Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of Earth's near-surface air and oceans

since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation. Global surface temperature increased
0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) between the start and the end of the 20th century.[1][A] The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that most of the observed
temperature increase since the middle of the 20th century was caused by increasing
concentrations of greenhouse gases resulting from human activity such as fossil fuel burning and
deforestation.[1] The IPCC also concludes that variations in natural phenomena such as solar
radiation and volcanism produced most of the warming from pre-industrial times to 1950 and
had a small cooling effect afterward.[2][3] These basic conclusions have been endorsed by more
than 40 scientific societies and academies of science,[B] including all of the national academies of
science of the major industrialized countries.[4]

Climate model projections summarized in the latest IPCC report indicate that the global surface
temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) during the 21st century.[1] The
uncertainty in this estimate arises from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse
gas concentrations and the use of differing estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions. Some
other uncertainties include how warming and related changes will vary from region to region
around the globe. Most studies focus on the period up to the year 2100. However, warming is
expected to continue beyond 2100 even if emissions stop, because of the large heat capacity of
the oceans and the long lifetime of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.[5][6]

An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and
pattern of precipitation, probably including expansion of subtropical deserts.[7] Warming will be
strongest in the Arctic and will be associated with continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and
sea ice. Other likely effects include increases in the intensity of extreme weather events, species
extinctions, and changes in agricultural yields.

Political and public debate continues regarding global warming, and what actions (if any) to take
in response. The available options are mitigation to reduce further emissions; adaptation to
reduce the damage caused by warming; and, more speculatively, geoengineering to reverse
global warming. Most national governments have signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol aimed
at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Contents
[hide]

 1 Temperature changes
 2 External forcing of climate
o 2.1 Greenhouse gases
o 2.2 Aerosols and soot
o 2.3 Solar variation
 3 Feedback
 4 Climate models
 5 Attributed and expected effects
 o 5.1 Environmental
o 5.2 Economic
 6 Responses to global warming
o 6.1 Mitigation
o 6.2 Adaptation
o 6.3 Geoengineering
 7 Debate and skepticism
 8 See also
 9 Notes
 10 References
 11 Further reading
 12 External links

Temperature changes
Main article: Temperature record

Two millennia of mean surface temperatures according to different reconstructions, each

smoothed on a decadal scale. The unsmoothed, annual value for 2004 is also plotted for
reference.

The most commonly discussed measure of global warming is the trend in globally averaged
temperature near the Earth's surface. Expressed as a linear trend, this temperature rose by
0.74 °C ± 0.18 °C over the period 1906–2005. The rate of warming over the last half of that
period was almost double that for the period as a whole (0.13 °C ± 0.03 °C per decade, versus
0.07 °C ± 0.02 °C per decade). The urban heat island effect is estimated to account for about
0.002 °C of warming per decade since 1900.[8] Temperatures in the lower troposphere have
increased between 0.12 and 0.22 °C (0.22 and 0.4 °F) per decade since 1979, according to
satellite temperature measurements. Temperature is believed to have been relatively stable over
the one or two thousand years before 1850, with regionally-varying fluctuations such as the
Medieval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age.

Based on estimates by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2005 was the warmest year
since reliable, widespread instrumental measurements became available in the late 1800s,
exceeding the previous record set in 1998 by a few hundredths of a degree.[9] Estimates prepared
by the World Meteorological Organization and the Climatic Research Unit concluded that 2005
was the second warmest year, behind 1998.[10][11] Temperatures in 1998 were unusually warm
because the strongest El Niño in the past century occurred during that year.[12] Global
temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlay long term trends and can
temporarily mask them. The relative stability in temperature from 1999 to 2009 is consistent
with such an episode.[13][14]

Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979, land temperatures have increased about
twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25 °C per decade against 0.13 °C per decade).[15] Ocean
temperatures increase more slowly than land temperatures because of the larger effective heat
capacity of the oceans and because the ocean loses more heat by evaporation.[16] The Northern
Hemisphere warms faster than the Southern Hemisphere because it has more land and because it
has extensive areas of seasonal snow and sea-ice cover subject to ice-albedo feedback. Although
more greenhouse gases are emitted in the Northern than Southern Hemisphere this does not
contribute to the difference in warming because the major greenhouse gases persist long enough
to mix between hemispheres.[17]

The thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects mean that climate
can take centuries or longer to adjust to changes in forcing. Climate commitment studies indicate
that even if greenhouse gases were stabilized at 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.5 °C
(0.9 °F) would still occur.[18]

External forcing of climate

External forcing refers to processes external to the climate system (though not necessarily
external to Earth) that influence climate. Climate responds to several types of external forcing,
such as radiative forcing due to changes in atmospheric composition (mainly greenhouse gas
concentrations), changes in solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions, and variations in Earth's orbit
around the Sun.[2] Attribution of recent climate change focuses on the first three types of forcing.
Orbital cycles vary slowly over tens of thousands of years and thus are too gradual to have
caused the temperature changes observed in the past century.

Greenhouse gases

Main articles: Radiative forcing and Greenhouse effect

Greenhouse effect schematic showing energy flows between space, the atmosphere, and earth's
surface. Energy exchanges are expressed in watts per square meter (W/m2).
 
Recent atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) increases. Monthly CO2 measurements display
seasonal oscillations in overall yearly uptrend; each year's maximum occurs during the Northern
Hemisphere's late spring, and declines during its growing season as plants remove some
atmospheric CO2.

The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by
gases in the atmosphere warm a planet's lower atmosphere and surface. It was discovered by
Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896.[19]
Existence of the greenhouse effect as such is not disputed, even by those who do not agree that
the recent temperature increase is attributable to human activity. The question is instead how the
strength of the greenhouse effect changes when human activity increases the concentrations of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Naturally occurring greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of about 33 °C (59 °F).[20][C]
The major greenhouse gases are water vapor, which causes about 36–70 percent of the
greenhouse effect; carbon dioxide (CO2), which causes 9–26 percent; methane (CH4), which
causes 4–9 percent; and ozone (O3), which causes 3–7 percent.[21][22][23] Clouds also affect the
radiation balance, but they are composed of liquid water or ice and so are considered separately
from water vapor and other gases.

Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone,
CFCs and nitrous oxide. The concentrations of CO2 and methane have increased by 36% and
148% respectively since 1750.[24] These levels are much higher than at any time during the last
650,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted from ice cores.[25][26][27] Less
direct geological evidence indicates that CO2 values this high were last seen about 20 million
years ago.[28] Fossil fuel burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in CO2 from
human activity over the past 20 years. Most of the rest is due to land-use change, particularly
deforestation.[29]

CO2 concentrations are continuing to rise due to burning of fossil fuels and land-use change. The
future rate of rise will depend on uncertain economic, sociological, technological, and natural
developments. Accordingly, the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios gives a wide range
of future CO2 scenarios, ranging from 541 to 970 ppm by the year 2100 (an increase by 90-250%
since 1750).[30] Fossil fuel reserves are sufficient to reach these levels and continue emissions
past 2100 if coal, tar sands or methane clathrates are extensively exploited.[31]

The destruction of stratospheric ozone by chlorofluorocarbons is sometimes mentioned in

relation to global warming. Although there are a few areas of linkage, the relationship between
the two is not strong. Reduction of stratospheric ozone has a cooling influence, but substantial
ozone depletion did not occur until the late 1970s.[32] Ozone in the troposphere (the lowest part of
the Earth's atmosphere) does contribute to surface warming.[33]

Aerosols and soot

Ship tracks over the Atlantic Ocean on the east coast of the United States. The climatic impacts
from aerosol forcing could have a large effect on climate through the indirect effect.

Global dimming, a gradual reduction in the amount of global direct irradiance at the Earth's
surface, has partially counteracted global warming from 1960 to the present.[34] The main cause
of this dimming is aerosols produced by volcanoes and pollutants. These aerosols exert a cooling
effect by increasing the reflection of incoming sunlight. James Hansen and colleagues have
proposed that the effects of the products of fossil fuel combustion—CO2 and aerosols—have
largely offset one another in recent decades, so that net warming has been driven mainly by non-
CO2 greenhouse gases.[35]

In addition to their direct effect by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, aerosols have
indirect effects on the radiation budget.[36] Sulfate aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei and
thus lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar
radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets.[37] This effect also causes
droplets to be of more uniform size, which reduces growth of raindrops and makes the cloud
more reflective to incoming sunlight.[38]

