value chain links that
would previously have been clearly allocated along national lines are
becoming multidomestic.
The cost competition affects the main car-producing nations of Europe in
the wake of European globalization that has followed EU enlargement
and the increase in competition it has brought between member states. But
it also affects the North American OEMs, who face enormous competition
from the Japanese, Koreans and Germans. In the not too distant future, the
presence of Chinese or Indian car makers and brands on the worlds other
car markets will cause competition to intensify once again, just as the
presence of German products in China or India is creating new market
opportunities for German industry.
Major challenges
10
Major challenges
11
seeing a significant upturn. In the last two years, new vehicle numbers have
risen by 20 per cent. Supported by the rise in demand for low-pollutant
vehicles and the launch of digital tachographs and new vehicle concepts,
85,500 vehicles over 6 tonnes were sold in Germany in 2005. In the international markets, German car makers achieved a new export record in
2005, selling 115,800 vehicles over 6 tonnes. Thanks to their strong international business and the continuing positive sales balance in Germany,
manufacturers of vehicles over 6 tonnes saw their production in 2005
increase by a further 5 per cent, to a record volume of 168,800 vehicles.
This took them past the 400,000 mark for the first time, with a total of
407,500 commercial vehicles manufactured in Germany. Internationally,
too, German OEMs produced more commercial vehicles than ever before.
Trans-European logistics and the need for modern commercial vehicles
that meet the latest emissions standards even before they become law are
forcing commercial fleet operators to renew their fleets. German
commercial vehicle manufacturers have been extremely successful
because they meet these growing demands and focus rigorously on technology leadership.
12
Major challenges
13
14
Major challenges
15
has already prepared the ground for the next technological leap in the
reduction of nitrogen oxides (NOx), which can help the diesel engine
make a decisive breakthrough in other markets, primarily the United
States. Clean diesel is the key buzzword that will boost the presence
of this technology in emerging markets that do not yet have a sizeable
diesel segment, such as China. The growth market of India already
has a high share of diesel vehicles, and this represents an opportunity
that will be exploited by German OEMs. Some of our global
competitors may be putting their efforts into other engine technologies. Admittedly, they will gain a positive image as early starters,
but this is because they do not have the same technological potential
with the diesel, on either the manufacturing or the supply side. SCR
technology combined with the additive Ad Blue (VDAs Ad Blue
trademark is now registered worldwide as a fuel as well as the related
vehicle technology) or the Bluetec technology show that the German
automotive industry was also the first to tackle the tricky subject of
removing NOx from diesel emissions, the last remaining environmental questionmark.
The global market for premium products has grown at double the pace
of the global automotive market since 2000, registering 10 per cent
growth. A market potential of almost 10 million vehicles worldwide
seems realistic for 2010. This growth is primarily down to the ever
wider distribution of models with premium features outside the traditional domain of premium and executive cars as well as sports cars.
Premium features are increasingly being offered successfully in the
compact and sport utility vehicle (SUV) classes. And growth is set to
continue in the years to come.
No other industry sector invests as much in new technologies as the
German automotive industry. It has invested N16 billion and employs
86,000 people in R&D, including one-fifth of all the engineers
working in German industry. Most importantly, the German automotive industry occupies the top spot in the number of automotive
patents. Giving up this position, or letting cost, quality and technology leadership do battle against each other, is unthinkable.
Although electronics have been particularly helpful in developing
safety features ABS, ESP, airbag, collision avoidance radar, night
vision and so on doing away with them would lead directly to
simpler technology. This would make it easier to achieve stable
processes, which is a basic requirement for quality. However, it would
meet neither the heightened demands of the customers nor the general
framework in high-wage Germany. Treading this path would already
be very difficult for the German, and even for the European or North
16
Major challenges
17
The market for cars costing less than N10,000 is growing in Europe,
and even more so globally. Many of the worlds markets, like India,
will increasingly focus on vehicles around the N5,000 and perhaps
even the N2,000 mark. These categories are only feasible on the cost
side if considerably more value is generated in low-wage countries.
However, even in Germany, this market segment is more than 50 per
cent served by German products although some are made in Brazil
so there are clearly considerable opportunities to be had here. Behind
this development lies the fundamental question whether Germany
might only be able to manufacture premium cars in the future, perhaps
being forced to give up the production of volume vehicles.
In the automobile business, finance and leasing are unavoidable to
enable large swathes of the population to fulfil their desire to have
their own car. Cheap financing deals are driving the new growth
markets in particular. Around 75 per cent of new cars registered in
Germany are bought through leasing or financing, with half of the
deals arranged by automotive banks. This activates an important area
of growth and employment potential in this key industry, which is
basing more and more of its future business on automobile-related
services. In addition to the 770,000 people directly employed by car
makers and automotive suppliers in Germany, a further 18,000 work at
financial subsidiaries in Germany, 11,000 of them at manufacturers
own banks and leasing companies.
Financial services have thus become a significant source of revenue.
Even when automobile sales have been slow, automotive banks have still
enjoyed good growth rates. Automotive banks and leasing firms have
more than doubled their total assets in the past 10 years, and they now
total almost N80 billion. The total assets of Germanys five automotive
banks and leasing firms alone exceeded N63 billion in 2004. OEMs own
banks account for more than 70 per cent of financial services sales, with
85 per cent of that amount coming from the leasing business. Car
insurance, the third largest segment in the insurance industry, represents
a further pillar of automotive financial services, with annual sales in
excess of N22 billion. Insurance brokerage by car dealers now accounts
for about 30 per cent of policies taken out a figure that continues to rise.
Car-related services are one of the most important trends to have
been recognized by the German automotive industry early on. The
growing separation of car ownership and car usage is another. 76,000
people were registered with car-sharing organizations in 2005, their
numbers rising by more than 10 per cent over the previous year. This
market is growing disproportionately fast, although for the time being
it remains a small part of the total market.
18
Major challenges
19
20
Major challenges
1991 has more than halved, with just under 5,400 people killed in
Germany in 2005, and the downward trend is continuing.
However, there is increasing evidence that the most important
potential for further improvements in vehicle safety can only be realized
if partners work together and share the workload intelligently. That is
why CARS 21 advocates an integrated approach in this area too,
involving not just vehicle technology but the road infrastructure and road
users as well. The Commission will present suggestions for the
successive introduction of vehicle regulations. These include things like
the electronic stability programme (ESP), safety belt warning indicator,
brake assistant, as well as direct and indirect visibility, ISOFIX child
restraint systems and daytime running lamps. In terms of road infrastructure, it will recommend a monitoring and evaluation system that will
help all parts of the road system adjust to the more exacting standards. It
will even include the criminal prosecution of those driving under the
influence of alcohol or drugs, or speeding, especially since these are
among the main causes of accidents. And finally, positive opportunities
like the e-Call system should be used to make a big improvement to
emergency services callouts. It is of the utmost importance that the
injured are treated within the first hour of an accident.
In the past, German automobile manufacturers and suppliers were
pioneers when it came to road safety, and road safety has since become a
key means of differentiation, proof of technology leadership and therefore
of a brands position. Efforts to improve safety will therefore continue to
be one of the Germans strategic priorities.
21
German OEMs are not about to put all their eggs in one basket in the
hope that it is the right one. What they will adopt is a more varied approach:
The Germans are not starting from scratch. On the contrary, increasingly
efficient engines have been reducing our dependency on oil for years. The
average fuel consumption of a new German car is 25 per cent lower than it
was in 1990 and a massive 40 per cent lower than in 1970. Half of all new
cars made by German OEMs in 2004 run on less than 6.5 litres per 100
kilometres. More than 250 models of German cars consume less than 6.5
litres, with 48 models even managing to keep their fuel consumption
under 5 litres. These cars have played a big part in the continuous
reduction of CO2 emissions from road traffic since 1999. By 2004, CO2
emissions were 15 million tonnes lower than in 1999. This makes road
transport the sector with the highest CO2 reduction over this period.
Furthermore, exhaust emissions were also cut by up to 97 per cent.
Hybrid technology represents another focus for R&D activities in the
coming years. The German automotive industry sees the hybrid being
used primarily in areas where it can play to its advantages. Where there
are rapid changes in driving speed, such as driving in city traffic, a hybrid
engine can save fuel and cut emissions. The American and Japanese
markets are leading the way in terms of hybrid vehicles. By 2015, hybrid
vehicles are expected to account for about 15 per cent of cars on the road
in the United States. In Europe, the hybrid is competing against a strong
diesel market, which is making its breakthrough much more difficult.
German car makers are already working in partnership with each other
and in collaboration with global partners in this area. And it is not true that
they are late in starting, or that they have the wrong strategic priorities.
The United States, for example, has two to three diesel cars to every
hybrid vehicle. Therefore, manufacturers that have a lower than average
presence in the diesel segment should be the ones asking themselves if
they missed the boat.
22
Major challenges
23
24
Major challenges
25
26
Major challenges
CAGR
-0.6%
CAGR
+12.5%
CAGR
+13.5%
27
39.9
39.0
2000
2004
42.3
19.2
10.8
6.5
2000
2004
2010E
2010E
There is a catch, however. Auto makers and component suppliers who turn
their attention to these new markets will only meet with success if they do
not see them as new sales regions only. Each one of these markets has its
own highly individual economic structures, sociodemographic layers and
customer needs. The example of the four tiger economies Indonesia,
Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand powerfully underscores this
contention (Figure 2.2). Which vehicle types people most prefer varies
considerably. Pick-ups are the most popular purchase in Thailand, against
SUVs/minivans in Indonesia and the Philippines, for example. Also, the
import quota in three of these countries (Malaysia is the only exception) is
upward of 80 per cent (Figures 2.3 and 2.4).
Population
2004 (million)
Indonesia
242
970
5.1
15
Malaysia
24
4,601
7.0
207
Philippines
87
975
6.1
Thailand
65
2,490
6.2
39
28
Major challenges
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
17
65
13
37
41
12
53
Thailand
Pickups
SUV minivans
1 5
23
32
Subcompact
Mid-range
38
6 2
26
Luxury
Other
Indonesia
Malaysia
14
87
22
2
1
Philippines
12
63
81
Thailand
84
Japan
USA
5 2
Europe
4 4 2
Korea
Local/other
It follows that viable strategies for these markets necessitate specific products
for specific countries or regions, suitable sales channels, and appropriate
communication with the buyers. It is vital to accurately anticipate both
demand structures and the factors that influence purchase decisions, and then
to supply products tailored to precisely these needs. In Asias upwardly
mobile economies, vehicles do not normally need quite so much elaborate
29
4,490
1%
12%
17%
40%
25%
A0
7%
5%
A00
2004
2010E
2,640
1%
12%
24%
34%
611
1%
11%
26%
39%
8% 15%
2000
22%
30
Major challenges
79%
74%
Production costs1
2001
2002
2003
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
78
EU
504
Eastern Europe
439
South America
384
20
78
1,209
North America
31
79
63
55
40
60
80
100
Capacity utilization in 2004 (%)
32
Major challenges
Growth rate
Q1 2005 against
Q1 2004
15
Nissan
10
Toyota
DaimlerChrysler
Avg. market
growth: -0.4%
Honda
Ford
-5
GM
VW
-10
-15
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
Figure 2.8 Passenger car sales and growth rates for the largest OEMs
in the United States, first quarter 2005
Source: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
33
34
Major challenges
can be explained in rational terms. An automobile is, after all, still a very
emotionally charged product whose benefit is perceived to far surpass the
mere guarantee of mobility. Seen from this angle, every planned product
launch is in effect a gamble whose probability of success or failure can at
best only be guessed. And big gambles inherently go hand in hand with
high risks.
The growing economic implications of these risks pose a serious
problem to car makers. With competition merciless and profit margins
often razor-thin, one or two flops can often spell doom for the company.
Without the financial backing of DaimlerChrysler, the Smart subsidiary,
for instance, would long since have suffered this fate.
The crucial issue is therefore the ability to devise visionary brand and
product strategies for highly unpredictable markets. Solid planning structures and processes are a must, obviously. To anticipate the trends that will
really take off and translate these into just the right products nevertheless
also demands a good nose, the ability to take bold entrepreneurial decisions and a decent helping of good fortune.
The key focus should, however, always be on clear answers to two
questions. What exactly does the brand stand for? And what attributes can
and do existing and potential buyers want to associate with the brand?
This issue has often been neglected in the past. Jaguar, for example, learnt
the painful lesson that British luxury cannot simply be mapped onto the
volume segment, even if the brand itself rightly belongs in the premium
segment. Conversely, the VW Phaeton shows how hard it can be and how
long it can take to gain a foothold in new premium segments that break
with brand tradition. Interestingly, customers evidently perceive that the
VW Touareg itself an expensive, luxurious sport utility vehicle (SUV)
is more authentic and fits better with the brand. Although the Phaeton and
Touareg share a lot of the same technology, it is the latter that is scoring
impressive sales successes.
True, there are no patent recipes. Even so, formulating a successful
brand and product portfolio strategy remains the pivotal challenge to car
makers today.
35
Relentless pressure to cut costs and innovate in this industry will drive
up the proportion of outsourced value further still. By focusing on their
specific core competencies, specialized component suppliers can improve
quality and achieve scale effects that benefit the entire value chain.
This compulsion to specialize throws up a series of strategic questions
to which auto makers must again find clear and consistent answers:
Vehicle production
57 m
64 m
77 m
6575%
7080%
Value contributed by
component suppliers/
service providers
6070%
Value contributed
by OEMs
3040%
2535%
2530%
2002
2005
2010
36
Major challenges
32,757
27,852
25,017
22,811
21,998
21,462
18,020
Bosch
Denso
Delphi
Magna
18,934
18,409
Aisin
Seiki
17,084
Lear
Note: Currencies are translated at the value dates for the financial statements in each financial year.
If anything, auto makers will in future have to give even greater consideration to component suppliers than in the past. Complementing their core
competencies in development and production, OEMs will also have to
concentrate heavily on forging strategic partnerships and designing efficient collaborative processes and structures. Success will, by definition,
become a collaborative achievement.
37
EURO 4 limits
Emission
limits
100%
80%
60%
Diesel
Diesel NOx
HC + NOx
CO
Partikel
40%
20%
0.25
0.30
0.50
0.025
0%
1975
CO
1985
HC
1995
HC + NOx
2005
NOx
In g/km
(CO = carbon monoxide; HC =
hydrocarbon; NOx = nitrogen oxide)
38
Major challenges
60
50,000
50
50 (1950)
40,000
40
30,000 (1988)
30,000
30 (1980)
30
20,000
20
13 (2000)
10,000
10
0
1950
1980
2000
2010
0
1950
8,000 (1998)
1980
5,600 (2000)
2,800 (2010)
2000
2010
39
40
Major challenges
Toyota, however, has managed to position itself as the quality and environmental technology leader. It is selling cars that customers want to buy.
It is also growing profitably: In 2004, volume sales jumped 10.5 per cent
year on year, while sales revenues were up 7.3 per cent. Another plant is
slated for construction in the United States in the near future in order to
accommodate growing demand in this market (see Figure 2.13).
GM
Toyota
Year founded
1908
1937
321
260
8.1
6.7
13
(Chevrolet, Pontiac, Buick,
Cadillac, GMC, Saturn,
Hummer, Saab, Holden,
Opel, Vauxhall, Daewoo,
Isuzu)
5
(Lexus, Toyota, Hino,
Daihatsu, Scion)
1622
1653
-6.62
15.13
20.3
128.9
Junk bond
AAA
1) Financial years end December 31, 2004 (GM) and March 31, 2005 (Toyota)
2) Automotive and other operations
3) Non-financial services business
CAGR sales,
200004
41
Avg: 4.6%
20%
Porsche
15%
Hyundai
Kia
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-5%
Suzuki
Mazda
Peugeot
GM
Ford
Fiat
Toyota
Honda
Nissan
Avg:
4.5%
BMW
VW
Renault
DaimlerChrysler
Mitsubishi
0%
5%
10%
15%
Avg.:
10.8%
ROCE,
200004
(%)
Top
performers
29%
Avg.:
0.5%
Low
performers
38%
ROCE, 2004 (%)
42
Major challenges
43
44
Major challenges
The question is, how can these success factors be condensed into a
framework that can provide clear orientation to managers in the auto-
1 Company size
Sales
< US$ 0.5 bn
2 Product portfolio
Focused
Diversified
Diversified
4 R&D spending
Low
(< 2% of sales)
Sales
< US$ 5 bn
45
Sales
> US$ 0.5 bn
Medium
(24% of sales)
High
(> 4% of sales)
Medium
High
Less successful
component suppliers
tomorrows winners?
The value chain challenge networks: the strategy for success.
The technology challenge progress or pitfall?
The market challenge who will gain strategic control?
The social challenge increasing social and political acceptance of the
automobile.
In the case studies featured in Part II, top managers of leading auto makers
describe how they are rising to these challenges, what problems have to be
surmounted, and what opportunities are opening up.
46
The globalization
challenge is the
automotive industry
raising the champions
of tomorrow?
Dr Thomas Sedran, Partner, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
General Motors (GM), Ford and Chrysler have lost more than 15
percentage points of their North American market share since the early
1980s. It has gone primarily to Toyota and other Japanese original
equipment manufacturers (OEMs), but also to the Koreans. Apparently,
even in their home market, the big three of yesteryear are putting up little
opposition to the Japanese invasion, as evident in their continued loss of
market share. Even in Europe, Asian brands have passed the 17 per cent
mark in terms of market share.
Now Chinese and Indian manufacturers such as Geely and Tata have
declared their intention to conquer the worlds key automotive markets.
On the supplier side, new competitors are springing up in emerging
markets as well. They are growing at incredible speed through joint
ventures and acquisitions. Buying the latest technologies, they are going
up against established vendors and snapping up orders.
Is the automotive industry raising the champions of tomorrow as globalization progresses? Who will emerge triumphant out of the globalization
battle only those who buy and drive the cars? What are the key challenges established suppliers and newcomers face as a result of globalization, and how can both groups master them?
47
48
Major challenges
1912
1920
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
and this tendency is likely to rise considering the growth rates being
observed in China, India, Russia and the ASEAN countries.
Moreover, Figure 3.2 highlights the growing amount of networking
in the automotive industry across the regions. While just 8.7 per cent of
the worldwide demand was handled cross-regionally in the mid-1960s,
the figure exceeds 15 per cent today. As excess capacities grow in
China and Eastern Europe, this rate will continue to increase in the
years to come.
49
2004
North America
Western Europe
8,37
8.37
7.28
7,28
North America
Western Europe
0.25
6,62
6.62
14.71
0.6
1.11
1.76
0.24
0.14
1.13
1.79
0.98
0.19
0.04
1.4
0.63
1.31
0.6
Other regions
Export
8.48
11,99
11.99
0.9
Japan
Production
0.05
Other regions
Japan
Demand
50
Major challenges
ROW
3%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
7%
8%
8%
8%
9%
Asian
23%
23%
24%
25%
26%
28%
30%
31%
33%
34%
34%
65%
62%
61%
59%
58%
57%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Big 3
74%
1995
73%
1996
71%
1997
70%
1998
68%
1999
Note: The big three are GM, Ford and Chrysler. Asian = Japan + other Asian OEMs
annual growth rate (CAGR) respectively in the period from 1994 to 2004,
Kia and Hyundai were the fastest-growing car brands in the United States.
Similar to Toyota, the Koreans are also upgrading their brand perception
on the back of quality, which consequently enables them to raise their
prices. Kia and Hyundai have already progressed to the lower midsection
of the market in terms of price. The entry-level market segments they have
freed up extend an open invitation to the burgeoning Chinese auto
makers, which will soon begin to follow these proven patterns to develop
a presence in the American market. Besides the growing market opportunities created by the upward price movement of the established Asian
manufacturers, the development is accelerated by the current excess
capacities of 2.5 to 3 million vehicles in China (with a rising tendency), as
well as the growth of the market in China itself, which is lagging behind
expectations. Initial announcements of companies intentions to import
hundreds of thousands of vehicles into the United States to sell locally
have set things in motion.
51
52
Major challenges
ROW
38%
Asian
8%
39%
8%
41%
41%
37%
11%
11%
11%
20%
20%
23%
33%
31%
32%
33%
13%
13%
13%
14%
22%
23%
22%
21%
28%
28%
25%
23%
15%
14%
16%
19%
23%
25%
25%
23%
French
26%
24%
German
28%
29%
29%
28%
28%
32%
33%
33%
32%
34%
34%
33%
35%
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
53
globally? Will the meteoric rise of the Japanese and Koreans now be
followed by the decade of the Chinese and Indians?
There are certain arguments to support this assumption. Asian manufacturers have used the growing acceptance of Japanese and Korean brands
in North America and Europe to adjust their prices upwards. In recent
years, this has created a gap in the price spectrum, which now opens the
door for Chinese, Indian and Central and Eastern European OEMs. Initial
indications that they will fill the gap are emerging.
Chinas largest auto maker, SAIC, has secured key technology and
brand rights from Rover. Nanjing Automobile bought the Rover plant,
complete with its English workforce with their automotive industry experience. Brilliance, BMWs joint-venture partner, will offer its flag ship
ZhongHua car, with its C and D class ambitions, for the incredibly low
price of 19,000 on the German market. The Dacia Logan, built in
Romania, exceeded Renaults first year sales forecasts by far, selling
almost 13,000 vehicles. Theoretically at least, Chinese and Indian manufacturers benefit from very low-cost production factors, especially
personnel costs but in other cost areas too, given that statutory regulations
concerning the equipment and safety of workstations, for example, are
minimal. Indian car makers Tata and Maruti are also preparing to enter the
European market.
Another catalyst that will aid the rapid rise of Chinese and Indian manufacturers is their easy access to know-how. Thanks partly to mandatory
government requirements (such as licence regulations) and supported by
the outstanding growth opportunities in emerging markets with no
existing brand loyalties, new car makers from the emerging markets are
finding partners at minimal cost who will help and guide them in the lowcost production of good cars that are also suitable for selling in established
markets. The current stagnation of the triad markets further aids this
development, given that the growing demand in China and India makes it
possible to continue to employ highly competent workers in the short term
at reasonable cost.
At first glance, very little seems to contradict the fast emergence of the
Chinese, Indian and Central European newcomers, especially in view of
the enormous progress made in recent years coupled with the will that
these countries have to propel themselves into a better future. On the
other hand, many ambitious companies expansion strategies have failed
in the past. With the exception of Hyundai, no newcomer has made it into
the premier league in the past 20 years. The list of those that failed to
make the grade is long: Proton from Malaysia, Avtovaz/Lada from
Russia, Kia and Daewoo from Korea and Mahindra from India. Many
others have been taken over or play only a regional role.
54
Major challenges
6.5% CAGR
55
355
1995
Exports
[USD bn]
2005
10.6% CAGR
83.2
42.3
2000
2005
Inflation
10.2%
[%]
4.3%
1995
2005
Major challenges
56
that the absolute rate of wage increases is already higher here than in
emerging markets. According to an EIU scenario (see Figure 3.6), the
absolute difference between hourly wages will actually grow in the
coming years. Moreover, the anticipated productivity increase in
emerging markets will be significantly higher than in the triad markets. As
a result, product cost advantages will shift even further in favour of the
emerging markets.
