Roundtable on CEMENT INDUSTRY

--- A Synopsis of Deliberations

(The opinions in this publication are those that have been expressed by the participants in the Roundtable deliberation. These do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institute)

Research Department

Institute of Cost and Management Accountants of Pakistan

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CONTENTS
Background Theme Participants A Synopsis of Deliberations
Introductory Remarks - Mr. M. H. Asif, FCMA Presentation by Cement Industry/ Association Mr. Badruddin Fakhri, FCMA Mr. Irfan Amanullah, FCMA Presentation by Regulating Authority - MCA Mrs. Kishwar Khan Presentation by Public Cement Research Institute - TUSDEC Mr. Munir Ahmed Rana Presentation by Trade Development Authority - TDAP Mr. Ahmed Saquib, ACMA Mr. Asad Zahoor Presentation by Public Tax Collection Authority - CBR Mr. Mukhtar Ahmed Gondal Summing up of Deliberations Mr. Muhammad Ashraf Bawany, FCMA Concluding Remarks Mr. M. H. Asif, FCMA 3

3 3 3

4 5

8 8

SWOT Analysis
SWOT Analysis A Graphic Representation SWOT Analysis In Brief 10 11 11 12 13 15

Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats (Challenges)

Conclusion Cement Industry A Statistical Review

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Participants of Roundtable

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ROUNDTABLE ON CEMENT INDUSTRY

Background Institute of Cost and Management Accountants of Pakistan, as part of its research program, proposes to organize a series of closed-door debates/ Roundtable deliberations on different industrial sectors. The first Roundtable on Cement Industry was organized, jointly by the Research Department and the Karachi Branch Council, ICMAP on Saturday, 28th July 2007 at ICMAP Head Office, Karachi. Theme The theme of the Roundtable was Cement Industry- Potential, Problems, Solutions. Participants The Roundtable was participated by the stakeholders including Ministry of Industries & Production, Monopoly Control Authority (MCA), Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), Trade Development Authority of Pakistan (TDAP), All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association, Management Accounting Professionals etc.

A SYNOPSIS OF DELIBERATIONS AT THE ROUNDTABLE

Introductory Remarks
By: Mr. M. H. Asif, Chairman, Research, Quality Assurance & Ethics Committee Research is a core area of the Strategic Plan of ICMAP, in addition to its other two important areas of Education and Examination. Industrial development is pre-requisite for poverty alleviation in the country. Cement plays vital role in housing and infrastructure development, thus directly affecting the population at large. Foremost objective of Roundtable is SWOT Analysis of Cement industry i.e. to identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, in relation to cement business with a Pakistani perspective. Another important objective of Roundtable is to develop Terms of Reference (T.O.R.) for undertaking comprehensive research study, on the basis of facts, figures and conflicting views, emerging from the deliberations at the Roundtable. The Institute will publish the study for use by all stakeholders, including the Government agencies, in their policy planning. ICMAPs future program includes organizing similar Debates on other major industries like Sugar, Vegetable Ghee & Cooking Oil, Textiles etc.

ICMAP is working for professional interaction with government organizations for greater research effort on industrial issues.

