Market Outlook, 28th January 2013

Market Outlook
January 28, 2013
Dealers Diary
Domestic Indices
The Indian market is expected to open marginally in the green tracing positive
opening trades in the SGX Nifty and most of the Asian indices.
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
0.9
Nifty
0.9
55.3
6,075
The US markets moved notably higher over the course of the trading day on
Friday. The markets benefited from a positive reaction to the latest batch of
earnings news, which overshadowed a disappointing housing report. Major
European bourses ended the trading session on Friday in positive territory. The
stronger than expected increase in German business sentiment and the news
regarding bank repayment of LTROs were viewed positively. Comments from ECB
President Mario Draghi also provided a boost to investor sentiment. The markets
were largely able to shrug off the higher than expected decline in British GDP.
MID CAP
1.8
125.6
6,974
SMALL CAP
1.0
72.9
7,143
BSE HC
1.5
118.1
7,991
BSE PSU
1.2
94.3
7,678
BANKEX
1.2
168.2 14,565
AUTO
2.2
236.8 11,071
METAL
1.6
163.2 10,599
OIL & GAS
0.4
36.7
9,536
Meanwhile, the Indian markets rallied on Friday on growing hopes of at least 25

basis points cut in policy rates by the RBI in its upcoming monetary policy review on
Tuesday. Reports that the RBI may issue final guidelines for new bank permits by
next month and positive global cues following upbeat economic data from China,
Europe and the U.S. also helped boost investor risk appetite.
BSE IT
0.9
58.4
6,414
(Pts)
(Close)
Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 20,054 / 6,057 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 20,179 20,254 / 6,099 6,123 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
20,054 / 6,057 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
19,978 19,853 / 6,033 5,990 levels.
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
19,853
19,978
20,054
20,179
20,254
NIFTY
5,990
6,033
6,057
6,099
6,123
Global Indices
Chg (%)
179.7 20,104
Dow Jones
0.5
70.6 13,896
NASDAQ
0.6
19.3
3,150
FTSE
0.3
19.5
6,284
Nikkei
2.9
Hang Seng
305.8 10,927
(0.1)
(18.5)
23,580
0.6
20.9
3,269
(0.5)
(11.3)
2,291
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
INFY
0.1
0.0
$52.7
WIT
1.9
0.2
$9.4
IBN
1.9
0.9
$46.4
HDB
0.6
0.3
$40.8
Straits Times
Shanghai Com
Indian ADR
News Analysis
Defence Ministry classifies RIL's KG-D6 block as "No-Go" area

Godrej Consumer Products to sell Indonesian food biz to Creador
Ceat signs JV with a Bangladesh firm
3QFY2013 Result Review: Maruti Suzuki , Persistent, Sarda Energy
3QFY2013 Result Preview: Bank of India, JSW Steel, KPIT
Advances / Declines
` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
MTD
YTD
FII
3,530
2,716
815
16,427
16,427
435
651
(216)
(2,994)
(2,994)
FII Derivatives (January 25, 2013)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Open Interest
Index Futures
2,343
2,656
(313)
7,915
Stock Futures
3,352
3,018
334
33,933
Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Losers
Price (`)
chg (%)
Price (`)
chg (%)
Suzlon Energy
21
16.9
Coromandel Intl
224
(3.2)
HDIL
83
10.5
Marico
217
(2.3)
1,266
7.9
Exide Inds.
86
7.6
Astrazeneca Phar
513
6.7
SJVN
Jubl Food
Reliance Comm
Glenmark Pharma
www.angelbroking.com
Advances
1,663
926
Declines
1,214
585
114
76
Volumes (` cr)
Net Inflows (January 23, 2013)
Company
NSE
Unchanged
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
MFs
BSE
Company
121
(2.1)
1,361
(1.9)
22
(1.8)
BSE
2,364
NSE
12,915
Market Outlook
January 28, 2013
Defence Ministry classifies RIL's KG-D6 block as "No-Go"

area
Media reports suggest that the Defence Ministry has classified Reliance Industries
(RIL) and its partner BP Plc's KG-D6 gas fields and gas discovery area NEC-25 as
"No-Go" areas. Media sources also suggest that Ministry of Defence has either
withdrawn or withheld clearances for 47 oil and gas blocks (14 of which have
been classified as "No-Go areas). RIL-BP's KG-DWN-98/3 or KG-D6 block has
been declared as "No-Go" as it overlaps with a proposed Naval base. KG-D6 was
awarded to RIL during CY2000 by the Cabinet after clearances from all ministries
concerned and it has been producing gas beginning April 1, 2009. Currently, the
gas output from KG-D6 block is approximately 24mmscmd. RIL-BP's Mahanadi
basin block NEC-OSN-97/2 (NEC-25) where sizable gas discoveries have been
made, has also been classified as "No-Go" area as it is close to missile launching
range/air force exercise area. Approximately 11% of our RILs SOTP valuation
comes from KG-D6 and NEC-25 blocks. Hence, this event is likely to have a
negative impact on RILs stock price in the near-term. However, we await further
clarity on this matter. Until then, we maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.
Out of the 12 No-Go areas, there are some blocks allocated to ONGC and
Cairn India. However, there is lack of clarity on the quantum of production from
these blocks currently. Hence, we maintain our Reduce rating on ONGC with a
target price of `312 and Buy rating on Cairn India with a target price of `383.
Godrej Consumer Products to sell Indonesian food biz to

Creador
Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) has entered into an agreement with private
equity firm Creador to divest its non-core food business in Indonesia. The
transaction is expected to be completed in two months. GCPLs food business in
Indonesia includes cereals, snack and instant food products under the brands
Simba and Turbo. GCPL had acquired these businesses in 2010 as a part of its
deal to acquire the Megasari group in 2010. GCPLs Indonesian food businesses
generated net sales of about US $22 million in 2012. Although GCPL has not
disclosed the deal, media reports place the value of the deal at US $30-34mn. We
believe this decision by GCPL would enable it to focus on its core home and
personal care business. We also expect the companys profit margins to improve
and result in better return ratios. We maintain a neutral rating on the stock.
Ceat signs JV with a Bangladesh firm

Ceat has signed a joint venture (JV) agreement with A K Khan and Company, a
Bangladesh based business house, to set up a bias tyre manufacturing facility in
Bangladesh. The plant is expected to manufacture bias tyres in truck, light
commercial vehicle, and two-wheeler segments for the local Bangladesh market.
The JV which would entail an investment of US$67mn (`355cr) towards the new
plant is expected to commence operations by the end of 2014. The plant is
expected to have an installed capacity of 110MT/day and is likely to be completed
in phases. As per the agreement, while Ceat will hold 70% in the JV Company,
balance 30% will be held by A K Khan and Company. Further, Ceat will also
Market Outlook
January 28, 2013
provide technology and operational support to the JV Company. Around `40`50cr of Ceats planned capital expenditure towards the new plant will be incurred
in FY2013E and the remaining will be incurred in FY2014E. The announcement by
the company is on the expected lines as it had already announced its intentions of
setting up a manufacturing facility in Bangladesh. At `105, the stock is trading at
attractive valuations of 2.6x FY2014E earnings. We maintain our Buy rating on the
stock with a target price of `163.
3QFY2013 Result Review

