Zeph C.’s Post

The Chinese military is drawing its own lessons from the war in Ukraine. The Diplomat has a series, and this one is focused on Chinese-language analysis of Russian attack helicopter operations in Ukraine: “Helicopters appear to be at the very heart of any Chinese strategy to conquer Taiwan, since they can provide both extensive air cover and firepower for amphibious forces coming ashore in a hypothetical Taiwan scenario.”   “One Russian helicopter, in particular, has garnered extra Chinese attention: the Ka-52 Alligator. ”   “The article recapped the struggles of Russian helicopter aviation during the first phase of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. U.K. MOD data was cited to suggest that as many as 39 Ka-52s might have been lost in the early part of the Russian invasion – amounting to a quarter of the Russian fleet of Alligators. … it[] said that the helicopter had performed below expectations and that Russia would have trouble replacing such high losses.” “However, the article noted that assessments of the Ka-52 significantly altered after its strong performance during Ukraine’s summer counter-offensive. The Alligator attack helicopters were credited with destroying high numbers of Ukrainian armored vehicles” “The Chinese analysis posited that the new effectiveness of these Russian attack helicopters can be attributed to the development of ‘appropriate tactics.’ Initially, the Alligators were simply ‘too exposed to fire from the Ukrainian armed forces’ battlefield air defense network…’” “The Chinese - also noted that the Russian Ka-52s have shown great effectiveness in night operations. The analysis explained that Russian attack helicopters have been assisted by other Russian tactics on the battlefield, including especially dense belts of land mines, which repeatedly stalled Ukrainian armored thrusts and made their tanks and AFVs vulnerable targets for the Alligators.” “Russians have apparently improved both the sensors and their laser-guided munitions fired by the Ka-52, so that it can destroy targets at greater distances. The Chinese analysis explained that when the helicopter is delivering strikes from 8-10 kilometers away, the Ukrainian target ‘really cannot either see or hear the Russian attack helicopter.’” “The article reported that the Russian military is now upgrading the sensors and weapons to track multiple targets at ranges exceeding 30-50 km. -Chinese strategists will be interested to see how such longer-range helicopter attack systems can be combined with improved drone surveillance” “The Chinese - focused on the summer 2023 exploits of the Ka-52, also claimed that Russian attack helicopters have improved their battlefield survivability through improved use of [EW]” “Chinese strategists are extremely keen to find ways to foil such defenses to bring China’s airpower, both fixed wing and rotary wing, to bear on a prospective cross-strait military scenario.” #warinukraine #indopacific #taiwan #china #usmilitary #airpower

OK, calling it a "victory" is a stretch, but if we know anything about Iran and Russia, it is that mostly they understand a sock in the jaw. Wish it weren't that way, but it is. So: "On Feb. 2, U.S. forces dropped more than 125 precision munitions on 85 targets in Iraq and Syria belonging to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force and its affiliated militia groups. ... According to U.S. Central Command: “The facilities that were struck included command and control operations centers, intelligence centers, rockets, missiles, unmanned aerial vehicle storage, and logistics and munition supply chain facilities of militia groups and their IRGC sponsors who facilitated attacks against U.S. and Coalition forces.”" "Five days later, a U.S. airstrike in Baghdad killed a senior commander of Kataib Hezbollah, one of the most dangerous Iranian-backed terrorist groups. This demonstrated not only how precise U.S. weapons systems are but also how successful U.S. intelligence was in tracking the movements of senior Iranian operatives." "The clear message was that other Iranian commanders would be next if they didn’t knock off their attacks against U.S. troops. And guess what? Iran did stop. Things could change at any moment, but a senior U.S. defense official told me last week that there hasn’t been an Iranian-directed attack against a U.S. military base in either Syria or Iraq since Feb. 4. By contrast, there were at least 170 such attacks between Oct. 7 and Feb. 4." Message sent. Stopped for the moment. Again, I wish it weren't so. I wish violence on both sides was off the table. And US foreign policy isn't blameless after 60 years of being a sometimes brutal policeman. More, canceling the Iran Nuclear Agreement makes all these moves far more risky. But worth noting, for those who think we are "being too weak" -- this has been an effective deterrent for now.

In a concerning development, the Islamic Resistance of Iraq has officially claimed responsibility for a drone attack targeting a “vital target” in southern Israel. This incident signifies a notable escalation in military actions linked to the coalition of armed groups, representing the sixth drone attack on the same day. Although the specific target was not disclosed, the armed group emphasized their intention to demonstrate military capabilities amid heightened regional tensions. In response, the Israeli military confirmed the successful interception of an incoming drone, underlining its commitment to national security and protecting critical infrastructure. This drone attack is part of a troubling trend, as various armed groups increasingly leverage drone technology in military operations, raising alarms about civilian safety and the risk of escalated hostilities. The situation illustrates the growing complexity of the regional security landscape. As the conflict unfolds, international observers are closely monitoring the potential ramifications for regional stability and the likelihood of retaliatory actions. The dynamic nature of these events highlights the urgent need for diplomatic interventions to address the underlying tensions fueling violence. 🔗 Learn more about the implications of recent conflicts in the region. https://lnkd.in/gnbd9nY8 #swifteradio 