Presentation by Representative of Cement Industry / Association

Mr. Badruddin Fakhri, Executive Director Pioneer Cement Ltd. Cement industry contributes around Rs.30 billion per annum in shape of Excise Duty and other taxes and around Rs.100 billion to the GDP annually. It also provides employment opportunities to about one lac people. Total investments in cement industry currently exceed Rs.160 billion, which is likely to go further up to Rs.200 billion by 2010. Despite unprecedented growth in demand of cement, the industry is currently not able to generate adequate margins due to low level of prices of cement. As per published Financial Statements of listed cement companies for 9 months of 2006-2007, the industry could earn a net profit of Rs.2.3 billion, which amounts to a Return on Equity as low as 3.1 per cent for three quarters. About fifty percent of listed companies with economies of scale or depreciated plants or very little financial charges made some profits, whereas rest of them incurred losses. Demand of cement enhanced 24 per cent during the period 2006- 2007, from 12 percent in 2002-2003 and around 8 percent in the 1980s. In 1990s, the demand remained stagnant or went up marginally due to political instability. Closure of NDFC in 2000 and non-provision of project financing by PICIC And IDBP have resulted in shortage of investment for setting up new industrial projects. The Government misconstrued that commercial banks would finance industrial projects after closing down the NDFC, which, unfortunately, did not happen. Despite substantial growth in demand, the Per capita consumption of cement in Pakistan is still quite low i.e. 137 Kg. as compared to 870 Kg. in Malaysia, 750 Kg. in Thailand, 330 kg. in Philippines and 411 Kg. in Iran. This indicates huge potential within the country for enhancing cement consumption. Export markets for cement, initially restricted to only Afghanistan, has now expanded to other regions like UAE, Middle East and African countries. During 2006-2007 there has been rise of 112 percent of cement exports over the preceding year. Qatar follows Dubai model and needs cement in bulk quantity due to massive construction projects. Limestone deposits in Qatar have depleted, rendering it to entirely depend on import of clinker/cement. Pakistan is exporting clinker to Qatar and its FOB prices have increased from US$ 40 per ton to US$ 48/49 per ton for supplies relating the year 2007. India is facing shortage in supply of cement by approx. 10 million tons per annum for about next two years. Limestone deposits in India will exhaust by the year 2030, if India doubles its existing capacity. Pakistan is well placed, due to its proximity, to meet this shortage by supplying cement to India. This opportunity may attract foreign cement groups to invest in cement industry of Pakistan. Pakistan has around 12 million tons of surplus capacity, which can be exported to earn foreign exchange of approx. US$ 750 million.

There is urgent need for installing bulk loading facilities at ports in order to facilitate the cement industry to export in large quantity. Presently, only one company has arranged a limited bulk handling facility. Cement prices have gone down considerably despite substantial increase in prices of major inputs like coal, electricity, paper bags and markup rates. Consequently, current price of cement has become much lower than its historical prices due to two factors viz. fierce competition and government pressure to keep the prices low. A price level of Rs.260 per bag seems to be a viable price for cement industry, although it is still lower than the cement prices in other countries. Undue pressure of government to keep the prices lower than the prices of other countries would prove to be counter productive for the economy. About 100 percent increase in the prices of imported coal, from around US$ 40 per ton, few years back, to US$ 80 per ton, has greatly affected profitability of cement industry. Also, about 30 percent fuel cost affected cost of production. Taxes on Cement in Pakistan are the highest than most of the countries i.e. about 30 percent, as compared to 10 percent in Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt, 7 percent in Thailand and zero percent in Iran and Malaysia. As such, rationalization of taxes on cement in Pakistan should be considered. Government should consider switchover to concrete roads, as maintenance cost of such roads is almost zero, although initial capital cost is higher. As per an Indian study, there would be about 12 per cent saving in fuel consumption on plying vehicles on concrete roads. Substantial savings can be achieved by this switchover. Excise Duty on cement may be reduced by at least half, to bring the taxes on cement at least to the level of India, if not to the level of other countries. Bulk handling facilities at the ports be provided on priority basis to facilitate the industry to export around 10 million tons of cement to India, Middle East and African countries to earn substantial foreign exchange. Cement manufacturers should give due consideration to demand and supply parity of cement before embarking upon further expansions in cement production capacity.

Presentation by Representative of Cement Industry / Association

Mr. Irfan Amanullah, DGM & Company Secretary Attock Cement Pakistan Ltd. Number of cement units in the country has increased to 24 at present, as against only 4 units at the time of partition. Investment of around US$2 billion has been made in cement industry since partition. India has production capacity of cement around 150 million tons. If India doubles this capacity to 300 million tons, its limestone reserves will finish by 2030. In case, this capacity is not expanded, limestone reserves can be utilized by 2050. Many Indian States have banned expansion in cement industry due to shortage of limestone. This situation would force India to open its markets for Pakistani cement.

