Center for an Informed Public’s Post

NBC News notes on this Election Day that at the University of Washington in Seattle, "25 researchers at the Center for an Informed Public will work in shifts to document rumors as they arise on Election Day and beyond. It is one of a few large-scale academic projects still studying election disinformation ..." CIP research manager Danielle Lee Tomson Ph.D. told NBC News that “as more people go to the polls and encounter both real and perceived problems with voting. ... The problem is when political actors or influencers take one real problem,” Tomson said, “and misleadingly exaggerate its impact or scope to indicate some larger coordinate fraud or mass conspiracy.” Read more from NBC News: https://lnkd.in/g5vCpXPK Our team recently published an analysis of the types of rumors we anticipate to see emerge on and after Election Day: https://lnkd.in/gFFzYawv We also have a new primer outlining various rumors about voting machines: https://lnkd.in/gFFzYawv To follow our election rumor research, sign up for updates via our Substack newsletter: https://lnkd.in/gMtB3T_8

Excerpt: For more than 100 years, media of many kinds tried to be the first to report presidential election results. Although that urge still exists, pundits and analysts are now more concerned with accuracy than speed. That’s because of the 2020 election. A raging pandemic, a divided country, a close race, polling failures, false presidential claims of voter fraud and uncertainty made everyone anxious. Then came the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, which meant the election was about more than the presidency – it was about democracy itself. What’s most important now is not being first but rather being right. In recent decades, Americans have gotten used to media organizations declaring the winners of races in the hours or days after the polls close, but those are not official results. They are projections based on the available unofficial information. The formal results of the election are checked and certified through a process that takes weeks to months – and potentially longer, if lawsuits are filed. A wrong call could spark violence, particularly because Donald Trump has yet to say that he will accept the results of the 2024 election if he loses. Media figures and election officials are preparing Americans for the fact that we might have to wait some time to get an accurate call. As in 2020, they’re using metaphor to shape public expectations. But this year, they’re also explicitly trying to define the nation’s perceptions of time, in terms of which results count as on time or as delayed.

Judge Blocks Georgia Hand Count Rule for November Election Amid Concerns of Chaos A Georgia judge has blocked a last-minute rule that would have required hand-counting of ballots in the upcoming November presidential election. Judge Robert McBurney cited the potential for "administrative chaos" and undermining public trust as reasons for his decision. The hand-count regulation, introduced by the pro-Trump election board, faced criticism for risking delays and uncertainty in Georgia, a crucial swing state. Early voting began with record numbers, and both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have increased their campaign efforts in Georgia ahead of Election Day on November 5. https://lnkd.in/ezn8q3nC » Subscribe to Creative Media News: * / https://lnkd.in/eCZ8qxnX   Follow Creative Media News Blogs  https://creativemedia.news Welcome to Creative Media News – your go-to source for the latest updates in finance, technology, global events, and more. At Creative Media News, we are dedicated to delivering accurate, timely, and engaging news content that keeps you informed and ahead of the curve. Our channel offers a diverse range of videos, including in-depth analyses, breaking news updates, expert interviews, and insightful commentary on the issues that matter most to you. Whether you're interested in stock market trends, technological innovations, or international affairs, we provide comprehensive coverage and expert perspectives to help you stay informed. Subscribe to Creative Media News for daily video updates and exclusive content designed to enrich your understanding of the world. Join our growing community of viewers who rely on us for trusted news and insights. Don’t forget to hit the notification bell so you never miss an update, and engage with us by liking, commenting, and sharing our videos. Stay informed, stay connected, and stay ahead with Creative Media News – your trusted partner in navigating the complex world of news and information. #CreativeMediaNews #BreakingNews #FinanceNews #TechUpdates #GlobalEvents #StockMarket #ExpertAnalysis #InternationalNews Find Creative Media News on Facebook: * / https://lnkd.in/eewRUPM7 Follow Creative Media News on Twitter: * / https://lnkd.in/epCZ4qrq Follow Creative Media News on Instagram: * / https://lnkd.in/eUJprGPW Follow Creative Media News on TikTok: * / https://lnkd.in/e8utRJ8v Follow Creative Media News on LinkedIn: * / https://lnkd.in/evkfnbg8 Georgia hand count rule, Judge McBurney, Georgia election, 2024 presidential election, Trump, Kamala Harris, swing state, early voting #shorts #viral #trending #reels #GeorgiaElection #2024Election #ElectionIntegrity #KamalaHarris #DonaldTrump #SwingState #EarlyVoting #ElectionSecurity

