War
WHY ARE WAR SLOWLY GRIPING THE WORLD
In a world where varied cultural, political, and economic interests often clash, the unfortunate reality of conflict can sometimes escalate into outright warfare. From civil wars to territorial disputes and struggles for resources, the reasons for conflict are multifaceted and complex, often rooted in longstanding historical context or emergent sociopolitical circumstances. Using the Uppsala Conflict Data Program's definition, which classifies a war as a state-based conflict resulting in at least 1000 battle-related deaths in a specific calendar year, we've analyzed data on estimated casualties across different regions to present a comprehensive snapshot of the current global landscape of ongoing conflicts.
Snapshot
Wars, always happen due to economic, territorial, religious, or political reasons, can leave countries war-torn, requiring decades for infrastructure and economic rebuilding.
Presently 32 countries are at wars some internal and most external nature.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict, started in Feb 2022, demonstrates the intricacies of modern warfare, including unexpected resistance, strategic and logistic challenges, and substantial civilian impact.
Global war statistics reveal a diversity of conflicts, from Myanmar's long-standing civil war to the ongoing drug war in Mexico, each with unique causes and consequences.
The international community's response to conflicts, such as in Ukraine and Yemen, involves humanitarian aid, economic sanctions, and political actions, reflecting the complex nature of modern geopolitics.
The Oxford English Dictionary defines "war" as: (1) A state of armed conflict between different countries or different groups within a country; (2) a state of competition or hostility between different people or groups, or (3) a sustained campaign against an undesirable situation or activity. There are many possible reasons for war to begin between—or more often, within—nations. Among these are economic gain, territorial gain, religion, nationalism, civil war, and political revolution. Often, countries' leaders become primary motivators of conflict by instigating a territorial dispute, trying to control another country's natural resources, or exercising authoritarian power over people. Countries subject to prolonged conflict can become war-torn countries that require many decades to rebuild their infrastructure, economy, and other functions.
Not all wars are formalized with official declarations of war between combatants. Conversely, not every ongoing armed conflict is classified as a war. This article will use the Uppsala Conflict Data Program definition, which described war as "a state-based conflict or dyad which reaches at least 1000 battle-related deaths in a specific calendar year." Fatality figures include any combatants killed in action as well as any civilians who were deliberately killed (for example, by bombings or other attacks).
The 2022 Russia/Ukraine conflict
On February 24, 2022, the Russian Federation began a military invasion of Ukraine, escalating a conflict that had been simmering since Russia's 2014 annexation of Ukraine's Crimean peninsula. After officially recognizing the separatist Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk on February 21, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin sent troops into Ukraine on what he termed a "peacekeeping" mission, which escalated to a large-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022.
Military action in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict
The initial attacks were composed of missile volleys, soon followed by ground troops and armored units which entered Ukraine from both Russia and Belarus and appeared to be targeting Ukraine's capital city of Kiev. By Feb. 24, 2022,, Russian forces had taken control of the Chernobyl nuclear power facility. As of the evening of Feb. 25, 2022,, Russian forces had also overtaken an airfield near Kyiv and were expected to take control of the city within days, if not hours.
However, those expectations proved inaccurate. The Ukrainian people, urged to resist by President Volodymyr Zelensky, fought with great conviction and effectiveness. The frozen ground began to thaw, creating muddy, boggy soil that limited the ability of tanks and other heavy armored vehicles. Russia also had great difficulty keeping supply lines running smoothly—a concern amplified by the fact that, according to some reports, Russia's ground forces entered Ukraine carrying only a three-day supply of fuel. Many Russian tanks ran out of fuel and were abandoned. Moreover, reports came of Russian soldiers who chose to surrender rather than fire upon Ukrainians, whom they regarded as countrymen (because Ukraine is a former Soviet Republic). Together, these factors delayed what Russia reportedly planned to be a swift takeover.
As of Sept. 12, 2022, Kyiv still had not fallen. Conversely, as time passed, the war began to turn more and more in Ukraine's favor. The United States and other allies offered significant military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine while also imposing all manner of trade boycotts and other economic and political penalties upon Russia. Morale among Russian troops continued to decrease, and Ukrainian counterattacks, particularly in early September, were successful in reclaiming large portions of territory previously occupied by Russia.
