Solutions of Selected Problems From Probability Essentials, Second Edition
Solutions of Selected Problems From Probability Essentials, Second Edition
Solutions of Selected Problems From Probability Essentials, Second Edition
in 2 .
Therefore 2 is a -algebra.
2.2 We check if H = A G has the three properties of a -algebra:
1. G A hence A G .
2. If B A G then B G A. This implies that B c G A since each
G is a -algebra. So B c A G .
S
3. Let (An )n1 be a sequence S
in H. Since each An G ,
n=1 An is in G since G is a
c
2.3 a. Let x (
n=1 An ) . Then x An for all n, hence x n=1 An . So (n=1 An )
c
c
c
(n=1 An ) = n=1 An .
c c
c
b. By part-a
n=1 An = (n=1 An ) , hence (n=1 An ) = n=1 An .
P (A Bn )
P (A B)
= P (A|B).
P (Bn )
P (B)
c.
P (An Bn )
P (A B)
= P (A|B)
P (Bn )
P (B)
since An Bn A B and Bn B.
P (An |Bn ) =
3.11 Let B = {x1 , x2 , . . . , xb } and R = {y1 , y2 , . . . , yr } be the sets of b blue balls and r
red balls respectively. Let B 0 = {xb+1 , xb+2 , . . . , xb+d } and R0 = {yr+1 , yr+2 , . . . , yr+d } be
the sets of d-new blue balls and d-new red balls respectively. Then we can write down the
sample space as
= {(a, b) : (a B and b B B 0 R) or (a R and b R R0 B)}.
Clearly card() = b(b + d + r) + r(b + d + r) = (b + r)(b + d + r). Now we can define a
probability measure P on 2 by
P (A) =
card(A)
.
card()
a. Let
A = { second ball drawn is blue}
= {(a, b) : a B, b B B 0 } {(a, b) : a R, b B}
card(A) = b(b + d) + rb = b(b + d + r), hence P (A) =
b. Let
b
.
b+r
card(A B)
b+d
P (A B)
=
=
.
P (A)
card(A)
b+d+r
2
3.17 We will use the inequality 1 x > ex for x > 0, which is obtained by taking Taylors
expansion of ex around 0.
P ((A1 . . . An )c ) = P (Ac1 . . . Acn )
= (1 P (A1 )) . . . (1 P (An ))
exp(P (A1 )) . . . exp(P (An )) = exp(
n
X
i=1
P (Ai ))
n
P (k successes) =
1
2
n
n
= Can b1,n . . . bk,n dn
where
nj+1
k
an = (1 )n bj,n =
dn = (1 )k
k!
n
n
n
1 j and dn 1 as n . Observe that
C=
It is clear that bj,n
log((1
n
2 1
) ) = n( 2 2 ) for some (1 n , 1)
n
n n
2 1
|Error| = |en log(1 n ) e | |n log(1 ) | = n 2 2 p
n
n
Hence in order to have a good approximation we need n large and p small as well as to
be of moderate size.
= 2
1
X
( i)
i=1
e k
k!
= 2e
1
X
k
k+1
)
(
k!
(k 1)!
i=0
= 2e
.
(k 1)!
P
(A
)
=
P
(
A
nk
n=1 nk ) 1 .
k=1
7.2 Let An = {A : P (A ) > 1/n}. An is a finite set P
otherwise we can pick disjoint
7.18 Let F be as given. It is clear that F is a nondecreasing function. For x < 0 and x 1
right continuity of F is clear. For any 0 < x < 1 let i be such that i1+1 x < i1 . If
xn x then there exists N such that i1+1 xn < i1 for every n N . Hence F (xn ) = F (x)
for every n N which implies that F is right continuous P
at x. For x = 0 we have that
1
F (0) = 0. Note that for any there exists N such that
i=N 2i < . So for all x s.t.
|x| N1 we have that F (x) . Hence F (0+) = 0. This proves the right continuity of F
P
1
for all x. We also have that F () =
i=1 2i = 1 and F () = 0 so F is a distribution
function of a probability on R.
P
1
1
a. P ([1, )) = F () F (1) = 1
n=2 = 1 2 = 2 .