Soot may cool or warm, depending on whether it is airborne or deposited. Atmospheric soot
aerosols directly absorb solar radiation, which heats the atmosphere and cools the surface.
Regionally (but not globally), as much as 50% of surface warming due to greenhouse gases may
be masked by atmospheric brown clouds.[39] When deposited, especially on glaciers or on ice in
arctic regions, the lower surface albedo can also directly heat the surface.[40] The influences of
aerosols, including black carbon, are most pronounced in the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly
in Asia, while the effects of greenhouse gases are dominant in the extratropics and southern
hemisphere.[41]

Solar variation

Main article: Solar variation

Solar variation over the last thirty years.

Variations in solar output have been the cause of past climate changes,[42] but solar forcing is
generally thought to be too small to account for a significant part of global warming in recent
decades.[43][44]

Greenhouse gases and solar forcing affect temperatures in different ways. While both increased
solar activity and increased greenhouse gases are expected to warm the troposphere, an increase
in solar activity should warm the stratosphere while an increase in greenhouse gases should cool
the stratosphere.[2] Observations show that temperatures in the stratosphere have been steady or
cooling since 1979, when satellite measurements became available. Radiosonde (weather
balloon) data from the pre-satellite era show cooling since 1958, though there is greater
uncertainty in the early radiosonde record.[45]

A related hypothesis, proposed by Henrik Svensmark, is that magnetic activity of the sun deflects
cosmic rays that may influence the generation of cloud condensation nuclei and thereby affect
the climate.[46] Other research has found no relation between warming in recent decades and
cosmic rays.[47][48] A recent study concluded that the influence of cosmic rays on cloud cover is
about a factor of 100 lower than needed to explain the observed changes in clouds or to be a
significant contributor to present-day climate change.[49]

Feedback
Main article: Effects of global warming

Feedback is a process in which changing one quantity changes a second quantity, and the change
in the second quantity in turn changes the first. Positive feedback amplifies the change in the first
quantity while negative feedback reduces it. Feedback is important in the study of global
warming because it may amplify or diminish the effect of a particular process. The main positive
feedback in global warming is the tendency of warming to increase the amount of water vapor in
the atmosphere, which in turn leads to further warming. The main negative feedback is the
increase in radiative heat with increasing absolute temperature according to the Stefan–
Boltzmann law.

Water vapor feedback 

If the atmosphere is warmed, the saturation vapor pressure increases, and the amount of
water vapor in the atmosphere will tend to increase. Since water vapor is a greenhouse
gas, the increase in water vapor content makes the atmosphere warm further; this
 warming causes the atmosphere to hold still more water vapor (a positive feedback), and
so on until other processes stop the feedback loop. The result is a much larger greenhouse
effect than that due to CO2 alone. Although this feedback process causes an increase in
the absolute moisture content of the air, the relative humidity stays nearly constant or
even decreases slightly because the air is warmer.[50]
Cloud feedback 
Warming is expected to change the distribution and type of clouds. Seen from below,
clouds emit infrared radiation back to the surface, and so exert a warming effect; seen
from above, clouds reflect sunlight and emit infrared radiation to space, and so exert a
cooling effect. Whether the net effect is warming or cooling depends on details such as
the type and altitude of the cloud. These details were poorly observed before the advent
of satellite data and are difficult to represent in climate models.[50]
Lapse rate 
The atmosphere's temperature decreases with height in the troposphere. Since emission of
infrared radiation varies with temperature, longwave radiation escaping to space from the
relatively cold upper atmosphere is less than that emitted toward the ground from the
lower atmosphere. Thus, the strength of the greenhouse effect depends on the
atmosphere's rate of temperature decrease with height. Both theory and climate models
indicate that global warming will reduce the rate of temperature decrease with height,
producing a negative lapse rate feedback that weakens the greenhouse effect.
Measurements of the rate of temperature change with height are very sensitive to small
errors in observations, making it difficult to establish whether the models agree with
observations.[51]
Ice-albedo feedback 