Maruti Suzuki (CMP: `1,600/ TP: -/ Upside: -)
Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) reported strong set of results for 3QFY2013. While the
top-line (up 35% qoq) was broadly in-line with our estimates; bottom-line was
slightly ahead despite higher tax rate (at 26% as against 19% in 2QFY2013),
driven by EBITDA margin expansion (up 183bp sequentially to 8%).
For 3QFY2013, net sales grew by a robust 44.9% yoy (22.9% qoq) to
`11,200cr which was in-line with our estimates, driven by 25.9% yoy (30.9%
qoq) and 15.7% yoy (3.8% qoq) growth in volumes and net average
realization respectively. While volume growth came on the back of the low
base (volumes in 3QFY2012 and 2QFY2013 were impacted due to labor
strike); net average realization improved on account of superior product-mix
(higher share of Swift, Dzire and Ertiga and higher proportion of diesel
vehicles in the volume-mix), lower discounts (at `12,100/ unit vs. `14,700/
unit in 2QFY2013 and price hikes. The share of diesel vehicle stood at ~40%
in 3QFY2013 as against ~33% in 2QFY2013. On the operating front,
margins improved 183bp sequentially to 8% primarily due to favorable
product-mix, operating leverage benefits and favorable currency movement.
The royalty expense for the quarter stood at 5.6% as against 6% in
3QFY2012. Led by strong operating performance base effect, net profit
surged 143.8% yoy (120.4% qoq) to `501cr, slightly ahead of our estimates of
`474cr.
Going ahead, we expect the operating performance of MSIL to improve further
led by price increases carried out in January 2013 and favorable currency
movement. Further, the company has indicated that the benefits of Yen
depreciation will materialize from 1QFY2014 which should support margin
expansion. However, at the CMP of `1,600, the stock is trading at rich
valuations of 16.7x FY2014E earnings. We therefore maintain our Neutral
rating on the stock.
Y/E
Sales OPM
PAT
EPS
RoE
March
(` cr) (%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
FY2013E
42,304 7.5
1,860
64.4
FY2014E
51,088 8.9
2,764
95.6
P/E P/BV
(x)
EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
(x)
(x)
(x)
11.6
24.9 2.8
12.1
0.8
15.3
16.7 2.4
8.0
0.6
Market Outlook
January 28, 2013
Persistent (CMP: `559 / TP: Under review / Upside: -)

Persistent Systems (Persistent) reported its 3QFY2013 results which came in line
with our expectations on the revenue front but disappointed on operating margin
front. The dollar revenues came in at US$60.8mn, up 1.2% qoq, led by 2.1% qoq
revenue growth from IT services revenue which came in at US$49.7mn. The
companys EBITDA margin declined considerable by ~250bp qoq to 24.8% which
was a negative surprise. PAT stood at `50cr, up 10.9% qoq aided by forex gain of
`1.8cr as against loss of `4.1cr n 2QFY2013. We await further clarity from
management regarding decline seen in operating margins and keep stock under
review.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
March
(` cr)
(%)
FY2013E
1,277
FY2014E
1,398
PAT EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
26.8
192 48.0
19.0
11.6
2.2
5.3
1.4
25.2
216 53.9
17.9
10.4
1.9
4.8
1.2
(` cr)
Sarda Energy and Minerals (CMP: `128, TP: `153, Upside: 20%)
Sarda Energy and Minerals (SEML) reported healthy 3QFY2013 numbers. The net
sales grew by 29.9% yoy to `370cr mainly driven by healthy performance from
steel business (+52.5% yoy to `275cr). The EBITDA growth was however subdued
at 10.7% yoy to `71cr due to higher raw material costs and other expenses.
Interest costs increased by 23.4% yoy to `18cr while other income declined by
59.4% yoy to `4cr. As a result, the net profit of the company declined 3.3% yoy to
`27cr. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `153.
EV/
EV/Sales
EBITDA
(x)
(x)
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
FY13E
1,442
17.6
98
27.2
11.5
4.7
0.5
3.8
0.7
FY14E
1,494
17.2
103
28.7
11.0
4.5
0.5
3.6
0.6
3QFY2013 Result Preview

Bank of India- (CMP: `364 / TP: - / Upside: -)
Bank of India is scheduled to announce its 3QFY2013 results today. We expect the
bank to report NII growth of 8.9% yoy to `2,253cr. Non-interest income is
expected to register growth of 9.8% yoy to `936cr. Operating expenses are
expected to be higher by 15.7% yoy, while provisioning expenses are expected to
increase by 54.6% yoy to `1,072cr. Net profit is expected to decline by 22.2% yoy
to `557cr. At CMP, the stock is trading at valuations of 0.9x FY2014E P/ABV.
Currently, we have a Neutral recommendation on the stock. The banks
management has changed recently and we would have a relook at our
rating/outlook on the stock, post the results.
Y/E
Op. Inc
NIM
PAT
EPS
ABV
ROA
ROE
P/E
P/ABV
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
12,568
2.2
2,391
41.6 332.7
0.6
11.6
8.8
1.1
FY2014E
14,758
2.4
3,680
64.0 391.2
0.8
15.9
5.7
0.9
March
Market Outlook
January 28, 2013
JSW Steel (CPM: `864, TP:-, Upside :-)

JSW Steel is slated to announce its 3QFY2013 results today. We expect its
standalone net sales to grow by 8.5% yoy to `8,531cr mainly on account of
increased sales volumes as well as realizations and operating margin is
expected to expand by 162bp yoy to 17.3% mainly on account of lower raw
material costs. However net profit is expected to decrease by 32.5% yoy to
`451cr mainly because of higher tax expenses and interest costs in this
quarter. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
EV/
EV/Sales
EBITDA
(x)
(x)
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
FY13E 39,586
17.6
1,755
78.6
10.2
11.0
1.1
5.1
0.9
FY14E 41,594
19.9
2,843
127.4
14.8
6.8
0.9
4.3
0.8
KPIT (CMP: `112 / TP: `130 / Upside: 16%)

