ws zhu’s Post

It was a productive experience to be a part of Bitcoin 2024. I wanted to share two observations. First, there are two distinct worlds of Bitcoiners. One world (World 1) is comprised of entrepreneurs and developers tirelessly working to make Bitcoin more usable, scalable and portable across different chains - to truly make Bitcoin a medium of exchange and a store of value. Think about Lightening Network, trustless L2s and superchains, smart contract capability and deployment of new assets on BTC chain, first verified ZK proof by BitcoinOS enabling future operating system capabilities on BTC chain, and efforts to enable BTC holders to earn mining rewards via "liquid staking" Bitcoin. There is also another world (World 2) which believes that BTC will propel itself to stratospheric heights and universal adoption solely because it is algorithmically deflationary (more scarce and thus better than gold), because there is an insatiable penchant for non-government-controlled money, and because traditional FIs will eventually be forced to allocate up to 8% to BTC because of the rising customer demand and FOMO on the part of these institutions themselves. Moreover, I have heard more than once during the conference that this other world of Bitcoiners does not really need the efforts of the first world because the above three reasons are sufficient to make BTC far better than any other asset. Whether the opinions/projections of someone from World 2 reflect true convictions or represents "talking someone's book" likely depends on how seasoned that someone's BTC HODLing position is. My second observation is as follows: what BTC does not need for sure to be a long-term success would be “advice” heard from the conference stage for governments to print fiat money to buy Bitcoin to pull themselves out of dire fiscal hole based on some dubious long-term calculations about the resulting massive appreciation of BTC. One does not have to hold a degree in Economics to realize that such "creative" ideas will lead to inflation and higher nominal interest rates - likely making fiscal situation worse, not better, slowing economic growth and elevating economic and investment risks. It is plain wrong to use BTC as a weapon against traditional financial assets and to inflict damage to the traditional financial system. It is wrong to use BTC to produce inflation to prove that BTC is a perfect hedge against it. Ultimately such ideas will perpetuate BTC as a highly speculative risk-on asset instead of being, as originally envisioned, permissionless and trustless P2P alternative to government-controlled money. Bitcoin does not need to cause damage to  the traditional financial system to be a success. It can, and will, stand on its own and flourish - thanks to the huge capabilities of DLT, the persistent efforts of entrepreneurs, VCs and developers to make it more scalable and usable, combined with prudent investment decisions by private individuals and financial institutions.

Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Theory - Is it still relevant today or has the trend broken with the introduction of the Bitcoin ETFs? The Bitcoin Four Year Cycle Theory is a popular thesis within the cryptocurrency community that suggests Bitcoin's price undergoes a major cycle approximately every four years. This theory is closely tied to Bitcoin's halving events, which the creator of BTC, Satoshi Nakamoto, programmed to occur roughly every four years. During these halving events, the reward for mining new blocks is cut in half, effectively reducing the rate at which new bitcoins are created and thus the supply of new bitcoins entering the market. The theory posits that halving events lead to a cycle of phases in the Bitcoin market, involving accumulation, expansion, peak, and correction phases. Here's a breakdown of the theory with @CryptoCon chart. The Four Year Cycle Theory is supported by historical patterns observed in BTC's price since its inception. Halving events in 2012, 2016, and 2020 have been followed by significant bull runs. However, it's important to note that while this theory has held in the past, it's not a guaranteed predictor of future Bitcoin price movements. With an influence by a wide range of factors, including regulatory changes, technological advancements, and shifts in investor sentiment, which can all impact the cycle's phases and their duration. Drawing Parallels: Bitcoin and the DOTCOM Boom The resemblance between BTC's market structure and the S&P500 during the DOTCOM era is striking. Both periods exhibit clear four-year cycles, characterized by growth, with brief bear markets. DOTCOM's similar cycle that underscored the adoption of transformative technology—the internet and personal computers—which revolutionized society's interaction with information. A Larger Cycle at Play? This comparison raises a fascinating question: Could Bitcoin be following a similar, extended cycle that reflects a deeper shift in its adoption? The DOTCOM cycle's structure, with its initial bull markets followed by a significant market correction, offers a potential roadmap for Bitcoin's future. This perspective suggests that Bitcoin's journey may not adhere strictly to its past four-year cycles. Instead, we might witness a departure from expectations, possibly culminating in a prolonged bear market that defies conventional predictions. Bitcoin's journey is a fascinating reflection of broader technological and economic trends. As we explore the concept, we gain valuable insights into how groundbreaking technologies are adopted and how they reshape our financial and societal landscapes. In the ever-changing world of cryptocurrency, keeping an eye on both historical patterns and current events will be key to navigating the future. Original Article: The Bitcoin 16 Year Cycle, And Its Correlation To The Internet Bubble by Written by Jeroen van Lange for Bitcoin Magazine October 23rd, 2023. CryptoCon Website: https://lnkd.in/e7f88U8z

