Navigating Uncertainty: understanding global risks and building resilience in a year of change – Our 2024 in review
Dr Rebecca Nadin
Executive Director and Thought Leader | Geopolitical, China and Climate Risk Advisory
In a world where uncertainty is the only certainty, 2024 has lived up to that adage. We witnessed the earliest Category 5 storm on record, elections across the globe, a global IT outage, ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Africa, and the Middle East, as well as geopolitical volatility in the South China Sea and disruptions in critical global supply chains.
As I wrote earlier this year, complexity can no longer serve as an excuse for inaction when it comes to managing today’s risks. Nor can we continue to adopt a single-threat approach to understanding risk and building resilience in an increasingly interconnected world.
This year, the Global Risks and Resilience team has worked alongside a range of partners worldwide to demonstrate how we can better understand risks and build resilience in these complex times, focusing on three main areas:
Building resilience at the intersection of environmental degradation, climate change, conflict, and fragility
Reforming international climate and resilience finance to serve the world’s most complex contexts
Understanding geopolitical risks and providing evidence-based analysis of China’s evolving role on the world stage
Our year in statistics:
Building resilience at the intersection of environmental degradation, climate change, conflict, and fragility
This year, Global Risks and Resilience continued to work with fragile and conflict-affected countries and other partners to generate new evidence and catalyse political momentum to scale up resilience in places affected by conflict, fragile governance or protracted crises, and in particular to tackle the ‘conflict blind spot’ in climate finance.
We generated new analysis and data, which we have shared with partner governments, aid agencies and international donors as part of our technical assistance through the SPARC research programme and USAID-funded project on climate resilience, among others.
In the international policy space, the team has continued to work with a range of partners to co-convene voices – from fragile governments, donors, leading aid agencies and climate funds to the hosts of COP28 and COP29 – to drive continued political momentum to the conflict blind spot. This includes co-hosting events in Wilton Park, Rome, Abu Dhabi, and at UNGA to discuss how the international aid community can move from words to action following last year’s milestone COP28 Declaration, and co-creating a new mechanism to coordinate action on this agenda. Most excitingly, at COP29 we saw the announcement of the first network which is owned and led by fragile countries. This is a major step forward for an issue which only a few years ago received very little attention from the climate community, and – I hope - will play an important role in driving increased attention to this agenda in the future. I am delighted that Global Risks and Resilience could support fragile governments to getting this network higher on the agenda.
Mauricio Vazquez Amir Khouzam Yue Cao Camille Laville Leigh Mayhew Manisha Kabra Gulati
At COP29 we also hosted the first thematic Pavilion dedicated to building resilience in fragile and conflict-affected countries. For 10 days, the Climate, Peace and Transboundary Resilience Pavilion provided a home for fragile countries and excluded voices to share their needs and strategies for scaling up climate finance and action in complex settings: convening 30+ events which brought together hundreds of representatives from fragile countries, climate funds, donor governments, aid agencies and civil society organisations. I would like to thank all our partners who hosted side events – your contributions to this agenda are much appreciated.
Recognising that the impacts of climate change are not confined to neat national borders, we have continued to work with policymakers, regional economic blocs, and climate negotiators to address transboundary climate risks through our research programmes, SPARC and Adaptation Without Borders. In 2024, we supported African negotiators in advocating for the inclusion of transboundary climate risks in key ongoing work programmes at COP29.
Katy Harris Richard Klein Sarah Opitz-Stapleton
Whilst tackling climate change is critical, it is also important to understand that it is one facet of wider global environmental degradation. So perhaps no issue better illustrates the negative impact of environmental degradation on people’s lives, socio-economic sustainability, and international relations than distant-water fishing. Early in the year, we published new research on how illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing is undermining hard-won development gains in five developing countries. Critically, the research quantifies the losses generated by these activities, making a compelling business case for reform, one which resonated widely, including coverage by BBC World Service and Mongabay.
Miren Gutiérrez Inchaurza Ilayda Nijhar-Minet
Reforming international climate and resilience finance to serve the world’s most vulnerable contexts
Small island developing states, like fragile and conflict-affected places, are another group of climate-vulnerable countries which face unique challenges in accessing climate finance and building their resilience. This year, our Resilient and Sustainable Islands Initiative (RESI) has continued to generate new evidence which has helped drive real change for these contexts.
In particular, RESI’s new research on small island developing states’ vulnerability to poverty and their direct economic losses from climate change is being used to drive organisational change: our experts are helping inform the Loss and Damage Fund’s operational modalities, and have also supported the development of the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Insurance Company’s new finance allocation methodology which has already been put to use in helping disburse funds to small island states.