KPIT Cummins Infosystems (KPIT) is slated to announce its 3QFY2013 results
today. We expect the company to post revenue of US$105mn, up 1.0%. In INR
terms, the revenue is expected to come in at `565cr, almost flat qoq. EBITDA
margin is expected to increase by 55bp qoq to 17.2. PAT is expected to come in at
`57cr. We maintain Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `130.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
2,221
16.1
199
11.3
21.9
10.0
2.2
5.5
0.9
FY2014E
2,390
15.9
240
13.0
20.9
8.6
1.8
4.8
0.8
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Adani Power (28/01/2013)
Particulars (` cr)
3QFY13E
3QFY12
y-o-y (%)
2QFY13
q-o-q (%)
1,891
1,059
79
1,433
32
EBITDA
445
212
110
150
196
EBITDA margin (%)
23.5
20.0
Net profit
(133)
(358)
(63)
(225)
(41)
Adani Ports & SEZ (28/01/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
3QFY13E
3QFY12
y-o-y (%)
2QFY13
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
Net sales
778
655
19
698
12
EBITDA
548
481
14
552
(1)
EBITDA margin (%)
70.4
73.4
Net profit
375
311
21
430
(13)
Bank of India (28/01/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
3QFY13E
3QFY12
y-o-y (%)
2QFY13
q-o-q (%)
716
302
152
Net profit
10.5
762
79.1
Market Outlook
January 28, 2013
JSW Steel Consolidated (28/01/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
3QFY13E
y-o-y (%)
2QFY13
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
8,772
8,405
9,475
(7)
EBITDA
1,531
(9)
1,396
1,317
EBITDA margin (%)
15.9
15.7
Net profit
239
(55)
(534)
678
(65)
3QFY12
y-o-y (%)
2QFY13
q-o-q (%)
4,476
(13)
3,488
12
(26)
454
Reliance Infrastructure (28/01/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
3QFY13E
Net sales
3,908
16.2
EBITDA
486
652
EBITDA margin (%)
12.4
14.6
Net profit
337
416
(19)
414
(19)
Crompton Greaves Consolidated (29/01/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
3QFY13E
3QFY12
y-o-y (%)
2QFY13
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
13.0
3,226
3,028
2,924
10
EBITDA
161
183
(12)
136
18
EBITDA margin (%)
5.0
6.0
Net profit
68
77
(12)
42
62
Dabur India Consolidated (29/01/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
3QFY13E
3QFY12
y-o-y (%)
2QFY13
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
4.7
1,711
1,453
18
1,523
12
EBITDA
282
232
21
269
EBITDA margin (%)
16.5
16.0
Net profit
210
172
22
204
Glenmark Pharma Consolidated (29/01/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
3QFY13E
3QFY12
y-o-y (%)
2QFY13
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
17.7
1,260
1,031
22
1,255
EBITDA
270
103
163
271
(0)
EBITDA margin (%)
21.4
10.0
Net profit
171
46
272
160
Idea Consolidated (29/01/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
3QFY13E
3QFY12
y-o-y (%)
2QFY13
q-o-q (%)
21.6
Net sales
5,523
5,020
10
5,307
EBITDA
11
1,423
1,499
1,345
EBITDA margin (%)
27.1
26.8
Net profit
269
201
34
240
12
Sterlite Industries Consolidated (29/01/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
3QFY13E
3QFY12
y-o-y (%)
2QFY13
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Net profit
3QFY12
26.8
11,065
10,246
11,029
2,532
2,318
2,527
22.9
22.6
1,399
1,380
22.9
1
2,322
(40)
Market Outlook
January 28, 2013
United Phosphorous Consolidated (29/01/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
3QFY13E
3QFY12
Net sales
y-o-y (%)
2QFY13
q-o-q (%)
2,082
1,872
11
1,802
16
EBITDA
363
348
326
11
EBITDA margin (%)
17.4
18.6
Net profit
142
122
17
139
3QFY13E
3QFY12
y-o-y (%)
2QFY13
q-o-q (%)
796
670
19
774
12
176
(5)
Colgate (30/01/2013)
Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
18.1
EBITDA
167
149
EBITDA margin (%)
21.0
22.3
Net profit
137
116
18
145
(6)
Power Finance Corporation (30/01/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
3QFY13E
3QFY12
y-o-y (%)
2QFY13
q-o-q (%)
Net profit
22.7
1,040
1,108
(6)
1,036
Titan Industries (30/01/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
3QFY13E
3QFY12
y-o-y (%)
2QFY13
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
2,888
2,440
18
2,258
28
EBITDA
286
213
34
249
15
EBITDA margin (%)
9.9
8.7
Net profit
206
164
11.0
26
180
Economic and Political News
RBI hikes FII limit in govt. securities and corporate bond by US$5bn each
Railways eyes `6,000cr from non-core business
PE, venture capital investments slump to US $7.6bn in 2012: E&Y
Corporate News
Diageo-United Spirits deal clearance work in progress: CCI

Ashok Leyland to dilute stake in subsidiaries
Maruti told to pay `138cr more in Manesar land case
Maruti Suzuki buys land for 4th plant
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
14
Market Outlook
January 28, 2013
Result Calendar
Date
Company
January 28, 2013
February 01, 2013
Mundra Port, Bank of India, Adani Power, JSW Steel , Reliance Infra., Amara Raja Batteries, KPIT Cummins
Sterlite Inds, Idea Cellular, Dabur India, Crompton Greaves, Reliance Capital, Glenmark Pharma., United Phosphorus,
Areva, Indoco Remedies
Titan Inds., Power Fin.Corpn., Nalco, Colgate, Central Bank, IOB, Ipca labs, Dena Bank, Jyoti Structures, PVR
ICICI Bank, Punjab Natl.Bank, Siemens, Grasim Inds, Lupin, Union Bank, Godrej Consumer, Cummins India,
Mahindra Satyam, Allahabad Bank, Tata Global, Thermax, Jagran Prakashan
Bharti Airtel, BHEL, Adani Enterp., IDFC, Marico, Corporation Bank, TVS Motor, Hind. Const., Graphite India
February 02, 2013
Divi's Lab., Indian Bank
January 29, 2013

January 30, 2013
January 31, 2013
February 03, 2013

February 04, 2013
J & K Bank, Bank of Baroda, Rural Elec.Corp., United Spirits, ITNL, Taj GVK
February 05, 2013
NHPC, UCO Bank, United Bank
February 06, 2013
MOIL, Apollo Tyres, Automotive Axle, J K Lakshmi Cements, Honeywell Automation
February 07, 2013
Ambuja Cements, ACC, Aurobindo Pharma, Anant Raj, CEAT, MRF, Jyothy Laboratories
M&M, Sun Pharma, Hindalco, Cadila Healthcare, GMR Infra., Tata Chemicals, GSPL, BGR Energy , Nagarjuna Const.,
Subros, Cravatex
February 08, 2013

February 09, 2013
February 10, 2013
February 11, 2013
ONGC, Tata Power Co., Britannia, Hexaware, GIPCL, Dishman Pharma
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar

Date
Time
Country Event Description
Unit
Period
January 29, 2013
8:30PM
US
Consumer Confidence
11:00AM
India
11:00AM
Bloomberg Data
S.A./ 1985=100
Jan
65.10
64.00
RBI Repo rate
Jan 29
8.00
7.75
India
RBI Cash Reserve ratio
Jan 29
4.25
4.25
11:00AM
India
RBI Reverse Repo rate
3:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
7:00PM
US
7:00PM
US
2:25PM
12:45AM
US
2:25PM
Germany PMI Manufacturing
7:00PM
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
7:00PM
US
Unnemployment rate
3:00PM
UK
PMI Manufacturing
6:30AM
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
February 5, 2013
2:25PM
Germany PMI Services
February 7, 2013
5:30PM
UK
6:15PM
Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates
3:00PM
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
5:29PM
China
Exports YoY%
11:00AM
China
5:29PM
India
5:29PM
Last Reported Estimated
January 30, 2013

January 31, 2013
February 1, 2013
February 8, 2013
February 11, 2013
February 12, 2013
February 14, 2013
Jan 29
7.00
6.75
Value
Jan F
(23.90)
(23.90)
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
4Q A
3.10
1.20
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Jan 26
330.00
350.00
Germany Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Jan
3.00
8.00
FOMC rate decision
Jan 30
0.25
0.25
Value
Jan F
48.80
48.80
Thousands
Jan
155.00
160.00
Jan
7.80
7.80
Value
Jan
51.40
51.00
Jan
50.60
51.00
Value
Jan F
55.30
--
% Ratio
Feb 7
0.50
0.50
Feb 7
0.75
--
% Change
Dec
(2.40)
--
% Change
Jan
14.10
--
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Jan
2.50
--
Imports YoY%
% Change
Jan
6.30
--
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Jan
(1.90)
--
BOE Announces rates
3:00PM
UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Jan
2.70
--
11:00AM
India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Dec
(0.10)
--
12:00PM
India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Jan
7.18
--
12:30PM
Germany GDP nsa (YoY)
% Change
4Q P
0.40
--
3:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
4Q A
(0.10)
--
Market Outlook
January 28, 2013
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
11.2
9.0
10.0
7.6
8.2
6.0
8.0
6.7
5.7
6.1
4.0
5.3 5.5 5.3
3.5
2.5
4.3
2.7
2.0
1.0
2.0
(0.1)
Mfg. PMI
60.0
8.0
7.7
7.5
7.6
7.6
Services PMI
8.1
58.0
7.5
56.0
7.5
7.2
6.9
54.0
52.0
(%)
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

