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Maritime Security Bulletin and Geopolitical Update Re: Russian President Vladamir Putin Has Ordered the Evacuation of Some Russian Troops from Crimea back to Russia (Russian Admirals Signal Crimea May Fall to Ukraine in the Coming Months)(Russia to Make a New Offer of Peace Soon) Issued by: Sanborn Analytics Date: June 10th, 2024 - Email: outreach@sanbornanalytics.us - Phone: (+1)(617)539-6114 --- Security Alert: Evacuation Orders in Crimea Sanborn Analytics has confirmed through multiple sources that the Russian Air Defense Forces have ordered the evacuation of families from the temporarily occupied Crimea to military camps in the Southern Military District of Russia. This directive includes orders for air defense servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces to relocate their families. While these orders have been issued, significant movement has not yet been observed. Force Movements and Defensive Postures: Our Human Intelligence (HUMINT) sources indicate that there are plans to move certain Russian forces from occupied Crimea back to Russia. This redeployment is intended to bolster defenses against increasing Ukrainian drone and missile attacks. Casualties and Combat Effectiveness: Recent confirmed reports state that Russia suffered the loss of approximately 90 soldiers following a missile strike on a military outpost in the Belgorod region on June 10th, 2024. The attack utilized U.S. and British-made missiles deployed by Ukrainian forces. In light of these developments, Sanborn Analytics maintains its assessment that the Russian Navy and Air Force have become significantly degraded and are currently battle-ineffective. This is evidenced by the withdrawal of the Russian Navy to ports within Russia and the refusal of Russian pilots to engage in operations within Ukrainian airspace. Strategic Implications: Sanborn Analytics urges our maritime clients to remain vigilant as these movements may signal a shift in regional security dynamics. It is crucial for naval forces and commercial shipping operations in the Black Sea and surrounding areas to stay informed through our detailed reports and updates. We continue to monitor the situation closely and will provide further updates as more information becomes available. For an in-depth analysis, our clients are encouraged to refer to our previous private clientele reports. --- Stay safe and informed. --- Sanborn Analytics - Your trusted partner in maritime security and geopolitical intelligence #maritimesecurity #ukraine #russia #ukrainerussiawar #belgorod #nationalsecurity #homelandsecurity

Maritime Security Bulletin and Geopolitical Update Re: The Ukrainian Armed Forces Have Killed (27) North Korean Soldiers in the Kursk Region of Russia. (Japan and South Korea Plan Major Arms Shipments to Ukraine)   Issued by Sanborn Analytics   Contact: outreach@sanbornanalytics.us | Phone: +1 (617) 539-6114  Date: November 1st, 2024  Subject: North Korean Military Engagement in Russia and Implications for Maritime Operations Sanborn Analytics issues this maritime security bulletin to advise the maritime shipping community and the armed naval forces at sea regarding recent developments in the ongoing conflict involving Ukraine and Russia. On November 1st, 2024, reports confirmed that Ukrainian forces engaged and killed 27 "elite" North Korean soldiers deployed by the Kremlin in the Kursk region of Russia. This incident marks a significant escalation, as it follows the recent deployment of thousands of North Korean troops into Russian territory aimed at supporting Moscow's military objectives in Ukraine. Intelligence from HUMINT sources within Russian naval forces indicates that this gun battle in Kursk represents the first military engagement involving North Korean troops since their deployment. This escalation raises concerns about the potential for increased hostilities and further military involvement in the region. Additionally, Sanborn Analytics has obtained information regarding preparations by South Korea and Japan to supply substantial arms shipments to Ukraine, with proposals currently under review in both capitals. This development underscores a growing international commitment to support Ukraine against Russian aggression. In light of these events, Sanborn Analytics strongly advises all maritime traffic in the Black Sea to exercise heightened caution while navigating the area. Increased military activity and potential engagements may pose risks to shipping operations. No Media Collaboration. #maritimesecurity #northkorea #russia #ukrainerussiawar #nationalsecurity #homelandsecurity #japan #southkorea #ukrainenorthkoreawar

Admiral Samuel Paparo, the chief of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, has issued a stark warning about China's escalating military activities and their implications for Taiwan's security. Recent months have witnessed an unprecedented level of joint military exercises by China, reflecting a significant increase in their operational capabilities and strategic ambitions. Key points include the observation of extensive military maneuvers, including a fleet of 152 vessels and numerous amphibious vehicles, indicating serious preparations for potential conflict. Admiral Paparo noted that these exercises represent the most coordinated efforts he has seen throughout his career, emphasizing the urgency of the situation. China's goal appears to be achieving readiness for a potential invasion of Taiwan by 2027. The island, governed democratically, is viewed by Beijing as a territory that must eventually come under its control. This perspective has led China to increasingly encroach on Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, heightening tensions in the region. Additionally, the strengthening partnership between China and Russia is a growing concern. Joint military operations, including bomber flights near Alaska and coordinated patrols in the Arctic, highlight the deepening military collaboration between these two nations. This partnership complicates the security environment and emphasizes the need for vigilance from the U.S. and its allies. Admiral Paparo also pointed out that ongoing global conflicts, such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East, are depleting U.S. military resources. This situation necessitates an urgent focus on replenishing munitions and enhancing combat readiness. He stressed that the U.S. must be prepared today, as the timeline to 2027 is closing rapidly. In summary, the message is clear: proactive measures and strategic readiness are essential to counter the growing threats in the Indo-Pacific region. The time to act is now, ensuring that we are prepared for any eventuality. #Taiwan #China #MilitaryReadiness #IndoPacific #GlobalSecurity #DefenseStrategy #USMilitary If you found this post insightful, sparked a new idea, or presented valuable advice, please select 💡!