The Polling Paradox: Why 2024's Election Numbers Deserve a Second Look As we approach another pivotal election cycle, I've been reflecting on an interesting paradox in political polling. Despite sophisticated methodologies and years of refinement, our ability to predict election outcomes seems to be getting more challenging, not less. Here's what's particularly fascinating: The 2020 polling error was actually worse than 2016's infamous miss. According to the American Association for Public Opinion Research, polls overstated Biden's advantage by nearly 4 points nationally and 4.3 points at the state level in the final two weeks of the 2020 election. But here's where it gets interesting for data professionals: 🔍 The Challenge: It's not just about methodology anymore. We're facing what pollsters call "anti-establishment response bias" - where people's likelihood to participate in polls correlates with their political preferences. 💡 The Innovation: The industry is adapting by: Including "partial" responses that were previously discarded. Incorporating political variables into sampling methods. Using voter files and "recalled vote" data to balance samples 🤔 The Implications: This evolution in polling methodology raises important questions about how we measure public opinion in an increasingly polarised environment. What does this mean for 2024? While pollsters are cautiously optimistic about their new approaches, the reality is that we won't know their effectiveness until election day. As professionals who rely on data, this serves as a crucial reminder: Sometimes the biggest challenge isn't in the numbers themselves, but in who's willing to share them. What are your thoughts on this evolution in polling methodology? How do you handle selection bias in your own data collection? #DataScience #Polling #Elections2024 #PoliticalAnalysis #Statistics

Fascinating deep dive into polling methodology today. 🤔 What strikes me most is how our traditional data collection methods are being challenged by changing social dynamics. As someone passionate about data analysis, I can't help but wonder: 1) If you work with surveys or data collection, how do you handle non-response bias in your field? 2) Have you noticed similar patterns of "anti-establishment response bias" in your market research? 3) What innovative methods are you using to reach traditionally unresponsive segments? Would love to hear perspectives from both polling experts and professionals dealing with similar challenges in market research, UX research, or customer insights. Tag a colleague who might have interesting insights on this! #DataAnalytics #MarketResearch #Polling #ProfessionalInsights 💡 Pro tip: Comment below if you'd like to discuss specific strategies for improving response rates in your industry. Let's learn from each other!

With the election approaching, there are several key topics and trends that are likely to dominate social media discussions: 1. **Candidate Platforms and Debates**: People will be discussing the policies and platforms of the candidates. This includes analyzing debate performances and fact-checking statements made during these events. 2. **Voter Turnout and Engagement**: Encouraging voter registration and turnout is always a hot topic. Social media campaigns to engage young and first-time voters are likely to be prominent. 3. **Misinformation and Fact-Checking**: With the spread of misinformation online, there will be a focus on fact-checking and providing reliable information. Platforms may implement measures to combat false narratives. 4. **Key Issues**: Topics like the economy, healthcare, climate change, and social justice are likely to be major points of discussion. People will be sharing their opinions and looking for candidate positions on these issues. 5. **Polling and Predictions**: As the election date nears, discussions around polls and predictions about the outcome will intensify. People will analyze trends and speculate on the potential results. 6. **Local Elections and Propositions**: In addition to national races, local elections and ballot propositions will be significant, with discussions tailored to regional concerns and initiatives. 7. **Election Security and Integrity**: Concerns about the security and integrity of the election process may be a topic of interest, especially in light of past controversies. 8. **Post-Election Analysis**: After the election, there will be analysis and discussion on the results, the implications for the future, and the transition process if there is a change in leadership. Engaging with these topics can help foster informed discussions and encourage civic participation.

