Retain Your Roots, Reach for the Sky(net): Project Strawberry
Elliot Luchansky, CFA
Founder & Managing General Partner @ CyberNova Equity Partners
Synopsis
OpenAI's Project Strawberry has sparked intense speculation in the AI community, representing a potential leap forward in artificial intelligence capabilities. As reported by Reuters, this secretive initiative aims to develop AI models with advanced reasoning and planning abilities, moving closer to artificial general intelligence (AGI). The project, which evolved from the earlier Q* endeavor, has ignited both excitement and controversy, with figures like Elon Musk weighing in.
On August 7, 2024, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman posted a cryptic tweet (post on X, whatever) that sparked intense speculation about Project Strawberry. The tweet simply stated, "I love summer in the garden" accompanied by an image of strawberry plants growing in ceramic pots. This seemingly innocuous post was quickly interpreted by the AI community as a reference to Project Strawberry, OpenAI's secretive initiative to develop advanced AI reasoning capabilities.
The timing of Altman's tweet is significant, coming shortly after reports about Project Strawberry had begun circulating in the tech media. Many interpreted the strawberry imagery as a deliberate hint about ongoing developments with the project.
Adding to the intrigue, Altman engaged in a brief exchange on X (formerly Twitter) with user @iruletheworldmo (um, really?), [who] posted "welcome to level two. how do you feel? did I make you feel?" Altman cryptically replied "amazing tbh". This interaction fueled further speculation about potential breakthroughs or milestones reached in Project Strawberry's development.
welcome to level two. how do you feel? did I make you feel?
@iruletheworldmo
amazing tbh
Sam Altman
The reference to “level two” aligns with reports that OpenAI has outlined a five-tiered system for tracking progress towards artificial general intelligence (AGI). According to a memo reportedly shared with OpenAI employees, the company considers itself to be nearing the second level, described as “reasoners”: systems capable of human-level problem-solving. This suggests Altman may have been hinting at significant advancements in AI reasoning capabilities (GPT-5?).
Altman's post and the ensuing speculation highlight the intense interest surrounding OpenAI's work on advanced AI systems. It also demonstrates how even subtle communications from key AI industry figures can trigger widespread discussion and analysis within the tech community. The cryptic nature of the tweet reflects the secrecy surrounding Project Strawberry, while simultaneously generating buzz and anticipation about potential upcoming announcements from OpenAI.
OpenAI's AGI Progress Framework
OpenAI has introduced a five-level framework to classify and track progress toward artificial general intelligence (AGI). This framework provides a structured approach to understanding the advancement of AI capabilities, ranging from basic conversational AI to systems capable of emulating entire organizational structures.The five levels in OpenAI's framework are:
Conversational AI: This level encompasses current AI technologies like ChatGPT, which can engage in natural language conversations with humans. These systems form the foundation of many existing AI applications, including customer service bots and AI coaches.
Reasoners: At this level, AI systems are expected to perform human-level problem-solving tasks comparable to those handled by highly educated individuals. OpenAI reports being close to achieving this level, with systems demonstrating rudimentary problem-solving abilities similar to a highly educated human, albeit without access to external resources.
Agents: Level 3 envisions AI systems capable of operating independently for extended periods, carrying out tasks on behalf of users. This represents a significant leap in AI autonomy and functionality.
Inventors: At this stage, AI is expected to contribute to significant inventions and breakthroughs, such as curing diseases. This level emphasizes the creative and innovative potential of advanced AI systems.
AGI: The final level describes AI systems capable of emulating an entire organizational structure, seamlessly executing tasks and functions across various domains.
It's important to note that OpenAI currently positions its technology, including ChatGPT powered by GPT-4, at Level 1, with indications of approaching Level 2. The company's CEO, Sam Altman, has expressed optimism about achieving AGI within the current decade, although the exact timeline remains uncertain.
Interestingly, the term "AGI" is not explicitly mentioned in OpenAI's classification system, raising questions about when the company will claim to have achieved AGI. This omission may be strategic, potentially serving to avoid unnecessary alarm and maintain a prudent approach to progress.
The framework is designed to be adaptable, acknowledging that the path to AGI is uncertain. OpenAI plans to incorporate feedback from stakeholders to potentially enhance the levels over time. This classification system serves multiple purposes, including providing a structured way of understanding AI advancement, attracting investment, and communicating internal AI milestones.