Average wage costs [b/hour]
37.3
33.2
34.0
25.2
25.8
26.5
22.8
23.5
24.3
32.9
30.0
24.3
22.7
22.5
19.5
20.3
17.0
16.9
29.1
22.4
21.1
22.0
25.0
36.6
37.1
29.2
29.0
29.6
25.9
26.7
37.0
Germany
EU-15
USA
27.6
18.4
X 11
X 28
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.4
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
1.8
2.1
2008
2009
2.4 Russia
China
India
2010
57
2007
Million households
1.2
5.2
32.5
75.5
Emerging ~ 2,300
54
Aspirant ~ 980
Poor ~ 440
Million households
87.7
44
33
20.2
16.5
In 2007, more than 80 million households will have adequate disposable income to afford a car
The impact of increasing disposable income is evident in consumer goods markets
1) Based on purchasing power parity, this is the equivalent of US$100,000 per household
58
Major challenges
Feature
Ranking1)
Driving comfort
Maintenance
After-sales service
Fuel consumption
Price
Equipment
Appearance
Other
Resale value
Total
lifecycle
cost
59
10,000
Peugeot
107
Citron
C1
Kia Picanto
(8,700-10,800)
Hyundai Atos
(8,600-10,400)
Toyota Aygo
Fiat Panda
Maruti Zen
(7,200-7,400)
7,500
Dacia Logan
Fiat Palio
(6,000-7,000)
VW Fox
(5,50010,500)
Daewoo Matiz
(8,000-10,300)
Tata Indica
(5,600-6,200)
5,000
Maruti 800
Geely HQ
Xiali (3,500-6,000)
Chery QQ
2,500
Eastern
Europe
China
India
Brazil
Production country
South
Korea
emphasis on vehicles and brands that are especially known for durability
and reliability, whereas people in the south and south-east tend to go for
international brands.
60
Major challenges
North-west
underdeveloped region
North
Beijing and vicinity
North-east
old industrial region
East
South-west
mountain region
South
Central China
Home of DongfengAuto and PSA
and Nissan joint ventures
165
Energy
Chinese
model
19
123
OEM JV
20
-17
-2
Direct
wages
R&D
Cost advantages
of Chinese OEMs
Components
Overheads
Sales
Taxes
Depreciation
Cost disadvantages
of Chinese OEMs
61
where prices are falling significantly while vehicle sales and service standards are rising to allow companies to differentiate themselves from the
competition.
62
Major challenges
and liquidity angle, this strategy sometimes makes economic sense given
that the production costs of older models are significantly lower because
the products are less complex, and they allow manufacturers to attain
market-specific objectives more easily. Naturally such strategies are also
less capital-intensive, because they use machines and tools that have
already been amortized.
In an era of liberalized markets, this type of approach increasingly
appears to be doomed to failure. In the premium segment, the trend was
evident even before this. Mercedes-Benzs attempt in the mid-1990s to
continue production in India of the E Class type W124, manufactured
in core markets from 1985 through 1994 but no longer built in Europe,
failed miserably. After all, customers who were able to afford the high
price tag for this E Class wanted to drive around not in a discontinued
model, but in the very same one they had seen on their trips to Europe.
Overall, established car makers, particularly those in the volume
segment, are facing the challenge of having to technically slim down
products featuring complex engineering for emerging markets in order to
align their costs with local spending abilities. On the other hand, their
design and features must be such that local customers do not feel they are
driving an outdated model. In this context, adaptations to local customer
preferences are absolutely crucial. Part of the reason that Volkswagen lost
market share in China was because it simply ignored the preferences of its
Chinese customers. Appropriate strategies for this booming market would
have been to offer the Jetta instead of the Golf and the Fox instead of the
Polo.
63
answer. Our experience shows that established auto makers can deliver
such vehicles only if they take a radical approach:
taking consistent advantage of cost benefits resulting from modularization as well as developing, sourcing and manufacturing at lowcost sites;
assigning dedicated multifunctional teams that work largely independently of group structures;
ensuring targeted integration of suppliers that also meet the four
requirements stipulated above.
With its Dacia Logan, Renault provides a perfect example of the practical
implementation of this approach. Although built on the same platform as
the Renault 19, the remainder of the vehicle was newly developed with a
strict focus on cost optimization. Some components from current series
models were used. Others were based on completely new approaches to
ensure all requirements were met. This stringent design-to-cost
approach resulted in a much higher percentage of manual labour being
used in production than is the norm in modern car plants. As a consequence, chassis structures became less complex and had higher tolerances. Given that this was not at odds with customer requirements in this
market segment, the approach yielded substantial savings.
64
Major challenges
plants in China, Russia, India, the Czech Republic and Slovakia make a
substantial contribution to the growth of this automotive group. In Russia,
Hyundai is one of the fastest-growing manufacturers; in India the
company more than doubled its production volume from 2002 to 2004.
One-third of the Indian output (about 75,000 cars) is now being exported,
primarily to Africa, the United States and Latin America. Consequently,
India is not merely a production site for local demand; it is also being used
as a hub for other markets.
Under the catchphrase global sourcing, a lot of effort in recent years
has gone into taking advantage of supplier cost potential in emerging
markets. Initially, the focus was mostly on subsidiaries of established
suppliers. As suppliers increasingly consolidated and the automotive
industry grew in China and India, recent attempts have been directed
towards exploiting the cost savings potential of these new players in the
vendor market. A few of them Bharat Forge among them have been
highly successful in this.
As the number of available university graduates with a technical background declines and cost pressure in research and development increases,
emerging markets are beginning to play a more interesting role as locations for global R&D networks. Brazil has already evolved into a key
supplier of R&D services, for instance within the Volkswagen Group;
India is set to move centre stage for all established auto makers in the
years to come. The country will play an important role even for premium
OEMs such as DaimlerChrysler, which offshored their R&D activities to
Bangalore as early as 1997.
Safeguarding know-how
The more intrinsic networks with local R&D and production partners are,
the higher the risk of valuable know-how that has been developed over
many years being disclosed to third parties. Considering that many of the
new markets are engaged in a very long-term process of playing catch-up
and are very diverse, intensive knowledge transfer is often required to
develop production and development resources and new suppliers. On
the one hand, this transfer must be both planned and accepted to prevent
sometimes insurmountable hurdles from being erected in day-to-day
business operations. On the other hand, it has to be absolutely clear
whenever such transfers are made that there is a risk of critical know-how
being communicated to partners who still have to learn how to handle
and protect other peoples intellectual property. The lack of legal safeguards, and perhaps even the existence of protectionism, can sometimes
result in confidentiality and non-disclosure agreements becoming
65
virtually worthless. The aim must be to find the right level of know-how
transfer to develop the business without weakening the companys own
knowledge base.
66
Major challenges
67
it is safe to assume that some of the new players will already have closed
all of the key competency gaps within the next 10 years.
68
Major challenges
CONCLUSION
The globalization challenge is, is the automotive industry raising the
champions of tomorrow? The points made in this article show that the
answer to this question is multifaceted. In any event, the leading OEMs
and suppliers of today are indeed giving R&D assistance to new manufacturers from emerging markets. Some of these new manufacturers will
evolve into competitors to be reckoned with. On the supplier side, Bharat
Forge is already fit to play in the premier league.
Many of the new suppliers will, however, fall prey to continued
industry consolidation. Equally, OEMs from established core markets that
are currently considered leaders will become victims if they do not take
the necessary restructuring action in time, or if they fail to implement it
consistently enough. The current problems at Fiat, Ford and GM, as well
as at Delphi and other suppliers, underscore the dramatic negative consequences of holding on to old sinecures for far too long.
Ultimately, the progress of automotive globalization will make cars
more affordable and better for us the customers and drivers.
69
70
Major challenges
238
213
150
163
40
162
138
30
125
88
100
75
75
50
20
75
50
50
1 998
2000
2002
Standard models
75
75
76
1998
Europe
2000
2002
2004
North America
2006
2008
Japan
worse still. One fruit of this development is the less than satisfactory
earnings situation at numerous car companies, including Ford, General
Motors (GM), Fiat and DaimlerChrysler, not to mention many of their
component suppliers.
In our view, OEMs, component suppliers and development and
production service providers must therefore join forces to pull three key
levers that together can optimize the entire automotive value chain (see
Figure 4.2):
Lever II:
Physical service provision
Lever I:
Value chain breakdown
71
Lever III:
Business model
72
Major challenges
they scale back internal capacity. This leads to a situation where both
parties the OEM and the component supplier keep capacity available.
Consequently, at the latest by the time when they have to decide who does
what, the manufacturers often still tend to opt for in-house production to
avoid wasting internal capacity.
Conversely, OEMs have already transferred too much competence to
external suppliers in some areas, electronics being a good example. This
makes the former more heavily dependent on the latter than ever before,
especially with regard to the quality of the components and modules
supplied.
One subject of heated debate in the past few months has been why
German cars have become less reliable. The numbers are sobering.
According to a study by the ADAC (the German automobile association),
251,000 vehicle breakdowns were recorded in Germany in 2004, against
216,000 in 1999 (see Figure 4.3). Interestingly, the mileage clocked up
remained more or less constant in this period.
No. of vehicle breakdowns in Germany (000)
E/E share
[%]
52
231
56
242
59
21.5
21.8
251
22.0
144
127
94
125
135
2000
2002
148
2004
2000
2002
2004
The number of cases in which electronic problems are the cause of breakdowns has risen from 50 to nearly 60 per cent. However, this is not only
because of the generally greater importance of electronics in all kinds of
vehicle function, as can be seen from a direct comparison between
European makers and their Asian rivals, whose figures look substantially
better. According to the KBA, Germanys Federal Motor Vehicle Office,
the number of recalls also more than quadrupled between 1994 and 2004.
73
Over the past few years, numerous vehicle makers have farmed out all
aspects of the management of second- and third-tier suppliers to external
systems integrators. Ironically, they are now starting to complain about
losing direct contact with smaller component suppliers, a fact that is in
turn putting the brake on innovative dynamism.
It is therefore high time to address one crucial question. How will the
roles played by all parties to the development and production of automobiles evolve in future? A subset of this question is, what will happen to the
skill sets needed by each player?
Car makers must therefore ask themselves which skills they need to
keep in-house to what depth, and to what extent they want to rely even
more heavily on external partners in future. On the other side of the
equation, component suppliers and development/production service
providers must gain a clearer understanding of what business opportunities the future holds, and what skill sets will be needed to exploit them.
74
Major challenges
Yes
Influence on
brand image
Cockpit
Braking system
Windscreen wipers
Exhaust
system
Chassis/
drive electronics
Occupant safety
Communication/
entertainment
Lighting system
Steering
Gearbox
Seats
Wheels
Wheel suspension
Suspension
and dampers
Drive shafts
and axles
Engine
management
Engine
Front end
Back end
Hood/tailgate
No
Fenders
High
Doors
Low
Figure 4.4 Example of how an OEM might define its core competencies
Source: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Step 3: For any block that is not of core significance to the brand, the
last step is to calculate in detail whether outsourcing would yield cost
benefits. At this stage, it is critical to consider the following items:
higher transportation and handling charges; the external suppliers
anticipated profit margin; and, in particular, an estimate of those
overhead costs that will remain in-house in spite of outsourcing. In
practice, these are precisely the areas in which mistakes are often
made. One common error is to assume that overheads will be eliminated entirely if activities are outsourced. This generally causes the
actual financial benefits of outsourcing to fall short of defined targets.
Another mistake is to assume that overhead costs will remain static
75
Logistics
Payroll
0.2
0.5
SG&A
1.5
1.5
13.3
11.8
0.4
Factory
overheads
Supplier's margin
0.9
2.5
0.3
0.5
0.9
Materials
9.2
Make costs
8.8
Supplier's
price
Remaining overhead in
the event of outsourcing
Buy costs
76
Major challenges
In-house
project
Black box
outsourcing
Interior
Cockpit
Dashboard
Actual
Target
Air-conditioning
...
Seats
Door upholstery
Electronics
Engine
Coachwork Chassis
...
Suspension
Steering
Brakes
Coachwork
Windows
Doors, tailgate
Cylinder heads
Air/fuel
intake
Radiator
On-board electronics
Infotainment
Systems integration
Figure 4.6 Example of how an OEM might define its future skill sets
Source: Roland Berger Engineering Study
13.4
11.9
11.7
11.9
ROCE
11.1
9.5
8.2
ROA
7.1
7.1
7.3
6.7
6.8
EBIT
5.6
6.6
6.4
6.3
5.8
5.3
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
200 4
77
Sales
< EUR 0.4 billion
2 Product portfolio
Focused
Diversified
3 Customer portfolio
Focused
Diversified
4 R&D spending
Low
(<2% of sales)
Average
(24% of sales)
High
(>4% of sales)
5 Vertical integration
Low
Average
High
Successful suppliers
Sales of
EUR 0.4 4 billion
Sales
> EUR 4 billion
Major challenges
78
Average ROCE,
19972003
10.0
9.4
8.8
7.8
7.1
7.3
7.2
6.4
6.6
4.8
50
100
- 250
- 500
- 750
79
Integrated
door modules
Door systems
with frames
Door modules
Electronic
window lifters
Manual window
lifters
1928
1986
1987
2002
Back in 1928, Brose made the first manual window lifters ever. Electric
lifters came in 1963, followed by electronically controlled devices in
1986. A year later, the first door module, consisting of a window lifter,
window pane, window guide and impact protection unit, was fitted in an
Audi 80 Coup. Since then, things have moved fast. Today, a Brose door
module is made up of a wide range of add-on components, such as
speakers, locking systems, sealing elements and control elements for the
wing mirrors. To complement its window lifter and door module business,
the company gradually also moved into seat adjustment and locking
systems. The reward for this relentless and systematic accumulation of
competencies has been impressive indeed: Brose has averaged 13 per cent
annual growth for the past 50 years, expanding faster and more
sustainably than virtually any other automotive component supplier.
One key success factor at Brose has been a style of management
focused rigorously on the long term. Others have been optimal interplay
between mechanical, electrical and electronic components, an ability to
respond swiftly to changing market conditions and customer requirements, and a healthy mix of technology and cost leadership.
80
Major challenges
Electronics
Bertrandt
EDAG
Bertrandt
Ricardo
AVL List
Bertrandt
Component
design
EDAG
ESG
Simulation/
computation
Modelling Testing
/ prototyping
ETAS
Ricardo
Rcker
Interior
Bertrandt
EDAG
IVM
MSX
Coachwork Rcker
Chassis
Drive train
Engine
Complete
vehicle
Integration/
project
mgmt.
AVL List
ETAS
ESG
Ricardo
Production
planning
Plant
Compoconstruc- nent
tion
production
EDAG
EDAG
AVL List
IVM
MSX
Ricardo
AVL List
IVM
Ricardo
Rcker
Rcker
MSX
Ricardo
AVL List
Ricardo
Rcker
Ricardo
AVL List
Ricardo
Bertrandt
EDAG
IVM
MSX International
EDAG
EDAG
Ricardo
Dark clouds have however been looming on the horizon, at the latest since
the start of 2004. Demand for external engineering services has shifted into
reverse, for a number of reasons. One is that a number of OEM engineering
departments have moved over to a strict insourcing policy in order to
absorb excess in-house capacity. Demand is also being hit by car makers
redoubled attempts to keep competence that is critical to their brands inhouse. Furthermore, one of the principal drivers of the outsourcing trend
sharp growth in the variety of vehicle models is likely to peak in the next
year or two. At the same time, OEMs are now making first-tier suppliers
responsible for entire systems and modules, in the hope that they will also
handle and finance the necessary engineering work.
Despite all these negative effects, the market for engineering services is
still likely to present lucrative business opportunities in the medium to long
term. This market segment will receive positive stimulus from the fact that
in-vehicle technology especially in the field of electronics is contin-
81
82
Major challenges
Valmet
Karmann
Styling/
design
Bertone
Karmann
Pininfarina
Santana
Project
management
Bertone
Karmann
Magna St.
Pininfarina
Santana
Valmet
Heuliez
Karmann
Magna Steyr
Bertone
Santana
Pininfarina
Component
development
Total
vehicle
integration
Heuliez
Karmann
Magna St.
Pininfarina
Bertone
Heuliez
Karmann
Pininfarina
Magna Steyr
Santana
Valmet
Total
vehicle
testing
Production
planning
Production
engineering
Bertone
Karmann
Magna Steyr
Pininfarina
Santana
Valmet
Volume
production
plant
Karmann
Volume
model
assembly
Bertone
Heuliez
Karmann
Magna St.
Pininfarina
Santana
Valmet
in-house. New plants are springing up in the worlds growth markets, even
though existing capacity in the triad markets is not being rolled back.
Current global overcapacity enough for some 20 million vehicle units is
thus likely to remain acute until beyond 2010. Added to this is the fact that
OEMs themselves have in the meantime set up more flexible production
plants of their own. One direct consequence is that production service
providers saw an average of two to three percentage points shaved off their
profits between 2001 and 2003.
Here again, however, production service providers can continue to
operate in attractive areas in future. One opportunity is to assist OEMs as
they seek to penetrate new growth markets such as China, Russia, India
and Iran. The idea of having service providers that absorb peaks right
across the brand spectrum is also proving to be a viable option. In this
area, production service providers must nevertheless make their
production processes and plants more flexible than they are at present.
83
1 849 bn
1 750 bn
1670 bn
Production service providers
Engineering service providers
Share of total
value chain
[%]
CAGR
1
1
+1%
+1%
632
73
+4%
25
-1%
Component suppliers
428
518
OEMs
228
216
201
2004
2010
2015
84
Major challenges
Eastern Europe alone. The established triad markets are being left behind
(see Figure 4.14).
14,950
Others
BMW
PSA
DC
Ford
Hyundai
GM
4,480
VW
Toyota
DC
3,030
Ford
DC
Ford
GM
VW
2,430
Others
PSA
KIA
1,800
GM
Hyundai
China
1,290
1,180
Others
850
GM
DC
Ford
Brazil
USA
600
600
VW
VW
Although production jobs are the primary target, the writing is already
on the wall for development activities as well. Here too, new jobs will
be created only in Eastern Europe (+2,000), China (+4,500) and India
and the Pacific region (+4,000) in the next 10 years (see Figure 4.15).
In the coming years, car manufacturers will offshore the work of whole
development teams to countries with low labour costs. China is very
clearly the OEMs favourite destination, followed by Eastern Europe
and India. Simulation, machine tool construction, modelling and documentation are among the activities that will feel the impact most
keenly.
The same trend can be observed among automotive component
suppliers and engineering service providers. Not a week goes by without a
company announcing its intention to invest in Eastern Europe while
slashing capacity in Western Europe. Italy, the UK and Spain are leading
the way in axing local production capacity, whereas factories in France
and Germany are usually retained but downsized.
-500
North
America
32,200
Western
Europe
93,500
85
+2,000
Eastern
Europe
1,900
+4,500
+/-0
China
4,800
+/-0
Japan
43,600
India and the
Asia/Pacific
region
10,500
Central and
South America
3,200
-500
+4,000
Figure 4.15 OEMs existing and planned development resources (in fulltime equivalents)
Sources: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, interviews with auto makers, company
information
Major challenges
86
2009
2004
+ 0.6
Germany
Germany
2 5 .3
Czech Rep.
2 5 .9
Czech Rep.
5 .0
6 .7
Hungary
4 .2
Hungary
5 .7
Poland
4 .1
Poland
5 .2
Slovakia
2 .9
Slovakia
Latvia
2 .4
Latvia
3 .9
3 .2
Turkey
1 .8
Turkey
2 .6
Romania
1 .8
Romania
2 .5
Ukraine
Ukraine
0 .8
1 .3
+ 0.5
Other
100
-12%
38
+9%
35
-18
Logistics
Personnel
23
+4%
-79%
Materials
54
Running costs
at old location
(Germany)
54
Change in
personnel
expenses
Change in
logistics
costs1)
Change in
other
costs2)
0%
Running costs
at new location
(Romania)
To put that figure in context, only 69 per cent of these have relocated
value chain links to low-labour-cost countries in the past. Increasingly,
even highly complex technological components are being caught up in
this wave.
Often enough, component suppliers have no other choice. When one of
their OEM customers asks them to supply components direct to a low-cost
87
plant, the only question is, do the volumes and prices justify investing on
the ground in China or Russia?
On the other hand, a lot more preparation and careful consideration is
needed when deciding to set up a site from which countries with high
labour costs can import parts manufactured at low cost. Three key issues
must be covered when preparing and planning to relocate production to
countries with low labour costs:
2 Technological
complexity
filter
3 Number of
variants filter
4 Definition of
suitable
candidates
5 Definition
of relocation
scenarios
Implementation risk
Volume '09
Products
+
Product hierarchy
Scenario 3
Technological
complexity
Scenario 2
Scenario 1
-
Products rejected:
Product 1
Product 2
Etc.
+
No. of variants
Products rejected:
Product 3
Product 4
Etc.
Technologies
Definition of product/
technologies that
would be suitable for
relocation
Payback period
Scenario 3
Scenario 2
Scenario 1
88
Major challenges
Weighting
[%]
Duties/
taxes
Stability
Costs
Criteria
PL
CZ
3
2
5
2
2
5
3
2
5
1
1
2
4
5
5
5
4
5
7.5
10
12.5
5
5
100
Personnel
Current wage costs
Long-term wage trend
Availability
Logistics
Distance
Reliability
30
20
50
30
30
40
60
Economic and
financial stability
Political and legal
stability
Transparency
Corp. income taxes
Customs tariffs
Weighted score
Ranking
1Very disadvantageous
Candidates
SLO SK
LT
LV
EST BG
4
3
5
4
3
2
4
4
2
4
3
2
4
5
4
5
3
4
2
4
3
5
2
5
4
5
2
5
3.8
3.9
3.9
Non-EU countries
Others
RO
HR
SM
MK BIH
UA RUS TR
5
5
3
5
4
4
3
2
2
5
4
1
4
4
1
5
4
1
5
5
2
5
5
4
5
4
3
2
4
2
2
41)
3
4
4
3
2
2
2
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
31)
3
5
4
5
4
5
1
5
4
4
4
4
3
3
5
3
5
3
1
3
2
3
2
3
1
3
3.5
4.1
3.6
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.5
2.9
2.4
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.2
10
11
12
16
14
14
12
16
5 Very advantageous
Current personnel expenses at the target location, and above all anticipated wage increases in the years ahead, are naturally two of the most
significant factors. Generally speaking, reliable information can only be
89
km
50 100
Satu Mare
Bistrita
Oradea
Cluj
Tg. Mures
Arad
Corridor IX
Kiev (UA)
Moscow (RUS)
IX
Corridor IV
Prague (CZ)
Budapest (H)
Iasi
IV
Timisoara
IX
Sibiu
Pitesti Brasov
Ploiesti
Gaesti
IV
Galati
IV
Bucharest
Bucharest
Craiova
IV Corridor IV
Sofia (BG)
Industrial
systems
Injection
moulding
Plating
processes
Assembly of
white goods
Metalworking
90
Major challenges
91
Plants affected
Working week
Wages/welfare benefits
Employers' concessions
Bosch
Stuttgart, Sebnitz
35 36-hour week
Brose
Continental
Under negotiation
Continental Teves
Gifhorn
35 38-hour week
Increase to a 40-hour
week
35 40-hour week
Delphi
Wuppertal
EDAG
Fulda
Edscha
Remscheid
FAG Kugelfischer
Eltmann
INA
Leoni
Lahr
Two German
plants
All German
plants
40 44-hour week
for white-collar empl.
More flexible
working hours
Longer working
week
More flexible
overtime agreement
35 40-hour week
35 38-hour week
More flexible
working hours
Schuler
Year
Wrzburg
Siemens VDO
More flexible
working hours
2% of welfare benefits
waived
92
Major challenges
Criteria
1. Price pressure
+56
2. Quality demands
3. Willingness to recompense
cost savings
4. Chances of earning
an adequate ROI
5. Willingness to shoulder
development costs
-4
-46
-50
Today
Tomorrow
1. Innovation
2. Leadership
and communication
3. Access
4. Risk
Type of collaboration
1.
