Tutorial 1 Answers

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1. Based on the data presented in Figure 1: a) What sector (and/or sub-sector) is most responsible for climate change?

Sector (and/or sub-sector) that is most responsible for climate change is from Energy Sector (Electricity & Heat). b) Which greenhouse gas is most responsible for climate change and where does most of this gas come from? Greenhouse gas that is most responsible for climate change is Carbon Dioxide (CO2) with 77%. This gas mostly comes from Energy Sector (Transportation, Electricity & Heat, Other Fuel Combustion, Industry, Fugitive Emissions, and Industrial Processes); Land Use Change Sector with 18.2% and Industrial Processes (3.4%). c) Which gas is the second most important to climate change and where does most of this gas come from? The second most important gas to climate change is Methane (CH4) with 14%. Mostly this gas comes from Agriculture Sector, Waste Sector, and Energy Sector. d) What is the total % contribution to climate change of activities not related to the use or production of energy? 3.4% + 18.2% + 13.5% + 3.6% = 38.7% e) What is the total % contribution to climate change of activities related to the use and production of energy? 13.5% + 24.6% + 9% + 10.4% + 3.9% = 64.4% f) Is it possible to avert climate change by adopting a business as usual approach to energy use and production while addressing the other drivers of climate change like deforestation and landfills? Yes, it is possible, however to be better, all sector should give their main support and contribute on the climate change.

2. Based on the data presented in Figure 2: a) What are the three natural contributors to global climate listed in Figure 2? The three natural contributors to global climate listed in Figure 2 are Solar, Volcanic and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) b) According to these data, can these three natural climate mechanisms account for observed increases in temperature over the last 50-65 years? No, however, it can help to determine the effect of climate change. c) What are the two human drivers of climate change listed in Figure 2? Do these both work in the same way?

Greenhouse gases (GHG) and Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) are the two human drivers of climate change. Yes, it does work in the same way in contributes climate change however the effect of both driver is different in their area such as depletion of ozone layer and etc.
d) How does the magnitude of the human drivers of climate change compare to the natural drivers of climate change? Given the relative magnitudes of each, which mechanism (human or natural) is more likely to account for temperature patterns over the last 50-65 years?

The magnitude of the human drivers is bigger in contribute to climate change compare to the natural drivers of climate change. Based on this magnitude, human mechanism is more likely to account for temperature patterns over the last 50-65 years.

3. Climate change deniers will often cite the urban heat island effect as the cause for increasing global temperatures. This argument says that we see increasing temperatures only because we measure temperature in cities and as cities grow the cities themselves make the surrounding air hotter but the planet as a whole does not warm, only that in the cities. Do the data in Figure 3 refute or support this argument and why? Yes, as the city grow, forestation taking place which reduce tree, natural resources and etc. which indirectly contribute in the increasing surrounding warm air temperature. As city grows, the industrial sector also grows indirectly and contributes to the warm temperature as well. Although the spot of warm temperature is spotted in city, it does not mean other area is not increasing as well. The city warm temperature will give effect on other place indirectly in longer time period.

4. The three main natural drivers of climate and potentially climate change are graphed against changes in global temperature in Figure 4. These drivers include volcanic explosions (which tend to cause temperatures to decrease) and sunspot occurrence and solar irradiance (increases in which would be expected to correspond with increasing temperatures). a) Is there evidence in the temperature record that major volcanic eruptions result in decreasing temperatures? No, there is no evidence in the temperature record that major volcanic eruptions result in decreasing temperature. b) Is this phenomenon long lived? Yes, this phenomenon is long lived. c) Is there evidence to suggest that the reason that global temperatures are increasing in recent years is because we have had a reduction in the number of large volcanic eruptions? No. there is no evidence to suggest that the reason that global temperatures are increasing in recent years is because we have had a reduction in the number of large volcanic eruptions. d) Figure 4a shows a very strong pattern of increasing temperature from 1980 to 2004 with a few anomalies caused by large volcanic eruptions. Can the temperature increase observed over this period be attributed to increasing solar irradiance or an increased occurrence of sunspots (Figure 4b) over this period? No, however, the effect of it is unknown and very small compare to other factor. e) If climate was responding to natural drivers alone, what would you expect the temperature to have done over the period between 1980 and 2004? If the climate was responding to natural driver alone, an expected temperature would be increase in between 1980 and 2004 but in small amount of increase in temperature.

5. Figures 5 and 6 provide data about and patterns for the three most important greenhouse gasses. a) What are the three most important greenhouse gasses in terms of their contribution to climate change? Three most important greenhouse gasses are Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4) and Nitrous Oxide (N2O). b) Since 1900, what has been the trend in the atmospheric concentration of these three gasses? Since 1990, the trend in the atmospheric concentration is drastically increases. c) Of these three gasses, which has the highest global warming potential? Nitrous Oxide (N2O) d) Given the global warming potentials listed in Figure 6, why is most of the discussion about climate change focussed on CO2 which has the lowest global warming potential? The reason is because the Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is uncontrolled emitted gas which produces by human in every sector compare to other gasses that contribute in the global warming. Further, Carbon Dioxide (CO2) can contribute to produce Carbon Monoxide (CO) which is more dangerous for human and life. e) How do the trends in the concentration of these three gasses compare to the temperature trend since 1900 presented in Figure 4?

As the three gasses increases, the temperature trend since 1900 also increases.
f) Given the totality of evidence presented in this tutorial exercise, what do you think is the most likely cause of climate change?

Human activities most likely cause climate change.

6. Figure 7 presents data for modelled and observed temperature patterns from 1900 to 1990 against some of the radioactive forcing (both natural and anthropogenic) investigated in this tutorial. Many climate change deniers focus on the period circled in purple as evidence that climate change is not caused by humans as temperatures remained relatively constant over this period while greenhouse gas concentrations continued to rise. a) Do the climate change models accurately predict that the temperatures over this period should have been unchanged? No, the climate change models not accurately predict the temperature over the period. b) What was happening to other climate forcing (i.e., all others except greenhouse gas concentrations) over this period that may account for the observed temperature patterns?

It varies and depending on the situation during the year which contribute to the temperature pattern.
c) Does the temperature pattern highlighted in purple invalidate the science that suggests that greenhouse gasses are the main agent of climate change? Why or why not?

Yes, if we does not take any consideration with other factor. However, although the temperature pattern matched the temperature change due to greenhouse gases, but the highlighted purple need to take consideration in climate change attribute.

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