🗞 Goodbye Summer
Happy new iPhone day 👋
I took some time off to enjoy the last bit of summer but am finally back just in time for a new iPhone event. We all know what to expect - more AI - and I'm looking forward to seeing more of the AI Apple promised us at the beginning of the summer shipping.
Really, I'm even more interested in seeing the impact it will have on downloads and revenue of existing AI apps. More on that in the future.
Ariel.
P.S. - Want to get more downloads from your Apple Search Ads campaigns without spending more money? Check out this guide with seven techniques you can use right now.
In this newsletter:
X's mobile revenue hits double-digits
The highest-earning games in the world
The most downloaded games in the world
Royal Match hits a royal milestone
The best summer ever (for Airbnb)
Quick take
The Mobile Revenue Index in the US is finally in the green after four weeks of declines across both stores. Summer is officially over.
Insights
1. Will Getting Banned in Brazil Hurt X's Bottom Line?
Welcome to September, the end of summer in the western hemisphere and also the end of August, which means it's time for our monthly check-in on X's revenue.
And while I'm looking, I'll also answer a question I was recently curious about - how will X's revenue be impacted now that it's banned in Brazil, one of the biggest driver of downloads on Android?
According to our App Intelligence, X crossed a big milestone in August earning a whopping $10.8M of net revenue - what Elon gets to keep after Apple and Google take their fees. That's a very healthy increase of 21% from July, which was X's previous high watermark and the first month of revenue growth since early 2024.
The majority of the new revenue came from the App Store with Google Play also increasing, but not by much. That's while downloads from both the App Store and Google Play dropped slightly from July - A trend most apps are experiencing (except for AI, more on that in the near future).
Demand for X is not following any standard pattern in terms of downloads and revenue because it's become extremely political and for many, the decision of whether to be on or off the platform is more about what it symbolizes than the value it provides. For that reason, it's hard to predict what'll happen, but it's clear that even with this uncertain future, X follows the trend we see with many other apps where downloads are dropping and revenue is growing.
Oh, Brazil!
Without getting into the politics of things, or trying to estimate the downloads that won't be, I was curious if there will be an immediate impact on X's bottom line now that it isn't available in Brazil. For context, X was downloaded 5.4M times in Brazil so far in 2024, according to our estimates.
The answer is pretty simple - no.
Although X made its way into millions of devices in Brazil, it didn't open many pockets. Looking at our App Intelligence, X earned 141K of net revenue from the App Store and Google Play in August - just a little over 1% of total revenue. A rounding error, as some would say.
And that was X's best month of revenue from Brazil. I doubt Elon would notice.
2. Another Revenue Record for the Top 10 - The Highest Earning Games in the World
The numbers are in, and July was another massive month for spending on mobile games. But more on that in a moment. For this ranking, we're focusing on last month's top titles by net revenue for their developers — meaning the amount left after Apple and Google's fees are subtracted from what gamers spent.
地下城与勇士 (DNF Mobile), or Dungeon Fight Mobile, was July's top-earning mobile game globally — just as it was in June, the month after its debut. This achievement brings the game's total monthly net revenue to $276 million, with July's $143 million representing an increase of $10 million over June's total. (This is just from iOS in China, making the game's dominance even more impressive!)
Mobile gaming royalty 王者荣耀 (Honor of Kings) continued to hold onto a spot in the top five many years after its initial release, moving back up a spot to #2, surpassing last month's runner-up, Monopoly Go! — as if it had drawn the “Do Not Pass Go” card.
However, Monopoly Go! wasn't left too far behind, as the wildly successful mobile adaptation of Monopoly took third place for July. Royal Match and Roblox followed in fourth and fifth place, respectively, notably holding the same ranks they obtained in June.
Altogether, net revenue from July's top 10 highest-earning titles combined for a record amount, totaling $894M, according to our App Intelligence. That's $64M more than June's record revenue, or an increase of 8% month-over-month.
As we head into the all-important fourth quarter, revenues historically see a year-end lift across categories, so this might not be the last record spending month in games we see out of 2024.
3. Players Revolt Against Always Online Games - The Most Downloaded Games in the World
The numbers have been pored over and the results are in on July's most downloaded games, which we've ranked below.
Topping the combined ranking is Offline Games - No Wi-Fi Games with 29 million downloads across iOS and Google Play. As the title suggests, this is a collection of games that don't require an internet connection (unlike an increasing majority of top games, which are unplayable in many underdeveloped regions around the world). This ad-supported collection was actually launched a year ago in August 2023 and offers a single $5.99 in-app purchase to disable ads.