Exports yoy growth
30.0
48.0
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
50.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Repo rate
(%)
9.00
Imports yoy growth
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
8.00
8.00
15.0
7.00
7.00
6.00
4.25
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
4.00
Jan-12
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
5.00
Dec-11
(30.0)
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
0.0
(15.0)
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
(0.7)
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
7.4
(2.0) (0.1)
(2.8) (1.3)
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends
7.7
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
(4.0)
Jan-12
(2.0)
Dec-11
2QFY13
1QFY13
4QFY12
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
2QFY10
1QFY10
Source: CSO, Angel Research
8.2
8.0
7.8
7.6
7.4
7.2
7.0
6.8
6.6
6.4
6.2
8.3
8.0
9.2
8.5
7.5
4QFY09
12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
Market Outlook
January 28, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis
Neutral
138
2,679
1,466
1,686
14.8
14.8
7.0
8.1
19.7
17.0
4.2
3.6
22.6
22.5
1.9
1.6
United Phosphorus
Buy
138
170
6,104
8,421
9,263
16.5
16.5
15.0
17.0
9.2
8.1
1.3
1.2
15.6
15.5
0.8
0.7
Amara Raja Batteries
Neutral
298
5,095
2,911
3,321
16.2
16.2
17.3
19.8
17.2
15.0
4.7
3.7
31.1
27.6
1.7
1.4
Apollo Tyres
Accumulate
84
96
4,236
13,713
15,341
11.2
11.2
12.5
14.8
6.7
5.7
1.3
1.0
20.2
19.9
0.5
0.4
Ashok Leyland
Accumulate
25
28
6,652
12,910
14,836
8.8
9.6
1.5
2.2
16.9
11.2
2.2
2.0
9.3
13.4
0.6
0.5
Automotive Axle#
Neutral
370
559
1,103
1,240
11.0
11.3
39.1
45.0
9.5
8.2
1.7
1.7
19.5
22.8
0.6
0.4
Bajaj Auto
Neutral
2,079
60,165
20,775
23,889
18.5
19.0
107.6
126.4
19.3
16.5
8.0
6.3
45.8
42.8
2.5
2.1
Bharat Forge
Buy
233
278
5,433
6,754
7,565
15.5
15.7
18.8
23.2
12.5
10.1
2.2
1.8
18.5
19.7
1.0
0.8
Bosch India*
Accumulate
9,097
9,570
28,565
9,973
11,320
17.8
18.0
396.2
455.7
23.0
20.0
4.3
3.6
18.8
18.2
2.5
2.1
CEAT
Buy
105
163
361
4,989
5,634
8.2
8.5
27.1
40.8
3.9
2.6
0.5
0.4
13.2
17.2
0.3
0.2
Exide Industries
Neutral
121
10,298
6,112
7,074
13.1
14.9
6.1
8.2
19.8
14.8
3.0
2.6
16.0
18.8
1.4
1.1
FAG Bearings*
Accumulate
1,677
1,807
2,786
1,715
1,939
17.6
18.4
127.7
150.6
13.1
11.1
2.6
2.1
21.7
21.1
1.4
1.1
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
1,764
1,923
35,229
23,990
27,038
13.8
14.6
105.8
120.2
16.7
14.7
6.7
5.4
44.3
41.0
1.2
1.0
JK Tyre
Buy
116
165
476
7,517
8,329
6.6
6.6
37.2
41.3
3.1
2.8
0.5
0.5
18.8
17.8
0.3
0.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate
900
998
55,234
40,035
46,272
11.5
11.6
54.4
62.1
16.5
14.5
3.7
3.1
24.2
23.2
1.2
1.0
Maruti
Neutral
1,600
46,231
42,304
51,088
7.5
8.7
64.4
92.9
24.9
17.2
2.8
2.4
11.6
14.9
0.9
0.7
Motherson Sumi
Neutral
198
11,619
24,285
27,317
6.7
7.2
8.1
10.6
24.6
18.7
5.2
4.2
22.9
24.7
0.6
0.6
Subros
Buy
27
35
159
1,286
1,479
9.4
9.7
2.6
5.1
10.2
5.3
0.6
0.5
5.6
10.3
0.4
0.4
Tata Motors
Accumulate
301
337
80,237 190,883 217,164
12.8
13.1
35.5
42.5
8.5
7.1
2.2
1.8
30.2
27.6
0.5
0.4
TVS Motor
Accumulate
43
46
2,045
7,298
8,123
6.1
6.4
4.6
5.8
9.5
7.4
1.6
1.3
17.4
19.4
0.2
0.2
Capital Goods
ABB*
Reduce
674
573
14,279
7,790
9,653
4.5
7.8
8.7
22.1
77.5
30.5
5.4
4.7
7.1
16.5
1.8
1.5
BGR Energy
Neutral
248
1,791
3,567
4,357
11.8
10.9
24.6
26.8
10.1
9.3
1.5
1.3
30.7
26.3
0.9
0.8
BHEL
Neutral
230
56,172
47,801
43,757
18.5
18.0
24.6
21.8
9.3
10.5
2.8
2.4
33.5
24.5
1.0
1.2
Blue Star
Buy
168
224
1,515
2,538
2,681
4.6
5.7
7.3
11.3
22.9
14.9
3.4
2.9
15.6
20.7
0.7
0.6
Crompton Greaves
Buy
110
135
7,085
12,320
14,390
5.5
7.2
4.3
7.8
25.7
14.2
1.9
1.7
7.4
12.6
0.6
0.5
Jyoti Structures
Buy
42
51
342
2,794
3,048
10.6
10.6
9.2
11.7
4.5
3.6
0.5
0.4
11.9
13.5
0.3
0.3
KEC International
Buy
64
78
1,647
6,909
7,907
6.2
7.2
5.4
8.8
11.9
7.3
1.4
1.2
17.0
23.6
0.4
0.4
LMW
Reduce
2,223
1,992
2,504
2,369
2,727
11.7
11.7
143.4
166.0
15.5
13.4
2.6
2.4
17.4
18.4
0.6
0.4
Thermax
Neutral
583
6,941
5,552
5,767
9.3
10.2
28.3
30.9
20.6
18.9
3.7
3.2
19.3
18.4
1.1
1.0
Market Outlook
January 28, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,331
24,984
11,012
12,333
21.1
20.9
77.0
80.3
17.3
16.6
3.3
3.0
19.5
18.7
2.0
1.7
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
199
30,651
10,210
11,811
26.0
25.7
11.2
12.6
17.8
15.8
3.8
3.4
20.3
20.7
2.6
2.1
India Cements
Neutral
88
2,697
4,293
4,666
17.7
18.1
8.6
10.8
10.2
8.2
0.8
0.7
7.5
9.0
1.0
0.9
J K Lakshmi Cements
Neutral
146
1,782
2,171
2,544
22.5
22.5
21.6
23.2
6.7
6.3
1.2
1.0
19.0
17.8
0.9
1.2
Madras Cements
Neutral
235
5,590
3,814
4,045
28.8
27.1
18.3
18.7
12.9
12.6
2.3
2.0
19.4
17.0
2.1
1.9
Shree Cements^
Neutral
4,456
15,525
5,678
6,251
29.0
28.6
288.1
334.0
15.5
13.3
4.3
3.4
31.7
28.4
2.2
1.8
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
1,918
52,593
20,466
23,017
23.3
24.3
100.0
117.1
19.2
16.4
3.5
3.0
19.6
19.5
2.5
2.3
200
286
1,053
2,032
2,311
22.4
22.4
27.0
31.6
7.4
6.3
0.9
0.8
13.0
13.4
1.9
2.2
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Buy
Consolidated Co
Neutral
16
297
2,262
2,522
5.9
6.3
0.9
1.6
17.6
10.4
0.5
0.5
2.7
4.6
0.4
0.4
IRB Infra
Buy
117
164
3,902
3,843
4,212
43.1
43.6
16.8
17.8
7.0
6.6
1.2
1.1
18.3
17.0
3.1
3.4
ITNL
Accumulate
203
225
3,938
6,564
7,054
27.2
27.4
26.3
29.0
7.7
7.0
1.2
1.1
17.0
16.3
2.7
2.8
IVRCL Infra
Neutral
35
1,066
4,249
6,897
7.8
8.2
0.3
3.4
112.7
10.2
0.5
0.5
0.4
4.4
0.8
0.5
Jaiprakash Asso.
Buy
Larsen & Toubro
Accumulate
Nagarjuna Const.
87
100
18,704
13,842
15,863
26.9
26.4
3.7
4.6
23.7
19.0
1.4
1.3
6.2
7.3
2.8
2.5
1,607
1,788
98,837
60,666
69,525
10.6
11.2
71.9
85.0
22.4
18.9
3.5
3.1
14.5
15.2
1.8
1.6
Neutral
53
1,355
5,947
6,569
8.5
8.6
3.1
4.1
17.0
12.8
0.6
0.5
3.3
4.2
0.6
0.6
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
51
1,697
11,892
13,116
9.0
9.0
1.8
3.2
28.2
15.9
0.6
0.6
2.0
3.5
0.6
0.5
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
125
168
1,887
2,344
2,804
10.6
10.7
7.2
8.7
17.4
14.4
2.1
1.8
13.0
13.5
1.2
1.0
Simplex Infra
Buy
187
251
926
6,882
8,032
9.1
9.1
23.2
31.3
8.1
6.0
0.7
0.6
9.1
11.2
0.5
0.4
Unity Infra
Buy
40
59
297
2,180
2,455
13.7
13.4
13.3
15.0
3.0
2.7
0.4
0.3
12.5
12.5
0.5
0.5
Allahabad Bank
Buy
173
199
8,633
6,403
7,186
2.7
2.8
30.5
33.6
5.7
5.1
0.8
0.7
14.9
14.6
Andhra Bank
Neutral
116
6,502
4,706
5,444
2.9
3.0
21.4
22.4
5.4
5.2
0.9
0.8
15.1
14.2
Axis Bank
Buy
1,384
1,641
59,123
15,959
18,660
3.2
3.2
119.2
139.0
11.6
10.0
2.2
1.9
20.3
20.1
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
881
36,208
15,284
18,032
2.5
2.6
109.6
137.7
8.0
6.4
1.2
1.0
15.5
17.1
Bank of India
Neutral
364
20,909
12,568
14,758
2.2
2.4
41.6
64.1