Our work on small islands is also shifting the conversation around the global debt crisis, particularly as it affects small island developing states’ ability to build resilience. We helped push for the foregrounding of debt relief in the outcome document of the 4th International Conference on Small Island Developing States (SIDS4). And our letter to the UK’s new Foreign Secretary and Chancellor in the aftermath of Hurricane Beryl received welcome media attention and elicited one of the strongest signs of support on the issue from the UK Government: Chancellor Reeves responded to say the UK “will work with our international partners to deliver coordinated support on debt” and develop an international financial system that works for small island developing states.
Finally, we convened two important new events in the small islands developing states calendar: the first ever SIDS Future Forum in the lead up to SIDS4, which we hope will become a regular fixture in the calendar of small island events, and the first climate finance forum for UK and EU Overseas Countries and Territories (OCTs), which brought together senior representatives from across 25 European and British OCTs to share experiences about how best to scale up climate finance.
Emily Wilkinson Vikrant Panwar, PhD Courtney O. Lindsay (PhD, PMP) Matthew Bishop (Dr)
In other climate work: COP29 only comes once a year, but members of our team have been providing year-round support to climate negotiators – from fragile countries, the Alliance of Small Island Developing States, the Africa Group of Negotiators Expert Support and the Least Developed Countries Group – to respond to their adaptation priorities and provide technical inputs to everything from the NCQG to ongoing work programmes related to climate adaptation. And in July, Global Risks and Resilience was part of the launch for the Climate, Environment and Nature Helpdesk (CLEAN): a one-stop shop which aims to help UK government officials to identify how climate spending can be added to and strengthened in their portfolios.
Of particular note, 2024 saw the publication of a new digi-book which summarises four years of learnings by research programme GLOW on how to advance women’s empowerment in the context of the net-zero transition. Over the course of four years, GLOW’s work has informed three submissions to the UNFCCC’s Enhanced Lima Work Programme on Gender and the Just Transition Work Programme, and this year our team used GLOW work to support preparatory negotiation meetings. All credit to Mairi Dupar for her leading role in this.
Understanding geopolitical risks and evidence-based analysis of China’s evolving role on the world stage
2024 yet again reinforced the need to better understand geopolitical volatility and its associated risks. As a result, we have continued to map and explore the complex, interconnected disruptors shaping our world, from rising powers to new technologies.
One of our primary areas of focus this year has been the evolving dynamics of global trade, particularly the emerging Middle Corridor. In January, we convened an event to examine how geopolitical shocks are influencing global supply chains and the shifting trade routes that are reshaping economies across Asia and Europe. We followed this with roundtables in London and Baku, bringing together government and private sector leaders from countries including Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Uzbekistan. These discussions highlighted how geopolitical events are driving economic shifts in this critical region, with long-term implications for global trade.
Our work has also taken us to some of the world’s most geopolitically sensitive regions, including Central Asia, where we have been investigating the intersection of energy transition and connectivity. In Kazakhstan, for instance, we hosted a workshop focusing on the region’s energy future, while also engaging in broader conversations about connectivity across Eurasia, including those held in partnership with the EU and Mongolia. These efforts form part of our broader engagement on the role of geopolitics in shaping global infrastructure and trade routes. We have also been collaborating closely with the UK Government and NATO to understand the implications of China’s ambitions to diversify global trade routes and the challenges this poses to Europe’s efforts to de-risk supply chains.
Olena Borodyna Elvira Mami Ilayda Nijhar-Minet
Another key area of focus this year has been the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and its broader geopolitical implications. At the GLOBSEC summit in Central and Eastern Europe, we contributed to discussions on how geopolitical risks are influencing investment decisions, with a particular emphasis on Ukraine’s reconstruction and the wider impact on the region. These discussions are vital as countries and businesses seek to navigate the uncertainties created by ongoing global conflicts and their economic fallout.
Last but not least: through our Global China 2049 Initiative, we have been examining China’s evolving role in global geopolitics. Our approach goes beyond traditional superpower analysis, focusing instead on how China perceives global risks and opportunities. In 2024, we provided bespoke advisory and analysis to a wider range of partners looking to better understand Chinese trade and investment across Africa and Central Asia in the energy, agriculture, digital sectors and China’s ongoing efforts to enhance global infrastructure through the Belt and Road Initiative.
The growing influence of China—and its impact on global power dynamics—is becoming an increasingly important focus in our work, particularly as we look towards 2025 and beyond. We will continue to examine its role in global security, trade, and technology, including emerging challenges such as cyber, artificial intelligence, and space.
A huge thanks to all our partners for working with us to demonstrate that positive change can happen, even in the most testing of times.
Looking forward
It wouldn’t be a year in review if I didn’t plug Global Risks and Resilience’s new LinkedIn page. Since we launched this in November the page has been growing fast, with over 670 members and counting, and more than 12,500 views of our short video content.
If you are still looking for a new year’s resolution, follow us on LinkedIn to make sense of the of 2025, from China’s geostrategic ambitions and critical minerals to conflict and climate resilience building. ODI Global Risks and Resilience
ODI Global Sara Pantuliano Hans Peter Lankes Prof. Dominic McVey MBE