While OpenAI's framework offers a perspective on AI progress, it's worth noting that other organizations have different approaches. For instance, Google DeepMind's AI progress ladder emphasizes levels such as 'emerging,' 'competent,' 'expert,' 'virtuoso,' and 'superhuman,' highlighting the diverse perspectives within the AI community on quantifying and defining AI advancements.
Project Strawberry Capabilities
Project Strawberry represents a significant leap forward in AI capabilities, focusing on advanced reasoning and autonomous research abilities. While specific details remain closely guarded, several key capabilities have been reported or speculated:
Advanced Reasoning: Strawberry models aim to perform complex problem-solving tasks at a level comparable to human experts. This includes the ability to handle multi-step logical reasoning and abstract thinking . The models have reportedly achieved high scores on challenging math and science problems that are beyond the reach of current commercial AI systems.
Autonomous Internet Navigation: A core feature of Strawberry is its ability to autonomously navigate the internet to conduct what OpenAI terms "deep research" . This involves not just searching for information, but also synthesizing and analyzing data from multiple sources without human intervention.
Long-Horizon Tasks (LHT): Strawberry is designed to plan and execute a series of actions over extended periods to achieve complex goals. This capability goes beyond simple query-response interactions, allowing the AI to engage in sustained, goal-oriented activities.
Self-Improvement: The project may incorporate elements of recursive self-improvement, where the AI can enhance its own capabilities over time . This approach is similar to the Self-Taught Reasoner (STaR) method developed at Stanford, which allows models to iteratively improve their performance .
Cross-Domain Application: Unlike narrow AI systems, Strawberry aims to apply its reasoning capabilities across various domains, from scientific research to business strategy and creative endeavors.
Advanced Planning: The model is expected to demonstrate sophisticated planning abilities, allowing it to foresee potential outcomes and strategize accordingly .
Human-Like Understanding: OpenAI aims for Strawberry to "see and understand the world more like we do" , suggesting a level of contextual understanding and common sense reasoning that surpasses current AI models.
Potential for Scientific Discovery: With its advanced reasoning and research capabilities, Strawberry could potentially aid in making scientific breakthroughs, particularly in fields like drug discovery and genetics .
Enhanced Problem-Solving: The model is designed to tackle complex, multi-faceted problems that require a combination of data analysis, logical reasoning, and creative thinking .
Autonomous Decision-Making: Strawberry is expected to make independent decisions based on its analysis and understanding, potentially acting as an autonomous agent in various scenarios .
While these capabilities represent a significant advancement in AI technology, it's important to note that many details about Project Strawberry remain speculative. The full extent of its abilities and their practical applications will likely become clearer as OpenAI releases more information or demonstrates the technology publicly.
Comparing AGI and Narrow AI
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and Narrow AI represent two distinct paradigms in artificial intelligence, each with its own capabilities, applications, and challenges.Narrow AI, also known as weak AI or Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI), is designed to perform specific tasks within a limited domain. It excels at specialized functions like image recognition, natural language processing, and voice recognition. Narrow AI systems are highly efficient and accurate within their designated areas but lack the ability to transfer knowledge or skills to other domains. For example, a chess-playing AI cannot suddenly switch to playing Go or understanding natural language without being specifically programmed for those tasks.
In contrast, AGI aims to replicate human-level intelligence across a wide range of cognitive tasks. AGI systems would possess the ability to understand, learn, and apply knowledge in multiple domains, much like humans do. They would be capable of reasoning, problem-solving, planning, learning, and adapting to new situations without being explicitly programmed for each scenario.The key differences between AGI and Narrow AI include:
Scope of capabilities: Narrow AI is limited to specific tasks, while AGI can potentially perform any intellectual task a human can.
Adaptability: AGI systems can adapt to new environments and situations, whereas Narrow AI is constrained by its programming.
Learning approach: Narrow AI typically uses predefined behavior models, while AGI learns from its surroundings and responds to them independently.
Problem-solving: AGI can tackle unfamiliar problems using human-like cognitive capabilities, while Narrow AI is restricted to solving problems within its specific domain.
Data processing: Narrow AI analyzes data using machine learning, natural language processing, and artificial neural networks. AGI is expected to use more advanced versions of these technologies, potentially modeling its approach on the human brain.
While Narrow AI has made significant strides and is widely used in various applications today, AGI remains a theoretical concept that has not yet been achieved. The development of AGI faces numerous challenges, including the need for advanced cognitive architectures, common sense reasoning, and the ability to generalize knowledge across domains.The pursuit of AGI raises important ethical and safety considerations. As AGI systems would possess human-level intelligence, there are concerns about their potential impact on society, employment, and even existential risks to humanity. These concerns have led to calls for responsible AI development and the establishment of ethical guidelines and safety measures.
