Uncertainties and Error
Uncertainties and Error
Uncertainties and Error
http://www.rit.edu/~uphysics/uncertainties/Uncertaintiespart2.html
Vern Lindberg, Copyright July 1, 2000
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For some devices the ILE is given as a tolerance or a percentage. Resistors may be specified as
having a tolerance of 5%, meaning that the ILE is 5% of the resistor's value.
Problem: For each of the following scales (all in centimeters) determine the
least count, the ILE, and read the length of the gray rod. Answer
ILE (cm)
Length (cm)
(a)
0.2
9.6
(b)
0.5
0.1
8.5
(c)
0.2
0.05
11.90
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Another good example is determining the focal length of a lens by measuring the distance from
the lens to the screen. The ILE may be 0.1 cm, however the depth of field may be such that the
image remains in focus while we move the screen by 1.6 cm. In this case the estimated
uncertainty would be half the range or 0.8 cm.
Problem: I measure your height while you are standing by using a tape
measure with ILE of 0.5 mm. Estimate the uncertainty. Include the effects of
not knowing whether you are "standing straight" or slouching. Solution.
Average Example 1
Problem Find the average, and average deviation for the following data on the length of a pen, L.
We have 5 measurements, (12.2, 12.5, 11.9,12.3, 12.2) cm.
Length (cm)
12.2
0.02
0.0004
12.5
0.28
0.0784
11.9
0.32
0.1024
12.3
0.08
0.0064
12.2
0.02
0.0004
Sum 0.72
Sum 0.1880
Sum
61.1
Average 0.14
To get the average sum the values and divide by the number of measurements.
To get the average deviation,
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1. Find the deviations, the absolute values of the quantity (value minus the average), |L - Lave|
2. Sum the absolute deviations,
3. Get the average absolute deviation by dividing by the number of measurements
To get the standard deviation
1. Find the deviations and square them
2. Sum the squares
3. Divide by (N-1), the number of measurements minus 1 (here it is 4)
4. Take the square root.
The pen has a length of (12.22 + 0.14) cm or (12.2 + 0.1) cm [using average deviations] or
(12.22 + 0.22) cm or (12.2 + 0.2) cm [using standard deviations].
Average Example 2
Problem: Find the average and the average deviation of the following measurements of a mass.
(4.32, 4.35, 4.31, 4.36, 4.37, 4.34) grams.
Mass (grams)
4.32
0.0217
0.000471
4.35
0.0083
0.000069
4.31
0.0317
0.001005
4.36
0.0183
0.000335
4.37
0.0283
0.000801
4.34
0.0017
0.000003
Sum 26.05
0.1100
0.002684
Average
4.3417
Average 0.022
The same rules as Example 1 are applied. This time there are N = 6 measurements, so for the
standard deviation we divide by (N-1) = 5.
The mass is (4.342 + 0.022) g or (4.34 + 0.02) g [using average deviations] or
(4.342 + 0.023) g or (4.34 + 0.02) g [using standard deviations].
(c) Average Deviation: Estimated Uncertainty by Repeated Measurements
The statistical method for finding a value with its uncertainty is to repeat the measurement
several times, find the average, and find either the average deviation or the standard
deviation.
Suppose we repeat a measurement several times and record the different values. We can then
find the average value, here denoted by a symbol between angle brackets, <t>, and use it as our
best estimate of the reading. How can we determine the uncertainty? Let us use the following
data as an example. Column 1 shows a time in seconds.
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(t - <t>),
sec
|t - <t>|, sec
7.4
-0.2
0.2
0.04
8.1
0.5
0.5
0.25
7.9
0.3
0.3
0.09
7.0
-0.6
0.6
0.36
<t> = 7.6
<t-<t>>=
0.0
<|t-<t>|>=
0.4
= 0.247
Std. dev = 0.50
A simple average of the times is the sum of all values (7.4+8.1+7.9+7.0) divided by the number
of readings (4), which is 7.6 sec. We will use angular brackets around a symbol to indicate
average; an alternate notation uses a bar is placed over the symbol.
Column 2 of Table 1 shows the deviation of each time from the average, (t-<t>). A simple
average of these is zero, and does not give any new information.
To get a non-zero estimate of deviation we take the average of the absolute values of the
deviations, as shown in Column 3 of Table 1. We will call this the average deviation, t.