With crossshareholdings
3.
Japanese
keiretsus
2.
Without
cross-shareholdings
4.
Siemens VDO/
Magneti Marelli
Toyota and
its component
suppliers
Supplier/supplier
Supplier/OEM
93
5.
Toyota/PSA
(TPCA)
in Europe
6.
DaimlerChrysler,
GM and BMW
OEM/OEM
Partners involved
94
Major challenges
HBPO sites
Germany: Lippstadt and Meerane
Czech Republic: Mnichovo
CAGR +38%
Slovakia: Lozorno
700
Spain: Vitoria-Gasteiz
Korea: Jillyang, Seosan, Ulsan, Hwasung
Mexico: Puebla
USA: Troy/Detroit
352
70
1999
100
2000
140
2001
180
2002
210
2003
2004
2006e
95
direct competitors decided at the end of 2004 to work together. This move
came about in response to Boschs dominance in diesel injection systems
(see Figure 4.26).
Shares of the global market for diesel
injection systems (2004)
Magneti
Marelli
Delphi
10%
Siemens
VDO
3%
Object:
To jointly develop a new generation of diesel
injection systems for smaller and mid-sized
engines
24%
64%
Robert
Bosch
Aim:
For both partner companies to sharply
increase their market share
The two partners have made it their goal to jointly develop a new generation of diesel injection systems for smaller and mid-sized engines by
2007. Although they are direct competitors, collaboration yields benefits
for both companies:
96
Major challenges
9.1%
2.0%
0.1%
Toyota Motor
5.4%
29.5%
0.7%
22.2%
6.7%
Toyota Industries
Aisin Seiki
2.0%
41.1%
50.9%
Aisin AW
These companies often also get together to form joint ventures. Examples
include Advics (Sumitomo, Denso and Aisin Seiki), FTS (Toyoda Gosei
and Horie Metal) and Favess (Koyo Seiko, Toyoda Machine Works und
Denso). These companies are also helping Toyota build new plants
witness the assistance provided by Denso, Aisin Seiki and Aisan Industries
in relation to the new Toyota/PSA plant in the Czech city of Koln.
97
Apart from interlocking capital structures, two other key factors shape
the keiretsus:
Up to 1985
1985 1995
C
Global M&As
B
OEM A
Nissan
Mazda MMC
MMC
Toyota Honda
Consolidation
Tier 1
Since 1995
Nissan
Separation
Toyota
Mazda
System
integrators
Technology
satellites
Tier 2
Process
satellites
Tier 3
Process
satellites
Basic
structure
A keiretsu pyramid
structure
Drivers
Growing market
Quality improvements
through collaboration in
the keiretsu
Stagnating market
Fierce competition for market
share
Cost reductions due to open
sourcing
Major challenges
98
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
Toyota
RenaultNissan
BMW
DCX
VW
GM
PSA
Ford
Figure 4.29 Extent to which component suppliers are satisfied with their
OEM customers, 2004
Sources: Supplierbusiness.com
99
100
Major challenges
101
the GMC Yukon and the Dodge Durango (on the North American
market) as early as 2007.
Clear role-splitting: all parties are contributing their current state-ofthe-art research to the hybrid development project. The goal is the
mutual development of a modular total system. DaimlerChrysler will
lead the development of rear-wheel-drive hybrid systems for saloons,
while GM spearheads development for front-wheel-drive, four-wheeldrive and off-road vehicles. Each company is then independently
responsible for integrating the hybrid system in its own model range.
Clear contractual agreements: the relevant contracts set forth clear
rules governing the expertise contributed, such as Mercedes-Benzs
and Chryslers 10 years of experience, and the knowledge and prototypes contributed by GM.
102
Major challenges
103
INTRODUCTION
Automotive companies in the established triad markets are confronted by
a tricky market situation. Sales have been stagnating for years. Legal
conditions and constraints have tightened, and customers are constantly
becoming both more demanding and more varied in their individual preferences. The industry has responded to this growing demand for diversity
by creating a wide array of new models and vehicle segments. The
resulting information overkill and the erosion of customer loyalty that
goes with it have made it all the more crucial for car makers to clearly
differentiate themselves from their rivals, and to position their brands
astutely in respect of their targeted customer segments. While attractive
prices tend to be the main selling point for volume manufacturers, a
pitched battle for technology leadership and exclusive claims has broken
out among premium brands. In an attempt to differentiate themselves
against the competition, car makers have used advances in sophisticated
electronics in particular to repeatedly roll back the limits of what is technologically feasible. In consequence, high-tech content in premium
vehicles has experienced a quantum leap as manufacturers strive relentlessly for unique selling propositions.
Numerous manufacturers have nevertheless discovered that stuffing
vehicles full of technical innovations does not guarantee their market
success. Wherever customers have been unable to intuitively perceive
104
Major challenges
the real value added by the new technology, or when it did not line up
with customers brand expectations, sales have consistently fallen short
of projections. Some manufacturers have also learnt the hard way that
customers will only accept mature technologies. If technological innovations are not really mature, they can do serious damage to a brands
image.
Premium car makers thus find themselves faced with a dilemma. On
the one hand, every new product launch compels them to come out with
innovative new technologies as evidence of their premium position,
and to position their brand successfully and differentiate it from the
competition. This situation is exacerbated by the fact that new technologies nowadays spread ever faster what ranks as premium today
can very quickly filter down to lower classes of cars and/or be adopted
by the competition. On the other hand, the need to master alternative
competing technologies is driving costs and complexity to a level that
will not be sustainable in the future.
To escape from the complexity and cost trap, car makers must restrict
themselves to key technologies. They must abandon the traditional
technology creates demand approach that is obsessed with realizing
whatever is technically feasible. They must instead turn to a technology generates value approach that makes customers the focus of all
technological development. Leading manufacturers have understood
the opportunities that rigorous adherence to this approach affords in
terms of brand positioning, a keener brand profile and differentiation
relative to competitors. Successes and failures in applying this strategy
in some cases at one and the same company nevertheless highlight
the very fine line that separates dream from disaster. The challenge is,
therefore, to get customer orientation to permeate the entire organization, systematically and completely. In the future, the key success
factor for premium auto makers will be what we call customeroriented technology management.
105
106
Major challenges
18,151
1993
20,247
20,656
18,921
19,002
18,780
1995
1997
1999
Nominal price
19, 763
2002
107
108
Major challenges
246%
CAGR 9.4%
Model offensives
Shorter lifecycles
Greater use of new technologies
Stricter legal requirements (emissions
norms, safety regulations, consumption
regulations)
100%
1993
2000
2001
2002
2003
109
110
Major challenges
image inherited from DKW, its predecessor brand, and establish itself as
one of the leading premium manufacturers. When Audi introduced the
Quattro, the company rigorously translated its classic advertising slogan
Vorsprung durch Technik into a broad spectrum of innovations (such as
the Torsen differential gear) that all customers could experience for themselves. The legendary Quattro S1 rally car set new standards in the world
of motor sports and towered over its rivals for a long time. What more
vivid way to demonstrate the superior performance of this technical innovation in terms of driving dynamics and driving safety to customers! At
the same time, this positioning injected the necessary dose of emotion.
Ultimately, it was customers acceptance of the technological design that
made the change of image a success. This feat was achieved by enabling
customers to feel the difference (that is, the generated value) in what, for
them, were two vital areas of technology: driving dynamics and safety.
Crucially, the value that was generated aligned perfectly with the Audi
brands catchphrase, and therefore helped distinguish it very clearly from
its competitors.
111
what was in fact a genuinely innovative car elicited less than enthusiastic
coverage in Autobild, a popular and influential German automotive publication: [VWs] love for details is waning; in terms of its look and feel,
its a step back, not a step forward; and development on the Golf V is
invisible to the eye (an allusion to the chassis and steering).
When it introduced the iDrive concept, BMW too discovered that
customers will only accept innovation if they believe it caters appropriately to their needs. Acclaimed by its maker as a trail-blazing innovation
when the new 7 Series was rolled out in 2001, iDrive did not capture the
hearts of drivers, who found it too complicated. BMWs basic idea had
been to tidy up the cockpit while offering more functions and creating
clear hierarchic structures in vehicle control. All secondary functions
(such as infotainment, navigation, telematics services and audio/video
offerings) were to be combined as a central functional block. BMW and its
cooperation partners managed to design a knob that drivers could press or
turn eight ways to control over 500 different functions. The technology
was breathtaking, but the first iDrive system was extremely complex and
proved too much for the companys 7 Series customers. Even younger
people with a liking for technology took unusually long to learn to use the
system and they are not normally the target group for top-of-the-range
saloons (which mostly consists of males aged 45 to 67). The niceties of the
clever new system were often hopelessly lost on this latter group, whose
affinity for information technology (IT) is known to decrease with age
(Figure 5.3).
Regular use
of a PC
40%
20%
0%
20
30
Base: German population
40
50
60
70
80
Age
(years)
112
Major challenges
3.3
2.6
3
2
Poor 1
A8
Phaeton
5 Series
7 Series
Good navigation,
command unit well
positioned
Good navigation,
command unit well
positioned
No numeric keys
iDrive functionality
unclear, telephone
operated via iDrive
iDrive functionality
unclear, telephone
operated via iDrive,
too many functions,
difficult navigation
113
The above examples show how tremendously important it is to focus technological development on what customers really want and need. If technology fails to anticipate customers expectations, or if customers fail to
perceive the value that an innovation generates, sales forecasts will be
missed. Knowing the needs of the target customer segments is therefore
becoming ever more crucial as a success factor in the development of new
technologies.
114
Major challenges
Time (years)
Sales (units)
Hardware cycle
Software cycle
Time (years)
115
the high quality and reliability of its vehicles, Toyota remains the
industrys yardstick for customer satisfaction a reflection of customers
decreasing willingness to tolerate quality problems. The distance between
leading brands is eroding all the time. If innovations are found to be
immature at market launch, established market positions can shift dramatically at short notice.
844
826
811
808
799
792
786
Average
across all
brands
T o y o ta
M az d a
Hon da
B MW
Au d i
M er ced es B en z
116
Major challenges
Chassis
Powertrain
Engine
Body
Exterior
Interior
Aluminum/
magnesium
Smart airbags
Electronics
2002
Hybrid engine
Ceramic
brakes
2005
Magnesium
gearbox
housing
Particle filter
Electromechanical
brakes
Active lighting
Pedestrian
protection
system
Radar-guided
cruise control
system
Variable
transmission
Night vision
Variable
interiors
42V vehicle
power system
Pre-crash
sensors
Plastic
body
Fuel cell
engine
Steer-bywire
2015
Steel space
frame
Composite
materials
Active
chassis
2010
Bus systems
Wheel hub
drive
Hydrogen
engine
Driving on
autopilot
117
reduced vehicles need for power. It is therefore not unlikely that the 42V
power system will be put on ice for the time being or will perhaps even
disappear from view altogether.
On a brighter note, development of other technologies whose benefits
customers clearly understand has been accelerated. The outcomes are
reaching the market earlier than expected. One example is the radarguided cruise control system. Originally expected after 2007, this technology is already available in top-end vehicles, and is even gradually
appearing in mid-range saloons, too.
118
Major challenges
Since many technologies also compete with each other, OEMs find
themselves confronted by almost overwhelming complexities and
spiralling costs. To steer safely around the complexity and cost trap, they
will in the future have to focus more narrowly on key technologies. In
coming to this realization, manufacturers are learning that the technology
creates demand approach of the past will not get the job done. They have
understood that, to master the challenges of the future, they need an
approach that focuses technology development rigorously on the needs of
the target customers. Only then can they reduce internal complexities
while generating higher revenues by adding greater value for the
customer.
Customers are indeed willing to pay for perceptible add-on benefits.
Whereas buyers in Germany paid an average of around 9,500 for a new
car in 1983, this figure jumped to 15,200 by 2003. The purchase of
special extras accounts for some two-thirds of the difference (Figure 5.8).
3,700
15,200
65%
2,000
9,500
35%
Rise in price of
standard model
1983
Share of
price rise
accounted for
by special
extras
2003
Figure 5.8 Trend in the average price of a new car in Germany (in
euros, adjusted for inflation)
Sources: DAT Report, Roland Berger
Many car makers are now visibly shifting to a new approach. The technology generates value approach assesses innovations in terms of several
factors: the value they generate for customers, their degree of maturity and
their compatibility with a brand profile, the fit with the product positioning and with current trends in the different technology segments. The
task now facing decision makers in the industry is to investigate the
myriad potential new technologies ahead of them and identify those technologies and technology segments that target customers will accept and
pay for.
119
120
Major challenges
121
the developers have struck the right chord: In the new S class, drivers
today have a firm grip on the technology of tomorrow.
Renaults example is especially impressive. It illustrates the vast
potential even for volume manufacturers to sharply boost their brand
image and carve out a more distinctive profile, provided they correctly
anticipate what customers expect of new technologies. Although Renault
has not been regarded as a technology leader in the past, top grades in the
Euro-NCAP crash test gave a sudden and significant lift to the companys
brand image. This example, too, clearly underscores the success factors
for technology development in the automotive market:
122
Major challenges
a number of the crash test criteria. The safety concept was not applied
consistently enough, though. Nor was it adapted early enough to meet
the specific criteria valid for Euro-NCAP tests. Below-par test results
were therefore inevitable. Strong brand positioning and a substantial
premium bonus will now be needed to plug the hole that has been torn
in customer opinion.
Strictly manage technology development. Renault not exactly a
byword for innovation leadership in the past has consistently channelled the bulk of its sizeable development spend into the safety technology segment. The company has consciously refrained from
spreading itself too thinly by also concentrating on other advanced
technologies. Interestingly, although safety had always been an
important issue to both customers and manufacturers, not all car
makers grasped the significance of the Euro-NCAP crash tests to the
same extent in the mid- to late 1990s. At the time, Euro-NCAP was
itself striving to be accepted by the automotive industry. The permanently increasing importance of safety themes in customers value
systems thus generated a classic winwin situation for both parties. In
the end, Euro-NCAP attained a leading position as an independent
testing organization for passive safety, while Renaults lead role in
passive safety gave a lasting boost to the car makers brand image
(Figure 5.9).
1996
Highest crash
safety score
1997
1998
1999
2000
Renault
2001
2002
Laguna
VW/Audi
Mercedes
C class
Megane
Espace
Megane
Espace
Clio
Scenic
Audi/VW
Golf
Lupo
Beetle
Polo
Passat
A4
Mercedes
E class
A class
C class
BMW
5 Series
Lowest crash
safety score
Renault
Golf
Touareg
3 Series
A3
TT
SLK
M class
Vaneo
Mini
Passat
A3
Clio
Laguna
A6
Sharan
Smart
VW/Audi
A4
Mercedes
C class
BMW
3 Series
Smart
Passat
A class
1 Series
5 Series
Z4
Twingo
Polo
2005
Kangoo
Polo
A2
Renault
Mercedes
Touran
A6
X5
Renault
VW/Audi
2004
Modus
MeganeCC
E class
BMW
2003
Megane
Laguna
Vel Satis
Espace
3 Series
123
Yet another manufacturer that has understood the power of customerfocused technology strategies is likely to give sleepless nights to the
incumbent technology leaders in the future. Toyota, already the frontrunner in terms of growth, quality and profitability, will now also gain
recognition as a technology leader. Toyota is therefore leveraging the
hybrid engine technology to take the lead in the environment technology
segment. This core area is of crucial importance to customers. Zooming in
on hybrid engines as an area of core competence, Toyota is seeking to
cultivate an emotional image for the Lexus brand in particular.
Public discussion of climate change, record oil prices and particulate
emissions are just some of the issues that have sensitized consumers to
ecological matters, leading to calls for more environment-friendly cars.
Unlike Japans pioneers of hybrid technology, European manufacturers
have elected to rely on diesel engines. Any other research they do concentrates on fuel cell and hydrogen technologies, neither of which will be
ready for volume production before 2015 to 2020. To date, manufacturers
and experts have led a highly technical and often polemic debate about the
individual strengths and weaknesses of diesel, hybrid, natural gas and
other comparatively green engine technologies. Customers have
perceived the heated debate as disconcerting it has not exactly reinforced their desire for environment-friendly technologies. In the United
States, tighter emissions legislation and public subsidies have fostered a
trend toward hybrid vehicles that European makers quite simply overlooked for far too long. More than 80,000 hybrid autos were sold in the
United States in 2004, over 50,000 of which were Prius models from
Toyota. Market researchers expect the global market volume to rocket to
over 900,000 hybrid vehicles by 2010 (Figure 5.10).
For the longest time, the automotive industrys corporate HQs in
Europe and the United States insisted that two engines would be too
expensive and too heavy. That made them hesitate to join the fray and
actively address the hybrid issue. Meanwhile, Toyota had swiftly recognized what customers wanted and pressed ahead with the development of
hybrid technology. It has since gained a several-year lead over the
incumbent technology leaders. When the hybrid engine was first introduced in the Prius in 2000, the vehicle was derided for its stuffy design
and poor driving dynamics. However, by the time the Lexus RX400h was
unveiled, if not before, this attitude had changed completely. Runs
smoothly, is great fun to drive and even appeases your environmental
conscience, is how Autobild summed up its test drive experience encapsulating to perfection what customers expect of hybrid vehicles.
Ever since Hollywood stars such as Cameron Diaz and Harrison Ford
rolled up to the Oscar awards ceremony in a hybrid Prius, and ever since a
Major challenges
124
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.7
0.4
1.2
1.4
1.3
2.7
941
836
451
449
233
178
31
68
0.9
2000
Worldwide
70
1
2002
W. Europe
11
2004
2006
2008
2010
Figure 5.10 Market forecast for hybrid vehicles (in thousands of units)
Sources: Automobil-Produktion (publication), Freedonia Group, Global Insight
Honda Insight Hybrid effectively shared top billing with John Travolta and
Uma Thurman in their movie Be Cool, it is obvious who Toyota has identified as key customer opinion leaders. The Japanese car maker also
manifestly has a clear strategic focus on leadership in this technology
segment, and stringently manages its technology development programme.
Toyota has, in other words, seized this opportunity with both hands.
Just when Europes incumbent premium brands such as Mercedes were
indulging in a spot of navel-gazing regarding quality and product portfolio issues, Toyota launched an assault on the Old Continent with its
Lexus brand. Armed with a powerful arsenal a more attractive,
European-style design, new technology (with hybrid technology positioned as core competence for the Lexus brand) and top rankings on
quality and service the Lexus is gunning to narrow the gap on Europes
home-grown premium brands. Within the space of five years, all top-ofthe-range Lexus models are to be fitted with hybrid technology.
From bitter past experience with the Lexus brand in Europe, Toyota
knows full well that the climb to premium peaks will be a long and
arduous one. Its only chance is to beat the European premium car makers
in the arena of leading-edge technology. Accordingly, the group pumped
over 5.5 billion into new technologies in 2005. Hybrid technology is a
central tenet of Toyotas overall strategy, which aims for market leadership by 2010. And so far, the Japanese company has achieved every goal
it set itself. That is why the automotive world has to sit up and take notice.
Now that exciting, innovative cars are no longer necessarily made in
125
126
Major challenges
127
Technology/
product strategy
Customer
requirements
Key trends
Customer-oriented
technology
management
Operational
design
Network
management
128
Major challenges
This strategy also defines the precise technologies and innovations that
can and should be used to differentiate a brand and product from rival
brands and products. The target value chain structure is then mapped out
on this basis. The secret of successful transformation is to focus development rigorously on the value to the customer and to verify this value
orientation for every detail and on every level.
The operational design phase aims to systematically implant or embed
a customers-eye view of the car makers development organization
across every level, division and vehicle project. Traditional, functionoriented value chain structures must be reoriented to focus on the brandshaping vehicle attributes and customer needs. These structures must be
enabled to recognize and respond quickly to emerging trends. Change
must also come to the development process. In the past, the development
approval process was focused on individual components. Now, specifications of defined vehicle attributes must be added. Also, the development
organization must have the skills and resources it needs to rise to future
challenges and cope with the ever faster pace of innovation. Critical
knowledge must be available within the organization.
Network management will play a very prominent role in the future.
More and more links in the value chain will be outsourced to suppliers and
service providers. This will leave the manufacturers free to concentrate on
the brand-shaping elements of the value chain. But it is also a pragmatic
way for OEMs to maximize productivity and exploit cost advantages
despite their own limited resources and lack of expertise in innovative
technologies. In the future, however, this process will slow down
noticeably, and will not go as far as was expected until recently (Figure
5.12). The flood of new models has already passed its high-water mark.
With productivity gains now being eroded to some degree by higher coordination overheads, manufacturers face considerable overcapacity and
strive to build up critical knowledge resources in their own organizations.
Even so, the shift in the value chain between manufacturers and
suppliers will still be significant. New business models will result that
establish car makers and their external suppliers as strategic partners
within tightly meshed networks. For the car makers, the main success
factors will be choosing the right partners and managing the resultant
network effectively as a virtual company. The individual partners will
operate different business models, have different levels of vertical integration, possess different competences and be responsible for different
areas. Ensuring that such a network focuses consistently on one and the
same customer-oriented strategy is a highly complex task. Efficient
network management will be crucial to keep auto makers competitive
while constantly adapting to current and anticipated market changes.
CAGR: +2.5%
CAGR: +4.6%
66.7
48.3
56%
+4.8%
41%
28.3
129
Suppliers
(including
engineering
service providers)
+7.2%
30%
70%
1990
+3.1%
59%
+0.5%
2002
44%
OEMs
2015
130
Major challenges
Past/present
Future
Component-oriented
Attribute-oriented
Air-conditioning system
Four-cylinder engine
Environmental friendliness
ABS
Value retention
5-gear automatic
transmission
Differentiation
Driving dynamics/handling
Safety
Engine performance
Interior design
Infotainment
Focus vehicle/brand
attributes on the
customer
Identification of
vehicle attributes that
shape the brand
Focus new
technologies on added
value aimed at specific
target groups
New technologies
that generate value
for target customers
When new trends begin to impact the market, change comes about.
Established market players nevertheless often lack the systematic
sensors that would allow them to detect such shifts early on. That is why
many of them often respond very late. Manufacturers who are intent on
transforming their image generally adopt a much more aggressive stance.
As soon as a new blip on their radar screens signals a change in customer
131
requirements, they seize the opportunity and rigorously focus their technology strategy on this trend witness the examples of Euro-NCAP and
hybrid engines.
All car makers essentially face the same challenge: to wade through the
flood of short-lived trends and filter out those ones that will have a lasting
impact. This requires transparency and a systematic approach.
Transparency is needed in respect of macroeconomic trends that
suddenly begin to drive technology and so affect the activities of the
market. But manufacturers also need a clear overview of opinion leaders,
such as newly emerging technology institutes (like Euro-NCAP) and
market research institutes (like JD Power, whose analyses of customer
satisfaction are gaining more and more importance). Transparency is
equally essential with regard to the media, such as journals whose
regional influence is growing (Auto Motor Sport is a good example in
Europe), and concerning multipliers, such as the Oscar awards scenario
in the case of Toyotas hybrid vehicle.