Initial developments in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict
In the face of Ukraine's initial stronger-than-expected resistance, Russia escalated its efforts. It had reportedly broken cease-fire agreements, admitted to launching thermobaric rockets, hypersonic missiles, and banned anti-personnel mines and cluster munitions, the uses of which may be considered war crimes. Russia had also begun attacking civilian targets including a known evacuation route and a maternity hospital and other health care facilities (which are also war crimes). Despite these escalated tactics, as well as looming shortages of food and water in Ukrainian towns such as Kherson, Kharkiv, and Sumy, Ukraine launched a counteroffensive that seemed by March 22, 2022 to have reclaimed some of the territory Russia had occupied, most notably the city of Makariv, west of Kyiv. As of May 2, 2022, Ukrainian forces were continuing to regain territory.
As of May 5, 2022, more than 5.5 million Ukranians had fled the country, seeking refuge predominantly in Poland (more than 3 million refugees) but also in Hungary, Slovakia, and other European countries—including, somewhat paradoxically, Russia, where many Ukranians have family. More than 7 million more are believed to be displaced inside the country. On March 25, 2022, the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) estimated that one out of every two Ukrainian children had been displaced by the ongoing war, and the UN has gone on record stating the Ukraine refugee crisis is "the fastest and largest displacement of people in Europe since World War II."
The United States, Germany, and several other nations also imposed massive economic sanctions against Russia, such as boycotting the purchase of Russian oil and wheat and locking Russian banks out of the financial network SWIFT, thereby limiting their ability to conduct international transactions. Supply chain shortages caused by these sanctions, as well as the conflict itself, have sent the prices of gasoline, natural gas, wheat, and certain other products (particularly those produced by Russia or Ukraine), to record highs in many places around the globe.
However, the greatest financial impact is happening in Russia itself, where the ruble is plummeting in value and the already struggling economy is undergoing tremendous strain. Many countries have also levied sanctions against Putin himself, as well as various other high-level Russian politicians and oligarchs. China, notably, has been reticent to criticize Russia's actions and has not imposed any sanctions. On March 25, 2022, Putin instructed Russia's gas importers to accept payments only in Russian rubles, a move intended to increase the flailing value of Russia's currency. The move was widely rejected by countries including France and Germany.
Myanmar
Type: Civil War 2022 casualties (estimate): 13,646
Conflict between the various ethnic factions in Myanmar began in 1948, the year the country gained independence from the UK, and has continued in varying degrees ever since, making this the longest civil war in the world. While the conflict waned briefly from 2011-2021 amid ongoing political reform, a 2021 military coup plunged the country back into violence. ACLED estimates that Myanmar endured 11,000 casualties in 2021 and more than 13,000 in the first eight months of 2022.
Countries in Which War Casualties Fell Below 10,000 in 2022:
Afghanistan
Type: Civil War/Terrorist Insurgency 2022 casualties (ACLED estimate): 2,710 The war in Afghanistan has been on and off since 1978. The most recent phase began in 2001 and has primarily revolved around U.S. and U.N. forces and allied Afghan troops fighting Taliban insurgents. According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), there were 30,936 confirmed fatalities in 2020 alone. The US/UN withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 signaled that particular conflict, but the Taliban immediately retook control of the country and war between the Taliban and other factions, including ISIL-K, which bombed the airport in Kabul during U.S. evacuations, continues. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) estimates that Afghanistan has experienced more than 2,700 casualties in 2022.
Ethiopia [also involved: Eritrea]
Type: Civil War 2022 casualties (ACLED estimate): 4,790 Tension between clashing political parties in Ethiopia escalated into a violent civil war in November 2020. Eritrea, which borders Ethiopia to the north, has also sent troops into the conflict. The violence has spilled over into neighboring countries, with isolated skirmishes taking place in Sudan and Somalia. Named the "Tigray War", after the region in which it began, the war had resulted in more than 9,000 documented casualties (though some sources estimate more than 50,000) by September 2021. Reports indicate war crimes are common.
Mexico
Type: Drug War 2022 casualties (ACLED estimate): 5,393 The Mexican Drug War is an ongoing conflict between the Mexican government and multiple powerful and violent drug trafficking cartels. It is estimated that the war on drugs has led to at least 350,000 deaths—with more than 72,000 people still missing—from January 2006 to May 2021.
Yemen [also involved: Saudi Arabia]
Type: Civil War 2022 casualties (ACLED estimate): 5,548 The Yemeni Civil War began in September 2014 when the Houthi armed movement took control of Sanaa, the capital city and seat of the existing government, led by President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. Both factions claim to be the official Yemeni government. Saudi Arabia intervened in support of Hadi in early 2015, leading a coalition of Asian and African countries, with intelligence and logistical support from the United States. ACLED has counted more than 140,000 fatalities since the start of the war, including nearly 20,000 in 2020 alone.