Cement industry has advantage due to domestic availability of raw materials in huge quantity and as such it does not have to import it from other countries. Cement industry started to grow since 1990s but from 1997 to 2002 there was insignificant growth. Cement industry decided at right time to shift from furnace to coal, for survival. We need to apply either Dubai model or Korean model. Dubai model is to trim exports and encourage imports whereas Korean model promotes export. Availability of loans is important to develop and maintain the plants. Because of little profit, industry is still carrying older loans. Pak Land cement was role model for cement companies in 1980s but it collapsed in 1990s because of non-availability of loans to maintain plants. Industry suffered badly during 1996-2001. Cement Industry made decision to go for expansion at right time. Otherwise, price would have been increased more than Rs.500 per bag. Majority of cement plants were installed in Pakistan in 1950s and 1960s and their rated capacity was quite different from their effective capacity. Government should reduce excise duty and other taxes on cement, as promised by it few years back. Total cement production has gone up from 9 million tons to present 38 million tons but the excise duty has been unchanged. Royalty rate on cement, in different regions, varies considerably i.e. Rs. 1 per ton in Islamabad, Rs. 50 per ton in Balochistan and Rs. 15 per ton in Punjab/Sindh. Port Qasim did not give an encouraging response when it was suggested by the industry to provide bulk facility for availing emerging export opportunities. There is misconception about huge profits earned by cement sector. About 75% cost in cement industry is fully verifiable and nothing is hidden. Manifold increase in prices of electricity and fuel has impacted profits of cement industry. Majority of companies have ploughed back their profits because of economies of scale. There is good scope for export of Pakistani Clinker to East Africa and UAE, and cement to the Maharashtra State of India. A small cement plant consumes around 500 tons of coal. However, local coal supplied is inferior in quality and unsuitable for cement plants. Lead-time for completing a cement plant is two to three years. Pakistani cement is considered the best quality product by international sources. Cement industry needs legal and policy framework for sustained growth. Key challenge is to increase per capita cement consumption and key opportunity is to take advantage of the emerging international export markets. Cement industry should invest in improvement of bulk-handling facility at the Jetty, provided the Government came forward with some concessions for the industry.

Accurate statistics on production capacity, exports etc of cement industry and benchmarking for new plants are available with the industry.

Presentation by Regulating Authority Monopoly Control Authority

Mrs. Kishwar Khan Chief (Economic Research) MCA Three production processes are being used in Pakistan for cement production viz. wet process, semi-wet process and dry process. Cumulative investment in new capacities / expansions is projected at Rs. 84 billion in for the period 2007-2008 and around Rs. 117 billion for the period 2008-2009. Professionals should come forward to make analytical research on harms rendered by cartelization, as cartels lead to loss of consumers, including the Government. The Law needs to be strengthened through incorporating new provisions, especially penalties for non-compliance. Many attempts to form cartels have been foiled by the MCA:

First Cartel case was dealt in 1992. MCA examined pricing pattern, capacity
utilization and cost structure, and forwarded recommendations to ECC. State Cement Corporations units were directed to open retail shops at important points in major cities and sell cement at MCAs recommended and ECCs approved rate. With these measures cartel was effectively broken. Second Cartel case was dealt in 1998. Cement manufacturers increased price per bag by Rs.100 overnight. MCA conducted investigation and passed Order in February 1999 directing to reverse cement prices to pre-cartel level (i.e. Rs.135-140 per bag), and MCA put penalty on non-compliance. Third Cartel case was dealt in 2003. MCA monitored the production, capacity utilization, dispatches and Ex-factory prices of cement companies. It issued show cause notices to 8 companies for non-supply of information required under Section 21. MCA observed price fixing and simultaneous price increase without justification. In, 2005, 18 cement manufacturers were directed to break cartel and bring down prices by the amount increased unfairly.

(iii) Dry Presentation by Public Cement Research Institute - TUSDEC

Mr. Munir Ahmed Rana, DGM Cement Research & Development Institute, TUSDEC Ministry of Industries, Production and Special Initiatives Cement Research Institute was formed in 1983 by the State Cement Corporation of Pakistan and tasked with production diversification and development of low-cost blended cements. It facilitates industry by providing cement testing reports as per Pakistan, British, American and Indian cement standards. Cement industries do not pass on relief to consumers, when they get reduction in levies/ excise duty from the government. Last year, excise duty was reduced from Rs. 1000 per ton to Rs. 750 per ton but cement prices remained unchanged. Almost all the cement industries are producing high-strength cement, but there is also urgent need for producing alkali cement for national projects like Lawari Tunnel project and low heat of hydration cement for Mangla Dam Raising project.

