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https://lnkd.in/dCPDhP3C China is trying to fix its economy. Trump could derail those plans João da Silva 08 November 2024 China is expected to unveil new measures to boost its flagging economy, as it braces for a second Donald Trump presidency. Trump won the election on a platform that promised steep import taxes, including tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese-made goods. His victory is now likely to hinder Xi Jinping’s plans to transform the country into a technology powerhouse – and further strain relations between the world’s two biggest economies. A property slump, rising government debt and unemployment, and low consumption have slowed down Chinese growth since the pandemic.

China. 🚀 up 40% since September after the recent round of stimulus. Is there still any upside? We think there is … but more leverage is still needed, further structural reforms, and support for the property market. And then there’s the US elections – an external risk – where China seems to be readying itself for more tariffs (just in case!) 😉 Read on for a fuller analysis by Chris Mey, CFA and Paulo Salazar, our emerging markets experts. https://lnkd.in/dwKB-mt8

Chinese government advisers are recommending that Beijing maintain an economic growth target of around 5% for 2025. They are also pushing for stronger fiscal stimulus to counteract the expected impact of U.S. tariff hikes on Chinese exports. This recommendation comes as part of efforts to sustain growth despite global economic challenges. https://lnkd.in/gZkNivnS

Trump's selection of Vance as his running mate will likely increase his appeal (particularly among the disgruntled working class - at least a part of it, as the unlikely appearance of O'Brien at the RNC indicates) along with his prospect of winning the election. This potential victory (which I am NOT looking forward to due to some of its social and political implications both domestically and internationally) would likely deepen the ongoing tectonic shifts in global geopolitics and economy. If the US confronts China head-on through punitive protectionist policies (going beyond the the existing 301 tariffs and extending into a wide range of consumer products), it may create openings in certain sectors, especially labor-intensive ones, for countries in the Global South. I think India, with its increasingly globally integrated economy and low labour costs, stands to be the biggest winner in this process. Turkish firms, too, may benefit from these openings if Erdogan's 'messy' foreign exchange policy changes. #GlobalEconomy #Geopolitics #USChinaRelations #TradePolicy #GlobalSouth #India #Turkey #Protectionism #Elections2024 #InternationalTrade #USElections #Biden #Trump

🇺🇲🇨🇳💼 👉 #China is staring down the barrel of Trump's campaign promises to impose 60% tariffs on #trade. We don't know what the tariffs will look like when the president-elect actually takes office, but Beijing is worried. So worried, in fact, that it just introduced new measures to address massive local government #debt. The government's new plan includes an #investment of 6 trillion yuan (about $840 billion) to support local governments overwhelmed by debt from past infrastructure projects financed by extensive borrowing. But some say it's too little, too late. Trump's recent election victory poses a challenge to #XiJinping's ambitions to establish China as a #technology leader and may worsen relations with the US. A slump in the property market, growing debt, high unemployment, and weak consumer spending since the pandemic have hampered economic growth. According to the BBC, Trump's prior tariffs of up to 25% on Chinese products have already impacted the economy, and experts believe he will follow through on proposed new tariffs. The International Monetary Fund (#IMF) has even lowered its growth forecasts for China to 4. 8% in 2024 and 4. 5% in 2025. Economists told the BBC that merely focusing on exports would not suffice for recovery and that—with Trump potentially reinstating stringent import policies—addressing current economic challenges now is critical. #news #business #foreignpolicy #geopolitics

Rojda Akdag Tough decisions are on the horizon for the EU. I believe the best path forward isn't about choosing between the US and China, but about charting its own course. For Europe to shape its future, bold reforms are necessary to truly revitalize the economy—changes that might require sacrificing some of the comforts enjoyed in both social and business life today. A challenging road, but one with the potential for lasting growth and resilience. #Economy #Leadership #Europe #FutureFocused #BoldDecisions

China’s upcoming fiscal stimulus plan may depend on the U.S. presidential election outcome, analysts say. Beijing is expected to announce details after a meeting by the National People’s Congress ends on Friday. If Trump wins, stimulus could be 10–20% larger than under a Harris win, as heightened trade restrictions may demand more domestic support. Trump has threatened increased tariffs, which could hurt Chinese exports, while Harris is likely to continue Biden’s tech restrictions. Economists argue that China will need to balance internal economic challenges with any external pressure. Increased market volatility could push Beijing to act, though the emphasis remains on technology upgrades over large-scale spending. #ChinaEconomy #USPresidentialElection #FiscalStimulus #TradeRelations #EconomicPolicy #MarketVolatility #USChinaRelations #GlobalEconomy #TechRestrictions #TradeWar #EconomicForecast #ChinaPolicy #Tariffs #TechUpgrades #Geopolitics

#No tax in the USA - Impose High tariff on imports said by Donald Trump during the USA election , which is really harmful for India and other 3rd countries also . 1. Trade surplus disruption 2. Rupee further depreciate 3. GDP growth Harm 4. May be less FDI or FPI ✓ Higher Costs on Exports : Increased tariffs mean Indian exporters will face higher costs to access the U.S. market, reducing competitiveness and potentially lowering export volumes. ✓Supply Chain Disruptions: Many third-world countries play a vital role in the global supply chain. A tariff-driven U.S. economy could disrupt established networks, leading to economic volatility in interconnected markets. ✓Strain on Bilateral Relations: This shift in trade policy might lead to retaliatory tariffs or strained trade relations, affecting diplomatic and economic ties. ✓Impact on Emerging Markets: Developing economies depend heavily on trade with the U.S. Sudden tariff hikes can destabilize these markets, impacting growth and development

Ahead of the Union Budget presentation, the Economic Survey 2023-2024 was presented before the Parliament today. Interestingly, the survey report has dedicated a section recommending increasing FDI inflow from China to aid India in global supply chain participation. The survey gives a gist about the ‘China plus one’ strategy adopted by global companies to de-risk themselves of excessive dependence on China by engaging with other economies in addition to China. While India has witnessed significant rise in exports in the electronics sector, it is yet to crack the code for large scale manufacturing and export in some sectors. As per the survey report, India can benefit from and be a part of the ‘China plus one’ strategy and has two modes to facilitate this – integrate into China's supply chain or promote FDI from China. The survey report recommends boosting FDI as more advantageous than relying on trade. This statement has certainly caught attention, especially in light of the contentious Press Note 3 of 2020 which amended the Indian foreign exchange regulations and imposed government approval requirement for all FDI proposals from countries sharing land border with India (which of course, includes China). The survey report’s emphasis on boosting FDI from Chinese entities appears to be a prologue into proposed amendments in the FDI policy, or proposed concessions on the embargoes currently in place for Chinese FDI. News reports from the past week also indicates the proposed set up of an inter-ministerial panel to expedite Chinese FDI proposals in the electronics and automobile sectors. One can certainly expect movement in this space in the coming days. #FDI #UnionBudget #FinMin #DPIIT #PN3 Pioneer Legal

What does a Trump win mean for Australian expats..? 👉🏻 China tariffs may reduce China's economic growth, keeping a lid on the Australian dollar moving forward. 👉🏻 Trump's printing press firing up will undoubtedly be inflationary, which may slow down the pace at which the Federal Reserve cuts rates, also keep a lid on the strength of the Australian dollar. 👉🏻 Tax friendly policies for US corporates, and international corporates with US exposure. #USElection #Trump #TrumpWin #AustralianExpats