A systematic approach is necessary to wean firms off the kind of ad hoc,
gut feeling models that have been prevalent in the past. Car makers must
instead learn to regularly track familiar and new drivers and trends. In
many cases, organizational deficiencies are one of the reasons that information that could have a critical influence on key decisions never makes it
from Marketing to Development or that the latter often rejects any such
input. Again, the reason for these deficiencies is mostly that customer
orientation has not been implanted in technology management at a
strategic and organizational level, or that customer orientation has not yet
become the sole focus of the development process across all levels and all
relevant divisions. The fact that one and the same manufacturer can
deliver both glowing successes and abject failures of technology
management substantiates this hypothesis: the ability to realize a
customer-oriented technology management strategy is obviously there. It
just isnt everywhere yet.
132
Major challenges
Comfort,
ease of use
Driving
dynamics
Infotainment
Value
orientation
Interior
Engine
perf.
Design
Safety
Environmental
friendliness Value
retention
Rational
Low
Importance for brand differentiation
(minimum standard
for premium vehicles)
High
The next step is to transform brand values into sets of vehicle attributes.
The attributes themselves must be such that they can be experienced by the
customers, generate value for them and clearly differentiate the vehicle
from other vehicles. Once all vehicle attributes have been defined, it is time
to decide which technologies and innovations are best suited to realizing
them. The technologies selected must be clearly assigned to the corresponding vehicle systems. Based on these defined guidelines and their
intended mode of functioning, the final step is to translate the requirements
placed on these systems into the language of development: that is, into
technical specifications. This is the crux of the whole process: the
conversion of customers wishes into technical specifications. After all, not
every abstract customer perception can be mapped one-to-one onto a
detailed technical description and measured in terms of physical units.
A concrete example helps illustrate this four-step process (Figure 5.16).
The figure shows how a premium manufacturer converts the brand value
of sportiness into a vehicle attribute that drivers can experience, namely
excellent handling through superior traction in all weathers. Translated
into the language of development, this attribute is realized in part through
optimal load distribution and superb grip. The innovative technology
133
Brand values
Sportiness
Vehicle attributes
reflected in
achieved by
Technologies
integrated in
Systems
Excellent handling
in all weathers
Electrohydraulic
suspension control
Suspension/damping systems
134
Major challenges
Create/conceive innovation
135
Select innovations
Innovation pool
-
Slow follower
Innovator
Technology position
Sources:
Filter:
Slow follower
Innovator
Technology position
136
Major challenges
Brand
characteristics
Customer benefit
Differentiation
Interior
Chassis
Body
Engine
E/E
Attributes
Quality
Environm. friendliness
Safety
Projected impact of individual systems
on brand characteristics
Engine performance
Driving dynamics
Interior design
Ease of use
Impact on brand character.:
Strong
Avg.
Weak
Irrelevant
distinctive. Today, the brand-shaping attributes of products and technologies in the various systems and components are often generated by
electronics and software. Chassis control systems, powertrain and motor
management systems are just three examples, and the knowledge behind
these systems and components often lies with outside suppliers.
Moreover, since little progress has been made in standardizing hardware
and software platforms, such suppliers are far from interchangeable. This
situation highlights how important it is to brand image for manufacturers
and suppliers to collaborate closely in tightly woven networks.
137
Reduced-complexity
organization
Chassis
Chassis
Interior
Body
Vehicle
project
Interior
Body
Attribute
x1
Attribute
x2
Attribute
x3
Line responsibility
Vehicle
project
Attribute
x1
Attribute
x2
Transformed development
organization
Driving
Passive Comfort
dynamics safety
Vehicle
project
Attribute
x
Attribute
y
Project responsibility
138
Major challenges
Example 1
Chassis
139
Driving dynamics
Axles
Brakes
Handling
Suspension
Vibration
Original focus
Brand value-oriented
Example 2
Interior
Seats
Doors
Cockpit
Infotainment
Haptic/visual appeal
Vehicle
specification/design
Vehicle integration
Specification of
vehicle attributes
Systems integration
Module design
Module testing
Component design
Component testing
Module realization
Focus on components
140
Major challenges
141
142
Major challenges
Integration
partners
143
Cooperation
partners
Tier 1
OEM
Small
technology
firms
Tier 2
Tier 3
System
partners
Partners
in other
industries
144
Major challenges
Functional hierarchy
OEM
Network
OEM
OEM
PAST
PRESENT
SUMMARY
The technology challenge: does it constitute progress, or is it a pitfall? The
conditions and constraints surrounding technological development have
changed. Whereas innovation proceeded at a comparatively modest pace
until the early 1990s, technological advances especially in the field of
electronics have since triggered dramatic acceleration. This trend,
coupled with the fact that new technologies now spread ever more quickly
to other brands and lower classes of car, is making it hard for car manufacturers to differentiate themselves from their competitors. Even premium
brands are becoming more interchangeable. The pressure to innovate, the
competition that exists between alternative technologies and the crushing
burden of R&D expenditure are threatening to catch premium manufacturers in a cost and complexity trap.
The way to avoid this trap is to focus on those technologies that are
critical that is, those technologies that distinguish a manufacturer from
its competitors, sharpen its brand profile and, no less important, bring in
more revenues. Premium car makers must abandon their technology
145
146
147
148
Major challenges
53
Certain brand/
certain model
64
62
Certain
price ceiling
36
38
47
end of its traditional portfolio. The growing trend for vendors to set themselves apart by developing innovative niche vehicles is constantly
spawning new subsegments. Twenty years or so ago, model segments were
clearly defined. Recent years have seen an explosion in niche segments,
however. Cross-over models that combine elements of different segments
have been introduced and have shaken up inherited product categories.
Innovative roof models, for instance, have blended elements of the coup,
the convertible and the saloon car. Fresh models combine features of sports
utility vehicles (SUVs) and large saloon cars, adding the comfort of the
luxury segment and using sleek roof lines to give a sports car-like flair
reminiscent of a coup. Current concept cars even cross coups and
convertibles with SUVs.
Mercedes-Benz is an excellent case study illustrating the entire trend
toward the expansion of model ranges. Having produced just seven model
series in 1980, the company was rolling out 20 by the end of 2005 (see
Figure 6.2).
While spreading the range of models on offer, manufacturers have also
shortened vehicle lifecycles. Volkswagens first Golf had a rated lifecycle
of nine years. With the Golf IV, that figure diminished to six years.
On the cost side, moves to optimize development, sourcing and production
processes have yielded substantial gains in efficiency. Extensive standardization based on a common platform, and identical parts strategies, have
enabled firms to tap vast potential all along the value chain (see Figure 6.3).
14
20
To 1981: SLC
19821993: 190
19911997: E class convertible
19962003: V class
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
149
2005
Close collaboration between auto makers and their suppliers, with both
sides acting as partners, has delivered huge successes in this area. The
early involvement of component suppliers in the product development
process and the spread of networking thanks to open CAx data models can
Monetary effects
R&D
Purchasing
Production
150
Major challenges
save both time and money. Platform strategies and the outsourcing of the
development and production of entire systems to first-tier suppliers enable
economies of scale to be realized across corporate brands and even across
multiple manufacturers. In a similar strategy, heavily integrated
production processes (where suppliers deliver parts just in time or just in
sequence) reduce complexity and speed up assembly on the line.
Volume
segment
Value
segment
11
15
17
79
72
68
11
13
15
1990
2002
2010
151
In the automotive industry, the battle for the growing premium segment is
intensifying. For some considerable time, manufacturers have been
conceding sizeable discounts on premium models in order to gain or
defend market share. In the German market, for example, price reductions
of 10 per cent, 15 per cent and more are commonplace in this segment.
At the bottom end of the price range, low-cost offerings are facing
even more intense competition. One pioneer in focusing on cost efficiency and minimal features and fittings has been Renault/Nissan, the
company that developed the Dacia Logan. Volkswagens announcement
that it intends to pursue a similar market strategy clearly shows that
other players cannot escape from this pressure. Volkswagen is looking to
the 3-K, whose production costs should come to about 3,000, to
improve its competitive position in emerging markets in particular.
Further low-cost Asian vehicles will also penetrate the market. The
Koreans and Chinese are expanding aggressively. Indian makers also
are working on vehicle strategies that would take production costs down
below 2,000.
152
Major challenges
153
37
30
18
20
17
11
10
2
0
<-2
-2 to
-1
-1 to
0
0 to
+1
1 to
2
2 to
3
>3
Profits
[earnings before
tax, in %]
154
Major challenges
155
appeal was critical to its market success. Accordingly, both brand and
product had to be positioned very precisely.
Products need to address
emotional aspects
emotional
E-
Fair
Nature
Purism
E+
Passion
Thrill&Fun
Vitality
Classic
Carefree
Tranquil
Calming New&Cool
Less consumption
More consumption
Service
Less is more
Smart
Shopping
Total Cost
R-
Quality
24/7
Protech
Personal
Efficiency
Proven
R
Customized
R+
Rational
Customer segmentation/
brand positioning based
on value clusters
156
Major challenges
3 Assessment of whether
value propositions are
consistent with personal
values up to the point of sale
Expectations
Preferences
Behaviour
Personal
value system
Brand
positioning
Name, symbol
Marketing mix
Brand users
4 Purchase decision
157
tures of todays sales systems still prevent market players from truly
understanding their customers, identifying them systematically,
winning their custom and retaining it in the long term. These limitations
must be recognized and overcome.
158
Major challenges
Although many auto makers have integrated the wholesale level in the
larger markets, the traditional principle of one country, one company
remains generally valid. Hub models, in which geographically and socioculturally related countries merge to form a single organization, are still
few and far between in the car industry. Many smaller markets are still
served by importers, who tend to use either the same elaborate processes
and systems as are operated in larger markets, or very rudimentary solutions. Cost disadvantages result, and managing these systems is difficult
because of substandard support functions. Cross-border synergies and
opportunities to run a more professional operation are often squandered.
Like the manufacturers level and the wholesale level, the dealers level
too still exhibits structural deficits. Especially in Europe, countless efforts
to restructure networks have left the market as fragmented as ever, as is
shown by a comparison with the United States (see Figure 6.8). Failure to
reach critical mass thus prevents companies from pursuing professional
marketing strategies and reaping economies of scale.
1 3 .7
No. of dealers
per 1,000 km2
2 .3
1 1 .7
7 .5
No. of dealers per
100,000 inhabitants
760
371
New car sales
per dealer
Western
Europe
USA
159
160
Major challenges
161
Dealer power
The process of concentration among dealerships raises the question
whether car dealers are poised to gain more power and follow a similar
path to the one already travelled by, for example, the consumer goods
industry. Concentration in the German food retail industry, for example,
has been extreme in recent decades. The five largest food chains have
increased their share of total sales nearly threefold, to almost 70 per cent,
over the past 25 years. By comparison, concentration in the automotive
retail industry is very much weaker, in all European markets. While the
UKs top five car dealer groups can at least boast a 14 per cent market
share, the corresponding figure is 6 per cent in France and 4 per cent in
Spain. In Germany, the five largest dealer chains account for a mere 3 per
cent of the total new vehicle market.
Concentration will nevertheless continue in this industry. Indeed, it is
likely to accelerate to enable companies to realize economies of scale. At
present, the car-selling industry is consolidating in two directions:
towards internationalization and towards multi-brand sales.
Large dealer groups are enlarging their footprint by acquiring
companies at home and abroad. Some, like the Weller Group in Germany,
162
Major challenges
163
164
Major challenges
1,280
2002
1,620
1,5001,700
2004
2010
1,360
2003
Figure 6.9 Trend in the number of car makers own outlets, 200210 in
Western Europe (number of sites)
Sources: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, HWB
Auto companies are trying to use CRM activities (building call centres,
for example, and establishing customer clubs and cards) to strengthen
their direct contact with end customers. They are pursuing exactly the
165
166
Major challenges
167
168
Major challenges
169
170
Major challenges
Outlook
So who will gain control in this new constellation of partnerships and
networks? When competitive conflict gives way to constructive collaboration, control is no longer the focal issue. The result is a winwin situation. Like the process that the component supply industry has already
experienced, it will take at least a decade before new business models take
shape that adequately accommodate new requirements and share out
benefits and burdens in an equitable manner. As the spider at the centre of
the web, manufacturers have the chance to actively guide processes on the
sales side too. However, if they fail to take action in the areas we have
discussed, powerful dealer groups will take matters into their own hands
and rewrite the rules of the game. In sales, as in other disciplines, size and
market power merely create potential. Lasting success demands entrepreneurial creativity and fast execution, by either the car maker or the dealer.
171
In the automotive industry, the car is not the only automotive activity
that generates revenues. Various activities related to the vehicle along its
lifecycle, such as vehicle financing, maintenance and repair, used car
buy-back and reselling activities, wholesale spare parts, as well as
services, provide quite substantial revenues.
These activities do in fact generate higher profits than manufacturing
vehicles. It is no secret that vehicle manufacturers, or original
equipment manufacturers (OEMs), make almost 50 per cent of their
profits from the spare parts business. A study, which could perhaps
sound too simplistic, estimated the price of a car built from spare parts
at roughly four times its new price. These additional sources of profit
are of utmost importance for OEMs because they are linked to the pool
of cars in use and not to new car sales, which are always subject to
cycles or dependent on the success of new models. The cars in use
provide greater financial stability, which is especially appreciated by
the financial community and rating agencies. In a similar fashion,
financial services are also highly profitable, driven more and more by
the used car business and less by the sale of new cars.
Major challenges
172
40
30
10
28 Maintenance/spare parts
1
16
13 Insurance/financing
-5
3
Others
1 Operation
12
16
-5 Used cars
-6
-4
1) Including importers/distributors
2)
Suppliers
2) Including subsidiaries
Figure 7.1 Return on capital employed per vehicle in Europe (per cent)
Source: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
173
the market are pursuing strategies aiming at involves moving closer to the
final customers and strengthening ties with them.
For decades, this business model has operated in the European automotive market. As a result, the playing field has progressively reached a
sort of equilibrium, with entrenched beliefs such as:
Original parts are found in the OES channel, non-original parts in the
independent aftermarket (IAM) channel.
Parts prices are set up by OEMs and are the indisputable reference in
the market.
Recent vehicles are repaired in the OES channel, old vehicles in the
IAM channel.
Used cars are cars with more than 30,000 kilometres on the clock.
Dealers are 100 per cent dependent on OEMs.
When compared with other consumer goods sectors such as luxury goods
and food, it becomes apparent how unique this situation is to the automotive market. Automotive sales and after-sales activities have historically
been organized and managed using an offer-push approach rather than
customer-pull, because the customers primary need is not driven by an
emotional demand but rather by a necessity, namely to repair, maintain or
get rid of a used car. In addition, the automotive product is unquestionably
the most complex object sold in a mass production system.
Product technology and diversity: the increase in advanced technology, for example electronics, electromechanical systems and
systems integration, together with the large diversity of models and
brands, creates far greater complexity when it comes to managing
after-sales activities.
174
Major challenges
Car market evolution: the growing and ageing pool of cars that has
emerged because of longer car lifecycles, third family cars and high
adoption rates is changing the picture. For instance, the number of cars
over 10 years old in Germany is growing at 3 per cent annually, and the
number of seven to nine-year-old cars is growing at an annual 4 per
cent in France and 10 per cent in Spain.
Evolution of customer needs: customers expectations regarding
service quality, reliability and relationships are growing, largely
encouraged by the experiences customers have gained with other
services (banks, consumer goods and so on).
Changes in consumer behaviour: the increase in professional vehicles
(for example company cars and long-term rental), combined with the
much wider and professional used car offer, is changing consumer
behaviour.
Regulatory changes: the BER is altering the automotive landscape
especially for spare parts, but so too is Eurodesign, which threatens
design-proprietary parts.
Specialized prescriber groups: the growing influence of insurance
companies and associations such as Thatcham, and rating institutes
like Euro NCAP and JD Power, also affects the market.
Europeanization: the creation of the EU-25 raises questions about how
to address the additional countries with the leanest distribution costs,
how to avoid grey markets, and so on.
Channel consolidation: large dealer groups (especially in the UK and
France) are garnering a huge market share; consolidated IAM wholesalers, large affiliated and networked repairers and large fleet
management companies now command clout.
New entrants: retail store chains have been viewed as potential new
entrants, but entry barriers are too high. The real new entrants are
banks and financial institutions, leasing and fleet management
companies. These players are keen to acquire a share of this attractive
market.
In this chapter, the OES channel stands for the brand distribution channels
of OEMs. This includes for instance OEMs affiliates, dealers and agents.
The IAM channel stands for the independent after-market, which includes
wholesalers, fast-fitters, repairers and body-shop networks.
175
Major challenges
176
CAGR
+2.7%
65
57
60
48
48
36
30
Germany
= 2001
UK
CAGR
+3.2%
France
= 2007 estimate
19.3
36
40
16.0 16.5
14.4 14.8 15.1 15.4
Spain
30
Italy
2007e
177
9.0
14.2
2
3.5
6.5
26.5
Dealers and agents (40.8)
31.5
2.9
6.4
Parallel imports (3.8)
Private individuals (58.5)
Demo
cars
(14.9)
STD (11)
LTD (6.4)
Companies &
organizations
(9.1)
This means that the share of professional customers among car buyers is
expanding, creating a new type of intermediary between end users and car
makers. The bargaining power of these intermediaries is intensifying.
Professional customers are using their new-found clout to negotiate additional specifications and lower prices.
178
Major challenges
65
20
Private dealers
(<5 vehicles)
50
30
LTD annual
growth =
8-10%
7
LTD penetration: 20
x% Penetration rate of LTD within each fleet segment in percent
Figure 7.4 Penetration of LTD within each fleet segment (per cent)
Source: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
179
180
Major challenges
deals. STD fleets are given incentives such as margins of 1 to 2 per cent to
purchase vehicles for a period of six months, after which the vehicle is
bought back by the OEM and resold as a used car.
A common practice among dealers and car makers is to purchase vehicles
for showroom purposes and internal use, before reselling the vehicles with
very limited mileage to customers. This is also pushing up the number of
sales in the recent used car segment. These vehicles accounted for 11 per
cent of new car registrations in Europe in 1999, and 15 per cent in 2003.
This practice is especially prevalent in Germany, where zero mileage
vehicles have at times accounted for 25 to 30 per cent of new car registrations. This is facilitated by specific regulations that allow vehicles to be
registered for an interim period of time, such as six months.
These flow regulation levers have been used widely by many OEMs to
boost their market share, which is measured by the number of car registrations. OEMs also use this mechanism to regulate the structural problem
endemic in the European market, namely the overcapacity of new cars.
181
CAGR
+2.1%1)
4,896
5,782
Others
-0.2%1)
Brokers/dealers
Subsidiaries
+8.5%1)
13
+8.3%1)
Licensed dealers/agents
25
+4.5%1)
30
Private sellers
56
-0.9%1)
44
1999
2007e
Figure 7.5 Breakdown of used car sales by distribution channel (per cent)
Sources: Observatoire de lAutomobile, CCFA, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
competition for real recent used cars, which are also discounted by 20 to
25 per cent on new cars but have a mileage of 15,000 to 30,000 kilometres. This pulls down prices along the lifecycle and lowers the buyback value. Since buy-back values are negotiated up-front by OEMs when
selling to fleet management companies (that is, at the beginning of the
period), this price reduction creates a depreciation trap for OEMs.
Several OEMs have been hamstrung by this vicious circle. To avoid
falling into this trap, OEMs have to secure and control this activity better
than before. OEMs especially have to control the way used cars flow into
the market. They must leverage their Europe-wide network against
regional and local distributors to create scale effect and synergies in the
management of used car flows across Europe. A two-pronged approach is
required: they should provide better service to customers while taking into
account the used car price gap that exists across countries for instance, a
used Clio has a higher market price in Germany than in France. Renault,
for instance, has managed to implement a European used car database to
quickly check used car availability across different European countries.
Players active in the used car segment are capturing value. New cars are
losing out as a result. The value captured by used cars is shared among
182
Major challenges
Repair and service: technology threat for the pool of sixto-nine-year-old cars
Customers demand greater reliability and better satisfaction
Customers have grown accustomed to increasing service quality, from
booking flights to purchasing goods at a retail store, calling a telecoms
operator or buying a service from a bank. Service quality can be expressed
in manifold ways, including immediate availability, rapid response to
requests, limited waiting time, special allowance for delays, high
customer attention and fidelity tools. It has become a weapon in the
arsenal of tools companies use to differentiate themselves from
competitors. Service quality has become firmly embedded in the communication strategies of companies in various sectors. This can be witnessed
by their clear commitments: a rail transportation company guarantees
reimbursement after a one hour delay; an appliance hard discounter
commits itself by stating that we pay the price difference if you find it
cheaper elsewhere; and fast-food outlets guarantee a waiting time under
10 minutes.
Improving customer experience is the underlying concept behind all
these marketing campaigns. Every contact with the company must be an
enjoyable experience for the customer. His or her satisfaction is what
counts. Many companies, including state-owned enterprises and even
government bodies, have sought out ways to improve customer experience for the services they provide.
Despite efforts made in the automotive distribution sector, service
quality is still lacking compared with other industries, and customers
experiences could be improved. The nature of car distribution makes it
difficult to monitor and improve interfaces with the customer: this is one
reason that car distribution trails other sectors.
Customers experiences with car distributors are rather complex, ranging
from buying a new car to having it maintained and repaired. And the
encounters are quite emotional. The buzz of repairing a car might be overshadowed by anxiety, and customers are never in a good mood when they
have to leave their car at the repair shop. Additionally, the frequency of
interactions with the customer is rather low. Customers do not go to their
dealer every week. Furthermore, the fragmentation of distribution, which
183
+ 23 pts
60
50
40
30
+ 1 pt
20
10
0
1
10
Once the product, the brand image and the costs are in line with customer
needs, the quality of service received at the dealer or garage outlet
strongly influences how the customer perceives the value of the OEM. It
weighs in at around 40 per cent for customers who have already purchased
a vehicle of the particular brand (Figure 7.7).
How can players in the automotive sector improve customers experience? They must make the customer feel welcome, answer the phone
quickly, inform the customer about what has been done to the car, give
advice. They must ensure, for example, that the person who has checked
out the vehicle after a repair is briefed and informed by the person who
checked the car in. This enables consistent feedback about how the service
has or has not met the clients expectations.
184
Major challenges
Perceived value
Value
drivers
Weighting of
drivers
Product
Image
New
customer
Customer
experience
Cost
90
Existing
customer
10
60
40
CAGR
+7.9%
65
Price
41
Warm welcome
29
Proximity
29
44
45 46
48 47
19911993
19941996
19971998
65
61
57
55
44
46
1999
2000
43
41
2001
2002
37
Advice
25
Lead time
24
21
No waiting
No appointments
necessary
12
Reliability/trust
Price
185
This means that repair and maintenance players need to display greater
professionalism if they are to capture and retain customers. Against this
backdrop, it is likely that the OES channel and large branded repair
networks will succeed, clawing market share away from independent
outlets. The success of the fast-fitters can be attributed to their excellent
service quality, standard procedures and codes of conduct including dress
code, clear commitments no appointments and quick service delivery.
1997
2003
5.4
8.1
0.9
2.3
1
10
11
Vehicle age
Several factors explain this trend. These include the increase in mean time
between maintenance services or oil filter changes (even for older cars);
the longer lifecycle stemming from anti-rust metal protection; fewer accidents owing to government action and also because of increased safety
equipment such as antilock braking systems (ABS); fewer broken
186
Major challenges
87
89
91 Catalytic converter
85
89 Airbag
72 ABS
80
75
64
53
60
68 Air-conditioning
60
40
51
37
31
29
11
34
20
9
10 years 7 9 years
and over
5 6
years
3 4
years
2 years
1 year
Vehicle age
187
188
Major challenges
Captive parts:
Body parts
Chassis
Specific parts
23
23
52
75 per cent of
spare parts
could potentially
be substituted
after Eurodesign
77
25
Before Eurodesign
evolution
After Eurodesign
evolution
189
such as lighting, rear lamps and seats. Low-cost suppliers are emerging as
a threat. Spare parts that already fall outside of Eurodesign, such as radiators, filters and spark plugs, are also being threatened by low-cost
suppliers. Non-OE suppliers have captured a 40 per cent market share of
the IAM channel with these sorts of parts.