Maple Leaf Cement factory has the capability to produce Low Alkali cement. Lucky Cement has installed its own bulk loading system at Karachi Port. Cement industry has existing loans of Rs. 75 billion. The expanding production capacity of cement would be 49 million tons by 2011. This would necessitate bulk-loading facility for exports. Cement industry should introduce new technology for energy conservation. Research may be carried out for producing new types of cement, in order to meet demands of modern construction. Environmental pollution and Green house effect, due to CO and dust emission from the cement industries, should be properly dealt with.

Presentation by Trade Development Authority - TDAP

Mr.Ahmed Saquib, ACMA- Executive Director (Finance) Mr. Asad Zahoor, Executive Director (Supply Chain) Total exports of cement, in 2006, were to the tune of US$ 180 million. A Sectoral Committee on Cement will be formed by TDAP, having representatives on it from the cement industry, regulators, research institute and stakeholders. ICMAP will also be a member on the Sectoral Committee. Reliable estimates of production capacity, demand forecast, etc are required for developing Terms of Reference for research. There is good scope for export of cement to Qatar and Afghanistan. There is need for having collaboration between the public and private sectors for developing the industry and export. A benchmarking study for costing of cement be carried out, which could provide independent credibility. TDAP is ready to provide funds to ICMAP for conducting research on Industries.

Presentation by Public Tax Collection Authority FBR

Mr.Mukhtar Ahmed Gondal Director General, Large Taxpayers Unit (LTU) According to CBR study, the profit of cement industries has declined. Analysis of balance sheets of eleven cement units, located in southern region, revealed that the profit before depreciation was improving due to capital investment. Ideal level of capacity utilization of a cement plant is around 80 to 85 percent. If a plant works up to the level of 40 percent capacity, it signifies loss and more than 40 percent indicates break-even point. Our industry is running at 80% to 82%. Cement production capacity of Pakistan is about 38 million tons per year, as compared to 155 million tons of India and 111 million tons of China.

Although there is shortage of good quality coal, yet it is cheaper than furnace oil. Cement export is around 7 percent of production at present. New markets must be explored for export of cement. Cement industry is not labor-intensive because of automation involvement. Cost of raw material has not increased during the last few years. Shifting to dry process and installation of recycling process are the positive factors in lowering the cost and improving production capacity of cement industry. Cement industry should focus on marketing aspect to use the enhanced capacity.

Summing up of Deliberations
By: Mr. Muhammad Ashraf Bawany, FCMA Roundtable discussion mostly focused on current situation of the industry, its taxation structure, production capacity, pricing factor etc. The long term approach and vision for the industry did not come under discussion of the participants. Cement manufacturers should develop long-term vision and strategy for their industry to enhance production through technological innovation and exports. Macro-level plans, formulated by the Government, should be linked to micro-level initiatives, to ensure smooth and effective implementation of industrial policies. Management Accountants can play a vital role in helping the cement industry to reduce production losses and optimize profits. Cement industry may take benefit from the special expertise of the Management Accountants in this area.

Concluding Remarks
By: Mr. M. H. Asif, Chairman, Research, Quality Assurance & Ethics Committee ICMAP was grateful to the participants to make this initiative a success. Roundtable provided a forum for fruitful interaction between the stakeholders and ICMAP. Almost all aspects related to the cement industry were raised. Representation from cement consumers was missed. They were invited and there must have been some unforeseen last minute constraints. The invitees included Federal Ministry of Housing and Association of Builders and Developers, and Contractors Association. However, they would be approached to have their views. Roundtable did not touch upon the important area of qualitative and technological improvements in the cement industry in the foreseeable future. ICMAP would continue to act as a catalyst in bringing harmony and reconciling the conflicting views of stakeholders. It would also bring out useful publications for the benefit of industry and policy makers. A lot can be done in the area of cost optimization and the expertise of Management Accountants is available to the industry on request.

