How Long before Citizens Say ‘Not in Our Name’ When it Comes to Climate Change?

The world’s governments and tens of thousands of observers are gathering in Dubai over the next two weeks for international climate negotiations hosted by the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The decision of the UAE to appoint the head of their national oil company to lead the procedures taking place in Dubai has sparked criticism. In 2015, 197 of these Member States adopted the Paris Agreement on climate change, committing to cut carbon pollution and protect nature while at the same time adapting to allow citizens to live in an already changed world with more intense fire seasons and stronger and more unpredictable storms, among other impacts.

With the growing evidence of the climate crisis across the world, citizens are ever more aware of its impacts and they want concrete action. This may explain why, on the first day of COP28, governments agreed on operationalizing the Loss and Damage Facility as an opening gambit, unlocking the potential of more ambitious outcomes in two weeks when the talks wrap up. There are hopeful signs that society understands and is beginning to come to judgment on the need to transition our economy from one based on fossil fuels to one built around renewable energy. We see the contours of a global consensus beginning to take shape for this low-carbon future.

This is borne out of evidence seen over the last eight years that citizens around the world have become increasingly concerned – some have even said “alarmed“– about the pace and impact of climate change, with surveys and polls bearing this out. According to a recent poll across all regions of the world, over four in ten people now say they have been greatly affected by climate change, which suggests that future discounting may become less prevalent given the increasing immediacy of the issue.

When the 30,000 people interviewed were asked if an energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables was needed, 94 percent said it was compared to 6 percent who thought the opposite. In the Global South there is near unanimity on the need for a shift to a green economy. Even in Saudi Arabia, 95 percent of people believe that this transition is necessary.

Pushback is strongest in the United States where 9 percent of the population thinks this green transition is not needed. It is also significant in Australia (17%), the Netherlands (13%), Germany (12%), and France (10%) ‒ all countries where the climate change issue has been more highly politicized and where there have been popular protests against putting a price on carbon.

The question now is what policies best deliver the most efficient environmental as well as social returns on decarbonization and which of these have the best chance of widespread societal support so we can collectively move at pace. The global public is highly supportive of investing in nature-based solutions and shifting agricultural practices; they are much less supportive of a carbon tax.

So why then are some governments watering down climate ambition or delaying efforts in cutting carbon pollution or invoking protections for nature? Instead they should be convincing industry and consumers of the need to make sometimes painful changes, emphasising the benefits of protecting the climate and nature, something that most people clearly agree with despite the noise of sometimes loud groups expressing minority opposition views.

People are concerned about the impacts yet to come as a consequence of runaway climate change – increased poverty, difficulty accessing food and water, and other necessities. They are also worried about the impacts of climate change on their wellbeing and on the global economy.

But they do not think it is primarily their job to mitigate these effects. They believe that governments and corporations need to set the actions in motion to tackle climate change and limit its impacts.

However, the good news is that people across the world are willing to play a part, but they need to understand what governments are doing and they need to see a clear path to a role they can play without diminishing public and personal wellbeing.

As world leaders gather in Dubai for the international UN climate negotiations, they will be urged on by King Charles and legions of progressive business leaders. But will government actions save our economy and our livelihoods? Or are they showing up to save face? Perhaps they should imagine the fury that could be unleashed if they fail to deliver.

At some point, Thomas Jefferson’s belief that “Whenever the people are well informed, they can be trusted with their own government; that whenever things get so far wrong as to attract their notice, they may be relied on to set them to rights” may be put to the test. Governments need to come out of Dubai with a promise of life- and economy-saving action, and not just face-saving, or citizens may soon be saying ‘not in our name’.

Bernice Lee OBE is the Hoffmann Distinguished Fellow for Sustainability at Chatham House.

Chris Coulter is the CEO of GlobeScan.