The Shattering of the Democratic Coalition

The decisiveness of Donald Trump’s presidential victory surprised many analysts, but AEI scholar Ruy Teixeira had presciently warned throughout the campaign that the defection of working-class and minority voters could cost Democrats victory. In his postelection analysis, Teixeira documents the scale of this defeat and the failure of elite, activist-driven Democratic politics.

Teixeira’s piece is one example of how the best election analysis is happening outside the confines of the traditional media in outlets like Substack, where heterodox writers can reach their audiences directly. Read the latest edition of AEI scholar and political scientist Roger Pielke Jr.’s Substack, The Honest Broker, where he analyzes the election’s implications for policy, media, and climate politics.

Along with Pielke and Teixeira, AEI scholar James Pethokoukis is also excelling in this innovative media space. In the latest edition of his Faster, Please! Substack, Pethokoukis outlines how a Trump presidency could supercharge economic innovation, dynamism, and growth.

Conversely, some of Trump’s policies, especially on tariffs and immigration, could limit growth, increase inflation, and worsen the US debt situation. Desmond Lachman illustrates the risks if Trump follows through on these campaign proposals.

Trump’s victory reflects the growing gender divide that Director of AEI’s Survey Center on American Life Daniel A. Cox has been highlighting for years. Drawing from exit poll data, Cox analyzes Trump’s record gains among young men.

Correctly assessing real economic growth and wage gains depends on accurate measures of inflation, but the best contemporary measures used by federal statistical agencies, like the Consumer Price Index, overstate increases in the cost of living, especially in the long run. In a new Center on Opportunity and Social Mobility working paper, Director Scott Winship develops a new “More Accurate Consumer Price Index” (MACPI) to better assess long-term trends in wages, earnings, income, and wealth. Building on decades of research into the biases of existing metrics, Winship finds that from 1973 to 2023, wage gains have been dramatically understated: According to the MACPI, wages for typical wageearners rose by 61.5 percent in that period, instead of only 2 percent, as the most cited measure indicates. He finds similarly dramatic differences for wealth and household income, suggesting the federal government needs to revamp inflation measurement if we are to correctly understand the US economy’s challenges and successes.

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