P
1
1
1
b. P ([ 10 , )) = F () F ( 10 ) = 1 n=11 2i = 1 210 .
c P ({0}) = F (0) F (0) = 0. P
1
1
d. P ([0, 21 )) = F ( 21 ) F (0) =
n=3 2i 0 = 4 .
e. P ((, 0)) = F (0) = 0.
f. P ((0, )) = 1 F (0) = 1.
6
|X|1{X>M } dP < by
M
9.5 It is clear that 0 Q(A) 1 and Q() = 1 since X is nonnegative and E[X] = 1. Let
A1 , A2 , . . . be disjoint. Then
Q(
n=1 An )
X
X
= E[X1
] = E[
X1An ] =
E[X1An ]
n=1 An
n=1
n=1
where the last equality follows from the monotone convergence theorem. Hence Q(
n=1 An ) =
P
Q(A
).
Therefore
Q
is
a
probability
measure.
n
n=1
9.6 If P (A) = 0 then X1A = 0 a.s. Hence Q(A) = E[X1A ] = 0. Now assume P is the
uniform distribution on [0, 1]. Let X(x) = 21[0,1/2] (x). Corresponding measure Q assigns
zero measure to (1/2, 1], however P ((1/2, 1]) = 1/2 6= 0.
9.7 Lets prove this first for simple functions, i.e. let Y be of the form
Y =
n
X
i=1
ci 1Ai
n
X
ci Q(Ai ) =
i=1
n
X
ci E[X1Ai ] = EP [XY ]
i=1
where the last equality follows from the monotone convergence theorem. For general Y
L1 (Q) we have that EQ [Y ] = EQ [Y + ] EQ [Y ] = EP [(XY )+ ] EQ [(XY ) ] = EP [XY ].
9.8 a. Note that X1 X = 1 a.s. since P (X > 0) = 1. By problem 9.7 EQ [ X1 ] = EP [ X1 X] = 1.
So X1 is Q-integrable.
b. R : A R, R(A) = EQ [ X1 1A ] is a probability measure since X1 is non-negative and
EQ [ X1 ] = 1. Also R(A) = EQ [ X1 1A ] = EP [ X1 X1A ] = P (A). So R = P .
9.9 Since P (A) = EQ [ X1 1A ] we have that Q(A) = 0 P (A) = 0. Now combining the
results of the previous problems we can easily observe that Q(A) = 0 P (A) = 0 iff
P (X > 0) = 1.
9.17. Let
((x )b + )2
.
2 (1 + b2 )2
Observe that {X + b} {g(X) 1}. So
g(x) =
E[g(X)]
1
where the last inequality follows from Markovs inequality. Since E[g(X)] =
get that
1
.
P ({X + b})
1 + b2
9.19
xP ({X > x}) E[X1{ X > x}]
Z
z2
z
e 2 dz
=
2
x
x2
e 2
=
2
Hence
x2
e 2
P ({X > x})
x 2
9
2 (1+b2 )
2 (1+b2 )2
we
.
9.21 h(t + s) = P ({X > t + s}) = P ({X > t + s, X > s}) = P ({X > t + s|X > s})P ({X >
1
m
s}) = h(t)h(s) for all t, s > 0. Note that this gives h( n1 ) = h(1) n and h( m
) = h(1) n . So
n
for all rational r we have that h(r) = exp (log(h(1))r). Since h is right continuous this
gives h(x) = exp(log(h(1))x) for all x > 0. Hence X has exponential distribution with
parameter log h(1).
10
ki)P
(Y
=
i)
=
i=1
i=1 2i 2ki 1 = 2k+1 1 .
11
< y 0
0
1y
1
0<y1
fY (y) =
2 fX ( y )
y
0
1y<
11.15 Let G(u) = inf{x : F (x) u}. We would like to show {u : G(u) > y} = {u :
F (Y ) < u}. Let u be such that G(u) > y. Then F (y) < u by definition of G. Hence
{u : G(u) > y} {u : F (Y ) < u}. Now let u be such that F (y) < u. Then y < x for any x
such that F (x) u by monotonicity of F . Now by right continuity and the monotonicity of
F we have that F (G(u)) = inf F (x)u F (x) u. Then by the previous statement y < G(u).