The forum of Cost and Management Accountants (CMA) Foundation is also available for professional assistance and to undertake joint research studies with the government organizations.

SWOT
ANALYSIS

Strengths
(Abilities)
Strong Industry Base Sustained Growth in Production and Exports Easy Availability of Production Resources Surplus Production for Local and Export Good Local and International Reputation

Weaknesses
(Inabilities)
Lack of Innovation and Technology Absence of Vision to identify weaknesses Lack of Funds to Take Up New Projects Lack of Professional Expertise within Industry Dependence on Cartelisation for adequate Lack of Research & Development

Development

Markets

Revenue

SWOT ANALYSIS

Opportunities
Future Growth Potential Rising Demand Emerging Export Markets Construction Boom Developing a Long Term Vision and Strategy Research to Develop New Products Focus on Cost Optimisation Possible switch over to Cement Roads Conversion to Coal Availability of Finance

Threats
(Challenges)
Low Per Capita Consumption High Incidence of Taxes High Input Cost Decline in Profitability Inadequate Bulk Loading Facility at Ports Supply of Inferior Quality Local Coal Varied Rates of Royalty Rising Oil prices

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SWOT ANALYSIS IN BRIEF

Strengths
(Abilities)
Strong Industry Base The cement Industry contributes annually a major share of Rs. 100 billion to GDP and Rs. 30 billion in shape of taxes and duties. The Industry, having presence in all provinces, is providing employment to about one lac people of the country. It is meeting not only domestic requirement of cement but also making exports to other countries to earn invaluable national foreign exchange.

Sustained Growth in Production and Exports The cement industry has witnessed a sustained growth in production and exports. The total cement production has gone up from around 9 million tons to present 38 million tons per year. Although this capacity is far below than 155 million tons of India and 111 million tons of China, but with the increasing demand of cement, both locally and internationally, as well as with the setting up of more cement plants in the country, the production capacity would get a major boost.

Easy Availability of Production Resources An important advantage to the Pakistani cement industry is that almost all the raw materials and labour, required for the production of cement, are easily available within the country at cheaper prices.

Surplus Production for Local and Export Markets The industry has a surplus production capacity of around 12 million tons of cement and if this capacity is utilized, the additional produce could be exported to earn foreign exchange of approx. US$ 750 million.

Good International Reputation The grey cement produced by the Pakistani cement industry enjoys good reputation in the international market. The international buyers consider it as the best quality product. This is why the demand of our cement in foreign market is continuously increasing.

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SWOT ANALYSIS IN BRIEF

Weaknesses
(Inabilities)
Lack of Innovation and Technology Development The industry lacks innovation due to which there has been insignificant inflow of new and advanced technology into the industry. It is important for the cement industry to adopt modern and most advanced technology to improve production efficiency and produce high-quality cement to meet the local demand and export orders. The industry should also introduce new technology for energy conservation and environmental improvement. Absence of Vision to Identify Weaknesses The industry also lacks a long-term Vision due to which it is not able to identify those weaknesses and shortcomings, which impede its sustained growth. The industry should, therefore, develop long-term vision and strategy to enhance its production and exports. Lack of Funds to Take Up New Projects A key weakness of the cement industry is that sufficient funds are not easily available that could be utilized by the industry for setting up new projects or upgrading the existing units. The financial institutions in the country are providing limited finance that is not adequate for new investments.

Lack of Professional Expertise within the Industry One disadvantage to the cement industry is lack of professional expertise. Due to shortage of professional and experts the industry is unable to effectively achieve production targets, improve quality, minimize production cost and improve and enhance its marketing and distribution channels. Dependence on Cartelisation for adequate Revenue Another weakness of the cement industry is its dependence on cartelisation in order to earn adequate revenue. This has resulted in artificial price escalation of cement in the country. The SECP has to intervene in such circumstance to impose fine on such companies, which form cartels. The industry should find other means to raise profit. Lack of Research & Development There is no institution in the private sector that could undertake research & development in the cement sector to improve the productivity, quality, efficiency, marketability as well as conducting feasibility for producing new products, optimising cost of production and industry expansion.

