The Trump Effect: What a Second Presidency Means for Climate Change

As COP29 approaches in Baku, the world’s focus should be on accelerating climate action. Instead, the cold reality of Donald Trump’s reelection raises existential questions with far-reaching implications—not just for the United States, but for this wonderful planet we share.

While campaigning, Trump dismissed climate change as “a big hoax,” derided wind energy and electric cars, and vowed to dismantle environmental regulations and the “green new scam” of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). His return threatens to blow up not only domestic climate policy but also the fragile international consensus to curb global heating. Both fronts deserve scrutiny.

Domestic Fallout: From a Quick Jog to a Slow Walk

On the home front, Trump’s return delivers a heavy blow to the IRA, Biden’s signature climate legislation that jump-started America’s emissions reductions. Although a full repeal is unlikely, thanks to its economic benefits flowing disproportionately to red states, the structural supports that make the IRA effective will be dismantled. Financing mechanisms, permitting reforms, and other critical enablers will be undermined, reducing the act’s momentum to a limp.

Even so, the clean energy boom won’t completely stall. Wind and solar projects remain economically attractive across much of the U.S. The economics alone will keep the ball rolling slowly, but the much-needed permitting reforms will grind to a halt.

Perhaps surprisingly the biggest threat isn’t ’drill baby drill’, Lets not forget, under Biden, the U.S. became the world’s largest producer of oil and gas, driven by a drilling boom in the Permian Basin. It's hard to see that Trump can actually increase that any further, because there's been so much acceleration under Biden already. We shall see. 

Trump’s climate policy rollback will include major cuts to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and weakened pollution rules for coal plants, vehicles, and fossil fuel extraction. While Dan Lashof, director of the World Resources Institute, claims “a bipartisan wall of opposition” will resist such measures, the reality is less certain. With control of the Senate, the Supreme Court, the White House, and likely the House, Trump faces few meaningful checks.

Electric vehicle (EV) policy presents a more complex picture. Federal incentives like the $7,500 EV tax credit are likely to disappear. However, Elon Musk’s close ties to the administration might safeguard some momentum. Tariffs on Chinese EVs could also benefit Tesla, even if they hurt domestic competitors, which may be a fine result for Elon.

International Isolation: Make China Great Again

The international ramifications of Trump’s return are catastrophic. Broadly speaking, the U.S. is likely to once again become an isolated player on the global stage, cozying up to authoritarian regimes like Russia and North Korea while alienating traditional allies. This diplomatic retreat extends across institutions: the United Nations, development banks, NATO, and the G20.

At COP29, the absence of U.S. leadership will cast  a long shadow. The world was anticipating a new set of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and possibly a U.S.-China joint agreement to set ambitious climate targets. These plans are now near dead.

The U.S.’s expected withdrawal from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), not just the Paris Agreement, would deliver an even more profound blow. Unlike Paris, rejoining the UNFCCC requires a supermajority in the Senate—a virtually impossible hurdle in the current political climate. This withdrawal could be effectively permanent.

China, meanwhile, stands poised to capitalize. Already a global leader in electric vehicles and clean technology, China views climate action not just as a necessity but as an economic opportunity. With U.S. competition sidelined, China is set to dominate global markets, leveraging its manufacturing prowess and export capabilities.

 The Global Decarbonization Trajectory: Irreversible but Slower.

Despite domestic and international setbacks, the global trajectory toward decarbonization remains unchangeable. The shift to cleaner, more efficient energy systems is driven by market forces, technological advances, and consumer demand for stability and cleaner environments.

As bleak as the U.S. position appears, the world cannot afford to retreat. COP29 must become a focal point for other nations to double down on their climate commitments.

Doubling Down at COP29?

The headline the world was waiting for was setting a new collective quantified goal on climate finance, surpassing the $100 billion target agreed in Copenhagen. Research consistently shows that climate finance at scale benefits not only developing nations but also the global economy. Developed countries have every incentive to commit over $1 trillion in climate finance, even without U.S. contributions. The economic benefits, through avoided damages and adaptation costs, vastly outweigh the financial outlay.

The Trump Administration’s withdrawal is a challenge to COP29. Let the world respond by stepping up, not stepping back.

Closing Thought 

For those who joined the climate action community more recently: People told me it was over during the 2008 financial crisis, in 2009 after Copenhagen, and in 2016 when Trump was first elected. But we’ve proven time and again that the clean energy transition is unstoppable.

Keep going.