So {u : G(u) > y} = {u : F (Y ) < u}. Now P {G(U ) > y} = P {U > F (y)} = 1 F (y) so
G(U ) has the desired distribution. Remark:We only assumed the right continuity
of F .
12
XY
2
12.6 Let Z = ( 1Y )Y ( XY
)X. Then Z2 = ( 12 )Y2 ( XY
2 )X 2( )Cov(X, Y ) =
X
X Y
Y
X
1 2XY . Note that XY = 1 implies Z2 = 0 which implies Z = c a.s. for some constant
c. In this case X = YXXY (Y c) hence X is an affine function of Y .
p
12.11 Consider the mapping g(x, y) = ( x2 + y 2 , arctan( xy )). Let S0 = {(x, y) : y = 0},
S1 = {(x, y) : y > 0}, S2 = {(x, y) : y < 0}. Note that 2i=0 Si = R2 and m2 (S0 ) = 0.
Also for i = 1, 2 g : Si R2 is injective and continuously differentiable. Corresponding
inverses are given by g11 (z, w) = (z sin w, z cos w) and g21 (z, w) = (z sin w, z cos w). In
both cases we have that |Jgi1 (z, w)| = z hence by Corollary 12.1 the density of (Z, W ) is
given by
1 z2
1 z2
2 z +
fZ,W (z, w) = (
e
e 2 z)1( 2 , 2 ) (w)1(0,) (z)
2 2
2 2
1
z z2
=
1( 2 , 2 ) (w) 2 e 2 1(0,) (z)
as desired.
12.12 Let P be the set of all permutations of {1, . . . , n}. For any P let X be the
corresponding permutation of X, i.e. Xk = Xk . Observe that
P (X1 x1 , . . . , Xn xn ) = F (x1 ) . . . F (Xn )
hence the law of X and X coincide on a system generating B n therefore they are equal.
Now let 0 = {(x1 , . . . , xn ) Rn : x1 < x2 < . . . < xn }. Since Xi are i.i.d and have
continuous distribution PX (0 ) = 1. Observe that
P {Y1 y1 , . . . , Yn yn } = P (P {X1 y1 , . . . , Xn yn } 0 )
Note that {X1 y1 , . . . , Xn yn } 0 , P are disjoint and P (0 = 1) hence
X
P {X1 y1 , . . . , Xn yn }
P {Y1 y1 , . . . , Yn yn } =
P
13
(0)
=
X (0)Yn (0)
X
Y
n
n+1
dx3
dx3 n+1
d
d2
d
d2
+ 3 2 Xn+1 (0) Yn (0) + 3 Xn+1 (0) 2 Yn (0)
dx
dx
dx
dx
3
d
+ Xn+1 (0) 3 Yn (0)
dx
d3
d3
=
Y (0)
(0)
+
X
dx3 n+1
dx3 n
!
n
X
= i E[(Xn+1 )3 ] +
E[(Xi )3 ]
i=1
d
where we used the fact that dx
Xn+1 (0) = iE(Xn+1 ) = 0 and
P
n+1
3
3
E[(Yn+1 ) ] = i=1 E[(Xi ) ] hence the induction is complete.
n
X
j j (A)
j=1
n
X
j = 1.
j=1
n
X
j=1
n
X
j j (
i=1 Ai )
j
j=1
i=1
n
XX
j j (Ai )
i=1 j=1
j (Ai )
X
i=1
14
(Ai )
d
(0)
dx Yn
= iE(Yn ) = 0. So
R
Hence
Pn Ris countably additive therefore it is a probability mesure. Note that 1A d(dx) =
1A (x)dj (dx) by definition of . Now by linearity and monotone convergence
j=1 j
R
R
P
theorem for a non-negative Borel function f we have that f (x)(dx) = nj=1 j f (x)dj (dx).
R
R
P
Extending this to integrable f we have that (u) = eiux (dx) = nj=1 j eiux dj (dx) =
Pn
j (u).
j=1 j
14.11 Let be the double exponential distribution, 1 be the distribution of Y and 2 be
the distribution of Y
R where Y is anRexponential r.v. with parameter = 1. Then we
have that (A) = 21 A(0,) ex dx + 21 A(,0) ex dx = 12 1 (A) + 21 2 (A). By the previous
1
1
1
exercise we have that (u) = 21
1 (u) + 12
2 (u) = 12 ( 1iu
+ 1+iu
) = 1+u
2.
n
d
s /2
14.15. Note that E{X n } = (i)n dx
. Note that
n X (0). Since X N (0, 1) X (s) = e
s2 /2
we can get the derivatives of any order of e
at 0 simply by taking Taylors expansion
x
of e :
X
(s2 /2)n
2
es /2 =
n!
i=0
X
1 (i)2n (2n)! 2n
s
=
n n!