8.8
5.7
1.1
0.9
11.6
16.0
Bank of Maharashtra
Neutral
59
3,484
3,720
4,268
2.9
2.8
10.9
13.0
5.4
4.6
0.8
0.7
16.2
16.9
Canara Bank
Accumulate
491
516
21,731
10,828
12,005
2.1
2.2
64.7
80.4
7.6
6.1
1.0
0.9
13.2
14.7
Central Bank
Neutral
84
6,154
7,252
8,236
2.5
2.6
16.8
21.4
5.0
3.9
0.9
0.7
13.1
14.8
Corporation Bank
Buy
455
534
6,734
4,835
5,570
2.0
2.2
105.0
99.8
4.3
4.6
0.8
0.7
17.5
14.8
Dena Bank
Accumulate
115
124
4,026
3,125
3,457
2.7
2.8
26.2
24.2
4.4
4.8
0.8
0.7
19.6
15.6
Financials
Market Outlook
January 28, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Financials
Federal Bank
Accumulate
506
557
8,655
2,667
2,920
3.2
3.2
49.1
51.4
10.3
9.9
1.4
1.2
13.9
13.1
HDFC
Neutral
805
124,136
7,446
8,923
3.5
3.5
32.2
38.5
25.0
20.9
5.1
4.5
35.4
32.6
HDFC Bank
Neutral
ICICI Bank
Buy
IDBI Bank
665
157,358
21,724
26,578
4.3
4.3
28.7
36.1
23.2
18.4
4.4
3.7
20.7
22.1
1,173
1,397
134,851
22,219
26,447
2.9
3.0
69.1
82.9
17.0
14.2
2.1
1.9
14.2
15.6
Accumulate
108
122
13,807
8,196
9,305
1.9
2.1
15.4
22.3
7.0
4.8
0.8
0.7
10.7
14.1
Indian Bank
Buy
201
252
8,656
5,902
6,563
3.2
3.2
41.3
43.2
4.9
4.7
0.8
0.7
18.4
16.8
IOB
Accumulate
J & K Bank
Neutral
LIC Housing Finance
83
90
6,647
7,063
8,308
2.3
2.5
12.6
20.4
6.6
4.1
0.6
0.6
9.0
13.3
1,281
6,211
2,830
2,910
3.6
3.6
234.8
197.4
5.5
6.5
1.3
1.1
25.1
18.0
Buy
282
328
14,254
1,799
2,255
2.3
2.4
20.3
27.3
13.9
10.4
2.2
1.9
16.9
19.7
Oriental Bank
Neutral
331
9,643
6,330
7,105
2.6
2.7
58.4
65.1
5.7
5.1
0.8
0.7
14.5
14.4
Punjab Natl.Bank
Accumulate
873
933
29,624
19,688
22,497
3.2
3.3
138.9
164.5
6.3
5.3
1.1
0.9
16.7
17.3
South Ind.Bank
Buy
28
34
3,681
1,583
1,789
3.0
2.9
3.5
4.1
7.9
6.8
1.3
1.2
19.1
17.7
St Bk of India
Neutral
2,513
168,650
60,677
69,712
3.3
3.3
224.3
257.3
11.2
9.8
1.9
1.6
17.6
17.7
Syndicate Bank
Buy
135
159
8,126
6,673
7,644
2.9
3.0
30.0
27.1
4.5
5.0
0.9
0.8
20.7
16.2
UCO Bank
Neutral
Union Bank
Accumulate
United Bank
78
5,188
5,235
6,086
2.3
2.4
12.0
14.9
6.5
5.2
1.1
0.9
12.0
13.5
254
271
13,962
9,963
11,536
2.8
2.9
40.8
46.8
6.2
5.4
1.0
0.9
16.2
16.4
Buy
75
87
2,700
3,498
3,858
2.5
2.8
15.1
21.6
5.0
3.5
0.6
0.5
12.5
16.1
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
60
2,988
2,333
2,728
2.0
2.2
7.3
10.4
8.3
5.8
0.8
0.7
9.3
12.1
Yes Bank
Accumulate
504
576
18,023
3,364
4,260
2.8
3.0
36.3
42.6
13.9
11.8
3.1
2.5
24.6
23.6
4,407
42,275
11,198
13,319
15.9
15.7
122.1
147.1
36.1
30.0
12.2
9.5
37.7
35.7
3.7
3.1
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
Britannia
Buy
484
584
5,789
5,627
6,581
4.9
5.7
18.3
24.7
26.5
19.6
9.7
7.4
39.1
42.7
0.9
0.8
Colgate
Neutral
1,408
19,153
3,146
3,573
20.6
21.4
36.4
42.5
38.7
33.1
35.8
30.0
102.0
98.5
5.9
5.2
Dabur India
Neutral
129
22,423
6,124
7,101
17.0
16.8
4.7
5.4
27.7
23.8
11.7
9.1
44.5
41.5
3.7
3.1
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
3,767
15,841
3,084
3,617
15.3
15.5
101.2
118.3
37.2
31.9
11.3
9.2
33.5
31.9
4.8
4.0
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
723
24,606
6,355
7,548
16.7
17.4
20.3
25.4
35.6
28.4
7.5
6.2
23.2
25.1
4.1
3.4
HUL
Neutral
475
102,726
25,350
28,974
13.3
13.5
15.1
17.0
31.5
28.0
25.0
17.8
85.7
74.3
3.9
3.3
ITC
Neutral
299
236,028
29,148
34,191
35.7
36.1
9.4
11.1
32.0
27.0
10.6
8.8
35.9
35.7
7.8
6.6
Marico
Neutral
217
14,013
4,840
5,643
13.6
13.6
6.4
8.1
33.8
26.8
6.7
5.4
26.3
23.3
3.0
2.4
Nestle*
Neutral
4,645
44,787
8,487
10,081
21.2
22.1
113.0
142.5
41.1
32.6
24.7
17.0
70.5
61.6
5.3
4.4
Market Outlook
January 28, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Neutral
148
9,152
7,207
7,927
9.1
9.5
6.9
8.2
21.4
18.1
2.3
2.2
8.9
9.8
1.2
1.1
HCL Tech^
Accumulate
680
725
47,244
24,453
27,269
19.8
18.7
45.0
50.0
15.1
13.6
3.6
3.0
24.4
22.6
1.9
1.6
Hexaware*
Buy
81
118
2,396
1,941
2,118
20.8
19.0
10.7
10.7
7.6
7.6
1.9
1.6
25.3
22.0
1.0
0.8
Infosys
Neutral
2,815
161,627
40,746
44,283
28.9
28.8
162.6
172.9
17.3
16.3
4.1
3.5
23.5
21.3
3.4
3.0
Infotech Enterprises
Accumulate
172
191
1,921
1,900
2,064
18.2
17.8
19.1
21.2
9.0
8.1
1.4
1.2
15.2
14.6
0.7
0.5
KPIT Cummins
Buy
112
130
2,160
2,221
2,390
16.1
15.9
11.3
13.0
10.0
8.6
2.2
1.8
21.9
20.9
1.0
0.8
Mahindra Satyam
Neutral
121
14,201
7,670
8,308
20.3
19.3
9.9
10.8
12.2
11.1
3.4
2.6
28.0
23.5
1.5
1.3
Mindtree
Neutral
781
3,233
2,339
2,502
20.9
18.4
75.4
78.1
10.4
10.0
2.5
2.0
24.6
20.3
1.1
1.0
Mphasis&
Accumulate
370
396
7,768
5,531
5,874
17.6
17.5
35.4
37.7
10.4
9.8
1.5
1.3
14.7
13.5
0.9
0.7
NIIT
Buy
27
36
447
1,048
1,161
9.1
10.9
4.1
6.2
6.6
4.4
0.7
0.6
10.3
14.1
0.3
0.2
Persistent
Neutral
562
2,248
1,277
1,398
26.8
25.2
48.0
53.9
11.7
10.4
2.2
1.9
19.0
17.9
1.4
1.2
TCS
Accumulate
1,338
1,465
261,837
62,954
70,871
29.0
28.9
71.6
79.1
18.7
16.9
6.2
5.0
33.2
29.7
3.9
3.4
Tech Mahindra
Accumulate
1,006
1,087
12,858
6,671
7,290
19.8
19.0
94.1
106.4
10.7
9.5
2.6
2.0
24.0
21.6
2.0
1.7
Wipro
Neutral
408
100,398
43,231
47,241
20.0
20.0
26.2
28.1
15.6
14.5
3.0
2.6
19.3
17.9
2.0
1.7
D B Corp
Accumulate
239
264
4,376
1,581
1,784
23.3
25.0
11.6
14.4
20.6
16.5
4.0
3.4
21.0
22.3
2.7
2.3
HT Media
Accumulate
106
121
2,491
2,111
2,272
15.0
15.2
7.4
8.3
14.4
12.8
1.6
1.4
11.3
11.4
0.8
0.7
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
109
126
3,433
1,503
1,681
23.1
23.1
6.4
7.3
17.0
14.9
4.2
3.8
25.8
26.5
2.5
2.1
PVR
Neutral
269
779
682
786
17.3
16.9
17.6
19.7
15.3
13.7
1.8
1.6
14.9
14.5
1.5
1.2
Sun TV Network
Neutral
444
17,507
1,942
2,237
77.2
75.5
17.6
19.1
25.2
23.3
6.1
5.5
25.8
25.2
8.5
7.3
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
440
9,969
10,746
13,982
30.8
31.1
43.3
55.5
10.2
7.9
1.1
0.9
11.4
12.6
3.0
2.3
Coal India
Accumulate
341
368
215,514
66,666
70,292
25.7
27.3
24.2
26.6
14.1
12.8
4.2
3.4
33.1
29.1
2.3
2.0
Electrosteel Castings
Buy
24
34
846
1,984
2,074
10.6
11.6
1.8
2.6
13.9
9.4
0.5
0.2
3.6
5.1
0.6
0.5
Hind. Zinc
Buy
129
149
54,401
12,002
13,759
49.7
50.8
14.7
16.4
8.8
7.9
1.7
1.4
21.1
19.8
2.6
1.9
Hindalco
Neutral
116
22,286
79,148
89,258
9.4
9.0
15.0
15.6
7.8
7.5
0.7
0.6
8.8
8.4
0.7
0.6
JSW Steel
Neutral
864
19,271
39,586
41,459
17.6
17.0
78.7
90.1
11.0
9.6
1.1
1.0
10.2
10.7
0.9
0.9
MOIL
Neutral
254
4,261
941
1,019
47.3
48.3
25.8
28.1
9.8
9.0
1.5
1.4
16.7
16.2
2.2
1.8
Monnet Ispat
Buy
266
344
1,697
2,501
3,264
22.2
24.6
41.8
55.2
6.4
4.8
0.7
0.6
11.3
13.4
1.8
1.3
Nalco
Reduce
47
44
12,113
6,898
7,841
9.9
14.7
2.0
3.2
23.7
14.8
1.0
1.0
4.3
6.8
1.3
1.2
NMDC
Buy
160
198
63,554
11,209
12,525
78.4
78.3
18.5
20.6
8.7
7.8
2.1
1.8
27.0
24.6
3.7
3.1
FMCG
Tata Global
IT
Media
Metals & Mining
Market Outlook
January 28, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
EV/Sales(x)
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Metals & Mining