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SWOT ANALYSIS IN BRIEF

Opportunities
Future Growth Potential The cement industry has witnessed a steady growth over the last few years, which is evident from the continuous increase in foreign exports and investments in the industry. During 2006-2007, cement exports enhanced to 112 per cent over the preceding year and it is expected to go further up in coming years. Moreover, total investments in the cement industry, which currently exceed Rs. 160 billion, is projected to go further up to Rs. 200 billion by the year 2010. Rising Local Demand The demand of grey cement rose to 24 per cent during 2006- 2007, from just 12 percent in 2002-2003. It is expected that the demand will grow further in future. Moreover, cement industries are mostly producing high-strength cement. There is urgent need for producing alkali cement to meet the demands of national mega projects like Lawari Tunnel project, Mangla Dam Raising project, Gwadar Port, etc. Emerging Export Markets There is good scope for export of clinker and grey cement to India, UAE, Qatar, Middle East and African countries. These markets are opening up and a lot depends on the production capacity and bulk handling facility at the Ports to cope up with the rising international demand. Construction Boom in Pakistan Presently there is a boom in the construction industry within the country. The demand for cement has enhanced considerably due to construction of a large number of mega national projects such as Water Dams, Northern By-Pass Projects, Highways, Government Housing Projects, etc. This offers a great opportunity for the cement industry to increase production to meet the future demand. It is also important that research be carried out to produce new types of cement.

Developing a Long-Term Vision and Strategy The cement industry is now adopting a forward-looking approach and developing a Long-term Vision and Strategy for enhancing production capacity and exports. The Trade Development Authority of Pakistan (TDAP) has also formed a Sectoral Committee on Cement for this purpose.

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SWOT ANALYSIS IN BRIEF

Opportunities

(contd.)

Research To Develop New Products Extensive research is being carried out by the Cement Research and Development Institute, under the aegis of the Ministry of Industries and Production, to produce new types of cement to meet the demands of modern construction. Focus on Cost Optimisation The cement industry is not making serious efforts for cost optimisation. This is an important area where the industry can improve by utilizing the professional expertise of Management Accountants in minimizing the cost of production.

Possible Switch-over to Cement Roads The industry in collaboration with the Government should consider switchover to concrete roads. Although the initial capital cost of such roads is higher but the maintenance cost is almost zero. This would result in huge fuel consumption. Conversion to Coal The conversion from furnace to coal is an opportunity for the industry as it easily available in the local market at much cheaper prices.

Availability of Finance The industry has the opportunity to obtain finance from the banks and financial institutions in the country.

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SWOT ANALYSIS IN BRIEF

Threats (Challenges)
Low Per Capita Consumption Despite increasing demand, the per capita consumption of cement is very low i.e. Rs. 137 Kg. as against 870 Kg. in Malaysia, 750 Kg. in Thailand and 411 Kg. in Iran. High Incidence of Taxes Around 30 percent taxes / levies on cement are highest than most of the countries i.e. 10 percent in Indonesia, Philippines & Egypt, 7 percent in Thailand and zero percent in Iran and Malaysia. High Input Cost Due to increased cost of input such as electricity, coal, paper bags, mark-up rates etc, the cost of production of cement has increased over the years.

Decline in Profitability Despite unprecedented growth in demand of cement, the industry is currently not able to generate adequate margins due to low level of prices of cement. Inadequate Bulk-loading Facility at Ports Due to non-availability of bulk-handing facility at ports, the cement industry is not in a position to export to new markets in bulk quantity at low cost in short time.

Supply of Inferior Quality Coal and High Cost of Imported Coal Local coal supplied is inferior in quality and unsuitable for cement plants. On the other hand, the price of imported coal is too high. There has been almost hundred percent increase in prices of imported coal, from around US$ 40 per ton, few years back, to approx. US$ 80 per ton at present.

Varied Rates of Royalty Royalty rate on cement, in different regions, varies considerably i.e. Re. 1 per ton in Islamabad, Rs. 50 per ton in Balochistan and Rs. 15 per ton in Punjab and Sindh. Rising Oil Prices High rate of furnace oil has greatly impacted the cement industry. As such, rising international prices of oil is also a threat to the cement industry.