In April 2022, the two sides in this conflict agreed to a two-month truce, which could be extended indefinitely (two months at a time) into the future. As of September 2022, the truce has been extended multiple times. While the truce has not always been followed--more than 2000 violations (resulting in 350+ fatalities) have been recorded since its adoption--it has nonetheless decreased the level of violence in the country, which saw more than 23,000 deaths in 2021.
Reported fatalities often vary between sources—sometimes drastically.
These differences can stem from multiple causes. The simple act of collecting data during wars or armed conflicts is by inherently challenging, as conflicts are chaotic and dangerous and participants are often quite secretive about engagements and casualties. For example, Russia likely incurred significantly more deaths in 2023 than the 187 listed.
Additionally, data-tracking methodologies often vary. Possible differences include contrasting recording/reporting practices; variations in victim categorization (such as civilians or combatants); and differing definitions, terminology, and/or event categories.
Data shown include estimates from two prominent sources: the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) for analysis and comparison.
India is not officially at war, but is involved in simmering border disputes with both China and Pakistan, which occasionally escalate to violence.
Source: © 2024 World Population Review
A VIOLENT YEAR
2023 saw Hamas launch an unprecedented attack on Israel - with Gaza facing heavy bombardment and a ground assault in response; ongoing fighting in Ukraine following Russia's full-scale invasion the previous year, and civil wars in Sudan and Myanmar.
Tensions have also risen in the South China Sea, with an upcoming election in Taiwan set to stoke hostility with China once again.
Sky News has analysed these flashpoints and asks: what could come in 2024?
ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR
By Alistair Bunkall, Middle East correspondent
Almost since the day the war started, there has been talk and speculation over what will happen on "the day after". Who will run Gaza? Will there be the creation of an independent Palestinian state? Will Benjamin Netanyahu survive as Israeli prime minister? And who will take responsibility for failing to prevent the Hamas attacks? So when will "the day after" arrive? Anyone expecting or hoping for a single moment of Israeli "victory" will likely be disappointed. Even if Yahya Sinwar, Hamas's leader in Gaza, were to emerge from the underground tunnels waving a white flag, the military operation in Gaza wouldn't be over.
Israel has already declared 2024 "the year of war" and it will take months, possibly even years, for Israel to comprehensively sweep Gaza and destroy every last remnant of Hamas - if they're even able to do so at all.For a moment of significance, I would look to Benny Gantz. The opposition leader is Israel's most popular politician, according to polling, and is the frontrunner to be the country's next prime minister should Netanyahu be forced out.The former defence minister and IDF chief of staff joined the war cabinet, not as part of "a political partnership, but a shared fate". He has no intention of remaining part of Netanyahu's government for longer than he needs to, and so the day he steps away will be a crucial moment and a challenge to Bibi.
As well as change in Israeli political leadership, Mahmoud Abbas, the long-serving and increasingly weak Palestinian president, might be forced to appoint a successor, or at least delegate duties to key political allies. However, it will be extremely difficult to find someone acceptable to both Israel and the Palestinian people, many of whom have lost all faith in the ruling Palestinian Authority.
Lebanon remains an unresolved issue and if diplomatic attempts to push Hezbollah back from Israel's border are unsuccessful, Israel might be persuaded to take military action. An Israeli drone strike, in Hezbollah-controlled southern Beirut, that killed a senior Hamas commander is a potentially major escalation. A war with Lebanon would likely make the Gaza conflict seem small by comparison and could be very costly for Israel, as well as the Lebanese.
In 2024, watch out for further mobilisation on both sides.
Ukraine for sure; Russia perhaps, but only once presidential elections are over. The political implications will be significant for both sides. Even in Russia, the public is not prepared to throw unlimited troops into battle. Drones and improvements in electronic warfare will remain crucial. Ukraine says it needs technological breakthroughs in a variety of other areas too. Those will depend on clever engineers or scientists, quite apart from the fact Ukraine needs consistency from the West in terms of munitions and other supplies. On that front, Russia is ahead - its arms industry is on overdrive and North Korea and Iran are filling in the gaps. Russia currently maintains a largely defensive position but signs of Western war fatigue may inspire Putin to go on the offensive. He recently called Odesa a "Russian city", which may signal a long-term ambition to control the entire Black Sea coast, currently wildly ambitious but time seems to be on Putin's side here. Expect Ukraine to become more ambitious in terms of strikes deeper into Crimea and Russian territory. Then, there is the possibility of a Trump election win and the range of unknowns that might entail.
It would be safe to assume this war will not end in 2024.
