Warren Fernandez’s Post

Exploring Chinese elections, this article examines the role of Data Science in enhancing transparency and voter engagement while navigating challenges in a controlled political environment.

#USElections2024: Arab American voter needs could tip the scales in this years elections, according to a new Arab News/YouGov poll. Join Middle East Institute on Oct 28 and register, to explore the community’s voter attitudes & their impact on US-Mideast policy https://lnkd.in/daWzFWXD

#USElections2024: Arab American voter needs could tip the scales in this years elections, according to a new Arab News/YouGov poll. Join Middle East Institute on Oct 28 and register, to explore the community’s voter attitudes & their impact on US-Mideast policy https://lnkd.in/daWzFWXD

In a little over four months, on November 5, 2024, Americans will #vote, deciding the 47th US President. So it seems timely to consider the relationship between #statistics and #elections, the subject of the most recent Global Campus blog. #election #Election2024 #statisticaldataanalysis #statistics #appliedstatistics #appliedstats #michigantech #GlobalCampus https://lnkd.in/g2TgSZHk

As we head into the final straight of the US Presidential election, the polls will be under greater scrutiny than ever. One area coming under close examination is online versus offline polls. Not all polls are created equally and in a race as close as the current one for the White House, knowing which pollster you can trust is crucial.      YouGov puts an enormous amount of effort and expertise into delivering accuracy. Our panel team makes sure that we have both the right mix of respondents but also that the people on our panel have the best experience meaning they share the best data. Our political teams work tirelessly in the most public of all research arenas to accurately reflect the shifting make-up of the electorate. The results of this hard work and focus are shown by the results – with YouGov’s MRPs being the most accurate in the most recent UK and Spanish general elections.    I am proud that this dedication to data quality is recognised in today’s New York Times which says of YouGov:    “Across all plausible criteria for evaluation, it stands apart. Over the years, it has released a collection of detailed methodology statements revealing a sophisticated sample selection process and the use of its own proprietary panel. Its data has been analyzed by third parties, used by academics, and found to outperform other nonprobability data. It has also amassed a decade-long record of solid results in election polling.”   Our approach is the same in political polling as it is in the rest of our work which is why when people work with YouGov they know they are getting the best quality data that delivers accuracy.

It goes without saying: Data quality is the foundation to actionably business insights, but the industry is facing more challenges than ever. The New York Times recently wrote about these challenges but repeatedly called out YouGov as an exception to the rule. "Only YouGov, long at the cutting edge of this kind of polling, is still producing reasonably accurate results with these panels." 🎵 This is music to my ears 🎵 I sell insights. I'm grateful to work for a research firm where I'm confident in those insights above all else. If your company runs market research or buys data to drive the business forward, we would love to meet with you. Reach out anytime 🙌 #marketresearch #insightsanddata

There has been a lot of punditry about the US elections. I am not a political expert so I am not getting into that. What was interesting to me was this article in the NY Times that talks about the Dems' reliance on analytics vs actual voter conversations. Link to the full article in the comments but here are some quotes - "Democratic Party has increasingly replaced the art of listening to and polling voters with an almost religious devotion to data analytics. This approach combines voter file data, consumer databases, short surveys, social media insights and information from canvassing and events to create detailed profiles and models of potential voters." "While data analytics have their place, this near-blind faith in random control trials and modeling has created more than just an illusion of scientific precision — it has built an algorithmic fortress that isolates Democrats from the very voters they seek to represent. The irony is stark: a party full of voter data yet starved for true voter understanding and connection." This was fascinating to read because this is EXACTLY the challenge that large orgs face when building technology and products for large pools of customers. The battle between data vs real conversations exists very broadly in our world. When algorithms replace conversations, we don't just lose data - we lose truth.

#FromtheReview: With debates focusing on a predicted era of coalition governments ahead of the national and provincial elections on 29 May, this article looks at understanding public perceptions of coalition governments. Read more: https://loom.ly/QHknxF0 #SAelections24

New Post: Disinformation in the Super Election Year — Global Issues - https://lnkd.in/gADQU6Yu A voter's finger is dyed with ink after casting a vote in elections. In this super election year, truths become a rare commodity, and the struggle for the sovereignty of interpretation of reality takes centre stage. Credit: UN Photo/Marco DorminoOpinion by Jurgen Neyer (berlin, germany)Friday, May 03, 2024Inter Press ServiceBERLIN, Germany, May 03 (IPS) - The year 2024 seems to be a year of big decisions. The European Parliament elections in June and the US presidential election in November… politics and the media are talking of a showdown between democracy and disinformation. Add the elections in Russia and India to that and almost half of the world’s population will be casting their vote this year.According to EU High Representative Josep Borrell, ‘malicious foreign actors’ are trying to win the ‘battle of narrative’. Disinformation is being pumped out, aimed at dividing society and undermining trust in state institutions, as stated by the German Federal Government. Social media is purportedly being used to spread lies, disinformation and deep fakes, which is rapidly generating false information and creating filter bubbles and echo chambers. It is also being claimed that artificial intelligence, deep fakes and personalised algorithms are building on the already existing uncertainty, reducing confidence in democratic institutions.Does this threaten the very core of democracy?There are a number of major counterpoints to the theory that a social media-driven flood of disinformation is posing a threat to democracy. Firstly, there is the term itself. We can distinguish ‘disinformation’ from simply ‘false information’ on the basis of whether there was any malicious intent. False information is a mistake; disinformation is an outright lie. However, the line between the two is often difficult to draw. How do we know whether someone is acting maliciously unless we are mind readers?The term ‘disinformation’ is often a misnomer, all too often applied in political spheres to anyone who simply takes a different view. This has been (and still can be) frequently observed on both sides of the debate surrounding the dangers of the coronavirus in recent years. There are still no empirically meaningful studies that demonstrate that disinformation, filter bubbles and echo chambers have had any clear impact. Far from it, most studies show a low prevalence of disinformation, with little to no demonstrable effects. There even seems to be a link between intensive media use and a differentiated opinion.There has never been a greater amount of high-quality knowledge available at such a low cost than we have today.It is also unclear whether disinformation campaigns are capable of having a lasting effect at all. Even Lutz Güllner, the head of strategic communicatio