The degree of impact low-cost suppliers have in various countries
depends on whether or not Eurodesign is applied. The penetration rate of
low-cost adaptable parts suppliers is most striking with old vehicles because
the end-user is extremely cost-sensitive. The owner will likely not resell the
vehicle and often receives no insurance reimbursement. That is why endusers try to have repairs done at minimum cost. When it comes to the older
vehicle segment, end-users search for the cheapest solutions themselves,
even down to spending time at the scrap yard to find a reused part.
Reused parts are also capturing a sizeable market share. In some countries, including France and Germany, Eurodesign prohibits adaptable
products, and the reused segment is much more developed as a result.
Reused parts account for almost 20 per cent of the lighting IAM in France,
for example. Once adaptable products are allowed to be sold, however, the
low-cost adaptable category grows very fast. This has been the case in
Spain, Italy and Eastern Europe. Players such as the Taiwanese headlamp
manufacturer TYC have already captured a strong market share in Spain
and Italy, and particularly in Eastern Europe.
190
Major challenges
Typical cost of repair
Labour
52
Paint
Spare parts
42
the 10 parts that most frequently need replacing represent only 22 per cent
of the total crash parts volume.
Ranking of the parts most frequently
damaged (volume per cent)
39
Headlamp
4.3
Rear end
3.2
Front tank
8
Front rims
18
13
Total
Other
51st
90th
3.0
Radiator grill
21st
50th
22
11th Top
10
20th
2.6
2.4
Licence plate
2.1
Bonnet
2.0
Front bumper
2.0
Front door
1.9
1.9
191
192
Major challenges
CAGR
(per cent)
19932000
20002004
UK
Germany
9.3
3.3
11.7
1.4
France
7.6
3.9
Spain
Italy
8.3
11.2
5.0
11.7
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
193
Non-captives
Captives
Automotive banks
White labels
Independent
financiers
Commercial banks
Volkswagen Financial
Services AG
Europcar Fleet
Services
Sixt
Deutsche Bank
Premium Financial
Services
EBV
Daimler Chrysler
Bank
GE Capital Bank
VR Leasing
BMW Financial
Services
Alphabet
Dresdner Bank
ALD Automotive
Sparkasse
Toyota Financial
Services
Santander Consumer
CC-Bank
GMAC Financial
Services
Renault Bank
Ford Financial
Services
LeasePlan1)
Although the financial services business is not a core activity for car
makers it is highly profitable. Since captive financial institutions have
access to the customer at the point of sale they have developed rapidly.
Finance and insurance activities generally have higher ROCE than car
sales. As well as providing higher profitability, these activities also
provide more stable profits and sales when the core car business is
languishing. Financial services activities also help car makers in the war
for customers and in bolstering customer loyalty. Customer retention is
boosted through effective customer relationship management or by influencing repurchase behaviour, by providing customers with financial
offers that enable them to make a purchase sooner. New customer acquisition arising from complementary financial services cross-over is an
additional advantage.
If we look at the overall expenditure related to a car throughout its lifecycle, financial services account for 24 per cent, with straight financing
accounting for 9 per cent of this (including leasing) and insurance
accounting for 15 per cent. OEMs increasingly rely on their financial
subsidiaries to contribute to profit. As well as being able to boost sales and
earn extra profit, financial subsidiaries also help OEMs stabilize their
profits in times of crisis.
194
Major challenges
Players
No credit
25
35
39
53
Credit
purchased
at the
point of sale
40-48%
36
12
18
Crdit Agricole
BNP Paribas
Deutsche Bank
Santander
Specialized credit
institutions
5-7%
Cetelem
Sofinco
Cofidis
Captives
10%
VW Bank
Credipar, Diac
Fiat Crdit, Ford
Crdit
Specialized credit
institutions
7%
49.5
At the
point of sale
Credit
purchased
outside
point of sale
Outside the
point of sale
Banks
32.5
Cofica CU
Sofinco/Viaxel
CGI
GE Money Bank
Company
Country
Leaseplan Corporation
NL
PHH Arval
600
545
Owned by
Volkswagen AG, 50%;
Olayan Group, 25%;
Mubadala, 25%
BNP Paribas
ALD International
D/F
Volkswagen/Europcar
315
Volkswagen AG
Athlon/Fleet Synergy
NL
310
N/A
DaimlerChrysler Services
310
DaimlerChrysler
Overlease
GE Fleet Services
US
Masterlease
UK
170
General Motors
155
ING
278
220
195
Socit Gnrale
RCI Bank
General Electric
196
Major challenges
Products
Private
customers
<5
Commercial
customers
Small fleet:
520
Fleet
customers
Large fleet:
> 20
Fleet management
Full-service leasing
Leasing
subsidiaries
Maintenance
Insurance
Operating leasing
Captives
Independent
non-captives
Commercial
banks
France
PGA
1,901
Spain
MAHAG1)
801
Quadis
760
Domingo
Alonso
231
Rossello
217
Huertas
198
Itra
177
Schuller
580
AVAG 2)
Bernard
566
Schultz
Zodo
555
Weller
Guedet
539
Dello
600
452
350
800
Total
sales
EUR 4.2 bn
EUR 3.0 bn
EUR 1.6 bn
Total
dealer
outlets
Approx. 17,400
Approx. 23,500
Approx. 8,300
1) 2002 figures
197
Figure 7.19 Top five automotive dealer groups, 2003 (sales in million,
total dealer outlets with service contracts)
Source: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Top 100 automotive distribution groups grow faster
than the market (number of new cars sold in France:
Index 100 in 1999)
CAGR
19992002
123
115
Top 100
110
100
1999
101
OEM subsidiaries
and branches
35
40
Other concessions
and agents
Unofficial imports
20
4.8%
4.5 pts
107
100
101
97
Rest of the
market
102
99
2000
2001
2002
-1.0%
Figure 7.20 Growth and market shares of the top 100 automotive
distribution groups
Sources: Rsoscopie supplement 200120022003, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
198
Major challenges
strong relationship with end-customers; and they have the financial power
to invest in other related businesses such as rental and mobility services.
Dealer groups are currently heavily reliant on OEMs, especially with
regard to spare parts, which they purchase from the OEMs parts and
accessories (P&A) department. However, given their size and potential
bargaining power, dealer groups are becoming attractive targets for spare
parts suppliers or even IAM wholesalers from whom they could potentially get better rebates. In the medium term, we believe that dealer groups
will source many parts directly from suppliers instead of buying from
OEMs. Recent acquisitions of IAM wholesalers by dealer groups support
this. It is a clever tactical move that allows dealer groups to have a foot in
the IAM market while avoiding breaking the sacred rules with OEMs.
Historical situation
Likely development
OEM
OEM
IAM
IAM
Manufacturers
Inventory/
product range
40
47/50
40
47/50
62
70/75
40
40
Automotive
distribution groups
70/75
80
80
62
Repairers
Original parts
Equivalent
parts
Original parts
Original parts
Equivalent parts
Figure 7.21 Automotive distribution groups are closing the OEM and
IAM channel silo (figures represent the average discount rate)
Source: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
199
Aside from P&A, the sheer size of dealer groups will also enable them to
better leverage their strong multi-make regional position. They have the size
to optimize the used car process across different car makes and to develop
services with greater outreach, for instance loans, leasing and renting, as
well as to develop relationships with customers at the local level.
The challenge for dealer groups is to master the transformation from a
multi-make dealers network into a regional integrated player. This challenge is multifaceted and requires well thought out actions. Dealer groups
need to improve customer relationships throughout the lifecycle. This
involves making better use of their multi-make portfolio to provide
customers with appropriate mobility solutions. Dealer groups are also
widening their services offer by launching new services such as car rental
and financial services. Repair and service activities are improved by developing the multi-make body shop factory concept and developing parts
sourcing directly from suppliers, for instance. Under the revised BER,
dealer groups are theoretically allowed to source parts directly from the
equipment and/or parts supplier. By skipping over one rebate level, they
could get better price rebates. Such action is best suited for older cars less
than 10 years of age because these vehicles appear less frequently on the
radar screens of OEMs. Dealer groups also face the challenge of developing the wholesale parts business. Their size enables them to provide
competitive wholesale offers to repairers with similar high-performance
logistics and services levels to those offered by large IAM wholesalers.
Of course, these challenges will not be surmounted without OEMs. The
relationship between dealer groups and OEMs will become increasingly
critical. The impressive size of both players creates a mutual dependency.
The challenge is to develop a winwin situation with OEMs, while
progressively increasing the level of independence.
200
Major challenges
Germany
Annual growth
9.2%
1,110
90
852
52
150
235
200
300
280
Top
Carrosserie
Acoat
selected
Five star
Axial
Spain
18.6%
Annual growth
5,340
650
Carat
800
Temot
4,503
600
680
1,140
2.5%
Annual growth
3,326
512
BYG
191
230
Gecorusa
586 Cecauto
818
819
1,490
1,500
2003
2004
3,246
210
216
Coparts
GAU
1,140
1,350
Centro
1,400
ATR
1,088
300
2001
355
2004
AD
Carrosserie
995
2003
2004
AD Parts
Large affiliated repairer and body shop networks have emerged which
specialize in different areas: these include body shop repairers (mainly
sharing painting and body expertise), insurer networks, and parts
wholesaler networks. By joining forces, these networks could better
leverage their size. This would mean that they could share diagnostic
abilities and better develop partnerships to complete the multi-brand
offer. Branded networks would also help further improve the customer
experience, but the most critical issue for repairers is changing their
repair habits. The way to identify the root cause of a problem with a
vehicle is changing. The empirical approach to repairing cars
deducing the cause of a breakdown from a set of symptoms will soon
no longer be applicable. With all the various electronic systems built
into vehicles, the same symptoms can have many different root causes.
New methodologies, for example root cause analysis and AMDEC, will
have to be acquired by the repairer to properly diagnose vehicle
problems. Repairers today are hardly trained to deal with this new
environment.
201
Germany
AD
1,500
670
3G
400 Starexcel
576
(195)
242
(140)
250
(153)
Total
number
of outlets
Sales
Spain
1,200
Carat
1,200
ATR
380
AD Parts
200 (4)
368
GAU
Espana
260
(28)
52 (11)
7001)
Coparts
87 (17)
259
Centro
Holding
6201)
Temot
128 (4)
1502)
Cecauto
5601)
Centro
115 (16)
402
(28)
500
(151)
132
Serca
390
(304)
155
(70)
Outlets
The large IAM wholesaler Auto Distribution, for instance, covers all
levels in France, from purchasing associations to end-customers. Its activities encompass a parts purchasing association with sales of around
1,044 million and over 700,000 parts numbers, a network of distributors
with around 200 companies and 680 points of sales, seven specialist
202
Major challenges
203
204
Major challenges
205
50
6070
40
1030
3
Repair costs
in 2003
020
2003
7080
7080
2040
2008
1) The guidance rate measures how many clients go to the garage or body shop recommended by the insurer after
an accident
206
Major challenges
Parts suppliers would most likely benefit from taking a more proactive
strategy toward the market. This could include marketing at the repair and
wholesale levels, introducing a pricing and brand positioning that enables
differentiation according to the level of competition for individual parts,
addressing large dealer groups, and exploring all potential growth opportunities, including accessories, niches and other countries.
Market changes offer parts suppliers new ways to capture value
(Figure 7.25).
OES
Suppliers
IAM
OEM parts
(makers)
Equipment suppliers
Other suppliers
Logistics
Super
wholesalers
Makers' subsidiaries
Wholesalers
Purchasing
associations
Wholesalers
Multi-make groups
OES
Customers
Agents
Repairers
Others/
fast fit
207
6.5
8.2
8.7
10.4
10.8
1)
10.6
6.5
3.5
26
27
27
31
36
36
31
7.8
2.5
CAGR: 26%
2.2
3.0
2)
8.2
2.8
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.7
1) Published data not consistent with previous years because of changes in underlying accounting number shown
has been extrapolated based on 2003 figures
2) Based on new accounting
208
Major challenges
209
1 year
4 years
17
7 years
12
210
Major challenges
OEMs face threats on many fronts. Eurodesign and the impact of BER,
consolidation of dealer groups and IAM wholesalers, the increasing penetration of adaptable parts, the growing influence of insurers, and the
number of ageing cars in use are just a few of the threats. But OEMs have
the upper hand when it comes to technology; they also own original parts
and specifications, are able to monitor the used car buy-back process, and
have firm control over financial credit.
All the same, the key success factor for OEMs is to develop an even
more integrated business model, leveraging their bundling competitive advantage across several dimensions. The first step could be to
leverage trade-offs between new and used cars by further monitoring
car flows and the buy-back process through maximizing their European
scale. In a second step, the trade-offs between captive and competitive
spare parts wholesale could be optimized by further expanding
wholesale activities, better controlling spare parts flows, and by optimizing pricing and logistics. A third step could involve improving
repair and service control. This could be achieved by further consolidating their own repairer and body shop networks, and by maintaining
competitive advantage and entry barriers in diagnosis capability.
Further development of the customer experience and service quality
could also be achieved at this stage. In a fourth step, OEMs could try to
develop captive financial services beyond new cars at the point of sale
through leveraging bundled offers and proposing creative solutions to
the customer to beat the competition. A fifth step could involve developing strategies to retain the final customer in the OES channel, by
bundling warranty extensions, mobility services, roadside assistance
and other services.
Facing those challenges will also require adapting the distribution
organization. This must be done at several levels. Many sales and
marketing processes could be managed on an even more European
basis, especially with respect to used and new car pricing and
marketing. An increased level of integration will be required to better
control the distribution, implying the reduction of independent national
sales companies, or to develop more entrenched alliances and to
increase the weight of affiliates. Distribution costs can be further optimized by adapting the traditional country organization into leaner
structures, especially to cope with small countries within the newly
formed EU-25. In this context, leaner structures could mean clustering
business into regions with shared activities at the regional level. Many
activities, from call centres to HR payroll processes, can also be
outsourced.
211
212
Major challenges
213
know what parts have been replaced in the car because everything is
covered in the contract. OE parts, matching quality parts, adaptable or
reused parts are not visible to the end-user. Customers simply purchase a
completely tailored contract providing full mobility service.
214
Major challenges
215
lower total cost. The automotive distribution value chain in Europe is far
from optimum. Significant improvements can be made. Like other industry
experts, we believe that 30 per cent of distribution costs could be eliminated or replaced by providing more added value to the final customer.
216
217
Part II
Case studies
218
219
Partnership as a model
for success
Franz Fehrenbach, Chairman, Robert Bosch GmbH
INTRODUCTORY REMARKS
In the course of many decades, German and European automobile manufacturers and their suppliers have worked hard to achieve their leading
position in the world. A key factor in this success is the tradition of close
cooperation, which has proven its worth and is just as valuable today as it
has always been. This partnership was and is the prerequisite for the stateof-the-art technology with which the German car industry has made a
name for itself across the globe. However, manufacturers and suppliers
must now come to grips with profound changes of various kinds.
One of the main drivers behind these changes is the shifting of weights
in the global automotive market. Asia continues to gain momentum as the
worlds most dynamic growth region. On the one hand, the emerging
markets of Asia present enormous sales opportunities; on the other, international competition is becoming increasingly stiff. New contenders are
coming of age in China and in India. Their goal is to establish themselves
as major players, not only domestically, but also in international markets.
In addition, new market segments are developing: in the emerging
markets of Asia and Eastern Europe, the demand for economy cars is
220
Case studies
growing. Despite their low price, these vehicles must comply with key
consumption and emission standards, since the need to conserve resources
and protect the climate is also growing, and this on a global scale. Such
cars are also attracting the interest of buyers in established markets. If it
wants to participate in global growth, then it is especially the German
automobile industry, with its strong focus on advanced technology, that
must find appropriate responses to these changes.
The sharp upswing in the price of oil poses a further challenge, and has
rekindled the debate about future drive systems. If the automobile is to
remain the favoured means of transportation, the car industry must find a
suitable response to this debate. Moreover, with more and more cars on
the road worldwide and with an increasing density of traffic, heightened
demands will also be placed on safety.
At the same time, the automotive sector is marked by growing
complexity. One reason for this is the growing diversity of models;
another is the industrys increasing international spread. Among other
things, this is leading to a change in the way automotive partners cooperate. Suppliers are assuming more and more tasks in development and
production, tasks involving entire vehicle systems.
These numerous changes raise some important questions. Is the idea of
partnership viable under these new conditions? What form will cooperation between automobile manufacturers and suppliers take in the future?
What factors will be most important for successful cooperation between
partners down the line?
221
222
Case studies
found that was suitable for large-scale series production and thus costeffective. And today, a sensor that once required a bulky housing is
contained in a micromechanical chip no larger than a fingernail. It is also
now available for a hundredth of its original cost.
223
FACTORS IN PARTNERSHIP
The first factor in partnership: independence and
responsibility
In the automotive industry, a key international sector, major successes
have many sources. One of the main reasons for the technological leadership of the German and European automotive industry is undoubtedly
the close cooperation of car manufacturers with independent suppliers
acting on their own responsibility. Close cooperation is characterized by
common goals: both partners work to achieve overriding common
objectives to their mutual benefit. Manufacturers and suppliers see
themselves in many respects as being in the same boat, but especially
when it comes to ensuring that the automobile remains appealing to
consumers on a long-term basis, while at the same time remaining
geared to changing demands on environmental compatibility, safety and
economy.
Entrepreneurial independence and responsibility means that each party
involved is responsible for its own business success, and therefore retains
the authority to decide whether or not to enter into contractual relationships. The other side of the coin is, of course, loyalty to the terms of a
contract, which leads to a complex web of economic interdependencies.
In this regard, business always involves a system of dependencies.
However, this system must be designed for the benefit of all concerned. A
one-sided advantage is generally possible for the short term only, and even
then it poses a threat to the long-term success of the parties involved,
including the supposed winner.
The independence that allows companies to enter into contractual relationships brings with it all the fundamental advantages of the division of
labour. Each partner company specializes in its strengths, concentrating its
competence on the further development of those areas in which its specialization holds particular advantages. And since both sides must also
compete in the marketplace, both feel the pressure to drive innovation and
efficiency with great creativity, as well as to adapt flexibly and consistently
to changing requirements. Based on this proven division of labour, the
ideas and developments of suppliers contribute significantly to technological progress throughout the entire sector. At the same time, they must
make every effort to produce systems and components as cost-effectively
as possible. And in cooperation with manufacturers, they must ensure that
the various systems in a vehicle are perfectly compatible with each other.
224
Case studies
Inequality of power
The independence of suppliers results in tangible benefits for all
concerned, yet working relationships often suffer when there is a disparity
in power between the partners. The fact is that concentration has sharply
increased in the industry. Automobile manufacturers have grown into
worldwide conglomerates that consistently utilize their strong positions,
especially when it comes to purchasing. In principle, what serves to check
this increase in manufacturers market power is the proportion of value
added contributed to the automobile by suppliers in general, which has
now grown to between 60 and 70 per cent. To counter this, manufacturers
pursue a strategy of breaking down systems into components, to enable
them to purchase interchangeable parts at lower prices.
Purchasing prices are not all that is under pressure today. There is a
growing trend towards transferring a greater share of quality risks and the
associated guarantee costs to suppliers, often in full awareness of the risk
of adversely affecting their capacity for innovation. Especially for small
and medium-size suppliers, an individual order can be critical to the
survival of the entire company. For this reason, they are extremely limited
in their freedom to say no, and often agree to accept risks that carry with
them a potential threat to their very existence. Appealing here to the
manufacturers sense of fairness may be an honest approach, but in light
of todays gruelling competition on all sides, it holds little promise of
success. The consequences are only logical: shake-out and increasing
concentration also in the supplier camp.
225
226
Case studies
drive over the past 10 years is to be found in the development of ABS and
ESP, in direct-injection systems for diesel and gasoline engines, and in navigation and driver assistance systems. To achieve this, the Bosch Group has
continuously increased its research and development expenditures in its
automotive technology sector over the same period. Today, these expenditures represent more than 9 per cent of sales in this sector, considerably
above the industry average.
227
be introduced to the market as a way of replacing a number of conventional company-specific solutions. Nearly all major manufacturers and
suppliers worldwide have now joined the initiative. AUTOSAR is thus not
only an example of how partnership allows growing systems complexity
to be brought financially under control to the benefit of all involved; it
also takes account of the increasing levels of global interdependence. The
initiative gives each partner the freedom to differentiate in order to secure
a competitive advantage. At the same time, it will be possible to develop
uniform basic software functions which have no immediate bearing on
competitive position.
228
Case studies
229
230
Case studies
A further challenge for the European automotive industry is the simultaneous development of hybrid solutions. Hybrid drive concepts are mainly
suitable for stop-and-go traffic, and thus offer most of their benefits in
urban areas. Accordingly, the market share of hybrid passenger cars and
light utility vehicles in Japan could reach 10 per cent by 2015. More
modest changes are predicted in the American market, despite notable
initial successes scored mainly by Toyota. The United States is a nation of
long distances, heavy cars and powerful engines. This situation cries out
for partnerships between manufacturers and suppliers, partnerships that
will allow them to shoulder the costs of developing this technology
together. Bosch is working intensively on various hybrid concepts, and
has established a Competence Centre for Hybrid Systems dedicated to
this purpose.
231
232
Case studies
ABS, ESP and high-pressure diesel injection in order to set itself apart from
the price competition. Yet it has become increasingly difficult to retain a
technological edge for any length of time, with the result that innovations
must now face stiff cost competition soon after they are launched. At that
point, if not earlier, it becomes crucial to optimize processes for cost-effectiveness and to consider alternative production sites. For this reason, some
50 per cent of our R&D expenditures today are dedicated to product and
process innovations whose purpose is to reduce costs. At the same time, a
worldwide production network that includes low-cost sites in emerging
markets must be established at an early stage, even for high-tech products.
In the case of the highly innovative common-rail diesel-injection system,
nearly two-thirds of its value added is already created outside Germany. In
this way, Bosch not only meets the demand of producing locally within its
markets, but also reduces total manufacturing costs.
To realize the maximum earnings potential in a given area of business,
it is essential to recognize at an early stage the point at which the competitive advantage of technological differentiation is superseded by price.
Business in systems is typically displaced by business in components as a
technology matures. Today, classic gasoline-injection technology is rarely
delivered as a complete system. However, it is considerably more difficult
to achieve technological differentiation with individual components, such
as injection valves or fuel pumps, than with complete systems. In this
case, the focus is on keeping costs as low as possible, and thus on
optimum processes.
233
234
Case studies
1913, the last year of peace before the First World War, Bosch generated
nearly 90 per cent of its sales abroad. The key product in this early internationalization was the magneto ignition device. It made Bosch an automotive supplier and established the companys global presence, even at
that early stage. Following each of the world wars, however, Bosch had to
go though the difficult process of becoming re-established in international
markets. It was especially difficult to regain a foothold in the aftermath of
the Second World War, as by then the markets were firmly in the hands of
competitors. Moreover, unlike at the beginning of the 20th century, Bosch
was not in a position to offer a product with the same unique appeal as the
high-voltage magneto ignition device.
