New tropical disturbance could become depression, Tropical Storm Patty later this week

As predicted by AccuWeather last week, a new tropical disturbance has cropped up in the southwestern Caribbean Sea that has a medium chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next seven days.

The National Hurricane Center says that the broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea over the next few days, adding that a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend as the system drifts northward or northeastward over the southwestern and central Caribbean.

The central Caribbean would be an ideal spot for the system to continue development due to the warm water and the potential for low wind shear, says AccuWeather. Tropical Storm Patty would be the next named storm.

Here's what to know about the latest tropical disturbance.

Tropical disturbance could become tropical depression or Tropical Storm Patty later this week

An area of low pressure is expected to gradually develop over the next few days and could form a tropical depression or even Tropical Storm Patty later this week or over the weekend.

The system will drift northward or northeastward over the southwestern and south-central Caribbean Sea during that time period.

This time of year, tropical development is typically pretty slow, but that's not always the case. Hurricane Oscar, a Category 1 storm that struck Cuba last weekend, spun up into a tropical storm in just hours.

Warm waters in the Caribbean and low wind shear will make the central Caribbean conducive to storm development as the disturbance moves into the area.

Aiding those factors is the Central American Gyre, which is active near the end of the tropical season.

What and where is the Central American Gyre?

The Central American Gyre is basically a large area of low pressure that swirls over Central America with a lifespan similar to the Atlantic hurricane season. The gyre typically forms in the spring and ends in November.

The gyre can span hundreds of miles and has a significant impact on weather patterns in the area, bringing torrential rains, flooding and mudslides to Central America.

Its impacts have been widespread, however. The gyre can help fuel tropical cyclone development in the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico and even the eastern Pacific.

Developing tropical disturbance will cause downpours over much of the Caribbean

AccuWeather says that much of the Caribbean could see life-threatening mudslides and flash flooding regardless of how the storm develops.

Could Tropical Storm Patty impact Florida?

It's a possibility, which means Florida residents should keep an eye on the system as it develops throughout the week.

"Storms in the Caribbean usually move to the north or northeast in November. This means that residents and visitors from Florida (including the Gulf Coast) to the Carolinas will have to keep a close eye on development," cautioned AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.

"Even if a tropical storm forms and tracks into Mexico or Central America, changing steering winds can turn that storm to the northeast and toward Florida later on," he added.

There's a low chance Tropical Storm Rafael could follow Patty

While the chance is low, a second area could develop with the tail of a cold front that will move off the East Coast later this week, according to AccuWeather.

Development will be contingent on whether an area of low pressure forms that's disconnected from the cold front.

The National Hurricane Center is tracking four tropical waves

Despite nearing the end of the Atlantic hurricane season, the basin is anything but quiet. The National Hurricane Center is now tracking four tropical waves throughout the Caribbean and Atlantic.

A low amplitude tropical wave is along 35W, south of 15N, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. The NHC has observed scattered moderate convection along the wave axis near 10N.

Another tropical wave is along 52W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. A few showers are noted near the trough axis.

A third tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis is along 68W and extends southward into western Venezuela. A few showers are near the northern end of the wave axis.

The last tropical wave has reached the Caribbean plains of Nicaragua. Its axis is along 84W, south of 18N. Scattered moderate convection is present near the wave axis, mainly over southeastern Nicaragua and the northwestern Caribbean.

What else is happening in the Gulf of Mexico?

There is a high-pressure system over southeastern Louisiana, which is influencing the weather pattern in the Gulf of Mexico. The high-pressure area is causing moderate to fresh easterly winds across most of the area, with wave heights generally between 3 to 6 feet. There's cloud cover and possible showers over much of the Gulf, except in the northwest. The forecast predicts that these conditions will largely continue through Friday night, with potentially stronger winds in the eastern Gulf midweek.