Scorching Heatwaves & Green Energy Milestones: A Tale of Two Futures

In July 2024, the earth has the hottest day on record, following an entire year of record monthly temperatures. There is also promising news: California has set a precedent by achieving 100 days of 100% renewable energy generation for periods of up to 10 hours in some cases. The Golden State now has over 10 gigawatts (GW) of battery storage capacity, which has played a fundamental role in reaching this milestone.

NASA: Global Temperature Record on Monday, July 22

According to NASA’s analysis of global daily temperatures, July 22, 2024, was the hottest day ever recorded. In fact, the previous record set in July 2023 was broken for three consecutive days between July 21 and 23, 2024. This follows a long-term warming trend that can be largely attributed to greenhouse gas emissions, according to NASA. An independent analysis by the European Union Copernicus Earth Observation Programme reached similar results with only minor differences, confirming NASA’s findings.

Additionally, NASA reports that monthly average temperatures broke records for 13 consecutive months between June 2023 and June 2024. During the 12-month period from June 2023 to May 2024, average global temperatures were 2.34°F above the 20th-century baseline and 2.69°F above the 19th-century baseline.

California Hits 100% Renewable Generation for 100 Days.

On the bright side, California's renewable generation met 100% of the electricity demand at some point in the day for more than 100 days during the first seven months of 2024. While some of these periods lasted only a few minutes, others extended up to 10 hours. Specifically, 100% of electricity was being supplied by solar, wind, hydroelectric, and energy storage systems.

This milestone was possible thanks to California's recent growth in renewables. Within a single year, the state increased its grid-scale solar generation by 30% and its wind generation by 8% (Electrek). Additionally, California increased its battery storage capacity by an astounding 1,250% within five years, from only 770 MW in 2019 to 10,379 MW in 2024. To meet the 100% renewable energy target by 2045, the state needs 52 GW of energy storage (PV Magazine).

• The California Independent System Operator (CAISO) expects to add 6,813 MW of energy storage by the end of 2024, composed mostly of 4-hour lithium-ion systems.
• This expansion represents twice the battery storage capacity installed in 2023.
• Nationwide storage capacity is expected to reach 30 GW by the end of 2024, largely driven by new projects in California and Texas.

California became the first state to set a 100% renewable energy target in 2018. There are now 24 states with similar clean energy goals (Clean Energy States Alliance). 

Can we win the race to fight climate change? 

100% clean electricity is one of the low-hanging fruits in the net zero challenge. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducted a study exploring the possible pathways to 100% clean electricity by 2035. In the least-cost scenario modeled by NREL, solar and wind energy would account for 60% to 80% of generation by 2035, with a combined capacity of 2 terawatts (2,000 GW). The US would be adding 5 to 8 GW of hydropower and 3 to 5 GW of geothermal power. This scenario requires a cumulative storage capacity of 120 to 350 GW by 2035, ranging from 2-hour to 12-hour systems. The US would also require a threefold increase in transmission capacity, which represents up to 10,100 miles of new transmission lines.

The race is on, and a lot of work still needs to be done.