TAIWAN
By Helen-Ann Smith, Asia correspondent
One of the vice-presidential candidates in Taiwan's upcoming election described this vote as a choice between "war and peace" - but how accurate is this, and could Taiwan's election provoke conflict in Asia? There is no doubt that the vote on 13 January will ramp up tensions in this already-strained region. Taiwan is a self-governing island that China sees as a breakaway province. Chinese President Xi Jinping has repeatedly expressed his desire to "re-unify" it, using force if needs be. China views the fact that elections are being held at all as deeply provocative. In addition, the most likely outcome, victory for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-te, is the outcome that will be considered most egregious by Beijing.
This is because the DPP takes the hardest line against its powerful neighbor and also because Lai himself is a more provocative figure, with a history of making more openly pro-independence statements than others in his party. There is no doubt the vote, and likely Lai victory, will spark more military activity in the strait. Expect dozens, possibly hundreds, of Chinese fighter jets and bombers to fly towards Taiwan's airspace, many will likely cross the so-called median line into its air defense zone. There will also likely be large military drills involving warships and live missiles fired. While a full-scale invasion is still very unlikely, the greatest risk is that increased military activity results in some sort of miscalculation or accident that either Taiwan, and/or its backers the US, feel they have no choice but to respond to. President Biden has repeatedly said the US would defend Taiwan if necessary and there is concern that, despite recent diplomatic efforts, relations between China and the US are still bad enough that there may not be adequate "off-ramps" if things escalate.
SUDAN
By Yousra Elbagir, Africa correspondent
Sudan has been plunged into the worst episode of conflict it has seen since its civil war - which itself eventually tore Africa's largest nation into two. After the revolution in 2019 ousted long-time dictator Omar al Bashir, his former henchmen clung on to power and eventually turned on each other in an explosive confrontation. Smoke rises over Khartoum in Sudan in June. Now, the country's army is fighting the second-largest armed faction – Janjaweed militia turned paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) – with shelling, airstrikes and bullets, killing at least 12,000 people and entrapping hundreds of thousands. The chants for freedom, peace and equality that marked the revolution have now been replaced with calls for peace and humanitarian aid access.
Large areas of the capital Khartoum have been besieged by the RSF, who have been committing mass sexual violence against women and girls and occupying civilian homes. Humanitarian convoys have been attacked by both sides and millions are struggling to get access to basic necessities. In Darfur, RSF-endorsed ethnic violence has ravaged non-Arab communities as army headquarters fall under their control. In just eight months of war, 6.6 million people were forced from their homes. Many more are expected to flee as international mediation fails to ensure a lasting ceasefire and funding for aid dries up. With no end in sight, Sudan's war will continue to create a horrifying humanitarian crisis and scatter an entire nation's population across the world.
MYANMAR
By Stuart Ramsay, chief correspondent
The ruling military junta in Myanmar that took control of the country in a coup in February 2021 is facing its greatest threat after ethnic rebel armies joined forces and overran military outposts – and took out border crossings with neighboring China. The so-called Three Brotherhood Alliance came together to fight the junta's forces in Shan State, an area that borders both China and Thailand. It is significant for two reasons. Firstly, the armed groups have operated independently of each other for many years and basically existed to protect their own interests – be it business or territory – as opposed to fighting for a greater cause; that greater cause being a new federal structure for Myanmar, or Burma as it's also known.
Secondly, and this is very important, to date China has not done anything to stop them. While nominally supporting the junta over the years, in recent months relations have cooled, leaving the ruling military to deal with well-funded armed opposition forces, while also having to deal with ongoing uprising across the country.The Brotherhood Alliance has indicated that, like many other ethnic armies in Myanmar, it now intends to bring down the military government and is aligning itself with the National Unity Government (NUG), the political coalition formerly deposed by the junta.
The NUG militias, generally known as the People's Defence Forces (PDF), are not well-armed or experienced but have been fighting the military since the 2021 coup. Many have joined forces with ethnic armed organizations which have been fighting the military for decades. While it's generally outgunned, the PDF resistance has been able to continue to operate mainly because of a huge influx of young professionals who left the country's major cities to take up arms. The junta's conscript army still controls most of the major towns and roads and uses artillery and airstrikes to attack the PDF and ethnic armed groups who largely control the countryside. The junta's attacks have targeted the civilian population, forcing many to leave their homes and find safety in the jungles of Myanmar.
The ruling military's hope is that by forcing the civilians from their homes, the people would eventually turn on the militias - but against their expectations, this has not happened. If anything, civilians appear to have increased their support for the armed opposition groups. The resistance against the junta is nationwide, but their approach to toppling the military has long been fractured. The coming together of the ethnic armies, the militias, and the PDFs could produce a momentum that the junta may simply be unable to control.
CREDITS
Production: James Lillywhite
Editors: Serena Kutchinsky and David Mercer