🔴 Every era has a defining question, so what is ours? Would you reject Bitcoin or embrace it?   This is, undoubtedly the defining questions of our time.   So, what does it take to deny Bitcoin? How can a person understand monetary history and deny Bitcoin?   How can a person grasp political history and deny Bitcoin?   How can a person study economic history and deny Bitcoin?   How can a person comprehend the banking system and deny Bitcoin?  How can a person analyze geopolitics and deny Bitcoin?   How can a person appreciate energy and power dynamics and deny Bitcoin?  How can a person embrace technological advancements and deny Bitcoin?  How can a person evaluate fiscal policy and deny Bitcoin?    How can a person value freedom and democracy and deny Bitcoin?   How can a person understand central banking and deny Bitcoin?   How can a person advocate for peace and deny Bitcoin? EVERYONE WILL GET BITCOIN AT A PRICE WHICH THEY DESERVE, that's it.  The incentive of the Bitcoin standard is so strong that it makes it almost impossible to go broke. Bitcoin is not money; Bitcoin is a market that will decentralize everything, from money to energy markets, internet, and social media. Bitcoin is computation; you get money (Bitcoin) by performing computation. Computation is the future of everything. Bitcoin is the most underpriced/mispriced asset right now on Earth. Bitcoin will shape the 21st century. Bitcoin is a combination of physics (thermodynamics) and math. Bitcoin is time; it's a time chain. Bitcoin, AI, and the internet are the three sides of the same triangle. They are not separate things. Bitcoin doesn't have feelings, emotion, or nepotism.  Bitcoin can't be betrayed; it's fair to everyone.  Bitcoin follows math, physics, energy, and time. Bitcoin is a one-way gift from Satoshi to humankind. Billions will use Bitcoin.  Bitcoin is more valuable and solves more extreme problems than all big tech combined. Bitcoin reached $1 trillion USD in market cap; the same way it will reach $100 trillion. The world's assets are currently worth north of $500 trillion; Bitcoin will easily grab 20% of it within the next 15/20 years. You don't need to accept Bitcoin; wait until then. Balaji isn't stupid. Sam Altman isn't stupid. Elon Musk isn't stupid. Tim Cook isn't stupid. Brian Armstrong isn't stupid. Saylor isn't stupid. Bill Miller isn't stupid. Bezos isn't stupid. The choice is yours. I just invite you to think.

“Bitcoin’s utility is as money. It has a market because it solves a problem inherent in modern money. Not only is bitcoin not a pyramid scheme; it is fundamentally distinct from the class of innovation that could be offered by any individual company. Bitcoin is not Dell and it is not Apple. It is not a tech stock. There is no company that exists behind bitcoin. Bitcoin is not a company selling a product and there is no income stream to pay future dividends. Bitcoin is not about making money; instead, bitcoin is money, or at least it has become money to those choosing to store a portion of their wealth in it. And it’s not a get-rich-quick scheme; it is fundamentally about storing the value you have already created. Bitcoin is a bearer asset; however, unlike a bearer bond, there is no income stream. Bitcoin’s innovation is that it represents a superior form of money, but there are no future promises beyond being in possession of a digital bearer instrument. The only utility of bitcoin is in holding it as a currency and transacting with it in the future, whether that be in exchange for legacy currencies or other goods and services. Bitcoin is only useful as a form of money, and it will only maintain value if others demand it in the future. But this is true of any form of money (not just bitcoin). Money is not a collective hallucination or merely a belief system; monetary goods have distinct properties which make them more or less effective in facilitating exchange. However, monetary properties are not absolute; the relative strength of monetary properties is the fundamental basis of demand. When the market evaluates bitcoin, it does so relative to other monetary mediums (the dollar, euro, yen, gold, etc.). The supply of bitcoin, and its rigid supply constraint, is the foundation of bitcoin’s utility and fundamental demand; it is also why bitcoin is not a pyramid scheme. There will only ever be 21 million bitcoin. That is bitcoin’s schelling point. Everyone knows it; everyone remembers it. Everyone can also verify it at any point in time. For discussion of how and why bitcoin has a credibly fixed supply, see Bitcoin, Not Blockchain and Bitcoin is Not Backed by Nothing. But for now, just work on the assumption that the supply of bitcoin is capped at 21 million. In contrast, no one knows the supply of dollars. The Fed estimates the current supply of dollars, but no one knows how many dollars will exist in the future. There is no constraint on the supply of the dollar, other than the Federal Reserve, and all we know for sure is that many more dollars will exist in the future; it is a limitless function. In the end, there is fundamental demand for bitcoin because its monetary policy is i) optimally engineered and ii) credibly enforced. Relative to its competition, bitcoin is a vastly superior monetary medium.”