Machines and Megaprojects – AI Trajectory 2023+
Machines and Megaprojects – AI Trajectory 2023+
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We stand at the cusp of a new era: The impact of Artificial Intelligence and other disruptive technologies on megaprojects is both undeniable and inevitable. Already, we are seeing extensive use of Digital Twins in industries as diverse as automotive, manufacturing, construction, healthcare, and utilities.
For those unfamiliar with digital twins, think of them as a connector between the real and digital worlds. They work by creating virtual simulations or clones of existing physical assets, hence the term. Using sensors built into the physical assets, virtual simulators mine and analyze data, showing managers how various elements and processes in the physical device work together. This visibility is critical in helping design, build, operate and maintain physical assets that deliver higher performance at lower costs.
Zoom out from digital twins of individual products or assets, and we end up with entire cities. “Smart cities” gather big data through various electronic methods (sensors, voice activation, facial recognition, etc.) The data is then used to monitor, fix, and manage the city’s assets, resources and services more efficiently. Examples of applications include power plants, water supply systems, schools, sanitation, waste management, hospitals, more efficient public transportation, smoother mobility across the city, and ultimately solving social problems such as early crime detection, prevention, and increasing public awareness of safety.
Zooming out even further, several prominent technology companies have invested billions of dollars in the metaverse. This digital twin on a global level promises to build a virtual reality that mirrors in every way our reality. It’s a clone of the world. The metaverse is bound to be a greater disruption than the Internet was in the 1990s. If it comes into being, it might transform how we live, work, and play. But even without the metaverse, megaprojects already benefit from technological advancements:
• AI makes project tracking easier through real-time project updates;
• AI improves virtual collaboration between decentralized, globally dispersed teams;
• AI improves efficiency and productivity through automation of time-consuming processes, and
• AI enhances effective decision-making through Increased transparency and data visualization.
Figure 1 below shows the considerable variation in technology spending as a percentage of revenues between different industry sectors. Banking and Securities spend on average approximately 7 percent, compared to only 1.5 percent for the construction sector. In addition, there are also considerable differences in the benefits expected from these project investments.
A deeper look at construction, the lowest-investing sector, shows how technology investments primarily focus on improving business operations and efficiency. Very little is invested in innovation and top-line growth.
To build on these findings, Figure 2 below illustrates the potential contributions of disruptive technologies to projects. As a starting point, project boards could deploy artificial intelligence and machine learning in their decision-making. Visualization tools such as digital twins can assist in building the business case. The metaverse can allow for prototyping a virtual version of the final product. AI could also be used for estimates and schedules based on previous similar projects.
A blockchain can enhance effective management of the supply chain through smart contracts, which are computer programs (transaction protocols) stored on the blockchain and programmed to run when predetermined conditions are met. Smart contracts typically serve to automate the execution of a process so that all participants can be immediately sure of the outcome, without any involvement of an intermediary or any time loss. That’s why blockchains have been called “trust machines.” The trust between economic agents that was traditionally provided by banks or notaries or lawyers, or in retail commerce by centralized actors like Amazon, Airbnb or Uber, can now be ensured by the blockchain and smart contracts running on it. Hence smart contracts lower transaction costs.
For example, say you have a shipment of rice that you want to transport from the Sichuan province in China to London via the Gulf of Aden, Suez, and Gibraltar. Traditionally you needed several dozen separate bills of lading, a separate contract for each port of call, with lawyers and notaries involved for each contract. Now, you can have a single blockchain, like a decentralized, transparent, and permanent ledger on which all transactions are recorded.
This creates trust. And that trust is not some temporary or psychological jargon. It produces actual savings. According to TradeLens, a company co-founded by shipping giant Maersk and IBM; and dedicated to digitizing the global shipping industry, some $18 trillion worth of goods trade worldwide each year. Of these, $12 trillion, two-thirds, are shipped in containers. The shipping industry has traditionally been a bit slow, to say it nicely. TradeLens says that inefficiencies in global supply chains, primarily facilitated by paper-based logistics, decrease system performance by 15 percent. Using the Blockchain allows shipping companies to manage international trade in the cloud and regain some or all of those 15 percent lost.
Similarly, in the world of megaprojects, smart contracts act as a “single source of truth.” They enable the project to track every single item and element used in the final product’s production. Such transparency can provide the project with up-to-the-minute status regarding sourcing items, production locations, completion status, risk identification, quality management, and immediate payment to vendors that make up the supply chain.
In projects where the final deliverables are hard, tangible outcomes (for example, designing and constructing buildings using manufacturing techniques), robotics and built-in sensors during production can yield real-time data for immediate updating of the project’s Gantt Chart. As one of our clients put it, “The impact of Covid is that we can’t travel to the production yards. Though not perfect, beaming real-time video from remote sites back to the head office does provide a little more reassurance of the status of key items.” This definitely sounds like the future.
The Rise of the Machines
Disruptive technologies like AI, blockchain or metaverse herald new value and wealth creation possibilities for many investors and technologists. But then there is a much larger subset of humanity, people for whom the ascendance of these new machines lives as an existential threat.