Column 4 has the squares of the deviations from Column 2, making the answers all positive.
The sum of the squares is divided by 3, (one less than the number of readings), and the square
root is taken to produce the sample standard deviation. An explanation of why we divide by
(N-1) rather than N is found in any statistics text. The sample standard deviation is slightly
different than the average deviation, but either one gives a measure of the variation in the data.
If you use a spreadsheet such as Excel there are built-in functions that help you to find these
quantities. These are the Excel functions.
=SUM(A2:A5)
=COUNT(A2:A5)
=AVERAGE(A2:A5) Find the average of the numbers in the range of cells A2 to A5.
=AVEDEV(A2:A5)
=STDEV(A2:A5)
For a second example, consider a measurement of length shown in Table 2. The average and
average deviation are shown at the bottom of the table.
Table 2. Example of finding an average length and an average deviation in length. The
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values in the table have an excess of significant figures. Results should be rounded as
explained in the text.Results can be reported as (15.5 0.1) m or (15.47 0.13) m. If you
use standard deviation the length is (15.5 0.2) m or (15.47 0.18) m.
Length, x, m
|x- <x>|, m
15.4
0.06667
0.004445
15.2
0.26667
0.071112
15.6
0.13333
0.017777
15.7
0.23333
0.054443
15.5
0.03333
0.001111
15.4
0.06667
0.004445
Average 15.46667 m
0.133333 m
We round the uncertainty to one or two significant figures (more on rounding in Section 7), and
round the average to the same number of digits relative to the decimal point. Thus the average
length with average deviation is either (15.47 0.13) m or (15.5 0.1) m. If we use standard
deviation we report the average length as (15.470.18) m or (15.50.2) m.
Follow your instructor's instructions on whether to use average or standard deviation in your
reports.
Problem Find the average, and average deviation for the following data on the length of a pen, L.
We have 5 measurements, (12.2, 12.5, 11.9,12.3, 12.2) cm. Solution
Problem: Find the average and the average deviation of the following measurements of a mass.
(4.32, 4.35, 4.31, 4.36, 4.37, 4.34) grams. Solution
3. Round off the answer so it has the same number of digits before or after the decimal point
as the answer.
4. Put the answer and its uncertainty in parentheses, then put the power of 10 and unit outside
the parentheses.
Problem: I make several measurements on the mass of an object. The balance has an ILE of
0.02 grams. The average mass is 12.14286 grams, the average deviation is 0.07313 grams.
What is the correct way to write the mass of the object including its uncertainty? What is the
mistake in each incorrect one? Answer
1. 12.14286 g
2. (12.14 0.02) g
3. 12.14286 g 0.07313
4. 12.143 0.073 g
5. (12.143 0.073) g
6. (12.14 0.07)
7. (12.1 0.1) g
8. 12.14 g 0.07 g
9. (12.14 0.07) g
Problem: I measure a length with a meter stick with a least count of 1 mm. I measure the
length 5 times with results (in mm) of 123, 123, 123, 123, 123. What is the average length
and the uncertainty in length? Answer
Average
Standard
Deviation
Standard Error
15.52 cm
1.33 cm
0.59 cm
25
15.46 cm
1.28 cm
0.26 cm
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625
15.49 cm
1.31 cm
0.05 cm
10000
15.49 cm
1.31 cm
0.013 cm
For this introductory course we will not worry about the standard error, but only use the
standard deviation, or estimates of the uncertainty.
Problem: You measure a time to have a value of (9.22 0.09) s. Your friend measures the time to
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be (9.385 0.002) s. The accepted value of the time is 9.37 s. Does your time agree with the
accepted? Does your friend's time agree with the accepted? Answer.
Problem: Are the following numbers equal within the expected range of values? Answer
(i) (3.42 0.04) m/s and 3.48 m/s?
(ii) (13.106 0.014) grams and 13.206 grams?
(iii) (2.95 0.03) x
m/s
or
z=x-y
Derivation: We will assume that the uncertainties are arranged so as to make z as far from its
true value as possible.
Average deviations z = |x| + |y| in both cases.
With more than two numbers added or subtracted we continue to add the uncertainties.