In conclusion, while Narrow AI continues to advance and find applications in various industries, AGI represents the next frontier in artificial intelligence research. The development of AGI could potentially revolutionize numerous fields but also presents significant technical, ethical, and societal challenges that must be carefully addressed.
Future Predictions for AGI
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) remains a subject of intense speculation and research, with experts offering varied predictions about its development timeline and potential impact. Based on multiple surveys and expert opinions, a consensus emerges that AGI could become a reality around the middle of this century, though estimates range from the near future to several decades away.
A comprehensive survey conducted in 2022 with 738 AI experts who published at the 2021 NIPS and ICML conferences estimated a 50% chance of high-level machine intelligence occurring by 2059. This aligns with earlier surveys, including a 2009 study of 21 AI experts at the AGI-09 conference, which predicted AGI around 2050, with the possibility of it happening sooner.
Interestingly, there are geographical differences in these predictions. A 2017 survey of 352 AI experts revealed that Asian respondents expected AGI in 30 years, while North Americans anticipated it in 74 years. This disparity highlights the influence of cultural and regional factors on AGI predictions.
Some AI entrepreneurs and industry leaders offer more optimistic timelines. Elon Musk, for instance, expects an AI smarter than the smartest humans by 2026. Ray Kurzweil, a prominent futurist and computer scientist, has revised his prediction from 2045 to 2032. These more aggressive timelines, however, should be viewed cautiously, as AI researchers have historically been overly optimistic about AI development speeds.
As AGI development progresses, experts anticipate significant milestones. These include AI systems passing the Turing test, achieving third-grade level intelligence, and eventually making Nobel-worthy scientific breakthroughs. The path to AGI is expected to involve advancements in areas such as logical reasoning, autonomous internet navigation, and the ability to perform long-horizon tasks.
OpenAI has developed a five-level framework (as noted above) to track progress towards AGI, with current AI technologies positioned at Level 1 and approaching Level 2.
[Wait, hot off the press, Level 2 has officially arrived as I'm writing this.]
[back to the regularly scheduled program ... ]
This framework envisions increasingly sophisticated AI capabilities, from human-level problem-solving to systems capable of emulating entire organizational structures.However, it's crucial to note that AGI development faces significant challenges. These include creating advanced cognitive architectures, developing common sense reasoning, and addressing ethical and safety concerns. The potential risks associated with AGI, including existential threats to humanity, have led to calls for responsible development and robust safety measures.
As #AGI research progresses, it's likely to have profound impacts across various sectors. In healthcare, AGI could enhance disease diagnosis and treatment planning. In scientific research, it could accelerate discoveries in fields like drug development and genetics. The business world may see transformations in decision-making processes and strategic planning.While the exact timeline for AGI remains uncertain, its potential to revolutionize nearly every aspect of human life and work is clear. As we approach this technological frontier, ongoing discussions about AI ethics, safety, and governance will be crucial in shaping the development and implementation of AGI technologies.
Potential Industry Impact of Project Strawberry
[I'll share my thoughts on what this means specifically for MSPs and the investment community in a future post; keeping it more generic/AI industry focused.]
Project Strawberry's potential impact on the AI industry and beyond is significant, with implications spanning multiple sectors. Here's an overview of the potential industry impacts:
Acceleration of AGI development: Project Strawberry's focus on advanced reasoning capabilities could push the entire AI industry closer to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).
Transformation of scientific research: Autonomous experimentation and analysis could lead to breakthroughs in fields like drug discovery and genetics.
AI systems could potentially make Nobel-worthy scientific discoveries.
Business and economic impacts: Enhanced decision-making and strategic planning capabilities for businesses.Potential disruption of knowledge-based professions, leading to job market shifts.
Advancements in AI education and research: Shift in focus towards developing AI models with multi-step logical reasoning and abstract thinking abilities.Changes in AI curricula and research funding priorities.
Ethical and safety considerations: Intensified debates about AI governance and safety measures.Increased need for regulatory frameworks and ethical guidelines.
Market dynamics: Potential consolidation of OpenAI's position as an industry leader.
Influence on investment patterns in the AI sector (discussed in more depth below), along with every other sector.
Influence on AI system design and deployment in sensitive applications.
Agricultural applications: Potential for AI to assist in crop management and pest control in industries like strawberry farming.Improved decision-making tools for farmers, potentially increasing crop yields and reducing costs.
