How RFK Jr Dropping Out Would Affect Trump vs Harris in Battleground States

Donald Trump would perform better against Kamala Harris in November's presidential election in the key swing states of Michigan, Nevada and North Carolina if these races involved multiple candidates rather than simply the two front-runners, according to an analysis of recent polling by RacetotheWH.

In Nevada and North Carolina, the difference was enough to flip the states from blue to red. The inclusion of third-party candidates did help Trump somewhat in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, though not enough to flip any of these states.

By some margin, the most important third-party candidate is independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has 4.9 percent support according to the most recent analysis of recent polls by election website 538. Other third-party candidates include the Green Party's Jill Stein, the Libertarian Party's Chase Oliver and Cornel West of the Justice for All Party, though none of these are consistently polling about one percent.

On Tuesday, former President Trump said during an interview with CNN that he would "be open" to Kennedy serving in his administration if the independent candidate dropped out of the race and endorsed him.

It came after Nicole Shanahan, Kennedy's running mate, suggested the pair could "walk away right now and join forces with Donald Trump" to prevent Vice President Harris from winning in November.

Following Trump's remarks, the odds of Harris being elected in November took a hit with leading bookmakers between Tuesday and Wednesday.

Newsweek reached out to Kennedy, Harris and Trump's presidential campaigns via email for comment on Wednesday.

Newsweek has provided below the impact of Kennedy's dropping out on seven key swing states based on the RacetotheWH analysis.

Arizona

In Arizona, RacetotheWH calculated that Harris leads Trump by 0.5 points in a head-to-head, with 47.3 percent of the vote against 46.8 percent.

Including third-party candidates increased Harris's lead to 0.9 points, with 44.9 percent of the vote against 44 percent for Trump and 5.6 percent for Kennedy.

Georgia

RacetotheWH found Trump had a 1.8-point lead over Harris in Georgia, with 48.7 percent of the vote, against 46.9 percent for the Democratic candidate.

When third-party candidates were added, this lead fell slightly to 1.7 points, with Trump at 46.4 percent, Harris at 46.9 percent, and Kennedy at 4 percent.

Michigan

According to the analysis, Harris leads Trump by 2.9 points in Michigan. The current vice president has 49 percent, compared to 46.1 percent for her Republican rival.

Including third-party candidates cut this lead to 1.8 points, with Harris at 45.1 percent against 43.3 percent for Trump and 5.6 percent for Kennedy.

Nevada

In Nevada, the analysis shows Harris out-polling Trump by 0.4 points, with 46.6 percent of the vote against his 46.2 percent.

When third-party candidates were included, Trump led with 44.6 percent, ahead of Harris with 43.8 percent and Kennedy with 4.9 percent.

North Carolina

Harris leads Trump in a straight contest by 47.4 percent against 47.2 percent, an advantage of 0.2 points, according to RacetotheWH.

Including third-party candidates pushed Trump into the lead with 45.7 percent of the vote, 0.7 points ahead of Harris, who had 45 percent, followed by Kennedy, who had 3.4 percent.

Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania, Harris had a one-point lead over Trump, with 48.2 percent of the vote against 47.2 percent in a straight fight, according to the model.

This lead increased to 1.4 points when third-party candidates were included, putting Harris at 45.8 percent, Trump at 47.2 percent and Kennedy at 4.4 percent.

Wisconsin

The RacetotheWH analysis gave Harris a lead of 2.1 points in a straight fight with Trump, with 48.8 percent of the vote against 46.7 percent.

This lead increased slightly to 2.9 points with the inclusion of third-party candidates, which put Harris at 46.7 percent, Trump at 43.8 percent and Kennedy at 4.8 percent.