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Eq. 1a
Eq. 1b
Example: w = (4.52 0.02) cm, x = ( 2.0 0.2) cm, y = (3.0 0.6) cm. Find z = x + y - w and
its uncertainty.
z = x + y - w = 2.0 + 3.0 - 4.5 = 0.5 cm
z = x + y + w = 0.2 + 0.6 + 0.02 = 0.82
rounding to 0.8 cm
So z = (0.5 0.8) cm
Notice that we round the uncertainty to one significant figure and round the answer to match.
For multiplication by an exact number, multiply the uncertainty by the same exact number.
Example: The radius of a circle is x = (3.0 0.2) cm. Find the circumference and its
uncertainty.
C = 2 x = 18.850 cm
C = 2 x = 1.257 cm (The factors of 2 and are exact)
C = (18.8 1.3) cm
We round the uncertainty to two figures since it starts with a 1, and round the answer to match.
Example: x = (2.0 0.2) cm, y = (3.0 0.6) cm. Find z = x - 2y and its uncertainty.
z = x - 2y = 2.0 - 2(3.0) = -4.0 cm
z = x + 2 y = 0.2 + 1.2 = 1.4 cm
So z = (-4.0 1.4) cm.
The 0 after the decimal point in 4.0 is significant and must be written in the answer. The
uncertainty in this case starts with a 1 and is kept to two significant figures. (More on rounding
in Section 7.)
or
z = x/y
Derivation: We can derive the relation for multiplication easily. Take the largest values for x
and y, that is
z + z = (x + x)(y + y) = xy + x y + y x + x y
Usually x << x and y << y so that the last term is much smaller than the other terms and can
be neglected. Since z = xy,
z = y x + x y
which we write more compactly by forming the relative error, that is the ratio of z/z, namely
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The same rule holds for multiplication, division, or combinations, namely add all the relative
errors to get the relative error in the result.
Using simpler average errors
Eq. 2a
Eq.2b
Example: w = (4.52 0.02) cm, x = (2.0 0.2) cm. Find z = w x and its uncertainty.
z = w x = (4.52) (2.0) = 9.04 cm2
Using Eq. 2b we get
z = 0.905 cm2 and
So z = 0.1044 (9.04 cm2) = 0.944 which we round to 0.9 cm2, z z = (9.0 0.9) cm2.
= (9.0 0.9) cm2.
The uncertainty is rounded to one significant figure and the result is rounded to match. We write
9.0 cm2 rather than 9 cm2 since the 0 is significant.
Example: x = ( 2.0 0.2) cm, y = (3.0 0.6) sec Find z = x/y.
z = 2.0/3.0 = 0.6667 cm/s.
So z = 0.3 (0.6667 cm/sec) = 0.2 cm/sec
z = (0.7 0.2) cm/sec
Note that in this case we round off our answer to have no more decimal places than our uncertainty.
(2)
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Example: w = (4.52 0.02) cm, A = (2.0 0.2) cm2, y = (3.0 0.6) cm. Find z
z
wy 2
.
A
28.638 cm 2
2
A
2.0 cm
z
0.2 cm
0.6 cm
0.2 cm 2
0
.
5
0.49
28.638 cm 2 4.5 cm
3.0 cm
2.0 cm 2
0.40
2
y
y
3.0 cm
y 2 0.40 9.00 cm 2 3.6 cm 2
Example: Consider S = wcos () for w = (2.0 0.2) cm, = 53 2. Find S and its uncertainty.
Solution:
S = (2.0 cm)cos 53 = 1.204 cm
To get the largest possible value of S,
To make w larger, (w + w) = 2.2 cm, and smaller, ( - ) = 51.
The largest value of S, namely (S + S), is (S + S) = (2.2 cm) cos 51 = 1.385 cm.
The difference between these numbers is S = 1.385 - 1.204 = 0.181 cm which we round to 0.18
cm.
Then S = (1.20 0.18) cm.
We treat the dw = w as the error in w, and likewise for the other differentials, dz, dx, dy, etc.
The numerical values of the partial derivatives are evaluated by using the average values of w,
x, y, etc. The general results are
Using simpler average errors:
f
f
f
w
x
y ...
w
x
y
w 2
x 2
y
Eq. 4a.
y 2 ...
Eq. 4b
Example: Consider S = x cos (q) for x = (2.0 0.2) cm, q = (53 2) = (0.9250 0.0035)
rad. Find S and its uncertainty. Note: the uncertainty in angle must be in radians!