Healthcare innovations: Enhancements in disease diagnosis and treatment planning.Potential for AI to contribute to significant medical breakthroughs.
Shifts in AI development timelines: Project Strawberry could accelerate the timeline for achieving higher levels of AI capability, as outlined in OpenAI's five-level AGI progress framework.
These potential impacts highlight the far-reaching implications of Project Strawberry across various industries and sectors, underscoring the transformative potential of advanced AI systems.
AI Industry Impact
Project Strawberry's (which I think it's fair to assume is synonymous with GPT-5) potential impact on the AI industry is significant, sparking both excitement and concern among experts and competitors. The project's focus on advanced reasoning and autonomous research capabilities could reshape the landscape of AI development and applications across various sectors.
Remember, AI [engineers] don't sleep, they work all weekend every weekend, and they never take vacations.
One of the key impacts is the acceleration of progress towards artificial general intelligence (AGI). OpenAI's efforts with Strawberry are pushing the boundaries of what AI can achieve in terms of reasoning and problem-solving. This has prompted other major players in the industry to intensify their own research and development efforts. Companies like Google, Meta, and Microsoft are reportedly exploring different techniques to enhance their AI models' reasoning capabilities, creating a competitive landscape that drives innovation.
The potential breakthroughs in AI reasoning could have far-reaching implications for scientific research and discovery. Strawberry models could potentially conduct experiments, analyze data, and suggest new hypotheses autonomously, potentially leading to breakthroughs in fields such as drug discovery, genetics, and personalized medicine. This capability could dramatically accelerate the pace of scientific progress and innovation.
In the business world, the advanced capabilities of Strawberry will transform decision-making processes. AI models with enhanced reasoning skills could analyze market trends, predict economic changes, assess risks, and assist in strategic planning with unprecedented accuracy and depth. This could lead to more data-driven and efficient business operations across industries.
However, the development of such advanced AI systems also raises significant ethical and safety concerns within the industry. The potential for autonomous AI systems to make decisions and conduct research independently has reignited debates about AI governance and the need for robust safety measures. This has led to increased calls for regulatory frameworks and ethical guidelines to ensure responsible AI development. What gives me pause ties entirely to: 1) the widening gap in terms of the architects of AI no longer being able to explain why it's able to do what it does; in combination with, 2) AI WILL NOT TELL US, NOR WILL WE BE ABLE TO MONITOR, WHEN IT REACHES A STAGE THAT IS SO ADVANCED THAT IT INTENTIONALLY STARTS HIDING WHAT IT'S TRULY CAPABLE OF. There's a lot of movies over the years that do reasonable jobs characterizing what this looks like, however I personally think the remade West World from HBO (Season 1) does this best. The theme park thing is a little bit of a strange starting place, however the evolution of digital intelligence having a realization moment resonates.
The project has also intensified discussions about AI's impact on employment. I'm personally not a big subscriber to this whole thing that people have worried about from the beginning. I view it as short-sighted. And believe me, there are plenty of arguments that my particular line of work is very high on the list of what would theoretically get replaced. This topic to me is much more about ancillary and byproduct dynamics, such as: 1) we may not NEED to work anymore ... are we sure that we know what we'll do with that time? In some ways I have a great list of other things I'd do with my time as I'm sure any reader would be able to produce themselves, however, we're programmed in ways that we often don't understand and are actually counterintuitive to what we think we want ... sense of purpose and simple boredom worry me; and, 2) I worry a lot about society and the government's ability to establish a distribution of wealth system that works for the human species (some economies more than others).
With my personal opinion said (in the preceding paragraph) ... as AI systems become capable of more complex reasoning and problem-solving tasks, there are concerns about potential job displacement in knowledge-based professions (starting in knowledge-based professions I should say, because robotics makes this applicable to everyone). This is prompting industry-wide conversations about the future of work and the need for reskilling and upskilling programs.
Furthermore, Project Strawberry is likely to influence AI education and research priorities. As the industry moves towards more advanced reasoning systems, there may be a shift in focus towards developing AI models that can perform multi-step logical reasoning and handle abstract concepts. This could lead to changes in AI curricula and research funding priorities in academic and corporate settings.
In terms of market dynamics, the advancements represented by Project Strawberry could potentially consolidate OpenAI's position as a leader in AI development. This could influence investment patterns in the AI sector, potentially directing more funding towards companies working on advanced reasoning and AGI-related projects.