Aerial photograph showing a section of sea ice. The lighter blue areas are melt ponds and
the darkest areas are open water, both have a lower albedo than the white sea ice. The
melting ice contributes to ice-albedo feedback.
When ice melts, land or open water takes its place. Both land and open water are on
average less reflective than ice and thus absorb more solar radiation. This causes more
warming, which in turn causes more melting, and this cycle continues.[52]
Arctic methane release 
Warming is also the triggering variable for the release of methane in the arctic.[53]
Methane released from thawing permafrost such as the frozen peat bogs in Siberia, and
from methane clathrate on the sea floor, creates a positive feedback.[54]
Reduced absorption of CO2 by the oceanic ecosystems 
Ocean ecosystems' ability to sequester carbon is expected to decline as the oceans warm.
This is because warming reduces the nutrient levels of the mesopelagic zone (about 200
to 1000 m deep), which limits the growth of diatoms in favor of smaller phytoplankton
that are poorer biological pumps of carbon.[55]
CO2 release from oceans 
Cooler water can absorb more CO2 than warmer water. As ocean temperatures rise some
of this CO2 will be released. This is one of the main reasons why atmospheric CO2 is
lower during an ice age and higher in warmer periods. There is a greater mass of CO2
contained in the oceans than there is in the atmosphere.
Gas release 
Release of gases of biological origin may be affected by global warming, but research
into such effects is at an early stage. Some of these gases, such as nitrous oxide released
from peat, directly affect climate.[56] Others, such as dimethyl sulfide released from
oceans, have indirect effects.[57]

Climate models
Main article: Global climate model

Calculations of global warming prepared in or before 2001 from a range of climate models under
the SRES A2 emissions scenario, which assumes no action is taken to reduce emissions and
regionally divided economic development.
 

The geographic distribution of surface warming during the 21st century calculated by the
HadCM3 climate model if a business as usual scenario is assumed for economic growth and
greenhouse gas emissions. In this figure, the globally averaged warming corresponds to 3.0 °C
(5.4 °F).

The main tools for projecting future climate changes are mathematical models based on physical
principles including fluid dynamics, thermodynamics and radiative transfer. Although they
attempt to include as many processes as possible, simplifications of the actual climate system are
inevitable because of the constraints of available computer power and limitations in knowledge
of the climate system. All modern climate models are in fact combinations of models for
different parts of the Earth. These include an atmospheric model for air movement, temperature,
clouds, and other atmospheric properties; an ocean model that predicts temperature, salt content,
and circulation of ocean waters; models for ice cover on land and sea; and a model of heat and
moisture transfer from soil and vegetation to the atmosphere. Some models also include
treatments of chemical and biological processes.[58] Warming due to increasing levels of
greenhouse gases is not an assumption of the models; rather, it is an end result from the
interaction of greenhouse gases with radiative transfer and other physical processes in the
models.[59] Although much of the variation in model outcomes depends on the greenhouse gas
emissions used as inputs, the temperature effect of a specific greenhouse gas concentration
(climate sensitivity) varies depending on the model used. The representation of clouds is one of
the main sources of uncertainty in present-generation models.[60]

Global climate model projections of future climate most often have used estimates of greenhouse
gas emissions from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). In addition to
human-caused emissions, some models also include a simulation of the carbon cycle; this
generally shows a positive feedback, though this response is uncertain. Some observational
studies also show a positive feedback.[61][62][63] Including uncertainties in future greenhouse gas
concentrations and climate sensitivity, the IPCC anticipates a warming of 1.1 °C to 6.4 °C
(2.0 °F to 11.5 °F) by the end of the 21st century, relative to 1980–1999.[1]

Models are also used to help investigate the causes of recent climate change by comparing the
observed changes to those that the models project from various natural and human-derived
causes. Although these models do not unambiguously attribute the warming that occurred from
approximately 1910 to 1945 to either natural variation or human effects, they do indicate that the
warming since 1970 is dominated by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.[2]

The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate current or past
climates.[64] Current climate models produce a good match to observations of global temperature
changes over the last century, but do not simulate all aspects of climate.[29] Not all effects of
global warming are accurately predicted by the climate models used by the IPCC. For example,
observed Arctic shrinkage has been faster than that predicted.[65]

Attributed and expected effects

Environmental

Main articles: Effects of global warming and Regional effects of global warming
Sparse records indicate that glaciers have been retreating since the early 1800s. In the 1950s
measurements began that allow the monitoring of glacial mass balance, reported to the WGMS
and the NSIDC.

