Yaroslav Azhnyuk’s Post

Ukraine’s bold offensive into Kursk Oblast is changing the dynamics of the war, catching Russia - and the world - off guard. With high risks come high rewards, but Ukraine’s strategic gamble could reshape the battlefield and alter global perceptions. Will this move force a shift in Russian priorities and Western support? Read more on the implications of this daring manoeuvre and what it means for the future of the conflict, with insights from General Sir Richard Shirreff, Strategic Advisor - Security: https://hubs.ly/Q02Q7mM00 #Ukraine #Geopolitics #MilitaryStrategy

On the 2nd anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, let's take a moment to reflect on what the conflict has revealed about the nature of modern warfare. Check out this insightful summary that highlights the key lessons learned and what comes next. It's fascinating to see how #technology has leveled the playing field and changed the dynamics of conflict. Take a look and share your thoughts. #defensetech https://lnkd.in/gbCTKqZC

One of the central lessons of the Russo-Ukrainian War could be that the prevailing view that future wars will be short and decisive needs rethinking. If this conflict is any harbinger, the United States and its allies and partners may need to be prepared for protracted wars that have insatiable appetites for materiel, munitions, and, tragically, people. If that is true, then the American arsenal of democracy, as well as those of its allies and partners, may have to be rejuvenated. Furthermore, the challenge may not be only the demand shown by confronting Russian aggression. The National Security Strategy identifies China as the principal long-term U.S. challenge. If the United States is indeed serious about preparing for competition and potential conflict with China as well as Russia in the future, the demands could be significant given China's enormous capabilities. Consequently, the ongoing war in Ukraine could lead to a rethinking of what a 21st century American arsenal of democracy will have to be to meet the challenges of the future. Calls to limit Western largesse are being voiced, because, as Hal Brands writes in The Washington Post, “This is presenting Western countries with a stark choice between pouring more supplies into Ukraine or husbanding finite capabilities they may need for their own defense.” This is not unlike the pushback to President Franklin Roosevelt's March 1941 Lend Lease policy that rushed U.S. materiel support to Great Britain and the Soviet Union, including aircraft and warships. Arguably, this assistance kept the besieged British in the war.

PLEASE SHARE: NORDSTREAM EXPLOSIONS - 3 russian ships designed for underwater operations, including a mini submarine, above the Nordstream 1 and Nordstream 2, several times before explosions with transponders turned off. There has been a lot of russian misinformation on the Nordstream bombings lately, to take attention away from the successful Ukrainian Kursk attack. Some claim the Ukrainians did it with one diver from a 15m long sailboat. Here is attached a translated version from DR.DK, fully documented using several systems to cast some light on russian navy operations above the Nordstream pipelines from June to September 2022. The article by DR.DK was posted May 3rd 2023. PLEASE read and share... and try to reflect on who did it, a russian fleet of ships designed to conduct underwater operations, operating in the exact location from June to September 2022... or a claimed 5 person crew on a 15m long sail boat spotted at the Danish island of Bornholm, in what Germany at the time called "A possible russian false-flag operation". And please share with the Germans, with NYT and with Seymour Hersh.... PS It is a rather detailed documentation, but definitely worth the read! And the next time someone brings forth the idea that russia did nothing, just print and share.... Link to full article (in Danish), I have attached an auto-translated sample in english: https://lnkd.in/dQE8dsKB. #Nordstream #DR #democracy #terrorism #USSenate #USCongress #journalism #NRK #EU #NATO #slavaukraini #Ukraine #ArmUkraineNow #explosions #JacobKaarsbo #POTUS #Petraeus #Denmark #Gazprom #NYT #WashingtonPost #stoprussia #Underwater #submarine #navy #politics General David H. Petraeus, US Army (Ret.)

“Much has been made of Ukraine’s disappointing 2023 counteroffensive. But given the strength of defenses on both sides, its failure was no huge surprise. Defense is simply stronger than offense at this stage of the war and, because of this, Ukraine might be able to hang on to most or all of the 82 percent of the pre-2014 territory it now holds, even with constrained military supplies. Yet, as the recent loss of Avdiivka demonstrates, Ukraine might struggle in the event of a complete cutoff of U.S. assistance. The pace of setbacks could accelerate with little warning; like Ernest Hemingway’s quip about bankruptcy, defeat could occur gradually, then suddenly.” “Ukraine needs more artillery and other key weaponry. According to the Royal United Services Institute in London, it can now fire only about 2,000 artillery rounds each day — compared with 3,000 or more in much of 2022 and as many as 7,000 during last summer’s counteroffensive. Russia is currently firing up to 10,000 rounds a day. But, like Russia, Ukraine was probably wasting much of its firepower on barrage attacks, so scaling back does not necessarily lead to big losses. It does, however, lower the odds of success in a future counteroffensive. And if the shortages worsen, all bets are off.”