Might the housekeeping robot one day get fed up with serving the morning coffee and turn into a killer robot? From one day to the next, the robot’s owners become slaves. We are tongue-in-cheek here, but these are genuine concerns for many people. When it comes to our jobs, careers, and employment, the big questions at the back of our minds are, “Will my job become obsolete? Will I be terminated? Worse, will I be unemployable, a little pawn in a world run by a super-intelligence?” These are the ethical, moral, and practical questions in the background for which solutions have yet to be invented.
In their book, The Age of AI: And Our Human Future, authors Henry Kissinger (the former US secretary of state), Eric Schmidt (the ex-Google CEO), and Daniel Huttenlocher (a computer scientist) set out to tackle such dilemmas and describe three possible relationships we can have with disruptive technologies:
1. Confine the technology and its uses where there is a destructive potential for humanity, for example in
2. military applications.
3. Partner with the technology, much like a symbiotic relationship, where humans and machines work more effectively side by side. The autopilot on a plane is an example of this.
4. Defer to technology where it’s a better performer than we are. For example, computers do much better than us in crunching through large volumes of data and detecting hidden patterns.
AI Has a Black Box Too
Such distinctions are helpful, but something more sinister, something hidden from our consciousness, also needs to be exposed. Peter Haas, Associate Director of Brown University’s Humanity Centered Robotics Initiative, and many others working at the cutting edge of disruptive tech have become increasingly vocal about the detrimental impact of human bias unknowingly (or knowingly?) being incorporated into our algorithms.[i] These biases live as lines of code constituting fundamental decision rules.
What type of decisions are we talking about? Take an AI bias that automatically rejects your job application because you happen to be black (or white, or female, or male, or 50-plus, take your pick). Remember that a human initially programmed the machine. This means the source code reflects that person’s subconscious and unconscious beliefs,
thought patterns, and blind spots—in short, their bias.
A hidden bias that disproportionately favors one racial or age or gender group over another in crucial decisions such as hiring individuals is one thing. More chillingly, consider the impact AI bias could have in determining whether someone should be prosecuted or sentenced to prison, and perhaps even the length of their sentence.
The bias may not even stem from the source code itself but already lives in the input data fed into the machine at the outset. Worse, few people might even see their own prejudices since programmers or app developers are rarely trained to detect bias.
So yes, new technologies have enormous potential, but without solid human oversight and leadership, they could do as much harm as good. Technology is like fire: It can be used to build, or to destroy. Keeping technology in perspective and maintaining a healthy skepticism without becoming cynical is the hallmark of an intelligent leader.
And remember: Leaders are not needed when everything is going well. Leaders emerge in uncertain times, when the waters are rough, when things get out of hand. As long as everything runs like clockwork, a manager or even an administrator can do the job quite well. But when crucial things are missing, when projects are deadlocked, when
conditions are complex or chaotic, then you have to lead.
To use a picture from the football (or if you prefer, soccer) World Cup: The leader is whoever happens to have the ball. And leaders move the ball where it’s not (yet), where it’s missing. Or if you prefer an artistic metaphor: “You only painted what is!” the grumpy magician scolds the lad Chi Po-shih, who is destined to become the greatest Chinese painter of the 19th century. “Anyone can paint what is. The real secret is to paint what is not!”
How Rwanda’s vision for data and AI is revolutionizing its services and healthcare system
• A proliferation of policies around the world has restricted the movement of data across borders.
• In Rwanda, lack of legislation on the protection of data had hampered access to healthcare.
• The country has been developing new data laws and a national artificial intelligence (AI) policy to advance Africa’s innovation capacity and further develop AI systems, particularly for healthcare.
The impact of a new data protection law.
The World Economic Forum’s Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution (C4IR) Rwanda has worked with the Ministry of Information, Communication Technology and Innovation to promote adoption and minimize the risks of new technologies in the country. This collaboration has achieved breakthroughs, driving innovation primarily on data policy and AI.
Data availability is vital for a modern digital economy to facilitate access
to services such as healthcare, education, e-commerce and financial transactions. Recognizing the importance of cross-border data flows, the centre has supported the Government of Rwanda in developing its own data law to place the country at the forefront of international data legislation standards.
In October 2021, the Chamber of Deputies of Rwanda officially passed legislation on the Protection of Personal Data and Privacy that will enable trusted and secure data flows, domestically and internationally, and maximize the economic and social benefits of data-reliant technologies such as AI in the country.
"This law provides the necessary foundation to transform Rwanda into a data-empowered society, by ensuring all critical stakeholders, starting with government institutions, are attaining the gold standard in personal data protection and privacy."
Building on this new foundation of regulatory certainty for data, Rwanda has been developing a national AI policy agenda to advance Africa’s innovation capacity and further develop AI systems that are ethical and inclusive by design. In this context, the country has harnessed AI tools to improve healthcare access for its citizens through a new project integrating the Chatbots RESET framework developed by the World Economic Forum. This pilot, led by the global healthcare company Babylon, handled over 4,000 daily consultations thanks to the AI triage system that used the framework.