It is usually impossible to connect specific weather events to global warming. Instead, global
warming is expected to cause changes in the overall distribution and intensity of events, such as
changes to the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation. Broader effects are expected to
include glacial retreat, Arctic shrinkage, and worldwide sea level rise. Some effects on both the
natural environment and human life are, at least in part, already being attributed to global
warming. A 2001 report by the IPCC suggests that glacier retreat, ice shelf disruption such as
that of the Larsen Ice Shelf, sea level rise, changes in rainfall patterns, and increased intensity
and frequency of extreme weather events are attributable in part to global warming.[66] Other
expected effects include water scarcity in some regions and increased precipitation in others,
changes in mountain snowpack, and some adverse health effects from warmer temperatures.[67]

Social and economic effects of global warming may be exacerbated by growing population
densities in affected areas. Temperate regions are projected to experience some benefits, such as
fewer cold-related deaths.[68] A summary of probable effects and recent understanding can be
found in the report made for the IPCC Third Assessment Report by Working Group II.[66] The
newer IPCC Fourth Assessment Report summary reports that there is observational evidence for
an increase in intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic Ocean since about 1970, in
correlation with the increase in sea surface temperature (see Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation),
but that the detection of long-term trends is complicated by the quality of records prior to routine
satellite observations. The summary also states that there is no clear trend in the annual
worldwide number of tropical cyclones.[1]

Additional anticipated effects include sea level rise of 0.18 to 0.59 meters (0.59 to 1.9 ft) in
2090–2100 relative to 1980–1999,[1] new trade routes resulting from arctic shrinkage,[69] possible
thermohaline circulation slowing, increasingly intense (but less frequent) hurricanes and extreme
weather events,[70] reductions in the ozone layer, changes in agriculture yields, changes in the
range of climate-dependent disease vectors,[71] which have been linked to increases in the
prevalence of malaria and dengue fever,[72] and ocean oxygen depletion.[73] Increased atmospheric
CO2 increases the amount of CO2 dissolved in the oceans.[74] CO2 dissolved in the ocean reacts
with water to form carbonic acid, resulting in ocean acidification. Ocean surface pH is estimated
to have decreased from 8.25 near the beginning of the industrial era to 8.14 by 2004,[75] and is
projected to decrease by a further 0.14 to 0.5 units by 2100 as the ocean absorbs more CO2.[1][76]
Heat and carbon dioxide trapped in the oceans may still take hundreds of years to be re-emitted,
even after greenhouse gas emissions are eventually reduced.[6] Since organisms and ecosystems
are adapted to a narrow range of pH, this raises extinction concerns and disruptions in food webs.
[77]
One study predicts 18% to 35% of a sample of 1,103 animal and plant species would be
extinct by 2050, based on future climate projections.[78] However, few mechanistic studies have
documented extinctions due to recent climate change,[79] and one study suggests that projected
rates of extinction are uncertain.[80]

Economic
Main articles: Economics of global warming and Low-carbon economy

Projected temperature increase for a range of stabilization scenarios (the colored bands). The
black line in middle of the shaded area indicates 'best estimates'; the red and the blue lines the
likely limits. From IPCC AR4.

The IPCC reports the aggregate net economic costs of damages from climate change globally
(discounted to the specified year). In 2005, the average social cost of carbon from 100 peer-
reviewed estimates is US$12 per tonne of CO2, but range -$3 to $95/tCO2. The IPCC report gives
these cost estimates with the caveats, "Aggregate estimates of costs mask significant differences
in impacts across sectors, regions and populations and very likely underestimate damage costs
because they cannot include many non-quantifiable impacts."[81]

One widely publicized report on potential economic impact is the Stern Review, written by Sir
Nicholas Stern. It suggests that extreme weather might reduce global gross domestic product by
up to one percent, and that in a worst-case scenario global per capita consumption could fall by
the equivalent of 20 percent.[82] The response to the Stern Review was mixed. The Review's
methodology, advocacy and conclusions were criticized by several economists, including
Richard Tol, Gary Yohe,[83] Robert Mendelsohn[84] and William Nordhaus.[85] Economists that
have generally supported the Review include Terry Barker,[86] William Cline,[87] and Frank
Ackerman.[88] According to Barker, the costs of mitigating climate change are 'insignificant'
relative to the risks of unmitigated climate change.[89]