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Conclusion
The Roundtable produced a meaningful outcome, generated through fruitful interaction of the stakeholders. There were many issues on which the participants shared a common view but they had also conflicting opinions on some other issues. In fact, this difference in the expressed opinions of stakeholders was in harmony with the spirit behind organizing the Debate. These conflicting issues provided the Institute with ideas for carrying out detailed research in new areas, for benefiting the policy makers and those who are associated with the cement industry.

Two-Pronged Research Exercise:

Based on both the consensus and conflicting views, expressed during the Roundtable, the Institute intends to embark upon the following two-pronged research exercise: (1) Validate the issues/ assumptions on which the participants hold consensus views. (2) Carry out detailed research study on the conflicting views and opinions. A Terms of Reference (T.O.R.s), covering 13 broad areas, has been prepared, for carrying out in-depth research. A copy of this TOR is attached with this Report.

Consensus on Key Issues:

The participants had unanimity of views on the following key aspects of cement industry: Industry has Scope for Future Growth Industry is progressing steadily with more scope for future growth. All indicators i.e. production, demand, exports and investments are showing rising trends. More Exports depends on improved Port Facility Industry is capable to export to new markets but non-availability of bulk-handling facility at Ports, hampers them to seize the emerging export potentials. Per Capita Consumption needs to be enhanced Industrys biggest challenge is that despite constant increase in demand of cement, the per capital consumption is much lower than in other cement producing countries. Long-term Vision is needed for sustained growth Industry needs a long-term vision and strategy to achieve sustained growth, meet future challenges and seize emerging export opportunities. Taxes on Cement needs to be rationalized Industry has to pay high taxes and duties, which increases its cost of production. The Government should consider rationalizing the taxes on cement Industry. Industry should opt for cost optimization Industry should give special focus on minimizing the production cost in order to increase their profit margin and become competitive in international export markets. Management Accountants can offer their expertise to help the industry in this regard.

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Conflicting Views on Key Issues:

The participants had different views on the following key issues of cement industry: Issue of Sale Price of Cement The Cement manufacturers are of the view that price per bag of cement in Pakistan is much lower than in other countries and as such it should be enhanced. The price is low due to two main factors i.e. fierce competition and undue government pressure to keep the prices low. The Government, on the other hand, says that it do not exert any pressure on it, rather the cement companies increase the prices without justification and form cartels, which need to be discouraged. There is another conflicting opinion on this issue that the cement companies do not pass on the benefit to consumers, even if they get any tax concession from the government. Issue of Low Profitability of Cement Companies It was indicated by the stakeholders that the profit margin of majority of the cement companies has declined. However, there was no consensus on the specific reason(s) for this decline. The Industry felt that the profit decline was due to exorbitant increase in electricity and fuel prices. The government side indicated that the profit before depreciation of some cement companies had improved due to capital investment. There is a general impression, as hinted by industry representatives, that the cement sector conceals its huge profits by showing high production cost. Issue of High Production Cost This issue also needs thorough analysis as participants expressed different opinions on it. The industry indicated that input cost has increased manifold and about 75 percent cost is fully verifiable and nothing is hidden. On the other hand, it was informed by a government representative that the cost of raw material has not increased during the last few years. Moreover, it was suggested by another participant that a benchmarking study on costing of cement be carried out. Issue of Expansion in Cement Industry There are much differences in views of the management of the industry for making investments for further expansion. The cement companies, with aggressive approach, are opting for expansion whereas other industries feel that demand and supply parity of cement should be considered before going for further expansion. This conflicting situation provides a research area to find out as to whether expansion should be made or not to benefit the industry?

SWOT Analysis:
On the basis of presentation of papers, deliberations made, conflicts identified and suggestions put forward during the Roundtable, an attempt has been made to develop a SWOT Analysis of the cement industry of Pakistan. The analysis is annexed to this publication. It is admitted that the scope of this analysis may not be encompassing all the aspects of the cement industry, but it has, to a great extent, identified the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the cement industry. It now depends on the industry to make a detailed self-assessment so as to consolidate its strengths, improve its weaknesses, seize the emerging opportunities and prepare itself to face future threats and challenges in this highly competitive global trade environment.