What’s the challenge?
Cross-border data flows are fundamental for countries and regions that wish to harness the data necessary to compete in the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Despite this reality, there has been a proliferation of policies around the world that restrict the movement of data across borders, which is posing a serious threat to the global digital economy and to the way nations can maximize the economic and social benefits of data-reliant technologies such as AI.
To realize the potential of such data-intensive technologies, sensitive data needs to be shared seamlessly and safely across borders.
What is the World Economic Forum doing about the Fourth Industrial Revolution?
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The World Economic Forum was the first to draw the world’s attention to the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current period of unprecedented change driven by rapid technological advances. Policies, norms and regulations have not been able to keep up with the pace of innovation, creating a growing need to fill this gap.
The Forum established the Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution Network in 2017 to ensure that new and emerging technologies will help—not harm—humanity in the future. Headquartered in San Francisco, the network launched centres in China, India and Japan in 2018 and is rapidly establishing locally-run Affiliate Centres in many countries around the world.
The global network is working closely with partners from government, business, academia and civil society to co-design and pilot agile frameworks for governing new and emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous vehicles, blockchain, data policy, digital trade, drones, internet of things (IoT), precision medicine and environmental innovations.
Learn more about the groundbreaking work that the Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution Network is doing to prepare us for the future.
Want to help us shape the Fourth Industrial Revolution? Contact us to find out how you can become a member or partner.
Like many countries around the world, Rwanda has been grappling with the accessibility and affordability of healthcare while facing ever-rising levels of chronic disease and severe healthcare workforce shortages. The lack of legislation on the protection of data had hampered the country from making the most of new technologies to address the scarcity of healthcare resources.
Our approach.
Rwanda’s new Protection of Personal Data and Privacy law came into effect after a comprehensive, multistakeholder process initiated by the Rwanda Information Society Authority and the C4IR Rwanda.
Through the C4IR Network, it was possible to convene an experienced group of international experts to support Rwanda explore what best-in-class legislation for data looks like. The Government of Bahrain was a key partner in this process and shared its own experience in developing similar forward-thinking legislation. The new data law will allow better integration of cutting-edge technology, such as AI, into Rwanda’s existing healthcare system.
In 2020, the World Economic Forum’s Data Policy Platform led a global
community of experts in close cooperation with the Bahrain Economic Development Board, to develop A Roadmap for Cross-Border Data Flows. The roadmap reveals world-class, best-practice levers of digitization for governments of all sizes and seeks to reduce barriers to international data flows, which are key to the development of new technologies.
Among the recommendations is the need for countries to develop baseline data protection laws to provide a legal framework for the lawful sharing of personal data.
"Building on Rwanda’s track record of reimagining regulation for emerging technologies, we will use the Centre as a catalyst for Africa to lead the world in shaping a more inclusive Fourth Industrial Revolution that addresses unique challenges and unlocks more equitable opportunities for innovation and growth that deliver societal impact."
AI for healthcare.
With a strong foundation in Rwanda’s new Protection of Personal Data and Privacy law, the possibilities of using AI in healthcare can become a reality.
In 2020, the World Economic Forum, working with a global community led by Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings, created a governance framework to facilitate the responsible use of AI in healthcare. The framework, Chatbots RESET, introduces AI to govern the responsible use of chatbots in healthcare. It also contains actions that can be taken by technology developers, medical providers and government regulators to implement the principles.
Supported by the Forum’s Platform for Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning, the C4IR Rwanda and Babylon worked closely to select and implement the framework principles.
Babylon allows Rwandans to have a consultation with a doctor or nurse via any mobile device from anywhere in the country, enabling around 4,000 consultations with patients every day. The integration of the AI-powered triage tool into this service has been the next step in digitizing the national healthcare system. The tool is being used by Babylon’s nurses to work more efficiently and make better and quicker decisions for their patients. The AI helps them ask patients the right questions, collect necessary information about their symptoms, and the technology provides insights to help choose the correct triage path.
If a follow-up appointment is needed, the patient information collected on the triage call is passed on to the doctor, saving time for both the clinician and the patient. The tool has been fully localized for Rwanda and accounts for local language, epidemiology, culture and health system pathways.
All the findings of this pilot have been collected in the report, Chatbot Reset Framework: Rwanda AI Triage Pilot.
How can you get involved?
Many countries are already working with the C4IR Network to refine their own data and AI legal and policy frameworks.
What is the Forum doing to close the gap between technology and policy?
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We are looking for visionary leaders and innovators who want to join us in our mission to guide technological development in the interest of humanity.
By joining the C4IR Network, companies and governments can:
• Co-design policy and governance protocols that accelerate the societal benefits of Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies and mitigate negative consequences
• Increase understanding of new technologies and implement them faster through pilots
• Increase their visibility as global leaders committed to using new technologies to benefit society
• Connect with cutting-edge technology innovators