SAIL
Neutral
89
36,844
47,252
60,351
14.2
14.8
9.6
11.7
9.3
7.6
0.8
0.8
9.4
10.6
1.2
1.0
Sesa Goa
Neutral
183
15,922
2,412
3,911
30.8
33.1
29.6
31.8
6.2
5.8
1.0
0.8
16.3
15.4
8.1
5.0
Sterlite Inds
Neutral
112
37,723
43,185
45,442
23.3
23.7
16.8
17.9
6.7
6.3
0.7
0.7
11.6
11.2
0.9
0.8
Tata Steel
Accumulate
407
463
39,485 145,725 154,108
8.3
9.5
22.0
44.5
18.5
9.1
0.9
0.8
4.9
9.3
0.6
0.5
Sarda
Buy
127
153
454
1,442
1,494
17.6
17.3
27.2
28.7
4.7
4.4
0.5
0.5
11.5
11.0
0.7
0.6
Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas
Buy
48
73
639
2,694
2,906
14.6
16.6
16.4
20.8
2.9
2.3
0.3
0.3
11.4
12.8
0.5
0.3
Buy
112
143
354
2,342
2,470
13.7
15.3
27.7
33.8
4.0
3.3
0.4
0.3
10.9
11.4
0.6
0.5
Cairn India
Buy
323
383
61,779
17,394
17,034
76.4
72.3
60.8
55.1
5.3
5.9
1.1
0.9
21.9
17.0
2.7
2.4
GAIL
Neutral
353
44,822
46,652
54,142
15.7
15.7
34.0
35.3
10.4
10.0
1.8
1.6
18.5
16.8
0.7
0.5
ONGC
Reduce
341
312
291,742 147,139 154,821
33.9
33.7
30.7
32.3
11.1
10.6
1.9
1.7
18.3
17.2
1.7
1.6
Reliance Industries
Neutral
912
298,606 362,700 380,031
8.9
8.9
68.1
71.5
13.4
12.8
1.4
1.3
12.4
11.8
0.8
0.7
Gujarat Gas*
Neutral
311
3,982
3,128
3,707
13.2
11.7
22.8
23.5
13.6
13.2
4.1
3.6
33.2
29.2
1.2
0.9
Indraprastha Gas
Neutral
261
3,653
3,213
3,643
23.3
23.5
24.3
25.7
10.7
10.1
2.5
2.1
25.0
22.1
1.2
1.1
Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals
Buy
154
179
11,576
32,210
41,362
6.1
5.8
15.4
15.6
10.0
9.9
2.6
2.2
29.1
24.1
0.4
0.3
74
4,184
1,079
1,034
91.8
91.9
8.8
8.4
8.5
8.9
1.4
1.3
17.9
15.0
3.6
3.7
Alembic Pharma
Buy
71
95
1,338
1,490
1,714
16.2
17.1
7.4
9.5
9.6
7.5
2.6
2.0
30.7
30.2
1.0
0.8
Aurobindo Pharma
Accumulate
187
208
5,454
5,463
6,279
15.0
15.0
12.4
14.0
15.1
13.4
2.0
1.7
18.8
17.8
1.6
1.4
Aventis*
Neutral
2,232
5,139
1,482
1,682
17.5
16.6
82.9
87.8
26.9
25.4
4.2
3.4
16.3
14.8
3.3
2.8
Cadila Healthcare
Accumulate
868
926
17,762
6,148
7,386
18.6
19.6
32.7
44.8
26.5
19.4
5.8
4.7
23.7
26.6
3.3
2.7
Cipla
Accumulate
398
419
31,968
8,151
9,130
25.8
24.8
20.2
21.6
19.7
18.4
3.5
3.0
19.4
17.6
3.7
3.2
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
1,943
32,977
10,696
11,662
20.7
21.0
83.7
92.9
23.2
20.9
4.8
4.0
22.4
20.8
3.4
3.0
Dishman Pharma
Buy
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
Indoco Remedies
Buy
Ipca labs
Neutral
104
145
843
1,280
1,536
20.2
20.2
10.4
14.5
10.0
7.2
0.8
0.8
8.7
11.0
1.3
1.1
2,066
17,497
2,651
2,993
31.7
31.2
76.0
82.4
27.2
25.1
7.9
7.0
20.1
26.3
5.8
5.0
63
89
581
685
837
15.2
15.2
7.4
8.9
8.5
7.1
1.3
1.1
16.4
17.0
1.0
0.8
Neutral
501
6,321
2,850
3,474
21.0
21.0
29.9
37.3
16.8
13.4
4.0
3.2
26.7
26.4
2.4
2.0
Lupin
Accumulate
600
655
26,826
8,426
10,082
19.7
20.0
26.1
31.1
23.0
19.3
5.3
4.3
25.8
24.7
3.3
2.7
Ranbaxy*
Neutral
456
19,289
12,046
11,980
16.0
15.8
37.3
32.1
12.2
14.2
4.7
3.8
45.3
29.7
1.6
1.6
Sun Pharma
Neutral
726
75,083
9,902
12,313
42.6
42.6
26.7
29.1
27.2
25.0
5.2
4.4
20.7
19.1
6.9
5.4
71
78
1,067
1,523
1,568
30.3
30.3
5.4
11.5
13.1
6.1
0.7
0.7
5.6
11.3
1.2
1.0
Power
GIPCL
Accumulate
Market Outlook
January 28, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
159
131,350
72,809
81,951
23.0
23.7
12.0
13.4
13.3
11.9
1.6
1.5
12.5
12.9
2.4
2.3
Power
NTPC
Neutral
Real Estate
Anant Raj
Neutral
83
2,439
657
875
52.0
56.1
8.4
12.7
9.8
6.5
0.6
0.6
6.3
8.9
5.0
3.7
DLF
Neutral
260
44,131
9,878
12,033
44.7
46.1
9.6
13.4
27.1
19.4
1.7
1.6
6.4
8.7
7.0
5.7
HDIL
Buy
83
115
3,457
2,441
3,344
55.1
48.2
22.7
26.6
3.6
3.1
0.3
0.3
8.8
9.4
3.3
2.5
MLIFE
Accumulate
407
446
1,661
786
888
26.3
26.7
31.0
36.3
13.1
11.2
1.3
1.2
10.1
10.8
2.4
2.1
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
360
136,559
80,353
86,654
30.9
31.3
8.6
11.8
42.0
30.5
2.6
2.4
6.1
7.8
2.5
2.2
Idea Cellular
Neutral
113
37,557
21,797
23,142
26.9
27.7
3.1
4.7
36.1
24.3
2.7
2.4
7.4
9.8
2.2
2.0
Rcom
Neutral
86
17,771
21,032
22,084
31.8
30.2
2.9
4.0
29.4
21.6
0.5
0.5
1.6
2.2
2.5
2.3
Telecom
zOthers
Abbott India
Accumulate
1,440
1,590
3,059
1,629
1,886
11.8
13.3
60.8
79.5
23.7
18.1
4.9
4.1
22.0
24.4
1.7
1.4
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
186
217
1,857
3,497
3,968
6.6
7.6
9.8
15.5
19.0
12.0
2.4
2.1
12.7
17.4
0.5
0.5
Cera Sanitaryware
Buy
422
495
534
460
596
16.4
16.2
34.7
45.0
12.2
9.4
3.0
2.3
27.7
27.8
1.2
1.0
Cravatex
Buy
CRISIL
Neutral
Finolex Cables
Accumulate
Force Motors
400
545
103
272
308
7.2
7.3
37.5
45.4
10.7
8.8
2.5
2.0
23.7
22.7
0.5
0.4
1,007
7,072
982
1,136
34.3
34.3
34.3
40.0
29.3
25.2
13.3
10.6
50.9
46.9
6.8
5.7
55
61
845
2,304
2,552
9.9
9.1
8.2
10.1
6.8
5.5
0.9
0.8
13.7
14.7
0.3
0.3
Buy
445
537
579
2,318
2,700
5.0
5.7
45.0
67.0
9.9
6.6
0.5
0.5
5.0
7.0
0.1
0.1
Goodyear India
Accumulate
316
360
728
1,494
1,607
6.4
7.8
23.9
33.0
13.2
9.6
2.1
1.8
16.5
20.1
0.3
0.2
Greenply Industries
Sell
432
309
1,043
1,925
2,235
10.6
10.9
29.6
44.1
14.6
9.8
2.4
1.9
16.8
21.0
0.8
0.7
Hitachi
Neutral
146
335
873
989
4.4
6.5
6.4
12.2
23.0
12.0
1.8
1.6
8.3
14.4
0.4
0.4
2,525
2,842
2,233
1,809
2,117
5.5
7.5
84.9
135.3
29.8
18.7
3.2
2.8
11.3
16.0
1.1
0.9
Honeywell Automation* Accumulate