Maritime Security Bulletin and Advisory Re: The Ukrainian Military Has Killed (22) Russian Sailors and Soldiers in the Port of Crimea and Sank a Russian Submarine, Along with Damaging an S-400 Anti-Aircraft System in a Missile Attack. Issued by: Sanborn Analytics Date: August 3rd, 2024 Subject: Ukrainian Military Operations in Crimea - Significant Developments Sanborn Analytics issues this maritime security bulletin and advisory to inform the maritime shipping community and the armed naval forces at sea of a Ukrainian attack on the port of Crimea. On August 3rd, 2024, the Ukrainian military reported significant military actions in the Crimean Peninsula. Ukrainian forces have successfully carried out operations targeting Russian military assets in the region: 1. Russian Submarine Sunk: The Ukrainian military has confirmed the sinking of the Russian submarine "Rostov on Don" in the Crimean port of Sevastopol. Sanborn Analytics has verified that the attack resulted in the deaths of 22 Russian sailors and soldiers. 2. Damage to S-400 Anti-Aircraft System: Ukrainian forces have significantly damaged an S-400 'Triumf' anti-aircraft missile system. The attack on August 2nd, 2024, reportedly caused extensive damage to four launchers of the system. Implications for Maritime Operations: - Increased Risk: The recent military actions have heightened risks for maritime operations in and around the Crimean Peninsula. Ship operators and naval forces should exercise heightened vigilance and consider potential disruptions or escalations in the region.    - Enhanced Security Measures: All maritime entities operating in the Black Sea and nearby waters are advised to review and enhance their security protocols, including monitoring for any potential retaliatory actions. Contact Information: For further details or inquiries, please contact: - Email: outreach@sanbornanalytics.us - Phone: (+1)(617)539-6114 Media Credit: Reuters and G Captain (see link) Sanborn Analytics continues to monitor the situation closely and will provide updates as more information becomes available. Stay safe and vigilant. Sanborn Analytics #maritimesecurity #ukraine #russia #ukrainerussiawar #nationalsecurity #homelandsecurity #nato #blacksea https://lnkd.in/gYJJzBhE

🚢 Russian Black Sea Fleet's Last Patrol Ship Departs Crimea 🚢 In a significant development, the last patrol ship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet remaining in Crimea has departed, as confirmed by a spokesman for the Ukrainian armed forces. This suggests that Ukraine's strategic campaign to drive the Russian Navy out of the western half of the Black Sea has succeeded, with the risk of Ukrainian drone and missile attacks around Crimea becoming too high for Russia's surface fleet. The final holdout was a Project 1135 frigate/patrol ship, known to NATO as the Krivak-class, built during the Cold War for the Soviet Navy. Of the original 40, only three remain in active Russian service, including the less heavily-armed KGB patrol-ship version, Pytlivyy, assigned to the Black Sea Fleet. "Given that they have not been able to patrol for a while, the movement vector... We can assume that this is a transition between bases," said Ukrainian Navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk to the Kyiv Independent. "[This] indicates the Russians' understanding that they must leave Crimea. At least [their] ships." Despite lacking a traditional navy, Ukraine's drone boat and missile attacks have significantly impacted the Black Sea Fleet, damaging or destroying roughly 30% of its commissioned ships since the full-scale invasion in 2022. This includes high-profile targets like the fleet flagship cruiser Moskva and the Kilo-class sub Rostov-on-Don. Ukraine's unconventional campaign has drawn global attention, influencing strategies from the U.S. Navy to China's PLA Navy and affecting security approaches in regions like Taiwan and the Red Sea. #Ukraine #Russia #BlackSeaFleet #NavalWarfare #DefenseStrategy #Crimea