2n!
2
i=0
n
2k
d
d
2k
hence E{X n } = (i)n dx
} = (i)2k dx
n X (0) = 0 for n odd. For n = 2k E{X
2k X (0) =
2k (2k)!
(i)
(2k)!
(i)2k 2k k! = 2k k! as desired.
15
16
X
Y
Y
X
1
X
Q1 =
X Y (1 2 ) XY
Substituting this in formula 16.5 we get that
(
2
1
x X
2(1 2 )
X
!)
2
2(x X )(y Y )
y Y
+
.
X Y
Y
1
exp
f(X,Y ) (x, y) =
2X Y (1 2 )
16.6 By Theorem 16.2 there exists a multivariate normal r.v. Y with E(Y ) = 0 and a
diagonal covariance matrix s.t. X = AY where A is an orthogonal matrix. Since
Q = AA and det(Q) > 0 the diagonal entries of are strictly positive hence we can
of B(X ) is given by
define B = 1/2 A . Now the covariance matrix Q
= 1/2 A AA A1/2
Q
= I
So B(X ) is standard normal.
16.17 We know that as in Exercise 16.6 if B = 1/2 A where A is the orthogonal matrix s.t.
Q = AA then B(X ) is standard normal. Note that this gives (X ) Q1 (X ) =
(X ) B B(X ) which has chi-square distribution with n degrees of freedom.
17
n2 2
n2 2
Sn2
|
n2
P 1
1
) n2
.
Since
2
i=1 n2 2 < by
c
Sn2
S
Borel Cantelli Theorem P (lim supn {| n2 | }) = 0. Let 0 = m=1 lim supn {| nn22 | m1 } .
17.4 Note that Chebyshevs inequality gives P (|
Then P (0 ) = 1. Now lets pick w 0 . For any there exists m s.t. m1 and
S
S
w (lim supn {| nn22 | m1 })c . Hence there are finitely many n s.t. | nn22 | m1 which implies
S
S (w)
that there exists N (w) s.t. | nn22 | m1 for every n N (w). Hence nn2 2 0. Since
P (0 ) = 1 we have almost sure convergence.
17.12 Y < a.s. which follows by Exercise 17.11 since Xn < and X < a.s. Let
1
Z = 1c 1+Y
. Observe that Z > 0 a.s. and EP (Z) = 1. Therefore as in Exercise 9.8
Q(A) = EP (Z1A ) defines a probability measure and EQ (|Xn X|) = EP (Z|Xn X|).
Note that Z|Xn X| 1 a.s. and Xn X a.s. by hypothesis, hence by dominated
convergence theorem EQ (|Xn X|) = EP (Z|Xn X|) 0, i.e. Xn tends to X in L1 with
respect to Q.
17.14 First observe that |E(Xn2 ) E(X 2 )| E(|Xn2 X 2 |). Since |Xn2 X 2 | (Xn X)2 +
2|X||Xn X| we get that |E(Xn2 ) E(X 2 )| E((Xn X)2 ) + 2E(|X||Xn X|). Note
that first term goes to 0 since Xn tends to X in p
L2 . Applying Cauchy Schwarz inequality
to the second term we get E(|X||Xn X|) E(X 2 )E(|Xn X|2 ), hence the second
term also goes to 0 as n . Now we can conclude E(Xn2 ) E(X 2 ).
17.15 For any > 0 P ({|X| c+}) P ({|Xn | c, |Xn X| }) 1 as n . Hence
1
P ({|X| c + }) = 1. Since {X c} =
m=1 {X c + m } we get that P {X c} = 1.
Now we have that E(|Xn X|) = E(|Xn X|1{|Xn X|} ) + E(|Xn X|1{|Xn X|>} )
+ 2c(P {|Xn X| > }), hence choosing n large we can make E(|Xn X|) arbitrarily
small, so Xn tends to X in L1 .