Like other suppliers, Bosch carried out its new internationalization
initiative in three steps. The company began by supplying original
replacement parts for exported German cars, including Volkswagen and
Mercedes, in the United States. The second phase began after German car
makers had established plants in countries such as Brazil, Argentina,
Mexico and Australia, as early as the 1950s and 1960s. To supply them,
Bosch built its own local production facilities, an especially important
move, as high import duties coupled with local content regulations would
have rendered delivery from German plants impossible. These facilities
continue to exist today, although now following the liberalization of
markets their main advantage is that they allow Bosch to be close to the
customer and to utilize generally lower wage costs. In a third phase, Bosch
succeeded in winning over non-German car makers as original equipment
customers. In the 1990s, important milestones in internationalization
included the acquisition of the brake business of the American manufacturer AlliedSignal and the assumption of industrial leadership at the
Japanese supplier Zexel.
235
236
Case studies
237
238
Case studies
239
from developing and emerging countries will reshuffle the cards: that
much is certain. The question is, however, whether the rules of the game in
international cooperation will also be redefined.
240
Case studies
Trust as a basis
Such relationships, as well as trust, will only survive if all those involved
feel they have been treated fairly and openly. Only then will partners agree
to join forces in long-term, capital-intensive (and risk-oriented) innovation projects. It is on projects such as these that the future viability of
the entire automotive industry depends.
In light of the increasingly interdependent nature of the global automotive industry, it is important to establish such a culture of trust on a
worldwide scale. That means agreeing on shared values or basic principles. In some cases it also means returning to neglected or forgotten
approaches. Once established, the advantage of such shared principles is
that, despite cultural differences, they obviate the need for rigid rules.
From a business standpoint, they reduce risks, lower costs, and create the
basis for long-term relationships. To achieve this, it is essential that all
those involved recognize the fact that close cooperation based on partnership offers both manufacturers and suppliers decisive advantages in
confronting the common challenges they face, and thus a solid basis for
successfully taking the automotive industry into the future.
241
Brand differentiation on
the basis of platform and
module strategies
Dr Bernd Pischetrieder, Chairman, Volkswagen AG
FRAGMENTATION
The global automobile market has been undergoing an intensive process
of change for some time now, with the borderlines between national
markets becoming increasingly blurred and the tempo of information
gathering pace at a tremendous rate. Technical developments are increasingly speeding up, and at the same time the competitive environment in
the automobile markets is becoming progressively tougher.
The growing fragmentation of the markets has become one of the
biggest challenges facing the automobile industry. Recent analyses show
that in 1987, customers discerned nine different vehicle segments, the
perceived dimensions of this segmentation being in particular driving
pleasure, prestige, usefulness and versatility as well as price. By 1997
this number had already risen from 9 to 26 different vehicle segments,
while this year our customers are perceiving no less than 40 (Figure 9.1).
From the automobile manufacturers point of view this means that each
vehicle project requires the production of an ever decreasing number of
units. On the other hand, however, our aim has to be to offer each
customer precisely the car that reflects his or her own individual tastes
and lifestyle.
The continuing market fragmentation is reinforcing the already existing
trend in which the number of models and model families on offer will
242
Case studies
Brand differentiation
243
In many sectors the products are increasingly becoming more homogeneous. Technical innovations are only decisive in the decision to purchase
up to a point, and only to a limited extent are they suitable for setting a
product apart from those of competitors. An empirical survey examined the
relevance of brands in different industry sectors. The analysis of the results
showed that their importance varies significantly (see Figure 9.3). For
example, brand names are of little significance for energy providers but
occupy a very high level of importance where automobile manufacturers
are concerned. In this automobiles are comparable to other luxury goods
such as expensive watches. This means that from the point of view of our
customers automobile buyers the car represents a special opportunity to
set off their own individual personality in an individual manner. The choice
of brand is thus also linked with a certain attitude to life, or set of values.
5.0
.
..
Luxury goods
3.8
Automobiles
3.8
Food / beverages
3.6
5 = high brand
relevance*
...
Telecommunications
3.3
Energy providers
2.5
...
1.0
1 = no brand
relevance*
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each individual brand. Brand-typical segments and body styles are then
selected in the fourth phase. The strategy for each individual brand then
has to be put into long-term practice at the operational level by way of an
optimal marketing mix (Figure 9.4).
Brand differentiation
245
brand values are intended to firm up the brand cores and provide effective
and lasting expression of explicit brand associations. All activities relating
to a brand have to be consistent with these brand values. Similarly, the
defined mission is orientated to the brand image and has to be authentic. A
failure of the substance of products to live up to the claims made for them,
and thus also failure to satisfy the customers wishes and requirements in
terms of the brand, means that the brand lacks grounding and comes over
on the whole as lacking credibility. These insights apply to a far greater
degree in the automotive industry than in many other sectors. In addition,
manufacturers with several brands are faced particularly with the
necessity to clearly demarcate their brands and models in the product
segments, in order to avoid any overlapping of product ranges and thus
any risk of cannibalization (see Figure 9.5).
2003:1994
Markt +19%
Porsche +203%
Audi +74%
Mercedes +71%
Quality
leaders
Qualittsfhrer
BMW +31%
Premiummarken
Premium
brands
VW +17%
Renault +15%
Opel -12%
Ford -12%
Fiat -22%
Seat +28%
Peugeot +30%
Citroen +49%
Cost
leaders
Kostenfhrer
Toyota +110%
Base brands
Hyundai +191%
Skoda +319%
Kia + 440%
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Brand differentiation
247
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platform and thrown onto the market. These products then compete
with each other in similar or the same market segments, resulting in a
cannibalization of the products within the companys brands. This effect
can also be described as segment saturation. Besides the effects on
product and brand strength, the decisive risk generated by a development
of this nature lies in the possible impact on earning power. An uncoordinated multiplicity of increasingly similar products generally leads to
rising costs and a downward revenue trend. Negative cost effects in
particular result from the inevitably arising type-specific development,
production, marketing and distribution costs.
A further critical aspect lies in the cost spread, and the difficulty of
asserting a clearly defined price hierarchy when there are platform-similar
products in a segment. The possible effects of product positioning that is
platform-driven and no longer market-driven should therefore on no
account be left out of consideration (see Figure 9.8).
Brand differentiation
249
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Brand differentiation
Product differentiation
Brand portfolio
251
Platform strategy
Multi-brand strategy
Individual marketing
Brand images
Module strategy
252
10
253
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can confidently say that we are in the passing lane. And the Opel brand is
in the drivers seat: in comparison with competitors products, its new cars
boast the lowest operating costs of all. These are the findings of a
comparison test carried out by the German Automobile Club (ADAC).
Europes largest automobile club is not alone in giving our Opel brand
top marks. Two of the most reputed research institutes in the automobile
industry, the Automotive Research Center at the University of Bamberg
(FAW) and the Institute for Automotive Research at the University of
Applied Sciences Nrtingen (IFA), examined the satisfaction of car
dealers: outstanding scores confirmed Opels upward quality trend.
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259
PORTFOLIO POSITIONING
Opel and Vauxhall, Saab, Chevrolet and Cadillac as the worlds largest
car manufacturer, we must position each of these brands unambiguously
in order to precisely address the needs of a broad market spectrum. This
does not mean reinventing our brand, but rather sharpening its profile in
the context of our multi-brand strategy. Cadillac is our luxury brand in
the high-end segment, while Saab is our classic, distinctive premium
brand; Opel and Vauxhall represent the innovative, high-quality core
brands of our volume business, and Chevrolet offers significant growth
potential as the foundation brand in volume business. With each model
General Motors introduces to the market, the positioning becomes more
sharply defined.
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The success of the new Zafira and Astra clearly shows that the brand
definition focusing on dynamics, versatility and quality is extremely well
received. Further models, like an SUV, will afford Opel an even broader
base. In the case of Saab, GM initiated an important product portfolio
expansion this year with the 93 SportCombi; additional models will
follow. And Chevrolet puts GM in an excellent position to react to current
market trends with models like the economical entry-level Matiz.
An automobile manufacturer operating on a global scale requires a
broad market base in Europe. This is not something we can afford to take
for granted: GM must detect trends and adapt the model portfolio accordingly. Even highly successful models like the Opel Vectra, Europes bestselling mid-size class sedan, must be updated continuously. Customers
expect innovation in terms of both technical features and interior
comfort in these models too.
Our decision to market the vehicles produced by GMs Korean business
unit Daewoo specifically for sale in Europe as Chevrolets has proven
correct. This is confirmed by our sales figures: in the first half of 2005,
GM Europe sold around 117,000 Chevrolets throughout Europe, 25 per
cent more than in the same period of the previous year. The objective is an
annual sales volume of 200,000 cars. Chevrolets are entry-level GM
models, in Europe and worldwide. The brand is positioned below Opel,
yet it offers not only outstanding value for money, but also perhaps most
importantly quality, cost-effectiveness, appealing design and a long
service life. GM remains extremely active in this segment, with competitively priced entry-level models that look back on years of market success,
such as the Matiz.
A global corporation must also be strong in the premium sector.
Customers looking for a luxury automobile with an individual character
can find the answer in the Cadillac BLS. Built in Trollhttan, Sweden, the
BLS offers high-quality equipment at an attractive price. This is also the
first Cadillac with a diesel engine, and the first to be developed especially
for the European market. GM Europe sees a pan-European annual sales
potential of up to 10,000 units for the BLS. From a business standpoint,
these are substantial figures. With dynamic cars, a state-of-the-art engine
range and innovative, distinctive design, the Cadillac brand has enhanced
its luxury image with forward-looking technology.
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no coincidence: Brazil uses pure ethanol from sugar cane to produce its
most widespread fuel, E100.
With the world premiere of the new Zafira 1.6 CNG (compressed natural
gas) at the IAA in Frankfurt, Opel presented the new generation of
Germanys best-selling natural gas vehicle. As the market leader in natural
gas propulsion, Opel has made these vehicles popular one in three natural
gas vehicles sold is an Opel Zafira. Outstanding results in crash tests have
done a great deal to help dispel fears and prejudices concerning natural gas
cars. The Zafira 1.6 CNG boasts superb economic efficiency.
Taking average fuel consumption of approximately 5.3 kg of natural gas
per 100 km and the current price of around 0.78 per kilo of natural gas,
fuel costs can be reduced by approximately 30 per cent compared with
diesel variants, or even around 50 per cent compared to gasoline models.
Taxes and insurance ratings are on the same level as those of its 1.6 litre
gasoline counterpart. The Zafira CNG with an output of 71 kW/97 hp also
offers distinct advantages in terms of environmental compatibility: this
type of propulsion generates 80 per cent less nitrogen oxide than a diesel
and around 25 per cent lower CO2 emissions than a gasoline engine
(diesel: minus 10 per cent). In addition, the emissions are free from soot
particles, ensuring that the Zafira CNG is not affected by potential driving
bans in large cities.
263
be the focus. New developments should not be dictated by what is technically feasible. Ultimately, our job as manufacturers is to deliver a
costbenefit ratio in healthy balance. This is why GM Europe sees further
potential primarily in the area of active and passive safety.
Engineers at the GM European Development Center are currently developing a driver assistance system with innovative sensor technology for series
production. The objective of this system is to further support the driver and
increase safety and comfort in road traffic. An integral part of the GM
philosophy is to make useful innovations affordable for as many drivers as
possible. This trend-setting driver assistance system with adaptive distance
and speed control automatically maintains a constant safety zone to the
vehicle ahead in all driving situations, from stop-and-go traffic to high-speed
highway driving. Integrated in an Opel Vectra GTS, this technology is ideal
for everyday use. It employs road data, along with specially developed
enhanced power steering, to stay on track in other words, the vehicle steers
automatically to correct deviations from the centre of the lane.
GM develops new technologies within the framework of the global GM
Group, which are then made available to each of our brands. This applies
to everything from future drive systems to advances in vehicle electronics.
Drivers in Europe have always associated new propulsion concepts such
as fuel cells or natural gas with the Opel brand. These technologies must
be affordable to yield real benefits, which is only possible in combination
with high-volume production.
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developing future-oriented cars and niche models with new concepts for
flexibility and versatility. GM is planning a total of 45 attractive new
models and variants in the next five years. The reorganization of GM
Europe is a key component in creating ideal conditions for its brands to
realize this model initiative. At the same time, the Group is significantly
improving the effectiveness of its investments.
ONE COMPANY
The key to success for our European business lies in thinking and acting as
one single company. GM has traditionally been a multi-brand organization, comprised of largely independent brands that were managed separately. There are advantages to this approach, such as the benefit of strong
regional brands that adapt to and meet specific regional market needs.
However, we cannot overlook the disadvantages. These include the fact
that the considerable potential GM offers by virtue of its sheer size was
not realized sufficiently. The opportunities presented by the joint vehicle
architectures, components and processes throughout the Group were
exploited on a limited basis only.
Yet the concept of a global car, at times favoured by other car makers, is
no recipe for success either. In fact this approach has never worked, nor
will it work in the future. For this reason, GM pursues a strategy of balance.
We strive to achieve a perfect equilibrium between centralized
management and coordination on the one hand, and decentralized responsibility for local market needs on the other. In other words, GM is aiming
for the best of both worlds autonomous brand responsibility hand in hand
with strategic management from a single source. This is of crucial importance for the future success of the GM Group, GM Europe and each of the
Group brands.
GM will continue to develop and build cars for national and regional
markets, supporting brand identities in becoming recognizable and
tangible to customers. At the same time, shared development processes,
development of new technologies, vehicle architectures and components
will be further exploited. But the basic principle remains: GM cars are
adapted to the regional markets.
In this context, GM enjoys a decisive advantage due to its size, provided
this size is leveraged efficiently. All of the resources that a global player
like GM has must be utilized, while redundant processes and duplicated
developments within General Motors Europe and the Group as a whole
must be eliminated.
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billion in the development of fuel cell vehicles. The result of this investment
is the HydroGen3, a close-to-production prototype based on the Opel
Zafira, which has already proven itself in everyday use. The HydroGen3 has
successfully passed another endurance test, emerging as victor among fuel
cell cars at the first Rallye Monte Carlo Fuel Cell and Hybrids.
GMs European and global resources are a decisive factor in bringing
fuel cell technology to volume production maturity. All GM brands will
benefit from this, but no one brand alone could carry the burden of developing and introducing to market such a groundbreaking technology.
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270
11
How electronics is
changing the automotive
industry: from component
suppliers to system
partners
Peter Bauer, Member of the Management Board, Infineon
Technologies AG
Networking
n
n
Electronic
transmission
control
n
n
n
n
Electronic
injection
Electronic
ignition
Check
control
Speed
control
Central
locking
etc.
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
Electronic
climate control
ASC: anti-slip
control
ABS: anti-lock
braking
system
Telephone
Seat heating
control
Auto-dimming
mirror
1970
n
n
n
n
n
n
8080
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
Advanced MMI
ALC
AFS
Night vision
TLC
ACC stop & go
Force feedback
pedal
Lane changing
warning
Int. energy
management
Local hazard
warning
CO2 reduction
Telematics
Online services
Integrated
security systems
Fuel cells
LH2
Individualization
Software
1990
80286
8086
Adaptive
transmission
control
Roll stabilization
Xenon light
RDS/TMG
Emergency
calling
Servotronics
Electronic
suspension
control
1980
4004
Navigation
system
CD changer
Bus systems
ACC: active
cruise control
Airbag
DSC: dynamic
stability controls
2000
80386
68000
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
271
Electromechanical
valves
Tyre pressure
sensors
42 volt system
Impact
protection
Steer-by-wire
Brake-by-wire
Throttle-by-wire
Black box
Bluetooth
Multimedia
systems
Wireless
connectivity
2010
Pentium II
Pentium IV
1,338
2,430
2,561
28.8%
21.5%
12.0%
9.2%
1995
3,756
+3.6%
+6.4%
electrical/electronic
compound
annual growth rate share
(%)
3,341
31.9%
Total E/E share
22.4%
20.9%
13.5%
16.1%
6.3%
7.9%
2000
2005
2010
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Market
penetration
in %
100
Nice-to-have technology
Comfort (eg airconditioning, power
windows, central locking)
90
80
Development direction
273
70
60
40 sample technologies
examined using a 35-year
timeframe
50
40
Niche technology
Individual thrills (eg memory
function, trunk extender,
seats with massage function)
30
20
10
0
0
1st product
lifecycle
10
15
20
25
30
2nd product
lifecycle
35
40
45
Years
Figure 11.4 The automotive industry is taking heat from all sides
Sources: McKinsey/PTW-HAWK survey 2003, Infineon
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it is not the number of extra features and fittings that will determine a
companys lasting success. It is more important to develop appropriate
business and profit models that shape the underlying cost structures, and
also to establish a suitable position in the value chain. Finance is therefore
the biggest issue facing the automotive industry. Given the growing
complexity of automotive electronics, how can a constant stream of innovation be churned out reliably and affordably? And who is to bear the cost
of this innovation?
275
Dimmable
exterior mirrors
Automatic
climate
control
Engine
management
Tyre protection
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steps to acquire skills in this field. One reason is that they do not want to
fall behind their competitors. Another is to avoid becoming completely
dependent on outside suppliers. Premium manufacturers in particular are
spearheading this trend. For them, electronics is now clearly recognized
as a core competence.
The trend is also reflected in the practice of launching subsidiaries (such
as BMW Car IT, Audi Electronics Venture and the Porsche Engineering
Group), in the establishing of competence centres (such as the Audi
Electronics Center, which opened in mid-2005), in moves to ramp up inhouse development departments, and in the introduction of specific electronics strategies. Auto makers are also recruiting more and more
electronics engineers and IT experts.
It is, as we have seen, important for car makers to deepen their
knowledge of electronics, but not only because of the technical risks
mentioned above. Unless these companies fully understand what automotive electronics really involves, how will they ever be able to optimize
the way they assign tasks to outside suppliers? How will they be able to
judge and coordinate these efforts? The same principle applies to the
commercial appraisal of suppliers performance. Unless they acquire a
suitably detailed technical understanding, car makers will be unable to
reliably compare the components and services of different suppliers. By
no means least, they will not be able to optimize the in-car integration of
complete electronic systems unless they have the skills they need to do so.
As more and more electronic content finds its way into cars, the need
for an in-depth knowledge of software will also grow in the next few years
as this becomes a focal point in the value chain. Software lays the foundation for all kinds of new in-vehicle functions, over and above deeper
integration and greater flexibility. For example, software can allow new
applications to be built into a car during its lifecycle.
Car makers clearly see this as a new source of revenues. Consequently,
they will increasingly use software as a unique selling proposition. Here
again, however, specific knowledge is needed in order to find new
business models with which to tap softwares potential to the full. An
example from the mobile communication industry illustrates just how
important this factor is. Some mobile phone makers have tried to buy in
entire platforms and outsource software expertise in the volume segment.
However, their attempts have showed that market success is closely linked
to a mastery of the technologies involved. In this industry, the successful
players are those that have kept and cultivated in-depth, applicationoriented software engineering competence in-house.
For many auto makers, software is a relatively new field. Especially in
the area of software maintenance and updates, many questions remain
277
Market volume
5 270 billion
+ 400%
5100 bn
Market volume
5125 billion
+ 70%
5 25 bn
5 170 bn
5100 bn
2000
Hardware
2010
Software
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Lifespan of
15 years
Development 3 months
Lifespan
6 months
Consumer
Semiconductor
Development,
9 months
Lifespan of
35 years
279
ZVEI, the German electrical engineering and electronics industry association, has set up a workgroup to examine the long-term provisioning of
electronic replacement parts for the automotive industry. Car makers,
suppliers and chip manufacturers (including Infineon) are collaborating in
this group to formulate suitable models. Standardizing the components
used and committing to the retro-development of components whose
stocks are exhausted would be one possible option. In light of the huge
costs involved, however, this possibility is of limited practical value. By
improving storage capabilities, it would at least narrow the provisioning
gap. The cost would nevertheless remain exorbitant.
The early exchange of information throughout the entire process chain
could also solve some of the provisioning problems. This might even work
when changes are made to semiconductor products while a vehicle model
is still being produced. Clear communication and greater transparency
would nevertheless be needed to ensure long-term provisioning and guarantee quality levels. Only then can the full potential of innovation in electronics be exploited and applied in the auto industry. Auto makers will
depend on strategic partnerships with semiconductor manufacturers,
which in turn must clearly commit to ensuring the long-term availability of
the technologies needed by automotive electronics. In this context, car
companies must nevertheless remember two important things. One is that
maintaining ageing technologies necessarily incurs additional costs. The
other is that long-term provisioning can only be guaranteed by semiconductor firms for which automotive electronics is part of their core business.
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SW
SW
SW
component 1
component 2
component n
AUTOSAR
interface
AUTOSAR
interface
..
281
AUTOSAR
interface
QuickTime and a
decompressor
AUTOSAR RTE
are needed to see this picture.
Basis software
Network management
NVRAM management
etc.
Microcontroller abstraction
ECU hardware
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283
link between different suppliers, each of which, in accordance with the car
makers specifications, delivers separate but networked sub-systems. If the
companies involved are not brought together around the same table
throughout the entire process, it is unlikely that a workable solution will be
the outcome. Problems are bound to occur in the attempt to develop and
coordinate so many sub-systems. Moreover, the car maker depends on
transparency with regard to the suppliers processes. A clear overview of all
tributary processes is essential if all the different systems are finally to be
blended together perfectly in the vehicle concerned.
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285
want to stay competitive, both must inject a new quality into their relationships with their suppliers. Ideally, collaboration between components
suppliers, system suppliers and car makers will be very close.
Semiconductor manufacturers must be involved as early as possible in the
preliminary development and development projects run by first-tier
suppliers and the car makers themselves.
For many years, Infineon has been working closely with both system
suppliers and automobile companies in order to supply efficient and optimally tailored semiconductor solutions. To fully understand what an
application requires at an early stage, and to ensure that its solutions
genuinely meet these requirements, Infineon engages in in-depth dialogue
with the car makers. This form of interaction also plays an important part
in the early development of innovative products.
Sub-system/application
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process. When these different players cooperate across the entire value
chain, the car companies can assume responsibility for the system as a
whole, for drawing up specifications and coordinating the various
suppliers. System suppliers can shoulder responsibility for integrating the
applications they deliver, while semiconductor firms such as Infineon can
take care of integrating their chips. Substantial synergies can be derived
from this approach to innovation synergies from which everyone who
plays a part in the value chain will benefit. Ultimately, the resultant
savings will also help underwrite the cost of innovation.
For all the efforts already in progress, there are still far more questions
than answers about how solutions that satisfy all players can be found to
the challenges raised by automotive electronics. It is, for instance, interesting to ask why the automotive electronics market is so fiercely
contested despite such immense challenges. System suppliers, component
suppliers and semiconductor companies alike are all stepping up their
activities in this market. Although the automobile market as a whole is
unlikely to expand by more than a modest 3 per cent per year, one reason
for such keen interest is undoubtedly the expectation of significantly
stronger growth in automotive electronics. The market for automotive
semiconductor applications, say, is forecast to grow by an average of
around 7 per cent per year between 2005 and 2010 (see Figure 12.11).
4 0 ,0 0 0
7.8% CAGR
8,940
Infotainment
2 0 ,0 0 0
3 0 ,0 0 0
2 0 ,0 0 0
6,724
7.2% CAGR
14,427 Body +
chassis
3,935 Infotainment
3,150
10,920
7,806
Safety
1 0 ,0 0 0
4,919
3,994
Safety
2,595
13,657 Powertrain
Body +
chassis
5,265
1 0 ,0 0 0
10,655
7,083
3,511
4,142 Powertrain
2005
2010
0
2005
2010
289
290
12
INTRODUCTION
The automotive world is changing at a rapid speed. The demands of
consumers are becoming ever more differentiated. Their demand for
mobility is increasing, and development and production cycles are
shortening dramatically. Globalization has intensified the speed of
change even more. While auto makers open up new niche markets, new
competitors are pushing into the market. In addition, record price levels
for raw materials are driving up costs and demanding ever more efficient development and production practices. In parallel, hedge funds
have discovered an industry traditionally of little attraction to them,
probing acquisitions which only a few years ago would have been
unthinkable.
Despite these far-reaching processes of change, the automotive industry
is, without any qualifications, one of the key industries of the global
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MAGNA TODAY
Over the past years, Magna has grown very dynamically in both quantitative and qualitative ways. In this context, the acquisition of SteyrDaimler-Puch in 1998 was certainly a special milestone. Besides
increasing sales, through this acquisition Magna entered a new
dimension within the auto supplier industry. It added complete vehicle
competence, which meant that Magna was now accepted by OEMs as a
fully fledged engineering and manufacturing partner. Comprehensive
know-how, in combination with a very broad and high-quality product
portfolio, along with a global footprint, really do mark unique selling
propositions.
Based on this, in 2004 Magna accomplished another jump in sales.
Magna Steyr contributed substantially to this by increasing its complete
vehicle production from 118,000 units in 2003 to 227,000 units in
2004, thereby doubling sales and almost tripling earnings before
income and tax (EBIT).
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Its complete vehicle competence has raised Magna to a new level and
created an exceptional competitive advantage. Major projects like the
Saab 93 Convertible, the BMW X3 and the Jeep Grand Cherokee are
proof of the high acceptance Magna Steyr has received for its complete
vehicle know-how. In 2004 Magna Steyr built more than 227,000
vehicles, a sixfold volume increase over 1998. A former low-volume
manufacturer has thus become the worlds largest auto maker without a
brand of its own. In the process, the number of employees increased from
5,000 to about 10,000.
Magnas all-wheel drive and powertrain competence is organized
within Magna Powertrain. Here, Magna is a worldwide leader in technology. There is hardly an all-wheel drive vehicle in the premium segment
that does not utilize all-wheel drive know-how from Magna Powertrain.
With the acquisition of New Venture Gear and the integration of what was
previously Magnas Tesma group, one of the worldwide leading powertrain specialists has emerged.
Cosma is the worldwide largest supplier of metal body systems in the
auto supplier industry. Its product portfolio ranges from small stampings
to structural parts and assemblies and large Class A stampings, all the way
to complete bodies-in-white.
The Magna Donnelly group, which specializes in mirror systems and
electronics, is also the market leader in its business field. Products by
Magna Donnelly find their way into more than half of all vehicles
produced worldwide. In the booming Chinese market, Magna Donnelly
has a market share of about 80 per cent, and about every third mirror
actuator is made by Magna Donnelly.
Magnas exteriors group is Decoma. As a supplier of complete
vehicle exteriors, Decoma has a leading position in the market. Its
product portfolio ranges from exterior trim components to bumpers,
lighting systems, body side panels, and from tailgates to complete front
and rear end modules.
Intier Automotive Interiors covers the entire vehicle interior, its
portfolio spanning from complete dashboard systems to side and
overhead trim, floor carpets and acoustic systems, to complete vehicle
interior integration.
The focus of Intier Automotive Seating is on the development and
manufacturing of vehicle seats, complete seating systems and seating
mechanisms.
The business fields of Magna Closures are latching systems, electrical
and mechanical window regulators, actuators and mechanisms for doors
and tailgates.
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10%
20%
55%
Steuern &
Re-Investition
6%
7%
2%
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Job security
Fair treatment
Hotline
305
quality product at a competitive price. The prerequisite for this is the appropriate training and retraining of employees. To encourage individual qualifications and to expand the knowledge network within the company, Magna
therefore offers special programmes for human resource development.
These include counselling on future professional development; specific
training programmes tailored to individual interests and capabilities; and
assistance in establishing contact with external institutions.
A further aspect in this context is the companys open communication
and information policy. Through a consistent and company-wide open
door policy, Magna encourages communication within the company and
creates a positive climate for cross-group cooperation.
An instrument like the Magna employees charter will only show an
effect if it is more than lip service. An employee opinion survey guarantees that these principles are adhered to within the divisions and that
management is upholding them. All employees are surveyed regularly
every 12 to 16 months using a standardized system. The results of the
employee opinion survey directly become part of management evaluation
by Magnas top executives. They quickly lead to specific action plans to
solve the problems pointed out in the survey.
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Shortened
lifecycles
New price
mechanisms
Serving
additional
niches
When we look at the production and sales volumes of various models and
different OEMs, it is clear that in order to cover production peaks or for
the production of niche vehicles capacities are required which are not
needed over the full product lifecycle.
Given that strongly varying volumes and inefficient capacity utilization
cause disproportionately high costs, Magna Steyr is currently in
discussion with several OEMs with regard to a so-called peak-shaving
plant. Such a plant would be operated by an external partner Magna
Steyr in this case and become an integral part of OEM strategies for
handling peak levels of production.
The model presupposes that several OEMs would be willing to cooperate with direct competitors, in order to generate a benefit for everyone
involved. The current change processes within the automotive industry
and the growing readiness for strategic alliances are indications that there
is a strong potential for this business model.
The operator of this peak-shaving plant must be capable of building
very different vehicles in the same facility. Magna Steyrs Graz plant is
the tried and tested role model of such a highly flexible factory (flex
plant). Graz currently builds seven different vehicles, each on a separate
platform, for five different brands, and within three very different OEM
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worlds. It goes without saying that the specific brand characteristics for
each brand are maintained. Using the Magna Steyr Production System
(MSPS) to bring the capabilities together and put them to work, Magna
Steyr presents itself to the OEMs as a qualified operator for that kind of
peak-shaving plant.
CONCLUSION
The future of the automotive industry will be characterized by technology
partnerships at eye level, with suppliers increasingly moving from parts
suppliers to module suppliers to systems integrators. This is another evolutionary step for the automotive industry. The rules of this game are not big
beats small or strong beats weak, but rather flexible beats inflexible, fast
beats slow, and open and willing to learn beats rigid and bureaucratic.
Magna will expand its leading-edge competences in automotive technology to continue setting the pace for technological progress within the
industry. In the interest of a positive evolution of the company and a
lasting improvement of its competitive position, this is a necessary step.
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Figure 13.1 The first serial-production passenger car with diesel drive,
the Mercededs-Benz 260 D
1950s par excellence, and the Type 180 could already win the competition with gasoline engines in terms of sales figures. In 1971, the
millionth diesel passenger car rolled off the assembly line in
Sindelfingen. Over the years, numerous records were set with MercedesBenz diesel passenger cars, and the diesel drive made huge progress
especially in terms of technology. In 1996, the first passenger car with
diesel direct injection was introduced, and 1997 saw a technological
quantum leap with the introduction of common-rail direct injection
(CDI) in combination with four-valve technology. Since then, the abbreviation CDI today available in its third generation with piezo-electric
injectors is a symbol for both unrivalled fuel economy and enormous
torque boost a synonym for high propulsion power, which guarantees
lots of driving pleasure and often gives diesel engines a competitive edge
over gasoline engines.
Until today, the essential advantage of the diesel engine over the
gasoline engine was its clearly higher efficiency and the concomitant
lower fuel consumption. Thus the diesel requires between 20 and 40 per
cent less fuel than a comparable gasoline engine. Over the years, the
specific disadvantages, such as the engine-power characteristics and the
creation of vibrations and noise, have been significantly improved with a
whole range of technical innovations, such as first five-cylinder diesel
engines and production-quality turbo-diesel engines.
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The exact exhaust-gas limit values for the Euro-5 standard are currently
being discussed in the European Union, and a further reduction of the limit
values for NO and PM prescribed in the Euro-4 standard can be expected.
Figure 13.3 Emission limit values for diesel passenger cars in the
European Union, United States and Japan
For about a year now, the limit values for PM10 particulate matter have
become an issue of increasing public awareness. This was triggered by the
EUs Clean Air Directive, which was transposed into German national law
in 2002. As a consequence of this regulation, some cities, such as
Stuttgart, will ban truck traffic from passing through, should the daily
average values exceed or approach the limit values. This especially
concerns high-traffic inner-city routes. Whether these measures will lead
to sustainable success must be doubted, especially since various studies
have shown that, in Germany, road traffic only accounts for 25 per cent of
PM emissions.
A significant reduction in diesel particulate emissions and compliance
with future particle limit values could be achieved with the introduction of
the service-free diesel particulate filter for diesel passenger cars in autumn
2003. Since summer 2005, Mercedes-Benz has been offering service-free
diesel particulate filters as standard equipment for all diesel vehicles in
many countries. NOx are the only remaining exhaust-gas component for
which the diesel engine shows poorer values than the gasoline engine. For
NOx, which can lead to irritation of the respiratory system above a certain
concentration and which contribute to the creation of acid rain and the
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BLUETEC
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The E 320 BLUETEC also presented in Detroit will be the first serial
production passenger car with BLUETEC and will be offered, at first only in
the United States and Canada, from autumn 2006 onwards. The BLUETEC
serial production vehicle is the cleanest diesel vehicle the customer can buy
worldwide and therefore has the potential of fulfilling the worlds strictest
exhaust-gas limit values and hence also those of all 50 US states. A basic
requirement for the successful use of BLUETEC is the use of low-sulphur
fuel with a sulphur content of less than 15 parts per million (ppm). This will
be available across the United States from autumn 2006.
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Corporation and the BMW Group, which will improve the performance
characteristics, the fuel consumption and the range of a conventional
hybrid vehicle. The advantages of the new system enable us to offer our
customers convincing hybrid vehicles with attractive performance,
comfort, fuel-consumption and emission characteristics at competitive
prices. With the Dodge Durango, we will introduce the first Two-Mode
hybrid drive to the market in the beginning of 2008, and shortly after that,
we will extend our offer with further models.
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This chapter is about a rapidly growing auto parts company from India that
has become a thriving multinational. I review our progress and argue that
cost arbitrage is a misplaced notion, and it is the intellectual capital
advantage at the macro level, and its management at the micro level, that
explains the emergence of players like us in the global arena. I then attempt
to explain our management philosophy in terms of vision, focus and action.
Through that perspective I dwell on three key business drivers:
technology;
scale and growth;
competitiveness.
Finally I present our perspective about, and plans for, the future, which
essentially hinge on harnessing intellectual capital for providing full
service, innovation and deriving the synergies of a global organization.
With this, the essential proposition to the reader interested in mastering
automotive challenges is that there is a lot that is possible at the company
level through a fundamental business-driven approach coupled with a
risk-taking ability.
The tumultuous macro-level challenges facing the automotive industry are
amplified when they confront parts suppliers to that industry. The demand
derived from nature, whose prospects are in general cyclic, and are specifically based on the programmes and customers the industry caters for, as well
as the structure that sandwiches an already fragmented base between
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powerful buyers on one side and powerful raw material suppliers on the
other, almost seem to make the auto parts industry intrinsically unattractive.
Yet we at Bharat Forge can pride ourselves on being a successful global auto
parts company. From our largest single-location factory based in India to
global footprints through acquisitions in Europe and the United States and a
recent joint venture in China, we have achieved visibility beyond the
purchasing departments of the automotive industry.
For the information of those who are yet to know us well, we have risen
to a leading position in the merchant forging industry in just over 40 years
of existence. Today we are the leading supplier to almost all the global
OEMs and tier 1 suppliers for forged and machined engine and chassis
components which are critical for the safety and performance of automobiles, like crankshafts and axle beams. We have capabilities in steel and
aluminum forgings that add value to a significant proportion of these parts
through highly complex machining. We support our customers in frontend design and development, and in post-production testing and validation. We supply commercial vehicle and passenger car segments as well
as non-automotive sectors such as the oil and gas industry. In certain
product categories we already have global market leadership.
Over the last few years we have experienced a scorching organic
growth rate of 4045 per cent per year, then topped this up with a spate of
acquisitions. Our consolidated revenue in the financial year ended March
2006 was about US $700 million, of which close to two-thirds was from
outside India. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of total group
sales over the last four years works out to 66 per cent, while the corresponding figure for revenue outside India is 110 per cent. The Indian operation also sells almost half its output abroad (the figure was just about 20
per cent five years ago), and is the largest Indian exporter of auto parts.
The first and commonest reaction to the success of players such as us is
that they are from LCCs (low cost countries) and therefore the result of
the outsourcing drives of OEMs. Yet which automotive buyer would use
cost as the sole consideration? For example, the costs of line downtimes
caused by logistics or quality-related problems would be far higher than
can be compensated for by any costs saved at the parts level. Lower costs
can be necessary as qualifiers but they can never be sufficient by themselves as winners.
One explanation is that the buyers themselves equip suppliers from
emerging regions (LCCs) with the other hygiene factors required, such
as quality systems and supply chain management, in return for getting
lower-cost supplies. While this is true to some extent, it is neither valid for
all companies, nor does it fully explain how some suppliers can be betterthan-average profitable in a sustainable manner, for this requires that they
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become world class, and becoming world class has to be result of an urge
and effort from within.
So finally what explains the fact that there are some emerging players
from emerging regions, like us, who if they have not yet been noticed by
customers, competitors and the world in general, will be over the next
few years?
Before I get into this, let me digress a bit and unequivocally state that
there is an Indian advantage, which indeed provides us with a macro-level
edge, but that advantage is different from what it is normally perceived to
be. Auto part outsourcing is gathering pace as end-vehicle prices are
expected to remain stable in the future while customers expect vehicles to
have more and better features. OEMs and tier 1 suppliers in Western
Europe and the United States are therefore looking to cut costs by
sourcing from or creating bases in the lower-cost economies of Eastern
Europe, South America, South-East Asia, China, India and so on.
The Indian auto parts industry has been growing in double digits for the
last few years, with the exports driving the growth. However, its annual
turnover is still only about US $9 billion, of which about US $1.5 billion
is from exports; it has not even scratched the surface of the global
outsourcing potential. While self-sufficient in many respects, its large
base of more than 6,000 manufacturing units is highly fragmented. Only
around 5 per cent of the companies might be organized enough, for
various historic reasons, to tap this global opportunity.
At the same time, all the reports, predictions and indicators regarding
this industry are highly positive. With every year, a higher proportion of
exports is going to OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers rather than to replacement
markets. According to a report by McKinsey, India-based automotive
component manufacturing has the potential to grow to US $3340 billion
by 2015, of which US $2025 billion would be in exports. Growth in
domestic consumption to US $1315 billion is also not out of reach if we
consider that in numerical terms India has the second largest tractor and
two-wheel vehicle, and the fifth largest commercial vehicle, manufacturing base in the world, and also has the fourth largest passenger car
market in Asia.
But is this all merely because India has low labour costs? It cannot be
denied that Indian labour costs per hour are low, but the net impact on the
bottom line after discounting for lower productivity is contestable. Even if
productivity levels improve, this labour cost advantage is not structurally
sustainable in the long run, especially when compared with countries such
as China. Where India scores is in its strong base of intellectual capital,
which allows us to deal cost-effectively where the technology intensity is
relatively high, even if volumes are relatively low. The quality of engi-
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neers and managers available in India in large numbers and with the right
age profile is what determines Indias competitiveness, and what should
continue to determine it in future. A T Kearneys 2004 Offshore Location
Attractiveness Index gave India the top position by a comfortable margin
because of its strong mix of low costs and rich human resources. A recent
KPMG report also suggested that, despite infrastructure issues, India is in
an advantageous position for precisely the same reasons.
Let me give you our own example to illustrate the confidence we can
have in our intellectual capital. In the late 1980s when we went for a highly
automated press line to replace hammer technology, we also decided to
replace the blue-collar workforce with college graduates, most of whom
were fresh from college. Our rationale for this was that absorption of the
technology involved a certain level of intellectual maturity and even a
different cultural set-up. Over the years, while the workforce size has gone
up, its mix has moved substantially in favour of white-collar workers.
Today we employ more than 1,200 engineers, and yet our employee cost as
a percentage of the top line has actually gone down.
It is of course one thing to know a fact for oneself and quite another
thing for someone else to buy the argument. The Indian engineering
industry here must give credit to the domestic IT industry for showing the
world that India has an edge in terms of intellectual capital, and for establishing its credibility in terms of quality of products, service and delivery.
The Indian engineering industry might not yet have found its rightful
place in the global business world, but it is finding its feet and doing so
with a confidence reflected in the investments it is making to enhance
capacities, productivity and technology. To talk about our own forging
industry, it might already be deemed a sunset industry in the Western
world, but for us this market, which could be as much as US $15 billion
depending upon outsourcing levels, presents a growth opportunity.
Let me come back now to the micro or firm level. In my view if we have
been able to achieve something, the explanation for that is quite simple. I
believe that it ensues from three basic, sacrosanct management principles:
vision, focus and action, though our interpretation of these terms might be
a little different from the conventional one. Let me first therefore expand
on each of the three, to make it simpler to relate them to key facets of our
business, both historical and future.
Vision
To us vision means a dream, a concept that might at the first be met with
scepticism. But I feel very strongly that if we have achieved something, it
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was because we first dreamt really big. At the same time, vision cannot be
a pipe dream. Ambitious and yet practical visionary insights can arise only
out of the knowledge and rational analysis of the way industry is likely to
evolve. Vision therefore is not just a one-time target-setting exercise, but
is about the place we must carve for ourselves as the industry evolves. In
other words, vision must also be about reinventing ourselves, our own
future. (As Alan Kay said, The best way to predict the future is to invent
it.) This reinvention is required no matter how small or large we are,
because external changes are too dynamic, too powerful and overwhelming to control. Rather than turn the tide, we must learn to swim with
it. To summarize, vision means dreaming big and constantly inventing
newer business models for ourselves.
Focus
Business is all about the judicious allocation of limited resources, such as
managerial and financial. Focus is therefore important so that we do not
spread these resources too thinly, but it does not necessarily imply that we
should be narrow in everything we do. All our resources must be concentrated on the core business and its fundamental drivers. The business
drivers might be outside our organization, in terms of what value we must
deliver, or they might be inside our organization, in terms of how we must
deliver that value. This is also the essence of business strategy.
Action
If there is a difference between developed economies and LCCs, it is here,
since LCCs have much ground to catch up, and hence need to be nearfanatical in implementing their business plans. Ambitious dreams have no
meaning unless we act upon them with equal aggression. Let me illustrate
this with an example. Because of the tooling and set-up costs involved,
there is a certain minimum economic quantity at which we can manufacture anything. But when a prospective US buyer visited to evaluate our
manufacturing capability, we produced his product physically in front of
him and presented him with a sample for testing purposes. Needless to
say, we went on to bag a major order. We believe that the risk of (more
comfortable) inaction is higher in most cases than the risk of erroneous
action. Proactive management is all about astute vision and strategy,
which is followed up by agile action.
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Let me now deal with the key facets and developments of our business
to illustrate the above point. There are three fundamental value drivers:
technology, scale and growth, and competitiveness. As I expand upon
these, it will be clearer that these have also been cornerstones of our
historical development. You might wonder why customer orientation does
not find a place here, but the fact is that business is all about delivering
value to the customer, and so value drivers have a meaning only in the
context of customers.
TECHNOLOGY
I would like to elaborate on this issue at some length since I feel strongly
about it, and also because it has a bearing on other aspects that I shall discuss.
Our company was established in the 1960s. Those were the days of the
licence and permits era, in which Indian industry was shackled. Though
policies favoured self-sufficient indigenous industry and there was an
urgent need for it, it took us four years to get an industrial licence to set up
forging facilities, so production could only start in the mid-1960s. There
was also no technology base available in India. We had to collaborate to
obtain it, and rely almost entirely on the inputs of our collaborator.
Slowly and steadily we established ourselves in a leadership position in
India by the mid-1980s, yet we were not able to make much mark in the
global market, and especially the developed world, despite our almost
decade-long concerted efforts. We slowly realized that what we needed
was a completely different production technology platform for this
purpose, one that ensured a far more reliable process and consistent output.
In the late 1980s we therefore invested in state-of-the-art automated
press lines. The technology was so advanced that there were then very few
people in the world, and no one internally, who understood it fully. We had
to struggle extremely hard to make sure that what was being labelled by
our detractors as a white elephant danced to our tune, but dance it did.
Our prospective customers soon started realizing what we could achieve,
and our capability to supply to them technologically complex products in
a highly cost-effective way. Such proactive investments in state-of-the-art
technologies and facilities have indeed been our driving force. Today
another forging facility, equally technologically modern, has come up for
passenger car parts.
Machining is another example. Even today, most forging suppliers do
not have machining capabilities of their own. We recognized that forging
by itself would be commoditized in the long run, and decided to set up our
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own machining facilities way back in the early 1970s, for down-the-line
value addition. Presently our machining generates almost as much value
as forging. Looking at the demand from more and more customers to
outsource the production of fully finished products that can go directly on
their assembly lines, we have just set up another state-of-the-art facility
for machining, which is ahead of the times in terms of ensuring highly
enhanced product quality and delivering it in very low cycle times.
Another key technology focus is engineering function. The forging
industry has come a long way from the days of toolmakers, who were
essentially specialist craftspeople, to computer-aided design, engineering
and manufacturing (CAD/CAE/CAM), where a part drawing can be translated into a tooling design, which can be directly used to manufacture a
die, and which in turn can produce a physical part as per the original
drawing. In this area we have focused on ensuring that our speed to market
is the fastest by optimizing this entire cycle.
In the ultimate analysis, then, the technological shift is all about
redefining forging from an ancient art to a modern science. The
knowledge earlier resided in those who were also required to execute it:
that is, those who did the work had the knowledge. Today that execution
has been deskilled, as the entire accumulated knowledge has been proceduralized and built into the machines and processes. This is central to
ensuring a reliable and consistent output. However, not anyone can simply
buy equipment and start producing as efficiently as anyone else. There are
many touchpoints involved, and that makes the task of technology
management as intricate as the underlying technology.
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In September 2005, we acquired Imatra Kilsta AB, Sweden, along with its
wholly owned subsidiary, Scottish Stampings, Scotland (Imatra Forging
Group). Imatra Forging Group is the largest manufacturer of front axle
beams and the second largest crankshaft producer in Europe. This acquisition completes our global dual-shore capability. We can now produce all
our core products crankshafts, beams, knuckles and pistons in a
minimum of two locations worldwide, and provide design and engineering,
and technology front-end support, close to customers for these products.
More recently in March 2006, we have established a Joint Venture (JV)
in China with FAW Corporation, the largest automotive group in China.
With this JV, Bharat Forge is the largest auto forging company in China.
FAW Bharat Forge will progressively position itself as the competitive
cost producer of highly engineered forgings for the international market.
All these acquisitions are aligned to the core of our strategy: to enhance
our competitive advantage by giving complete service and better value to
our global customers, and to continuously strengthen our share of
business with them. In all our acquisitions we have focused on leveraging
the intrinsic strengths of those businesses to significantly improve their
performance. We are happy to note that the same organization and local
management have now been able to grow those businesses, and the group
as a whole has also benefited.