Styrolution ABS India*
Accumulate
681
744
1,198
1,059
1,116
8.5
9.5
36.0
42.0
18.9
16.2
2.8
2.4
15.4
16.0
1.2
1.1
ITD Cementation
Buy
239
334
275
1,455
1,630
12.4
12.6
29.8
40.5
8.0
5.9
0.6
0.6
8.2
9.8
0.6
0.6
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
150
2,417
1,228
1,443
9.0
10.9
3.9
6.4
38.5
23.5
3.8
3.5
10.1
15.6
2.5
2.1
MCX
Accumulate
1,365
1,440
6,959
553
624
65.3
66.3
62.5
72.0
21.9
19.0
6.0
5.2
27.5
27.4
9.6
8.0
MRF
Neutral
13,251
5,620
13,030
14,405
10.3
10.6 1,418.1 1,677.1
9.3
7.9
1.6
1.4
19.1
18.7
0.5
0.5
Page Industries
Accumulate
3,430
3,602
3,826
836
1,023
20.2
20.6
105.6
133.4
32.5
25.7
16.5
11.7
59.3
53.2
4.6
3.8
Relaxo Footwears
Accumulate
816
933
980
1,019
1,208
11.0
12.5
47.0
66.7
17.4
12.3
4.3
3.2
28.2
30.1
1.1
0.9
Sintex Industries
Buy
63
79
1,987
4,751
5,189
16.3
16.6
13.6
15.8
4.7
4.0
0.6
0.5
12.9
13.2
0.8
0.6
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
289
366
271
1,043
1,149
12.3
12.9
65.7
73.3
4.4
4.0
0.9
0.7
21.0
19.6
0.5
0.5
S. Kumars Nationwide
Neutral
12
367
6,765
7,393
18.1
18.0
6.4
7.5
1.9
1.6
0.1
0.1
6.1
6.7
0.6
0.6
Market Outlook
January 28, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
OPM(%)
FY13E
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
zOthers
SpiceJet
Reduce
47
43
2,284
5,720
6,599
5.3
6.8
3.6
5.4
13.1
8.8
18.9
6.0
0.5
0.4
TAJ GVK
Buy
69
108
430
300
319
35.8
36.2
7.9
9.1
8.7
7.5
1.2
1.0
13.9
14.4
1.7
1.5
Tata Sponge Iron
Buy
310
384
477
750
803
18.6
18.4
65.4
69.1
4.7
4.5
0.7
0.7
16.5
15.3
0.3
0.2
TTK Healthcare
Buy
514
643
399
374
425
7.9
9.5
24.1
32.7
21.4
15.7
19.7
22.5
0.9
0.8
TVS Srichakra
Buy
255
322
195
1,461
1,625
6.9
8.2
24.6
53.7
10.4
4.8
1.3
1.1
12.9
24.9
0.4
0.3
United Spirits
Neutral
1,790
23,418
10,289
11,421
12.8
12.8
26.0
45.3
68.9
39.5
3.1
2.9
5.8
7.6
2.6
2.4
Vesuvius India
Neutral
331
672
560
611
16.1
17.0
24.7
28.8
13.4
11.5
2.0
1.8
15.8
16.2
1.1
1.0
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on January 25, 2013
Market Outlook
January 28, 2013