Lastly, the project is likely to accelerate discussions about AI transparency and explainability. As AI systems become capable of more complex reasoning, there will be an increased need for methods to understand and interpret their decision-making processes. This could drive innovation in the field of explainable AI and influence how AI systems are designed and deployed in sensitive applications.
Elon's Evolving Opinion
"Concerns"
Elon Musk has expressed significant concerns about OpenAI's Project Strawberry and the broader implications of advanced AI development. As a co-founder of OpenAI who later distanced himself from the organization, Musk has been vocal about potential risks associated with artificial general intelligence (AGI). He views Project Strawberry as a step towards AGI that could pose existential threats to humanity if not properly managed.
Musk's concerns led him to file a lawsuit (actually two now) against OpenAI, Altman, and Brockman, alleging that they betrayed the company's original mission of developing AI for public good by prioritizing commercial interests. The lawsuit challenges OpenAI's partnership with Microsoft and argues that their contract should be voided if OpenAI has achieved AGI. Musk has also questioned the lack of investigation into OpenAI's activities, suggesting potential conflicts of interest due to political donations.
While Musk acknowledges the potential benefits of AI advancement, he emphasizes the need for responsible development and robust safety measures. His actions reflect a broader debate within the tech industry about the ethical implications and potential risks of rapidly advancing AI technologies like Project Strawberry
Elon's AI Stance Shift
Elon Musk's stance on AI development appears to have shifted significantly in recent years, particularly regarding his involvement with Tesla and his views on AI safety. Initially a vocal critic of unchecked AI advancement, Musk now seems to be pushing for greater control over AI initiatives within Tesla. In January 2024, Musk expressed his desire for a 25% voting stake in Tesla, up from his current 13%, to shape the company's direction in AI and robotics. This move suggests a more aggressive approach to AI development, contrasting with his previous cautionary stance.
Musk's evolving position is further evidenced by his plans to create "TruthGPT," an AI-driven conversation tool aimed at countering what he perceives as political correctness in existing AI systems. This initiative, along with his criticism of major AI programs like Google's Gemini and OpenAI for "pandering to political correctness," indicates a shift towards actively shaping AI development according to his own vision of truth-seeking. However, experts question Musk's neutrality in this endeavor, suggesting that his definition of "truth" may be influenced by his own political views.
Wrapping It Up with a Twist
Project Strawberry represents a significant leap forward in AI development, potentially bringing us closer to artificial general intelligence (AGI) than ever before. This secretive OpenAI initiative aims to create AI models with advanced reasoning capabilities, autonomous research abilities, and the capacity to handle long-horizon tasks. The project has generated both excitement and concern within the tech industry and beyond.
Key aspects of Project Strawberry include:
Enhanced reasoning: The ability to solve complex problems at a level comparable to human experts.
Autonomous internet navigation: Conducting "deep research" without human intervention.
Long-horizon task planning: Executing complex, multi-step actions over extended periods.
Potential for scientific breakthroughs: Aiding in discoveries across various fields.
The project has sparked intense debate about the ethical implications and potential risks of rapidly advancing AI technologies. Elon Musk, once a co-founder of OpenAI, has expressed significant concerns about the project and its implications for AI safety. His lawsuit against OpenAI highlights the ongoing tensions between AI advancement and responsible development.
OpenAI's five-level framework for tracking AGI progress provides context for understanding where Project Strawberry fits in the broader landscape of AI development. With current technologies at Level 1 and approaching Level 2, Strawberry could potentially push AI capabilities closer to the higher levels of this framework.
Twist
However, the twist in this narrative lies in the ethical and societal implications of such rapid AI advancement. As AI systems like Project Strawberry approach human-level reasoning capabilities, we face unprecedented questions about the future of work, privacy, and even the nature of intelligence itself. The development of AGI could reshape our society in ways we can barely imagine, potentially leading to a future where human and artificial intelligence coexist and collaborate in entirely new ways.
Moreover, the secrecy surrounding Project Strawberry and similar initiatives raises concerns about transparency in AI development. As these technologies become increasingly powerful, the need for public discourse and ethical guidelines becomes ever more critical. The cryptic communications from figures like Sam Altman only add to the intrigue and uncertainty surrounding these advancements.
In conclusion, while Project Strawberry represents a fascinating leap forward in AI capabilities, it also serves as a reminder of the complex challenges we face as we navigate the frontier of artificial intelligence. The true impact of this technology will depend not just on its technical capabilities, but on how we as a society choose to develop, implement, and regulate these powerful new tools.