Has The Music Business Peaked?

Has the music industry peaked? Ha! I’ve been away for a while. Did you miss me the past few weeks? ;)

On his podcast, The Town, Matt Belloni recently asked, “Has The Music Business Peaked?” I think there’s a reason this hasn’t been showing up in my feed: it’s an absurd question.

Matt writes for The Puck, which claims to be a digital magazine for plugged-in people and insiders in sports, music, entertainment, and finance. But when they title an episode like this and bring in Lucas Shaw, a reporter from Bloomberg, to be their insider, it shows how off-base this podcast is. Always the critics, never the practitioners.

At the time of the ep’s release, Universal Music Group’s stock had dropped 20% based on a feeling that streaming services are saturated and investors aren’t seeing a clear path to more windfalls. While streaming services may be reaching a point of saturation in terms of new users, these platforms are steadily innovating. Kudos to Spotify, Netflix, Apple, Meta, and Amazon for leading the charge with amazing new content ideas, formats, and technologies that are all creating better consumer experiences. I believe the next evolution of streaming and streaming services is right around the corner.

Secondly, the music business is bigger than UMG or any DSP. Despite its imperfections, there has historically been upside in the music industry. It’s remarkable, really, how this business always lands on its feet.

Yes, there’s a push away from major labels and toward artists retaining ownership of their IP. The deals are more artist-friendly and old business practices are sunsetting, hopefully taking the nasty sunset clauses with them. The indie music industry is steadily growing and the major labels, on the whole, are seriously thriving, even if Universal had a sharp correction.

There are so many great new artists breaking bigger than ever, like Chappell Roan, Beabadoobee, Cash Cobain, and Danny Ocean. It’s amazing how much great new music is coming out.

The live market is also on the up. The threat of Ticketmaster and Live Nation breaking up is real, but truthfully we need some innovation to create a better live experience. That said, there are tours doing well and more big ones on the horizon, like the long awaited Bieber “Faith” World Tour and Rihanna’s “R9 Kiss It Better” World Tour. Tay-Tay’s headed back stateside as she wraps up the Eras tour, too. All of these are going to be massive for the live industry.

I’m also seeing music tech companies pushing the boundaries of gaming, next gen universes (Roblox), AR/VR, Blockchain, digital collectibles, play-to-earn, fan clubs, ticketing, livestreaming, companion chats (Siri, Alexa, and ChatGPT) and, of course, ethical AI music creation for brands and agencies.

Social media is also booming with music’s help and new deals are coming together with the majors and Meta around WhatsApp, IG, Reels, Threads, and YouTube. Something is going to happen sooner than later with TikTok, which will lead to another big wave of opportunities depending which way the wind blows.

Brand partnerships are happening in every direction and many are quite innovative and cool. Artists are launching brands, artist content shoots are thriving, and musicians remain the ultimate creators, seeing a lift from the influencer world but doing it so much better.

The catalog business is still fascinating and growing as savvy publishing companies are helping artists breathe new life into their catalogs. There are more biopics being made and documentaries coming. I can’t wait for the Bob Dylan film!

I could go on. I mean, didn’t you feel the impact of music at the Olympics!?

The bottom line is music has not peaked and, frankly, I don’t know if it ever could. More people are making music, more people are listening to music, merch is growing, collectibles are going crazy, and old formats like vinyl and cassettes continue to matter.

It’s a great time to be in music and the industry is more relevant than ever. Sure, the VMAs aren’t what they used to be and stock prices fluctuate, but how could anybody claiming to be an insider actually think that this industry revolves around Universal’s stock price?! Matt Belloni and Lucas Shaw should have their podcast canceled and their column thrown in the trash! Go pontificate with some catfished Forbes byliners, would ya!? Lmao. We have a long road ahead and it’s paved with gold (records) if you ask me.

End rant. Hope you’re having a nice summer! 

Jesse Kirshbaum

Co-Founder of Nue