According to United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), economic sectors likely to face
difficulties related to climate change include banks, agriculture, transport and others.[90]
Developing countries dependent upon agriculture will be particularly harmed by global warming.
[91]

Responses to global warming

The broad agreement among climate scientists that global temperatures will continue to increase
has led some nations, states, corporations and individuals to implement responses. These
responses to global warming can be divided into mitigation of the causes and effects of global
warming, adaptation to the changing global environment, and geoengineering to reverse global
warming.

Mitigation

Main article: Mitigation of global warming

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is an approach to mitigation. Emissions may be sequestered
from fossil fuel power plants, or removed during processing in hydrogen production. When used
on plants, it is known as bio-energy with carbon capture and storage.

Mitigation of global warming is accomplished through reductions in the rate of anthropogenic

greenhouse gas release. The world's primary international agreement on reducing greenhouse gas
emissions, the Kyoto Protocol, now covers more than 160 countries and over 55 percent of
global greenhouse gas emissions.[92] As of June 2009, only the United States, historically the
world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, has refused to ratify the treaty. The treaty expires in
2012. International talks began in May 2007 on a future treaty to succeed the current one.[93] The
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference met in Copenhagen in December 2009 to
agree on a framework for climate change mitigation.[94] No binding agreement was made.

There has also been business action on climate change, including efforts to improve energy
efficiency and limited moves towards use of alternative fuels. In January 2005 the European
Union introduced its European Union Emission Trading Scheme, through which companies in
conjunction with government agree to cap their emissions or to purchase credits from those
below their allowances. Australia announced its Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme in 2008.
United States President Barack Obama has announced plans to introduce an economy-wide cap
and trade scheme.[95]

The IPCC's Working Group III is responsible for crafting reports on mitigation of global
warming and the costs and benefits of different approaches. The 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report concludes that no one technology or sector can be completely responsible for mitigating
future warming. They find there are key practices and technologies in various sectors, such as
energy supply, transportation, industry, and agriculture that should be implemented to reduced
global emissions. They estimate that stabilization of carbon dioxide equivalent between 445 and
710 ppm by 2030 will result in between a 0.6 percent increase and three percent decrease in
global gross domestic product.[96]

Adaptation

Main article: Adaptation to global warming

A wide variety of measures have been suggested for adaptation to global warming, from the
installation of air-conditioning equipment, to major infrastructure projects, such as abandoning
settlements threatened by sea level rise.
Measures including water conservation,[97] water rationing, adaptive agricultural practices,[98]
construction of flood defenses,[99] changes to medical care,[100] and interventions to protect
threatened species[101] have all been suggested. A wide-ranging study of the possible
opportunities for adaptation of infrastructure has been published by the Institute of Mechanical
Engineers.[102]

Geoengineering

Main article: Geoengineering

Geoengineering is the concept of planetary engineering applied to Earth: The deliberate

modification of Earth's natural environment on a large scale to suit human needs.[103] An example
is greenhouse gas remediation, which removes greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, usually
through carbon sequestration techniques such as carbon dioxide air capture.[104] Solar radiation
management reduces absorbed solar radiation, such as by the addition of stratospheric sulfur
aerosols[105] or cool roof techniques.[106] No geoengineering projects have been initiated, and
detailed study has largely been the work of isolated scientists; but various significant players
have recently suggested that beginning to study them at a higher level of coordination and
urgency is warranted in the event of an emergency. Their different externalities and other costs
are seen as major issues, and the idea or concern that one country could act unilaterally has also
been raised.[107][108][109]

Debate and skepticism

Main articles: Global warming controversy and Politics of global warming
See also: Scientific opinion on climate change, Climate change consensus, and Climate change
denial

Per capita greenhouse gas emissions in 2000, including land-use change.

 

Per country greenhouse gas emissions in 2000, including land-use change.

