Of the Proportionality Bias

My wife and I are watching Criminal Minds. It's a useful series. Good wording and thoughts. Like one scene with the dialogue about the Proportionality Bias.

We like to think that big events have big causes. We want to think that it is impossible to hijack four planes with paper cutters. We want to think that it is impossible to kill the president with a $19.95 rifle. We want to think that a 20-year-old guy can not just kill his mother, twenty schoolchildren, and six other random adults in one day, wound two others, and shoot himself. And the investigation will never be able to say why.

That's the way the brain works, evolution is a heartless bitch. We want events of reality and decisions of people and institutions to flow from one to the other, to be logical and explainable. But life is chaotic and disorderly for the most part.

There are two ways to live with it.

The first is to rationalize the incomprehensible and create conspiracy theories in the logic of the error of proportionality. For example, ‘Sandy Hook is a production.’ Yeah, tell that to the 27 people killed and their relatives... However, the conspiracy theorists did (and still do).

The second way is to think rationally. You have to accept the general unconnectedness and chaotic nature of existence (not canceling out local connections), and rely on facts. On facts. Not opinions or speculation. As Daniel Patrick Moynihan said: ‘Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.’

The second way is more challenging and requires effort. But it helps to avoid a lot of wrong conclusions and decisions. Bad decisions are often followed by bad consequences. That is a fact. And rational thinking is likely to prolong your life without dementia. This is an opinion, but it is based on several studies.