18
18.8 Note that Yn (u) = ni=1 Xi ( nu ) = ni=1 e n = e|u| , hence Yn is also Cauchy with
= 0 and = 1 which is independent of n, hence trivially Yn converges in distribution
to a Cauchy distributed r.v. with = 0 and = 1. However Yn does not converge to
any r.v. in probability. To see this, suppose there exists Y s.t. P (|Yn Y | > ) 0.
Note that P (|Yn Ym | > ) P (|Yn Y | > 2 ) + P (|Ym Y | > 2 ). If we let m = 2n,
P
P
1
|Yn Ym | = 12 | n1 ni=1 Xi n1 2n
i=n+1 Xi | which is equal in distribution to 2 |U W | where
U and W are independent Cauchy r.v.s with = 0 and = 1. Hence P (|Yn Ym | > 2 )
does not depend on n and does not converge to 0 if we let m = 2n and n which is a
contradiction since we assumed the right hand side converges to 0.
18.16 Define fm as the following sequence of functions:
x2
(N m1 )x (N m1 )N
fm (x) =
(N m1 )x + (N m1 )N
if |x| N m1
if x N m1
if x N + m1
otherwise
Note that each fm is continuous and bounded. Also fm (x) 1(N,N ) (x)x2 for every x R.
Hence
Z N
Z
2
x F (dx) = lim
fm (x)F (dx)
m
fm (x)Fn (dx)
RN
R
by weak convergence. Since fm (x)Fn (dx) N x2 Fn (dx) it follows that
Z N
Z N
Z N
2
2
x F (dx) lim lim sup
x Fn (dx) = lim sup
x2 Fn (dx)
N
as desired.
18.17 Following the hint, suppose there exists a continuity point y of F such that
lim Fn (y) 6= F (y)
Then there exist > 0 and a subsequence (nk )k1 s.t. Fnk (y) F (y) < for all k, or
Fnk (y) F (y) > for all k. Suppose Fnk (y) F (y) < for all k, observe that for x y,
Fnk (x) F (x) Fnk (y) F (x) = Fnk (y) F (y) + (F (y) F (x)) < + (F (y) F (x)).
Since f is continuous at y there exists an interval [y1 , y) s.t. |(F (y) F (x))| < 2 , hence
Fnk (x) F (x) < 2 for all x [y1 , y). Now suppose Fnk (y) F (y) > , then for x y,
Fnk (x) F (x) Fnk (y) F (x) = Fnk (y) F (y) + (F (y) F (x)) > + (F (y) F (x)).
19
Now we can find an interval (y, y1 ] s.t. |(F (y) F (x))| < 2 which gives Fnk (x) F (x) >
for all x (y, y1 ]. Note that both cases would yield
Z
|Fnk (x) F (x)|r dx > |y1 y|
2
inf ty
which is a contradiction to the assumption
Z
|Fn (x) F (x)|r dx = 0.
lim
n
inf ty
20
2
u2 2
2
19.3 Note that Xn +Yn (u) = Xn (u)Yn (u) X (u)Y (u) = X+Y (u). Therefore Xn +
Yn X + Y
21
nE(X 2 )
n)
for i 6= j. Now P ( |Snn | ) E(S
= 2 n2i nc 2 as desired.
2 n2
b. From part (a) it is clear that n1 Sn converges to 0 in probability. Also E(( n1 Sn )2 ) =
E(Xi2
n
20.5 Note that Zn Z implies that Zn (u) Z (u) uniformly on compact subset of R.
(See Remark 19.1). For any u, we can pick n > N s.t. un < M , supx[M,M ] |Zn (x)
Z (x)| < and |varphiZ ( un ) Z (0)| < . This gives us
u
u
u
u
|Zn ( ) Z (0)| = |Zn ( ) Z ( )| + |Z ( ) Z (0)| 2
n
n
n
n
So Zn (u) = Zn ( un ) converges to Z (0) = 1 for every u. Therefore
n
Zn
0 by continuity
Zn
theorem. We also have by the strong law of large numbers that
E(Xj ) . This
n
implies E(Xj ) = 0, hence the assertion follows by strong law of large numbers.
22
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