Increased publicity of the scientific findings surrounding global warming has resulted in political
and economic debate.[110] Poor regions, particularly Africa, appear at greatest risk from the
projected effects of global warming, while their emissions have been small compared to the
developed world.[111] The exemption of developing countries from Kyoto Protocol restrictions
has been used to justify non-ratification by the U.S. and a previous Australian Government.[112]
(Australia has since ratified the Kyoto protocol.)[113] Another point of contention is the degree to
which emerging economies such as India and China should be expected to constrain their
emissions.[114] The U.S. contends that if it must bear the cost of reducing emissions, then China
should do the same[115][116] since China's gross national CO2 emissions now exceed those of the
U.S.[117][118][119] China has contended that it is less obligated to reduce emissions since its per
capita responsibility and per capita emissions are less that of the U.S.[120] India, also exempt, has
made similar contentions.[121]

In 2007–2008 Gallup Polls surveyed 127 countries. Over a third of the world's population was
unaware of global warming, with developing countries less aware than developed, and Africa the
least aware. Of those aware, Latin America leads in belief that temperature changes are a result
of human activities while Africa, parts of Asia and the Middle East, and a few countries from the
Former Soviet Union lead in the opposite belief.[122] In the Western world, opinions over the
concept and the appropriate responses are divided. Nick Pidgeon of Cardiff University finds that
"results show the different stages of engagement about global warming on each side of the
Atlantic"; where Europe debates the appropriate responses while the United States debates
whether climate change is happening.[123]

Debates weigh the benefits of limiting industrial emissions of greenhouse gases against the costs
that such changes would entail.[96] Using economic incentives, alternative and renewable energy
have been promoted to reduce emissions while building infrastructure.[124][125] Business-centered
organizations such as the Competitive Enterprise Institute, conservative commentators, and
companies such as ExxonMobil have downplayed IPCC climate change scenarios, funded
scientists who disagree with the scientific consensus, and provided their own projections of the
economic cost of stricter controls.[126][127][128][129] Environmental organizations and public figures
have emphasized changes in the current climate and the risks they entail, while promoting
adaptation to changes in infrastructural needs and emissions reductions.[130] Some fossil fuel
companies have scaled back their efforts in recent years,[131] or called for policies to reduce
global warming.[132] Many studies link population growth with emissions and the effect of
climate change.[133][134][135]

Some global warming skeptics in the science or political communities dispute all or some of the
global warming scientific consensus, questioning whether global warming is actually occurring,
whether human activity has contributed significantly to the warming, and the magnitude of the
threat posed by global warming. Prominent global warming skeptics include Richard Lindzen,
Fred Singer, Patrick Michaels, John Christy, Stephen McIntyre and Robert Balling.

See also
Global warming portal

 Glossary of climate change

 Index of climate change articles
  History of climate change science

Notes
A. ^ Increase is for years 1905 to 2005. Global surface temperature is defined in the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report as the average of near-surface air temperature over land and sea surface
temperature. These error bounds are constructed with a 90% uncertainty interval.
B. ^ The 2001 joint statement was signed by the national academies of science of Australia,
Belgium, Brazil, Canada, the Caribbean, the People's Republic of China, France, Germany, India,
Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Malaysia, New Zealand, Sweden, and the UK. The 2005 statement
added Japan, Russia, and the U.S. The 2007 statement added Mexico and South Africa. The
Network of African Science Academies, and the Polish Academy of Sciences have issued
separate statements. Professional scientific societies include American Astronomical Society,
American Chemical Society, American Geophysical Union, American Institute of Physics,
American Meteorological Society, American Physical Society, American Quaternary
Association, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, Canadian Foundation for
Climate and Atmospheric Sciences, Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society,
European Academy of Sciences and Arts, European Geosciences Union, European Science
Foundation, Geological Society of America, Geological Society of Australia, Geological Society
of London-Stratigraphy Commission, InterAcademy Council, International Union of Geodesy
and Geophysics, International Union for Quaternary Research, National Association of
Geoscience Teachers, National Research Council (US), Royal Meteorological Society, and World
Meteorological Organization.
C. ^ Note that the greenhouse effect produces an average worldwide temperature increase of about
33 °C (59 °F) compared to black body predictions without the greenhouse effect, not an average
surface temperature of 33 °C (91 °F). The average worldwide surface temperature is about
14 °C (57 °F).