My top predictions for this new decade
My top predictions for this new decade, 2020-2029
- Electric vehicles will become the norm and the majority of all new cars will be electric by the end of the decade. This will cause a lot of secondary changes, such as: needing to upgrade the electrical service at the home, increasing local capacity, adding charging stations to parking lots as an incentive to attract customers, increasing the location of rural charging stations, retrofitting existing gas stations to offer charging stations.
- Significant new research will be done on battery technology leading to radical improvements in safety, energy density, cycle life, charge times, design, and manufacturing. This new technology will not only improve electric vehicles but will also drive consumer demand for home sized battery storage. These changes will have secondary impacts on how the national grids are designed, operate, and charge for electricity. For example, off-peak pricing may go way as the demand to recharge home and car batteries during the night increases.
- 5G will become a reality and will bring about significant changes to how businesses and consumers access and protect their compute resources and data. This will enable most services and security policies will be provided directly by the telco. This will also enable wearables and handheld devices to increase in popularity and function.
- The cyber attack surface including the attack on the human brain will grow. Deep fakes and manipulated audio and video will breed a general lack of confidence in what is real and what is not, leading to a desire for more verifiable content with real attribution.
- IoT based attacks will increase causing much frustration to consumers as devices are not supported, patched, or recoverable once compromised. These IoT devices will tend to have a short operational life cycle and will become disposable.
- Risks to privacy and anonymity will increase as wearable technology and handhelds becomes more prevalent and track more of what everyone does. In addition the constant breaches of systems and data will erode trust as they expose and make most private information public.
- As fraud increases there will be a greater push for verifiable attribution on all electronic interactions. This will lead to further debates and contention between privacy, verifiability, attribution, and security.
- As micro controllers and cameras increase in capacity and decrease in size they will become ubiquitous, meaning all physical movements will be tracked and recorded. The retail markets will make use of this technology as they track and monitor what you look at, shop for, and eventually buy. Imagine getting electronic just-in-time push alerts about sales on products as you walk by the display.
- Q-day will happen with the creation of a general purpose quantum computer.
- The privacy and security concerns of artificial intelligence and machine learning will increase and result in legislation and regulation.
- The long-term emotional and phycological impacts of social media and being constantly connected to a hyper connected world will increase. Parts of society will adopt a back-to-basics movement of disconnecting or being “technology free”.
- Additive just-in-time plug-n-play manufacturing will radically improve and access to solutions using more advanced materials with greater precision will become readily available to consumers in-the-home.
- Geopolitical instability will increase and the local partisan divides will expand.
- Society will continue moving towards cashless non-government sponsored peer-to-peer transactions
- The weaponization of space will become a thing and space exploration will become divisive due to costs and perceived risks vs benefits. However, a greater push for commercialization and mining of space will begin.
Things I hope for:
- Greater adoption of FIDO and FIDO2 authentication including better solutions to prevent phishing, social engineering, and email based attacks. If we could solve this, we could address the majority of current cyber attacks.
- Commodity solar cells / panels will achieve greater than 30-35% efficiency
- Deployment of metro area molten salt based breeder reactors to reduce the need on large interconnected national grids.
- Society will learn to be kind to each other, help each other, and serve one another.