With fossil fuels still outpacing renewables, chances of net-zero by 2050 slim

While echoing the ever-increasing warnings about the closing of the window of opportunity to reach net-zero by 2050 targets, DNV points out in its new Energy Transition Outlook that the transformation to low-carbon and green sources of supply is still in the starting blocks, as global energy-related emissions, which keep going up, are only likely to peak in 2024.

Despite the downward trend in energy-related emissions across many nations and communities, which came into being with accelerated deployment of renewable capacity, renewables have met only half, or 51%, of new energy demand during the five-year period from 2017 to 2022 while fossil sources took care of the remaining 49%.

As a result, DNV comes to the conclusion that limiting global warming to 1.5°C is “less likely than ever,” as CO2 emissions need to be cut in half by 2030 to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement. Although global emissions will fall, the report forecasts that this will not happen fast enough to usher in net-zero by 2050.

In line with this, the outlook shows that CO2 emissions will be only 4% lower than today in 2030 and 46% lower by 2050, which is associated with 2.2°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century. According to DNV, it will take the next 27 years to move the energy mix from the present 80% fossil and 20% non-fossil split to a 48/52 ratio by mid-century.

However, the report does highlight that natural gas is losing its status as a ‘bridging fuel’ for the energy transition journey, even though renewables are not yet closing in on replacing fossil fuels in the global energy mix. The lion’s share of primary energy supply additions from 2025 onward is expected to come from non-fossil sources, primarily wind and solar, which will grow nine-fold and 17-fold, respectively, between 2022 and 2050.

The clean technology race amongst the advanced economies is anticipated to spearhead global learning benefits in hydrogen and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, but DNV underlines that de-risked financing is needed to accelerate the pace of the transition beyond leading regions.

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Thanks for reading this newsletter and stay tuned for our next edition!

Kind Regards,

Melisa Čavčić

Senior Editor at Offshore Energy Today

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