Lula and China: Less excitement and more pragmatism

* I wrote this article prior to Lula's trip to China being cancelled. Nevertheless, the concerns remain, as the trip will be rescheduled

President Lula's (PT) trip to China fulfills his government's initial goal in the field of diplomacy to show neutrality between the United States and China and to seek to benefit from the relationship with each country. This was the posture of Lula's first two governments and it makes a lot of sense given Brazil's historical position of neutrality whenever possible. 

But, no matter how much the former chancellor and special advisor to the Presidency Celso Amorim plans on keeping neutral, the global geopolitical scenario has changed since Lula left the government on January 1, 2011. During Lula's recent visit to the United States, he made it clear that he will not participate in actions to contain China's influence in Latin America. It wasn't what Biden wanted to hear, but it wasn't a surprise for the American government either.

The President of China, Xi Jinping, will certainly not ask Brazil to take a public position of alliance with China and antagonism towards the United States, as Chinese diplomacy does not work that way. But a lot has changed in recent years. The world is more polarized and Lula, even with his strong interest in foreign policy, needs to be attentive to details that are normally not taken into account by close advisors. For example:

1. Tensions between China and the United States are dynamic and growing. Nerves are on edge and the Brazilian government must be very careful about what Lula says while in Beijing. A position in favor of Beijing against Taiwan would go down very badly in the international community, just as, some time ago, Lula undermined the possibility of mediating a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia from the moment that he place the responsibility for the war between the two countries. Concerning Taiwan, the ideal is to keep quiet and not mention anything along those lines. 

2. Lula and his closest advisers certainly know that “technology” is the central point of tensions between the United States and China. Huawei is seen as a big risk by Americans and Europeans, while the Lula government does not see the company that way. An eventual announcement of cooperation and/or commercialization of technological products linked to the sanctions lists imposed by the Americans against China could heavily harm the expansion of American and European companies operating in the country. In the field of telecommunications, for example, Huawei (as a supplier of 5G kits) generates a crisis of confidence in the flow of data between companies in Brazil that operate within areas operated by telecom companies and that use Huawei kits.

3. China's position in favor of Russia in the war against Ukraine is public and notorious. A joint statement between Lula and Xi Jinping along these lines, regardless of the message, would not be well received internationally and would be seen as a diplomatic error. Given the Chinese president's position on the war, anything that comes out of his mouth on this issue with Lula at his side would be detrimental to the Brazilian president.

Despite these “operational” risks, travel remains extremely important for the country. As Brazil's main economic partner, China inevitably encourages the visit of a large Brazilian delegation. While the agreements that will be discussed and signed around agribusiness and trade will undoubtedly be positive, those that may arise in the areas of cooperation in science and technology deserve greater attention to risks.

Brazilian diplomacy is used for presidential missions filled with joy and good news. Lula's trip to China will contain all of this, given the president's profile. However, since Lula's trip to Iran in 2010 to try to close a nuclear deal alongside Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Brazil has not had a president visiting a country where silent risks can become costly in the face of a poorly placed sentence or a smile given at the wrong time.