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MY UKRAINIAN CHRONICLE - WAR YEAR 3 4.-5.6.2024 Russia’s ground attack in the east of Ukraine grinds on, with the same “meat wave” attacks keeping the daily casualty rate among Russian troops at way above 1000. Reportedly Russian troops have occupied additional territory over the last days around the town of Ocheretyne west of Avdiivka which was occupied by Russian troops already weeks ago – marginal movements. Near Kharkiv Russia’s ground offensive has ground to a halt with reports that some Russian troops have started to dig in to limit their losses and to protect against Ukrainian drones and artillery. In addition, Ukrainian troops have started to hit Russian reserves and attack units on Russian territory, including missile launchers used for attacks against Kharkiv: >> Military bloggers (e.g. the Colonelcassad Telegram channel) report that during Ukraine’s attack on the Belgorod region with HIMARS, the positions of Russia’s S-300/S-400 system was hit. At least one launcher and other equipment were destroyed. The Russian Defence Ministry on 3 June reported that six Olkha MLRS rockets were destroyed and four Ukrainian drones were shot down over the Belgorod region on 3 June in the evening. << While there is no official confirmation yet, geo-located videos show that the S-300 missile launchers were hit some 60 km behind the frontline.   Russia’s air force continues its equivalent of carpet bombing against towns closer to the frontline by launching glide bombs from fighter-bombers operating in Russian air space. Finally all current providers of air defence systems to Ukraine have officially clarified that these systems can also be used to eliminate attacking aircraft in Russia’s air space. Most likely this option will be used by Ukraine’s air defence troops sooner rather than later.   One of the main targets of Russia’s hybrid information war is currently France... Full news summary attached

In my recent interview with Iran International ایران اینترنشنال I discussed the strategic importance of the Shahrood, Ilam, and Parchin bases in the Islamic Republic’s missile and defense programs, along with the recent targeted operations. Shahrood is a critical site for producing long-range, solid-fuel missiles like “Kheibarshekan” and “Fattah 1,” which are key to the Islamic Republic’s offensive capabilities. Following recent attacks, the Islamic Republic’s missile program may experience delays, impacting its ability to supply missiles to Russia. Satellite images indicate that targeted strikes on solid-fuel facilities at 4:16 a.m. aimed to weaken the Islamic Republic’s production and storage of strategic missiles. Ilam base, a major air defense and radar site, enables the Islamic Republic to monitor western borders and potential threats from Israel. The recent operation against Ilam used electronic warfare and stealth drones to disable its radar systems, showcasing Israel’s capability for precise strikes on critical defensive infrastructure. Parchin, one of the Islamic Republic’s most sensitive military research facilities, plays a crucial role in missile fuel development. The recent strike at Parchin led to the destruction of multiple key buildings, likely through high-precision missiles and drones, delivering a blow to the Islamic Republic’s missile production infrastructure. These attacks are expected to slow down the Islamic Republic’s missile development and potentially disrupt its ability to procure missiles for Russia.

Of course many are relieved that most of Iran’s drones and missiles were shot down. I found the nature of the attack somewhat curious even if Iran only intended to send a message (which it did—that it could attack from within its boundaries). The Allied defense was impressive, but to this non-military observer, I believe that this was a military exercise intended to see how Israel’s defenses would work. The underreported detail is that Iran coordinated launchings from Yemen, Syria and Iraq as well. In other words, it was testing out in real time its ability not only to make the attack but to coordinate an attack from its forward located proxy sources. I expect that the IDF is pondering the importance of what it just saw.

It has always been Iran. For 40 years, the Iranian regime has openly threatened Israel. However, this is the first time an attack officially took place beyond its territory, targeting Israel directly instead of using its proxies (such as Hezbollah, Hamas, or the Houthis from Yemen). 185 drones, 36 cruise missiles, and 110 ballistic missiles were launched from #Iran with precise timing to arrive together and challenge Israel's advanced defense systems. Despite Biden’s “Don’t” and Israel's threats, Iran allowed itself to attack in a manner equivalent to declaring war on #Israel and the #West. Therefore, yesterday's events were extremely dramatic and unprecedented. Israel has long been preparing for such a confrontation, resulting in the development of highly advanced air defense capabilities. All the drones and cruise missiles were intercepted outside the country's borders with the gracious assistance of the United States, Britain, France, and even Jordan. The accurate ballistic missiles were intercepted by advanced systems such as Arrow 2, Arrow 3, David's Sling, and even Iron Dome. In essence, the air defense system almost systematically neutralized the Iranian attack, with sirens heard only in specific areas across the country. What now? Businesses are (almost) back to usual. We are awaiting the response from Israel (and the U.S.) and further instructions. While threats have been heard for a week, there hasn't been an Israeli attack on Iranian soil in retaliation at the moment. Since I've received countless messages from clients and friends worldwide, I want to take this opportunity to reassure everyone - everything is fine! 🙂 I promise to continue updating when possible. Have a peaceful Sunday everyone! 🙏 *In the video, you can see interceptions above the skies of Jerusalem and the Temple Mount*