S = 2.0 cm cos 53 = 1.204 cm
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7. Significant Figures
The rules for propagation of errors hold true for cases when we are in the lab, but doing propagation
of errors is time consuming. The rules for significant figures allow a much quicker method to get
results that are approximately correct even when we have no uncertainty values.
A significant figure is any digit 1 to 9 and any zero which is not a place holder. Thus, in 1.350 there
are 4 significant figures since the zero is not needed to make sense of the number. In a number like
0.00320 there are 3 significant figures --the first three zeros are just place holders. However the
number 1350 is ambiguous. You cannot tell if there are 3 significant figures --the 0 is only used to
hold the units place --or if there are 4 significant figures and the zero in the units place was actually
measured to be zero.
How do we resolve ambiguities that arise with zeros when we need to use zero as a place holder as
well as a significant figure? Suppose we measure a length to three significant figures as 8000 cm.
Written this way we cannot tell if there are 1, 2, 3, or 4 significant figures. To make the number of
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significant figures apparent we use scientific notation, 8 x 103 cm (which has one significant figure),
or 8.00 x 103 cm (which has three significant figures), or whatever is correct under the
circumstances.
We start then with numbers each with their own number of significant figures and compute a new
quantity. How many significant figures should be in the final answer? In doing running
computations we maintain numbers to many figures, but we must report the answer only to the
proper number of significant figures.
In the case of addition and subtraction we can best explain with an example. Suppose one object is
measured to have a mass of 9.9 gm and a second object is measured on a different balance to have a
mass of 0.3163 gm. What is the total mass? We write the numbers with question marks at places
where we lack information. Thus 9.9???? gm and 0.3163? gm. Adding them with the decimal points
lined up we see
09.9????
00.3163?
10.2???? = 10.2 gm.
In the case of multiplication or division we can use the same idea of unknown digits. Thus the
product of 3.413? and 2.3? can be written in long hand as
3.413?
2.3?
?????
10239?
6826?
7.8????? = 7.8
The short rule for multiplication and division is that the answer will contain a number of significant
figures equal to the number of significant figures in the entering number having the least number of
significant figures. In the above example 2.3 had 2 significant figures while 3.413 had 4, so the
answer is given to 2 significant figures.
It is important to keep these concepts in mind as you use calculators with 8 or 10 digit displays if
you are to avoid mistakes in your answers and to avoid the wrath of physics instructors
everywhere. A good procedure to use is to use use all digits (significant or not) throughout
calculations, and only round off the answers to appropriate "sig fig."
Problem: How many significant figures are there in each of the following?
(i) 0.00042 (ii) 0.14700 (ii) 4.2 x 106 (iv) -154.090 x 10-27
Answer
Brief Definition
Absolute error
The actual error in a quantity, having the same units as the quantity. Thus if
c = (2.95 0.07) m/s, the absolute error is 0.07 m/s. See Relative Error.
Accuracy
Average
Average
Deviation
The average of the absolute value of the differences between each measurement
and the average. See Standard Deviation.
Confidence
Level
The fraction of measurements that can be expected to lie within a given range.
Thus if m = (15.34 0.18) g, at 67% confidence level, 67% of the measurements
lie within (15.34 - 0.18) g and (15.34 + 0.18) g. If we use 2 deviations (0.36
here) we have a 95% confidence level.
Deviation
Error
Estimated
Uncertainty
Gaussian
Distribution
Independent
Variables
Changing the value of one variable has no effect on any of the other variables.
Propagation of errors assumes that all variables are independent.
Instrument
Limit
of Error (ILE)
The smallest reading that an observer can make from an instrument. This is
generally smaller than the Least Count.
Least Count
The size of the smallest division on a scale. Typically the ILE equals the least
count or 1/2 or 1/5 of the least count.
Normal
Distribution
Precision
Propagation of
Errors
Random Error
Deviations from the "true value" can be equally likely to be higher or lower than
the true value. See Systematic Error.
Range of
Possible
True Values
Relative Error
The ratio of absolute error to the average, Dx/x. This may also be called
percentage error or fractional uncertainty. See Absolute Error.
Significant
Figures
All non-zero digits plus zeros that do not just hold a place before or after a
decimal point.
Standard
Deviation
Standard Error
in the Mean
Systematic Error A situation where all measurements fall above or below the "true value".
Recognizing and correcting systematic errors is very difficult.
Uncertainty
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