In my debut for Center for European Policy Analysis I explore the role of the #WesternBalkans in supplying weapons to #Ukraine amid Russia's invasion, highlighting the region's capacity to produce both NATO and Soviet-standard munitions. Key takeaways from the text are: - 🇧🇦 & 🇷🇸 are regional leaders in armament production and can aid 🇺🇦 in its defense, but have internal challenges over a complex political climate and legal frameworks. Despite this, regional weapons are in 🇺🇦 with 🇷🇸 alone selling some $800m since 2022. - The potential for 🇷🇺 influence in the military-industrial complex of the region is increased by the #RepublikaSrpska government decision to transfer ownership of its companies to 🇷🇸. More on this. ⬇️ https://lnkd.in/ezvwcCSC

Interesting read about ruzzian vessels active in the waters above Nord Stream I and Nord Stream II in September of 2022.

Interesting read. Author takes lessons from recent conficts in Afghanistan, Armenia-Azerbaijan and Ukraine and outlines a general theory on how to fight a PLA “triphibious” invasion of Taiwan. His overall asymetric resistance defense concept idea is not without gaps. Many exposed in this read. Still, he quotes Muhammed Ali to sum up his theory of mobility and survivability: “Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee. The hands can’t hit what the eyes can’t see.” Good luck with that. His conept is probably best suited for island nations in the western Pacific, but other militaries facing manacing and more powerful enemies at their doorstep could borrow some of the ideas shared in this article. #ropeadope

The news regarding Ukrainian individuals linked to President Zelensky emerges shortly after Ukrainian forces makes an incursion into the Russian Donbass. While the USA denies any involvement in the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage, Ukraine finds it challenging to present a consistent stance: "One of the most audacious acts of sabotage in modern history, the operation worsened an energy crisis in Europe—an assault on critical infrastructure that could be considered an act of war under international law. Theories swirled about who was responsible. Was it the CIA? Could Putin himself have set the plan in motion? Now, for the first time, the outlines of the real story can be told. The Ukrainian operation cost around $300,000, according to people who participated in it. It involved a small rented yacht with a six-member crew, including trained civilian divers. One was a woman, whose presence helped create the illusion they were a group of friends on a pleasure cruise.   [...] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky initially approved the plan, according to one officer who participated and three people familiar with it. But later, when the CIA learned of it and asked the Ukrainian president to pull the plug, he ordered a halt, those people said. Zelensky’s commander in chief, Valeriy Zaluzhniy, who was leading the effort, nonetheless forged ahead.  [...] Chervinsky and the sabotage team initially studied an older, elaborate plan to blow up the pipeline drafted by Ukrainian intelligence and Western experts after Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014, according to people familiar with the plot. After dismissing that idea due to its cost and complexity, the planners settled on using a small sailing boat and a team of six—a mix of seasoned active duty soldiers and civilians with maritime expertise—to blow up the 700-mile-long pipelines that sat more than 260 feet below the sea’s surface." #AtTheSameTime #Allies #Challengers #Terrorism #MilitaryOperation #Sabotage #twinnaturalgaspipelines #legitimatetarget #energypricessurge #Ukraine #SBU #yacht #Andromeda #Rostock #USA #CIA #Kyiv #VolodymyrZelensky #ValeriyZaluzhniy #RomanChervinsky #Russia #DNAsamples

22 Aug 10:10: ‘PLEASE SHARE: NORDSTREAM EXPLOSIONS - 3 russian ships designed for underwater operations, including a mini submarine, above the Nordstream 1 and Nordstream 2, several times before explosions with transponders turned off. There has been a lot of russian misinformation on the Nordstream bombings lately, to take attention away from the successful Ukrainian Kursk attack. Some claim the Ukrainians did it with one diver from a 15m long sailboat. Here is attached a translated version from DR.DK, fully documented using several systems to cast some light on russian navy operations above the Nordstream pipelines from June to September 2022. The article by DR.DK was posted May 3rd 2023. PLEASE read and share... and try to reflect on who did it, a russian fleet of ships designed to conduct underwater operations, operating in the exact location from June to September 2022... or a claimed 5 person crew on a 15m long sail boat spotted at the Danish island of Bornholm, in what Germany at the time called "A possible russian false-flag operation". And please share with the Germans, with NYT and with Seymour Hersh.... PS It is a rather detailed documentation, but definitely worth the read! And the next time someone brings forth the idea that russia did nothing, just print and share.... Link to full article (in Danish), I have attached an auto-translated sample in english: https://lnkd.in/dQE8dsKB. #Nordstream #DR #democracy #terrorism #USSenate #USCongress #journalism #NRK #EU #NATO #slavaukraini #Ukraine #ArmUkraineNow #explosions #JacobKaarsbo #POTUS #Petraeus #Denmark #Gazprom #NYT #WashingtonPost #stoprussia #Underwater #submarine #navy #politics General David H. Petraeus, US Army (Ret.)’: Thank you, Jens 🇩🇰🇺🇦 … and Nikki 🇳🇿🇺🇦: