Climate change: Are our cities prepared?

Climate change may be described as a shift or variation in average weather patterns in context of statistical distribution of weather conditions over numerous years of the earth’s existence. This change (typically long lasting) may be caused by several biotic, geological, atmospheric, astronomical and environmental factors observed over a period of time. Commonly referred to as global warming, there is significant evidence to suggest that human activity is amongst the highest contributors to ongoing climate change.

Human settlements most importantly cities which are dense activity centres naturally form a part of the problem statement. Global urbanisation trends suggest that 2/3rd of the world’s population may live in cities by 2050. As first responders to the impact of climate change during any natural disaster, cities produce about 70% of all green house gas emissions caused by human activity. According to a global survey conducted in 2014 (The Urban Climate Change Governance Survey), based on responses from 350 cities worldwide, over 260 cities reported that they tackle climate change as part of their mainstream planning with most in the group attempting both mitigation and adaptation measures. Interestingly though, only a small fraction of around 70 cities reported tangible connections between response to climate change and achieving other local development goals, particularly economic objectives. Cities were also prominently discussed during the Paris climate conference in 2015 where hundreds of mayors pledged to reduce emissions and improve resilience in their respective cities. About 681 cities are now represented in this global ‘Compact of Mayors’ including 5 Indian cities of Gwalior, Panaji, Patna, Rajkot and Shimla. There are several other pacts and alliances that have come together to tackle climate change for cities.

Urban India is no stranger to climate change impact. Changing weather patterns over the last decade in general and recent months in specific clearly point to the vulnerability of our cities in dealing with the scale and intensity of this problem. Published research indicates a general rise of 2-4 degrees in temperature, increase of 7-20% in annual precipitation with increased intensity in riverine flooding, cyclones, storm surges, earthquakes and sea-level rise as a result of climate change. Researchers have commented that adaptation to climate change in India ‘cannot be achieved without addressing the institutional weaknesses in managing urbanisation and ensuring service delivery, alongside the necessary planning and regulatory frameworks.’ Furthermore, as a developing nation, our cities in India are undergoing rapid change, development and evolution. As the Indian population increases and urbanises, it is estimated that we may have over 70 cities with a population of over a million inhabitants each by 2025. Although rapidly increasing the total carbon footprint of our cities is still relatively low. Functioning as economic engines of the country, 50% of India’s GDP comes for her cities. Adverse impact from natural disasters on infrastructure, property and business account for severe losses in impacted cities. Climate related disasters cost close to USD 300 Bn. for Asia alone in 2011. An inability to manage the mitigation and adaptation challenge alongside accelerated growth may translate into an economic and political concern if the impact of climate change erodes the country’s economic future, competitiveness and affects the livelihoods of its inhabitants.

Broadly speaking, the following parameters would contribute significantly in building the resilience of any city:

1.)  Energy

2.)  Transport

3.)  Food Security

4.)  Economics/Business

5.)  Social and cultural make up

6.)  Environment

7.)  Waste management

8.)  Water management

9.)  Disaster response to hazards

10.) Governance

In stringing together all of the above parameters, it is of no surprise that urban planning as a discipline has emerged centre stage to address mitigation, adaptation and growth in dealing with climate change and its impact. Einstein once said – “Problems cannot be solved at the same level of awareness that created them.” While general awareness about climate change has percolated via the scientific community, furious political debates, global pacts, popular culture, social media and devastation seen through natural disasters; less has perhaps translated into the mainstream when it comes to planning our cities in India. Far from proactively solving the problem, our current reactive preparedness (the lack of or ad hoc at best!) to face the ongoing impacts of climate change remains a looming question. There may be several reasons for this including fractures in the value chain connecting the above parameters; lack of – understanding, urgency, expertise, empowerment, progressive policy, flexibility, market mechanisms and; inconsistent governance and poor administration to name a few.

In a published study on the climate vulnerability profiles of 20 Indian cities (coastal, hill, riverine and mixed), comparative analysis revealed that coastal cities were affected by very high cyclonic wind velocities; hill cities were most affected by landslides and; flooding, water scarcity, increased temperatures and sudden bouts of drought or high precipitation were common to many cities. The analysis on infrastructure found that not a single city out of the 20 had 100% coverage to cater to energy, transport, food, waste and water management needs of its inhabitants. Socio economic variables showing inequitable density distribution per household had clear correlations with potential stresses on localized infrastructure for some of these cities. Upward trends in motorization and increased number of cars per household would further result in congestion, pollution and dependence on fossil fuels. On the governance side the study found that while authorities have responded to some of these concerns, at the State level it was difficult to institutionalize consolidated initiatives for the city as they may require large investments. Local government initiatives were seen to be more successful. The study recommended upgrading infrastructure to reduce disaster risk; rejuvenation of water bodies; enabling climate conscious development and spatial planning; enhancing institution and policy coordination at the city level through measurement and monitoring sustainable urban development indicators and; resource allocation to oversee and manage the mainstreaming of sustainable and resilient measures at the city level.

To make the point, it may be important to understand what a resilient city looks or lives like? Simply put, across parameters it is a city that is:

1.)  Sustainable

2.)  Equitable

3.)  Integrated

4.)  Ecological

5.)  Efficient

6.)  Flexible

7.)  Innovative

8.)  Diverse and Vibrant

9.)  Engaged and Participative

10.)Prepared

These are basic tenets of good and responsible urban planning. For us in India, the answer to the looming question may lie in making climate change a primary consideration for urban planning thereby connecting the value chain across all parameters. These considerations may not necessarily be administered by the centre or the state but under their broad guidelines, directly implemented by cities in alliance with its stakeholders to build their resilience competitively. It would be no easy feat by any means, but a responsive start and a consolidated effort nationally is essential and need of the hour. It would require for all stakeholders from both the public and private sectors to come together and commit to common goals in a corruption free environment aided by market and regulation efficient progressive policy framework. Experts from the private sector can play a key role in participating with their government counterparts to chart progressive policy and draft win-win propositions for all stakeholders. The private sector in India, particularly conscious real estate developers, architects, urban planners, engineers and contractors have made commendable efforts to play their role in finding sustainable solutions for prevailing urban issues. Large corporations in India have already committed to green goals with timelines on when they will become carbon neutral, water positive and recycle enough to offset their waste to landfill. Some corporations are also allocating their CSR monies to improve sectors, which will help combat climate change. There are recent examples of voluntary private sector led initiatives like the Sustainable Housing Leadership Consortium (SHLC) convened by the International Finance Corporation (a member of the World Bank Group) under the Eco-Cities program supported by the European Union to mainstream green homes. Founding members include Godrej Properties, Mahindra Lifespace Developers, Shapoorji Pallonji Real Estate, Tata Housing and VBHC Value Homes. It also has financial institutional partners like HDFC Limited and PNB Housing Finance Corporation. To tackle climate change sensibly, Einstein’s theory of awareness now demands a paradigm shift in our Indian mindset on how sustainably we are collectively able to think about the economic engines of our country to manage mitigation, adaptation, future growth and sustenance in the era of climate change.

This article, authored by Anubhav Gupta as Guest Columnist was printed in Business World - BW Smart Cities World, September-October 2017 issue, Pg.64-65

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