COMPETITIVENESS
There are number of strategic and operational issues involved in maintaining
competitiveness, where to maintain it means to continuously improve upon
it. The strategic issue is partly related to the cyclical demand patterns of the
industry. Because of the high capital costs involved, a recession is enough to
drive a company to bankruptcy. Strategically we have reduced the risk to our
business by broadening our customer base. We have also constantly pruned
and focused our portfolio on technologically more complex products. On the
operational front inculcating excellence is critical, but then the auto industry
is a key propagator of its theory and practice. So rather than spending much
time here, I would just like to touch on what we have been able to achieve.
Over the last four years, our employee productivity has gone up 2.5 times,
our cash-to-cash cycle has been cut by one-third through prudent inventory
management, while the sales to net fixed assets ratio has almost doubled.
The future poses more challenges, and therefore it also presents greater
opportunities. In the next two years, we want to double our top line to
reach the US $1 billion mark. That is our ambitious dream. But it is not a
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INNOVATION
So far parts suppliers have focused on innovation in terms of production
costs and operational excellence, but gone are the days when auto parts
suppliers would merely produce components to the customers drawings.
The domain knowledge related to the parts rests with the parts supplier, and
therefore the supplier is in the best position to innovate and add value. This
might be from design, which actually controls a significant proportion of
final product costs, to quality aspects. The need for proactive codevelopment is acknowledged today by most OEMs, and is the key to
compressing speed to market. Our group has undertaken a number of
projects where the knowledge gained by us over the years in the areas of
metallurgy, forging and machining can be applied in a systematic fashion,
thus making us a true development partner of our key global customers.
SYNERGY
With our global manufacturing network we not only have global capacity,
we have added intellectual capital and a valuable set of best global practices.
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Just benchmarking within the group and ensuring that the best practices are
shared and assimilated by all the units would help further improve value of
each of the entities. There are other synergistic benefits that follow, and
there are ways to optimize at the system level rather than locally. For
example we can provide dual shoring capability to customers global operations. We are already pooling our R&D and engineering capabilities.
Management of intellectual capital in a cross-cultural setting is a
different challenge, and not an easy task, but we are working at it through
structured and unstructured integration measures.
I hope I have been able to offer to the reader some insights for mastering
automotive challenges. As a final note, in todays competitive world we
cannot ever be complacent. Success is not a destination to be arrived at. It
is at best a milestone on the trajectory that we chart for ourselves, where
we are not allowed to sit and rest!
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Conclusion
Ralf Kalmbach, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
idle capacities;
new competitors hailing from new automotive markets, such as
China or India;
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which auto makers founded their business systems are changing simultaneously. Hence, the traditional rules no longer apply.
New markets are emerging markets in which local automotive industries develop rapidly, producing new players (such as Bharat Forge) that
instantly take on a prominent global role. These companies appear to
know the new success factors and rules very well, frequently even better
than traditional manufacturers. They are encroaching upon the very existence of the former market leaders.
Phases of massive change shake industry sectors to their very core, and
the automotive industry will share this fate. Not all companies will be able
to address the opportunities but also the risks of such developments
successfully, or even anticipate them. Only a few are in a position to align
themselves with novel conditions that they can take advantage of for their
own success.
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market;
globalization;
sales;
value creation;
technology.
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Conventional forecasting models that are based primarily on the interpretation of sociodemographic information simply do not work any more.
Income and social status do not lead customers to certain brands,
segments or products in a world full of niche vehicles and lifestyle
concepts. As a result, the risks for auto makers have increased substantially. After all, huge investments are required to develop and launch new
vehicles. This trend is further accelerated by the decline in the number of
vehicles produced per type a tribute to strong product programme differentiation combined with ever shorter product lifecycles.
In Europe and the United States, growth is no longer restricted to the
midsize and premium segments a scenario that has never applied to
emerging markets anyway. Instead, a significant entry-level segment is
developing. It encompasses vehicles that cost less than 10,000 in Europe
and even less in markets such as China or India. In these countries, the
entry-level price for individual mobility is around 3,000 for a new car.
These market segments are growing disproportionately on the world
market, and are forcing the automotive industry to develop suitable
market, technology and value creation strategies. New competitors that
focus on the entry-level portfolio are emerging, and their low-wage
origins afford them crucial advantages in terms of competitive pricing.
Car makers must rethink and realign their businesses.
In this environment, accessing customers via sales is increasingly
becoming a key success factor. The frequently stiff and multi-level sales
systems inherent in a largely unchanged manufacturerdealer relationship do not accommodate this development, but do offer huge optimization potential. Substantial areas for improvement exist along the
entire sales-related value chain, which can increase profits and improve
customer loyalty.
The pressure to innovate in the automotive industry continues to
increase dramatically, and compels companies to completely realign their
development processes and structures to make the complexity and
dynamics of product creation manageable. Modular and platform
strategies as well as standardization, frequently encompassing several
auto makers, are adequate solutions. However, they require deep strategic,
process-related and cultural changes. Auto makers are not only challenged
by changing customer behaviour patterns, but also by a substantial shift in
the importance of market segments.
The key approaches for realignment in this context are explained in
more detail in the following.
Conclusion
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their resources far more efficiently. And if they also rigorously streamline
their networks, they will be in a position to optimize sales through professional improvement and standardization.
Conclusion
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markets began in the early 20th century, when distribution companies were
established in numerous countries. In subsequent years, production sites
were built in Europe and Asia to service the frequently remote sales markets.
The globalization of the automotive industry had thus begun. The drivers
were the same then as they are now:
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the United States. Like their Japanese role models, they have consistently
upgraded and have already arrived in the lower mid-section of the market
in terms of brand awareness and price.
Once again, a gap is beginning to open up at the lower end of the
market, inviting burgeoning Chinese auto makers to move forward.
They will also implement these successful strategies. The outcome is
clear, and it will further worsen the crisis for local US manufacturers.
Dj vu!
Japanese and Korean brands have also launched an aggressive attack on
Europe. No segment is spared: even in the premium segment, these manufacturers have defined products and strategies that promise success. While
the development follows the proven pattern, it is happening more consistently and more quickly than it did in the United States. A gap is already
beginning to emerge at the entry level of the market, which once again can
be seen as an open invitation.
The first batch of Chinese vehicles has already been launched into
Europe. It is only a question of a few years until Chinese auto makers
thanks to the technology procured from their joint venture partners and
global suppliers will be in a position to offer high-quality products and
to develop the market from the bottom up. Following the same pattern as
in the United States, established European OEMs will find themselves
under pressure.
Strategic responses comprising more and more complex technology
will no longer do the job, as happened in the early 1990s when Japanese
market penetration began to increasingly encroach upon Europe.
Customer preferences in volume segments have changed because of environmental conditions. The competition must now be dealt with in all
segments of cost and quality, otherwise substantial danger looms.
Even today, Asian auto makers have become permanent players in the
European market. Unlike their US counterparts, European manufacturers
were, however, able to slow down their success. The reasons can be
attributed to the strengths of the Europeans in this competition:
Conclusion
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Conclusion
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third cars and high adoption rates cause the vehicle population to grow
and to age. As a result, the number of cars that are more than 10 years
old is growing at a rate of 3 per cent per year in Germany. The number
of seven to nine-year-old cars is growing at 4 per cent in France and a
hefty 10 per cent in Spain.
Development of customer needs: customers demands in terms of
service quality, reliability and customer relations are high and rising.
Experiences customers have in other industries will intensify this
development.
Changes in consumer behaviour patterns: the growing number of cars
used for business, such as company cars and long-term rentals, in
conjunction with a growing and professional portfolio of pre-owned
vehicles available for purchase, are changing customer behaviour
patterns.
New regulations: while block exemption impacts primarily the spare
parts market, Eurodesign affects components with design patents.
Specialized prescriber groups: insurance companies and associations
such as Thatcham as well as rating agencies such as Euro-NCAP and
JD Power are gaining influence.
Europeanization: in the aftermath of EU expansion, one of the challenges companies face is how to move into other countries while
keeping distribution costs as low as possible and avoiding grey markets.
Sales channel consolidation: in Great Britain and France in particular,
large dealer chains control huge swathes of the market. Consolidated
IAM wholesalers, repair shops organized in corporate groups or
networks, and large fleet operators are also positioned advantageously.
New market players: for a while, retail chains were expected to enter
the automotive industry. However, they failed because of the considerable market entry barriers. Banks and financial institutions are real
newcomers, as are leasing companies and fleet operators, which are
now trying to gain a foothold in this attractive market.
Conclusion
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Improved service
Through their experiences in other areas of life, such as tourism, the retail
trade, telecommunications and financial services, consumers have
become accustomed to higher standards of service. In a world full of very
similar products, service has become an important, frequently crucial
means of differentiation.
The key objective is to increase customer satisfaction levels and consequently create loyal customers. Despite running a range of programmes,
the automotive industry lags noticeably behind other sectors, even though
there is no lack of insight into what to do and how to do it. What is missing
is professional management of service processes through the
OEMdealercustomer interface. At this time, too many individually
optimized activities inhibit a thoroughly positive and consistently reproducible customer experience. Mushrooming fast-fit chains are using this
deficit to their advantage. Their success is down to excellent service
quality, standardized processes, clear rules, flexibility in what they do and
when they do it, and good value for money.
Customer satisfaction can frequently be achieved at little cost, but it
does require consistent management.
Conclusion
359
360
brands while also operating efficient repair shops and handling professional financial services.
Their regional presence puts them in a position to develop and
maintain close customer relationships. To the OEMs, dealer groups have
a significance that elevates them to the role of genuine partners. They
are in a position to achieve a winwin situation with manufacturers by
personalizing all elements of the sales process. At the same time, these
relationships are multilateral. In particular, multi-brands involving
several OEMs that are in fierce competition with each other must be
properly managed. Nonetheless, it is increasingly only the large retail
chains that are in a position to meet the multitude of challenges that
automotive sales present. The OEMs recent consolidation of their
distribution networks gives this development an extra push. Auto
makers are acquiring and developing mature partners. A paradigm shift
is on the horizon.
Taking all relevant aspects into account, OEMs are obviously the only
players that can cover the entire value chain with an integrated approach.
They encompass everything from new car sales and buying back and
reselling used cars to repair and maintenance, spare parts wholesale and
financial services. They also have the closest contact with the final
customers. Hence, they really do hold all of the trump cards. Nevertheless,
the success of companies focusing on individual value chain elements
clearly shows that existing structures do not have to stay that way forever.
Whether these firms will be able to safeguard their success in the long run
depends largely on the development of business models that are even
more effectively integrated.
A sales organization that is suitably adapted across all levels will have
to be a central element. Many sales and marketing processes may be on
a European level, such as pricing for new and used cars as well as
marketing. Better control of sales activities can only be achieved with
increased integration, which involves reducing the number of
autonomous national sales companies or reinforcing alliances and group
companies. Overall, sales structures must be more streamlined and
traditional national organizations within the new EU of 25 nations must
be integrated into these structures to optimize distribution costs. In this
context, leaner structures may also involve the regional consolidation of
business divisions. Many departments, from call centres to payroll, are
ideally suited for outsourcing.
Conclusion
361
362
Conclusion
363
while. This may well be the only way for sites in high-wage countries to
stay in business.
Business model
Increased cooperation and the conscious shaping of cooperation models
between all of the stakeholders in the value chain present significant areas
of untapped potential. Closer networking and improved collaboration
between all stakeholders represent key levers for optimizing the automotive value chain. Contrary to the demands of the business situation,
relations between OEMs and suppliers have deteriorated markedly in
recent years. Considering how interdependent the value chain partners
are, the amount of mistrust and pressure they feed into their relationships
is anything but helpful. The optimized division of value creation and the
realignment of physical service delivery hinge on close cooperation with
the aim of taking full advantage of the potential available. The industrys
approach to collaboration will have to change radically. Intensive cooperation is a must; however, a few important rules must be observed as well.
These are:
364
Conclusion
365
It is important to note that such vehicles do not contain outdated technology despite their moderate price tags. Frequently the safety,
performance, consumption and variability standards they have to meet
can only be satisfied with enormous technological effort, even though a
much more level-headed approach is taken to the subject of new technologies today. That is why the R&D machinery is still running at full
speed. The goal is to adapt vehicles to the constantly and quickly changing
economic, environmental and legal framework while never losing sight of
the issue of customer acceptance.
Auto makers are therefore compelled to participate in the race to find
the best solutions for fuel consumption, weight, safety, comfort,
performance, emissions, costs and alternative drive concepts. This
involves a constantly high level of investment and effort, and those who
back down or give up will lose out. However, being a part of it does not
mean doing everything yourself. Only intelligently designed partnerships
and networks can make this complex world manageable and affordable.
366
Conclusion
367
been sensitized to high energy prices, and saw that they represent the key
to improved market positioning and increased success.
The race to come up with better solutions is on. Hybrid engines,
BlueTec, fuel cells, hydrogen there are many ways to attain substantial
improvements in consumption and emissions levels. The task now is to
develop them technologically. The automotive industry has pulled out all
the stops, and is working toward making the consequences of the automobile more socially acceptable and more environmentally friendly. This
is a milestone it will certainly reach.
Technology as an opportunity
An awareness and understanding of technology must extend far beyond
research and development. Technology is an essential factor in the positioning of a brand, as it increasingly determines product and brand
strategies, in addition to the focused technology strategies described above.
The repositioning of the Lexus in Europe, where it assumed the role of
innovator in hybrid technology combined with localized design and
customized sales and marketing initiatives, is an example that clearly
shows the opportunities this approach can yield. Mercedes-Benz is yet
another example. From its very beginnings, the brand has been a pioneer
in the segment of fast-running diesel engines. Consequently, MercedesBenz is strongly committed to pushing the diesel drive concept in the
United States. Mercedes BlueTec technology, with its superior
consumption and emissions performance, is at the heart of this initiative.
It provides the technological basis to even undercut the extreme limits in
place in some US states, which will help diesel cars gain acceptance. As a
brand, Mercedes will reap the benefits.
As both of these examples demonstrate, the concerted effort of all
departments across the entire company is required to achieve such goals.
How these processes are set up frequently determines whether the technology and the company will be successful. Technology management is
synonymous with brand management and value management. It is based
on a thorough understanding of customers and their expectations. Only
when technology is a priority issue for top management and an integral
component to be embedded in departmental strategies can all of this
come together.
368
Index
Index
NB: page numbers in italic indicate figures
For directives and regulations see European Union (EU) and legislation
11517, 126
acronyms
ABS: antilock braking system
EBIT: earnings before interest and tax
ESP: electronic stability program
NAFTA: North American Free Trade Area
NOx: nitrogen oxides
OEM: original equipment manufacturer
R&D: research and development
SCR: selective catalytic reduction
SUV: sport utility vehicle
ADAC AutoMarxX ratings 42
AdBlue 15, 125, 328 see also BLUETEC
and clean diesel
Aisin AW 96
Aisin Seiki 96
ALD 195
Alfa Romeo 163
Allianz Danner test 20203
AMDEC 200
antilock braking system (ABS) 15, 106,
185, 220, 226, 235, 270
Asia(n) 43, 48, 50, 83, 93, 219, 234, 238,
30607, 336, 351, 35253, 362
crisis (1998) 61
cultures and long-term relationships 65
OEMs 49, 51, 66
Audi 58, 10910, 112, 125, 237
100 TDI 237
A8 112
Electronics Venture 276
and hybrid engine technology 125
Q7 SUV 125
Quattro 110
Auto Distribution 20102
automotive credit 195
automotive industry
as role model 29192
pioneers of 4748, 48
automotive industry, shifting balance of
power in 3137
and car makers/component
suppliers 3436, 35, 36
and customer segments 3334
and new suppliers 32, 32, 33
and social/environmental issues 3637,
37
automotive industry and global
economy 324 see also Germany
global automotive industry 34
automotive industry and globalization
challenge 4648, 48, 49, 4968
Japan and Korea: conquest of North
America and Europe 4854
European markets 5052, 52
and new OEMS from China, India and
Eastern Europe 5254
North America 4950, 50
new emerging markets, survival and
success in see emerging markets
automotive industry: winners and losers 38,
38, 3945
Chinese car industry 3840, 40
component suppliers and success
factors 4445, 45
top performers and low performers 40,
41, 4244
low performers, problems of 4344
top performers and success factors 42
automotive markets, global shifts in 2631,
27, 28, 29, 30, 31
Automotive Open Systems Architecture
(AUTOSAR) 22630, 239, 280,
281, 281
innovative products for new market
segments 228
quality, common goal of 22728
Index
shared market interests 22830
Automotive Research, Institute for (IFA)
Automotive Research Center (FAW) 65, 254
automotive semiconductor applications 288
Benz & CieAG 315
Berger, R 42, 44
Bharat Forge 64, 68, 33444
and acquisitions 34142
and action 33839
background to 33437
and competitiveness 34243
and focus 338
and full service provider capability 343
and innovation 343
scale and growth of 34042
and synergy 34344
and technology 33942
vision of 33738
biofuel 19, 2223
and agricultural sectors 22
biodiesel 23
bioethanol 22
and energy crops 2223
and raw materials market 23
BLUETEC and clean diesel 15, 125, 31433
and commercial vehicle
applications 32730, 328, 330
and E320 BLUETEC: first serialproduction passenger car 32427,
324, 325, 326
and emission regulations: passenger
cars 31719, 317, 318
and emission regulations: trucks 319,
320
history of 31416, 316
and modular technology for passenger cars
32023, 322, 323
and outlook and future for diesel 330
and roadmap for innovative powertrain
technologies 33133, 332, 333
and strategy for worlds cleanest
diesel 32023
BMW 8, 58, 74, 81, 100, 109, 11112, 125,
140, 147, 159, 165, 208, 261, 274, 279
Bank 20708
and Brilliance 53
Car IT 276
customer satisfaction with 42
and hybrid engine technology 125
Mini 33
sales revenues and EBIT 42
X3 81
World (delivery centre) 159
Bosch 66, 116, 205, 21940, 261, 274
Competence Centre for Hybrid
Systems 230
369
370
Index
Index
customers, expectations and behaviour
of 14647, 148
Czech Republic/Kolin 64, 96, 99100
Daewoo and Chevrolet brand 66
Daewoo and Kia 53
DaimlerChrysler 8, 34, 43, 52, 64, 70, 107,
115, 120, 125, 159, 261, 32526, 325,
326, 332
Bank 20708
buses 329
and development of hybrid engine with
GM 10001
E320 125
and offshoring R&D 64
DaimlerChrysler AG 22021, 237
dealer groups 16162, 19699, 197, 198,
210, 35960
Delphi 66, 68, 29394
and Chapter 11 protection 293
demo car segment 177, 177
demographic trends 244
Denso 96
diesel 1415, 22829 see also BLUETEC
and clean diesel
clean 15, 31433
globalization of 229
and hybrid vehicles 21
high pressure technology 119
injection systems 95
particulate filters 14, 119
diesel cars and market share 12526
Direct Line 204
digital tachographs 11
Dodge Durango 101
Dresdner Bank 208
earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) 42,
295
Eastern Europe 910, 26, 32, 48, 55,
8385, 162, 170, 189, 219, 234,
30607, 308, 336, 362
economic cycles 16
economy cars, demand for 21920
electronic and software development
cycles 141
electronic control units (ECUs) 274
electronic continuous damping control
(CDC) 267
electronic stability program (ESP) 15, 106,
108, 22022, 226, 236
development of 22021
learning from example of 222
and technological challenges 22122
electronics 15, 72, 8081, 113, 136, 237
electronics and change in automotive
industry 27089
371
372
Index
Index
challenges for 1213
and clean diesel 15
and financial/car-related services 17
and outsourcing/partnerships 16
and technology leadership 12, 15
Germany 417, 2024, 79, 84, 118, 180,
181, 191, 204, 211, 213, 229, 235,
310, 318, 356 see also German
automotive industry; German market
and German supply industry
ADAC (automobile association) 113, 254
as business location 46
and banks 151, 208
business model 6
GDV insurance association 151
and German Civil Code (HGB) 160
KBS Federal Motor Vehicle Office 72
and new market opportunities 6
and Pforzheim 2004 wage agreement 5
and production sites 9
Weller Group 16162
global business location strategy 910
global market(s) 15, 47 see also automotive
markets, global shifts in
and biofuels 22
for premium products 15
global sourcing 64
globalization 67, 4748, 64, 35055, 290,
292, 293 see also see automotive
industry and globalization challenge
and Asian automotive industry 35254
and changing times 47
and competition and key success
factors 35455
driven adaptation processes 345
and global expansion 35152
Goldman Sachs 114
green engine technologies 123
Hella Behr Plastic Omnium (HBPO) 9394,
94, 205
Honda 97, 100, 114, 124
hybrid engine technology 119, 123,
12425, 230, 26162, 366
Hyundai 33, 50, 52, 63, 64, 66, 67, 83, 351
hub models 158
hubs 16970
IAM repairers/wholesalers: technology
challenge 199202
repair level: consolidation towards
affiliated networks 199200, 200
wholesale level: consolidation towards
large buying groups 20102, 201
iDrive system 42, 11112
India(n) 6, 78, 16, 17, 26, 32, 33, 39, 54,
58, 6364, 66, 73, 81, 82, 84, 213,
373
374
Index
Index
North America 54, 93, 101, 225, 238, 293,
342, 351
North American Free Trade Area
(NAFTA) 9
Offshore Local Attractiveness Index (A K
Kearney, 2004) 337
offshoring 55, 84
Opel 67, 252, 25355, 256, 258, 259, 260,
26366, 267, 268
operational design, forms of 128, 13637,
137, 13840
component-oriented development organizations drive complexity 137
functional teams reduce
complexity 13738
function-oriented development
organizations guarantee customer
focus 138, 139, 140
outsourcing 12, 16, 75, 210, 310
particulate matter (PM) 14, 37, 119, 229,
317, 31819
partnership(s) 21940
and AUTOSAR see Automotive Open
Systems Architecture (AUTOSAR)
and cost-effective structures and processes
23033
and balancing innovation and cost leadership 23132
and importance of geographical
proximity 231
and mix of high-cost and low-cost
countries 23233
and process optimization 232
and ESP 22022 see also electronic
stability program (ESP)
and global change 23840
and joint responses to future
challenges 23940
and trust 240
independence and responsibility
in 22337
competence and broad footing support
independence 22425
inequality of power 224
and international presence 23336
and Bosch 23334, 236
and global responses to local
requirements 235
and shifting growth regions 23435
and long-term perspective 23637
and need for stamina/perseverance 237
and technological leadership, common
goal of 22526
suppliers and responsibilities 226
375
256
R&D
376
Index
Index
377
378
Index
cost of 17
cross-over models 148
flex fuel 22
hybrid 21
low-pollutant 11
minivans 27, 105
MPVs 44, 105
niche 16, 8182, 265
pick-ups 27, 49
premium 17
roadsters 265
sport utility (SUV) 15, 16, 27, 34, 44,
49, 105, 148, 252, 260, 265
supermini 16
vans 49, 105
Verheugen, G 18
Volkswagen 14, 43, 44, 51, 52, 64, 81, 83,
110, 125, 14748, 151, 165, 234, 235,
292, 293
Beetle 61
Fox 30, 62
Golf/IV/V/City 61, 62, 110111, 148
Jetta 62
Phaeton 34, 110, 147
Polo 62
Volkswagen Financial Services 195, 207,
207, 208
Volvo 109
wages, hourly 5556, 56
Weber, T 120
Western Europe 26, 84, 159
Womach, J P; Jones, D T, and Ross, D 13,
347
World Trade Organization (WTO) 63
ZVEI: German electrical engineering
and electronics industry
association 279