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Market Outlook

January 28, 2013

OIL & GAS

Meanwhile, the Indian markets rallied on Friday on growing hopes of at least 25

Defence Ministry classifies RIL's KG-D6 block as "No-Go" area

FII Derivatives (January 25, 2013)

Net Inflows (January 23, 2013)

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Defence Ministry classifies RIL's KG-D6 block as "No-Go"

Godrej Consumer Products to sell Indonesian food biz to

Ceat signs JV with a Bangladesh firm

3QFY2013 Result Review

Persistent (CMP: `559 / TP: Under review / Upside: -)

3QFY2013 Result Preview

JSW Steel (CPM: `864, TP:-, Upside :-)

KPIT (CMP: `112 / TP: `130 / Upside: 16%)

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

EBITDA margin (%)

Adani Ports & SEZ (28/01/2013)

EBITDA margin (%)

Bank of India (28/01/2013)

JSW Steel Consolidated (28/01/2013)

EBITDA margin (%)

Reliance Infrastructure (28/01/2013)

EBITDA margin (%)

Crompton Greaves Consolidated (29/01/2013)

EBITDA margin (%)

Dabur India Consolidated (29/01/2013)

EBITDA margin (%)

Glenmark Pharma Consolidated (29/01/2013)

EBITDA margin (%)

Idea Consolidated (29/01/2013)

EBITDA margin (%)

Sterlite Industries Consolidated (29/01/2013)

United Phosphorous Consolidated (29/01/2013)

EBITDA margin (%)

EBITDA margin (%)

Power Finance Corporation (30/01/2013)

Titan Industries (30/01/2013)

EBITDA margin (%)

Economic and Political News

Diageo-United Spirits deal clearance work in progress: CCI

January 28, 2013

February 01, 2013

February 02, 2013

Divi's Lab., Indian Bank

January 29, 2013

February 03, 2013

February 05, 2013

NHPC, UCO Bank, United Bank

February 06, 2013

MOIL, Apollo Tyres, Automotive Axle, J K Lakshmi Cements, Honeywell Automation

February 07, 2013

February 08, 2013

ONGC, Tata Power Co., Britannia, Hexaware, GIPCL, Dishman Pharma

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Global economic events release calendar

Country Event Description

January 29, 2013