Maritime Security Bulletin and Advisory Re: Ukraine Attacks Russian Warship Near Kaliningrad Killing (2) Sailors and Injuring(3),(Warship: Serpukhov Heavily Damaged) Issued by: Sanborn Analytics Email: [email protected] Phone: (+1)(617)539-6114 Date: April 8, 2024 Incident Report: Russian Missile Ship Attacked Sanborn Analytics issues this maritime security bulletin and advisory to the maritime shipping community and armed naval forces at sea concerning a recent incident involving a Russian Warship in the Kaliningrad region. According to information sourced from the Kyiv Post, on Sunday, April 7th, 2024, a Russian missile ship named the Serpukhov, stationed at the Baltiysk Naval Base in Russia's Kaliningrad, sustained heavy damage due to a special operation by Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR). The operation resulted in the ship being set ablaze and experiencing significant damage. The Serpukhov is identified as a Project 21631 Buyan-M small missile ship. Sanborn Analytics can confirm, through Unmanned Aerial Surveillance and Ground HUMINT collection, that Ukrainian intelligence forces employed an Unmanned Surface Vehicle in the attack on the Russian warship. Key Details of the Incident: Ship Involved: Serpukhov, Project 21631 Buyan-M small missile ship. Location: Baltiysk Naval Base, Kaliningrad, Russia. Date of Incident: Sunday, April 7th, 2024. Nature of Damage: Heavy damage resulted from a fire caused by a special operation conducted by Ukrainian military intelligence. Casualties: Two Russian sailors were killed, and three were injured. Operational Impact: The ship will require extensive repairs, with indications suggesting it may need to be decommissioned and rebuilt entirely. Security Advisory: Maritime operators and naval forces operating in the vicinity of the Kaliningrad region are advised to exercise heightened vigilance and maintain a state of readiness in light of this incident. Increased maritime patrols and surveillance may be warranted to monitor any potential escalation or retaliatory actions in the area. Vessels transiting through or near the Baltic Sea should remain aware of the evolving security situation and adhere to any directives issued by relevant maritime authorities. Sanborn Analytics will continue to monitor the situation closely and provide updates as necessary. Media Credit: Sanborn Analytics acknowledges the Kyiv Post for its reporting on this incident (see link). This bulletin is issued to ensure the safety and security of maritime operations and personnel in the affected region. #maritimesecurity #russia #ukraine #nationalsecurity #Serpukhov #Kaliningrad #nationalsecurity #homelandsecurity #russiaukrainewar https://lnkd.in/et3tHxKq.

https://lnkd.in/eRrU3nm2 They highlighted the grave threat posed by China’s missiles, which can now target all US bases in the region, including those in Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands. They warned that failure to act could severely impair the US military’s operational capabilities in a conflict including in the case of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. This strategic shift aims to distribute US forces in smaller, more mobile units across the region rather than concentrating them at large bases, thereby making them less vulnerable to Chinese missile strikes. Key installations, especially those west of the International Date Line including in Japan, South Korea and Guam, are well within striking range of Chinese missiles. They also call for fielding Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) equipped with advanced sensors for persistent detection and early warning of missile salvos. US aircraft carriers share the same, if not greater, vulnerabilities as US Indo-Pacific bases. Weichert argues that even non-state actors like the Houthis, backed by Iran, have demonstrated the ability to challenge US naval might with low-grade anti-ship missiles. These missiles, he notes, have the potential to overwhelm carriers’ shipborne defenses, including in strategic regions like the Indo-Pacific and Red Sea.

**Maritime Security Alert: Houthis Launch New Wave of Attacks** The maritime security landscape has been rocked by recent developments as Yemen’s Houthi militia has escalated its aggression. The US military reports that the Houthis fired drones and missiles into international shipping lanes off Yemen, targeting both commercial and military vessels. This includes two missiles aimed at the US destroyer USS Gravely in the Red Sea. Over the weekend, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) intercepted three drones and two ballistic missiles, preventing them from hitting their intended targets. Despite these defenses, the Houthis claimed to have struck six ships, including the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower. However, these claims remain unverified. The Houthis have intensified their maritime operations since November, sinking one commercial ship and capturing another, while launching hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones at over 100 vessels across the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and beyond. Their stated aim is to pressure Israel amid the Gaza conflict, though critics argue they are exploiting regional tensions for broader strategic gains. Analysts, such as Elisabeth Kendall of the University of Cambridge, suggest that despite US-UK airstrikes, the Houthi attacks persist, demonstrating their resilience and ability to garner international attention. The asymmetric nature of the Red Sea conflict continues to play to the Houthis' advantage. Stay informed on these critical developments in maritime security. [Read more](https://arab.news/muykx) #MaritimeSecurity #RedSea #HouthiAttacks #USMilitary #InternationalShipping #YemenConflict #NavalDefense