Perennial download champ Subway Surfers might have been knocked down a rung to 2nd after ranking 1st in June, but that doesn't mean it lost traction with players. In fact, it scored 22 million downloads, the same amount as the month before.
Yes, Subway Surfers wasn't the most downloaded game for the first time since April, and that was a blip in Subway Surfers' domination, which dates back to 2022.
Looking at the rest of the top five, Roblox gained a position to reach 3rd, while Pizza Ready delivered 16 million downloads, sliding from 2nd in June to 4th last month. Meanwhile, the tongue-twistingly titled Manage Supermarket Simulator remained in the top five, rounding it out after being ranked 3rd in June.
Summing up downloads for the top 10 overall, our estimates show a total of 167 million globally for July, just slightly surpassing June's total. We'll be watching to see if this growth trend continues unabated through the end of 2024.
4. Puzzle Powerhouse Royal Match Crosses $3B
Royal Match has quietly climbed the top charts in the last few years, becoming a major contender in the puzzle genre, and capturing millions of downloads and billions of dollars in the process.
This August, the title that's been glued to the top of our highest-earning games series reached a big milestone and got there faster than ever before!
Let's take a look at how Royal Match got to $3B of estimated gross revenue.
In case you're not familiar, Royal Match is a match-3 free-to-play puzzle game with lots of in-app purchase options.
The game was released in 2021 and its growth team hit the ground running, crossing 10M downloads in its first six months on the App Store and Google play.
Revenue took a bit longer to build up, but once it did, it didn't stop.
According to our App Intelligence, by April of 2023, Royal Match's lifetime gross revenue reached $1B (yes, billion) - 27 months (two-ish years) after its release.
More revenue meant more ads and with the sharp rise of downloads in 2023 revenue was rising faster than ever.
So fast that Royal Match reached $2B of gross revenue within nine months, in January of 2024. Three times faster than before.
But it didn't stop there.
The title just hit a new milestone - $3B of gross revenue, that's what players spend in the app and before Apple and Google take their fees. It got there just seven months after its last milestone.
At this rate, we may see another billion before the end of the year!
Royal Match's user base is diverse but is dominated by users in the US and India who make up roughly 14% of all nearly 300M downloads the game received since launching each. The only two countries to have a double-digit share.
Revenue, however, comes predominately from the US App Store, which explains Royal Match's absurdly high Apple Search Ads spend where it commands the highest share of impressions across hundreds of very popular keywords like "games", "puzzle games", and "free games".
Japan, the UK, Germany, and South Korea round out the five highest-earning countries for the game.
One important thing to note is that while revenue is on what looks like a meteoric rise, downloads have been less than exciting.
Our estimates show that so far this year, Royal Match's downloads dropped 58% after peaking in February.
The title ended August with 7.6M new downloads. The lowest it's been since March of 2023.
Don't be alarmed, however. Most apps and games are following a similar trend.
5. Airbnb Ends Its Best Summer To Date
Airbnb has been in the news a lot recently, and not just because of founder mode.
For a few years, I used Airbnb's downloads as a proxy for the impact of lockdowns on society, seeing demand dip and then rise.
Lockdowns are very much behind us but Airbnb's downloads are still a good proxy for travel - and by its summer numbers, it seems everyone is traveling somewhere!
See, the Summer of 2024 has been Airbnb's biggest in terms of new downloads! Our estimates show that between June and August, Airbnb's mobile apps saw 19.1M new downloads from the App Store and Google Play.
I compared downloads to the same three-month period (aka "Summer") every year back to 2018 and noticed something interesting - while Airbnb's downloads rose after lockdowns, the growth stopped in 2023. Summer downloads actually shrunk a teeny tiny bit when compared to 2022.
That's why 2024's 24% increase is even more of a win for Airbnb.
Year-over-year change:
2019: +14%
2020: -35%
2021: 32%
2022: +62%
2023: -1%
2024: +24%
In 2018, Airbnb saw 9.8M downloads and managed to push them into the double-digit region by 2019, which made 2020's 35% dip sting even more. But the summer of '21 undid that, and the summer of 2022 gave Airbnb the most growth - in % - it's ever seen at 62%.
Airbnb is truly one of a kind. Not that there aren't others like it out there, but they're not on most people's minds like Airbnb is. That, combined with the increase in mobility post-lockdowns, means Airbnb will continue its growth (and may even make its way back to NYC).
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And that's all I have for you this week. I hope you've learned something new and please share the newsletter. Check out our App Intelligence to get ahead of your competitors.
Note: All figures included in this report are estimated. Unless specified otherwise, estimated revenue is always net, meaning it's the amount the developer earned after Apple and Google took their fee.