The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) has issued a new fact sheet and whitepaper, making recommendations for how transparent, publicly available data can help contribute to free and fair elections. These recommendations were created in collaboration with UCS’s Election Science Task Force on which Athena Strategies’ President Kathy Boockvar is pleased to be a member.     The resources linked below review election rules and practices and data transparency in five states—Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The whitepaper and fact sheet review practices such as post-election audits, observation of election processes, and ballot tracking, and also offer recommendations for how all states can improve their methods of handling and sharing election data.    The fact sheet is designed to be an educational resource for community organizations and our partners on the ground while the whitepaper provides an in-depth examination of the science that supports UCS’ recommendations for decisionmakers and election administrators to reference and consider.    Later this summer, UCS will release a fact sheet and accompanying whitepaper on another priority area, equitable ballot design, that will issue a set of recommendations for how more equitable and better designed ballots and education materials can make our democracy freer and fairer.     Just as science depends on a healthy democracy, democracy can benefit from science. Together, UCS’ three main issue areas of election data transparency, equitable ballot design, and fair maps help build a healthier democracy that is accountable to the people it serves, listens to science, and creates fair and just policies. #electionsecurity #transparency https://lnkd.in/eAGj-upU

Data-Driven Democracy? My Journey Through Election Statistics and Gut Feelings or Head vs. Heart 🧠💖 Election day is tomorrow, and I'm stuck. Do I trust the data or my gut feeling? If you've ever felt torn about how to vote, pull up a chair – this one's for you. 🪑🗳️ The Data Dilemma 📊 I've always been a numbers person. Give me a good chart, and I'm happy. 😊 That's why I usually love tactical voting. With the FPP voting system, it often feels like the smart way to make your vote count. But this year? It's complicated. 🤔 The Chart That Made Me Pause ⏸️ A few days ago, I got a letter with a neat little chart (see attached). It showed exactly how I should vote if I wanted to "vote smart." Simple, right? 📈🤓 Not so fast. 🚫⚡ When Something Feels Off 🎭 Here's the thing: that chart? It's based on what a handful of people said they might do. Meanwhile, I've been watching the Lib Dems work hard in our area. They're everywhere – knocking on doors, chatting at local events. 🚪🗣️ And get this – they've got support from a former independent who was super popular last time. 🌟 My brain says, "Follow the chart!" But my gut? It's not so sure. 🧠❓💖 The Big Question ❓ So here I am, caught between cold, hard numbers and what I'm seeing with my own eyes. 👀 And I can't help but wonder: Is data always right, even when it's based on a small group? Or is there a time to trust what we're feeling? Plot Twist 🌪️ Here's what's really getting me: my gut thinks that no matter what I choose, my vote will not change much this time. But it will help paint a clearer picture for the next time. 🖼️ What Do You Think? 🤔 Have you ever felt torn like this when voting? How did you decide? I'd love to hear your stories. 📚 And most critically, what would you suggest I do? Please help! 🗳️🤝 #ElectionDayThoughts 💭 #VotingDilemma 🤷♂️ #ElectionData #DataDrivenDecisions #PoliticalForecasting #DataEthics #ThoughtLeadership #DataAnalytics #TacticalVoting #DataLiteracy #DataInference

My Morning Edition debut! Big thanks to NPR's Audrey Nguyen for talking with me about cutting through the noise and rumors in the coming days. A few practical tips: 1. Patience, patience, patience. We likely won't know the full picture on election night, and some people will undoubtedly try to declare a race over before it actually is. That said, when the outcome of a race is clear, expect quality news organizations to call it. 2. Beware of confirmation bias. We like having our beliefs confirmed and reflected back to us. That makes us vulnerable to being misled -- especially on topics we care strongly about (like an election outcome). 3. Take responsibility for the information you share. Don't add noise, confusion or speculation to the mix. Verify before sharing. You can check out the full story at the link below. ⬇ https://lnkd.in/g-twWMbf

Good stuff from Kate Starbird. I think I'm going to have to read this a few times. 'Our team at the University of Washington has studied online rumors and misinformation for more than a decade. Since 2020, we have focused on rapid analysis of falsehoods about U.S. election administration, from sincere confusion about when and where to vote to intentional efforts to sow distrust in the process. Our motivations are to help quickly identify emerging rumors about election administration and analyze the dynamics of how these rumors take shape and spread online. Through the course of this research we have learned that despite all the discussion about misinformation being a problem of bad facts, most misleading election rumors stem not from false or manipulated evidence but from misinterpretations and mischaracterizations. In other words, the problem is not just about bad facts but also faulty frames, or the mental structures people rely on to interpret those facts.' https://lnkd.in/eXfb6WHy