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CEMENT INDUSTRY
A STATISTICAL REVIEW

DOMESTIC SALES IN PAKISTAN Year 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 Million (Tons) 10.98 12.52 14.79 16.91 21.03 Percentage Increase +12% +14% +18% +14% +24%

EXPORT OF CEMENT FROM PAKISTAN Year 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 Million (Tons) 0.43 1.12 1.57 1.51 3.19 Percentage Increase +353% +160% +40% - 04% * +112%

* Reduced due to ban on export for few months during 2005-06. PRICES OF CEMENT IN PAKISTAN Year July 1996 July 2000 July 2005 July 2006 July 2007 Approx. Price per Bag (Rs.) 206 230 262 245 200 *

* Rs.225 per bag in South.

PRODUCTION OF CEMENT IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES Country India China USA Japan Russia Korea Spain Italy Turkey Mexico Brazil Pakistan Iran Vietnam Production (Million Tons/Year) 155 111 101 68 54 52 50 50 45 40 40 38 37 33

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PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION OF CEMENT IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES Country Pakistan Iran Philippines Thailand Malaysia Per Capital Consumption (Kg). 137 411 330 750 870

PRICES OF CEMENT IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES Country Pakistan India Afghanistan Dubai Sri Lanka Iran Price per Bag (US Dollar) 3.69 * 4.87 4.15 4.63 5.06 4.87

* Based on price of Rs.225 per bag.

TAXES ON CEMENT IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES Country Pakistan India Indonesia Philippines Egypt Thailand Iran Malaysia Percentage (%) 30 18 10 10 10 07 Zero Zero

CUMULATIVE INVESTMENT IN EXPANSIONS OF CEMENT INDUYSTRY 150 117 120 PKR in Billion 90 60 30 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2 8 38 79 84

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PARTICIPANTS OF ROUNDTABLE
1. Mr. M. H. Asif, FCMA Former President ICMAP Member National Council and Chairman, Research, Quality Assurance & Ethics Committee 2. Mrs. Kishwar Khan Chief (Economic Research) Monopoly Control Authority (MCA) 3. Mr. Mukhtar Ahmed Gondal Director General Large Taxpayers Unit (LTU) Central Board of Revenue (CBR) 4. Mr. Munir Ahmed Rana Deputy General Manager Cement Research & Development Institute TUSDEC Ministry of Industries, Production & Special Initiatives 5. Mr. Ahmed Saquib, ACMA Executive Director, Finance & Accounts Trade Development Authority of Pakistan (TDAP) 6. Mr. Asad Zahoor Executive Director, Supply Chain Trade Development Authority of Pakistan (TDAP) 7. Mr. Badruddin Fakhri, FCMA Executive Director Pioneer Cement Limited Representing All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association 8. Mr. Irfan Amanullah, FCMA DGM & Company Secretary Attock Cement Pakistan Ltd. Representing All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association 9. Mirza Munawar Hussain, FCMA Member National Council and Member, Research, Quality Assurance & Ethics Committee 10. Mr. Muhammad Ashraf Bawany, FCMA Former President ICMAP Finance Director & Company Secretary BOC Pakistan Ltd. 11. Mr. Abid M. Anwar, FCMA Member, Research, Quality Assurance & Ethics Committee, ICMAP 12. Mr. Wasful Hassan Siddiqi, FCMA Practicing Member ICMAP 13. Mr. Mustafa Hussain Siddiqui, FCMA Practicing Member ICMAP 14. Mr. Abdul Ghafoor Ateeq, FCMA Practicing Member ICMAP 15. Engr. Ather Atiq Qureshi Manager Export Dadabhoy Cement Industries

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Institute of Cost and Management Accountants of Pakistan

Research Department
Address: Head Office (Karachi) ICMAP Bldg., ST-18/C Block-6, Gulshan-e-Iqbal P.O. Box No.17642 Karachi-75300. Contact: Tel: 9221-9243900, 1, 2 ,4 Fax: 9221-9243342 E-mail: [email protected]

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