Maritime Security Bulletin and Geopolitical Update Re: U.S. President Joe Biden Has Given Ukraine the Green Light to Use U.S. Long-Range Missiles Against Russian and North Korean Troops Inside Russia.   Issued by Sanborn Analytics   Date: November 17th, 2024   Contact: outreach@sanbornanalytics.us | (+1)(617)539-6114  Sanborn Analytics issues this maritime security bulletin to advise the maritime shipping community and the armed naval forces at sea of significant geopolitical developments impacting global maritime security in the Black Sea Region.  On November 17th, 2024, U.S. President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to deploy U.S.-supplied long-range ATACMS missiles for strikes inside Russia, according to a report by The New York Times. This decision marks a pivotal shift in U.S. military policy and escalates the scope of Western support for Ukraine amid ongoing hostilities.  The policy change comes as Russia, bolstered by North Korean troops, plans a large-scale assault on Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region. While U.S. officials caution that this move is unlikely to alter the broader trajectory of the conflict, it is intended to enhance Ukraine’s ability to target critical Russian and North Korean military assets. The decision also signals a deterrent posture toward North Korea, which has increasingly aligned with Moscow.  President Biden’s decision to supply these advanced missile systems represents a reversal of prior U.S. policy, which sought to avoid escalatory actions that could deepen the conflict.  The maritime shipping community and naval forces operating in the Black Sea and adjacent waters should remain vigilant. The potential for increased military activity in the region poses heightened risks to maritime routes, with the possibility of collateral disruptions to commercial and naval operations.  Sanborn Analytics will continue monitoring developments and providing timely updates.  Media Credit: The Kyiv Independent, The New York Times (see link).  #maritimesecurity #ukraine #russia #northkorea #ukrainerussiawar #ukrainenorthkoreawar https://lnkd.in/eFv5Er2d

BBC [excerpt]: #Russia and #China have staged a joint patrol over the north #Pacific Ocean and the Bering Sea near the coast of #Alaska. The two countries have carried out several joint patrols in the past, and Russia regularly flies its bombers over the Bering Sea. But Wednesday’s joint patrol was the first that brought together bombers from both countries in the north Pacific area. Moscow and Beijing said it was "not aimed at any third party", while the US-Canadian North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) said the bombers, which it intercepted, stayed in #international airspace and were “not seen as a threat”. But Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski described the event as an “unprecedented provocation by our adversaries”, adding that it was “the first time they have been intercepted operating together.” China has said the patrol has “nothing to do with the current international and regional situation". Russian TU-95MS strategic missile carriers and the Chinese air force's Xian H-6 strategic bombers were deployed, according to Russia. China and Russia have developed closer ties since Moscow was placed under sanctions by the West following its invasion of #Ukraine in February 2022. Any display of deepening cooperation is watched with apprehension by the US and European countries. Earlier this month, Moscow and Beijing wrapped up their fourth joint naval patrol in the northern and western Pacific Ocean. #Nato countries issued a joint statement at the end of a recent summit in Washington accusing China of being a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war in Ukraine and urging it to “cease all material and political support" to the country's war effort. In a report on #Arctic security published on Monday, the US Department of #Defence expressed concern over the two countries' “growing alignment”, and predicted that their military cooperation would continue to increase. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected this, saying Russian-Chinese cooperation in the Arctic could only contribute to an atmosphere of “stability and predictability” in the area. #news #geopolitics

🚨 USA 🇺🇲, Canada 🇨🇦 jets intercepted China 🇨🇳, Russia 🇷🇺 Bombers and Fighters near #Alaska. 1️⃣ North American Aerospace Defense Command (#NORAD) said that they have 'detected and intercepted' 2 🇷🇺 #Tu95 and 2 🇨🇳 #H6 bomber aircraft flying over Alaska ADIZ. 2️⃣ The Alaskan ADIZ zone stretches 150 miles from US and is outside US airspace but the 🇺🇲 requires aircrafts to identify themselves. 3️⃣ 🇷🇺 flying it's bombers through this zone has been intercepted before as well but this was the first time when it was accompanied by 🇨🇳 bombers. 4️⃣ 🇷🇺 and 🇨🇳 activities in the melting Arctic caps has become a new yet frequent thing which is a matter of provocation for 🇺🇲 and 🇨🇦. 5️⃣ This joint patrolling is part of the newly fabricated and growing alliance of 🇷🇺 and 🇨🇳 where they mirror it's patrol as navigation international waters by 🇺🇲 in the #SouthChinaSea and the waters close to it. 6️⃣ The present geopolitical dynamics are shifting away from the US-led world order and in this era of contested multipolarity, #RussiaChina cooperation and related actions signal a challenge to the same. https://lnkd.in/gUT4APb2 FOLLOW CATS ON X FOR MORE DAILY INSIGHTS. https://x.com/CATS_2024

On 21 March 1984, K-314 collided with the aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk in the Sea of Japan. Kitty Hawk was not significantly damaged (it looked bad, but she was underway to the docks) but the Soviet submarine K-314 had to be towed away. WW3 broke out and we all died. Of course not. But many Tom Clancy fantasists thinks that the SCS will be the powder keg to kick start WW3 or US-China conflict. The SCS is strategically important to China and the sea trade in East Asia. China occupied the atolls because it is a continental power, not a maritime one. Their intention is to create a buffer zone and push out the line of conflict as far away from the coast of China and Hainan as possible. All the atolls are limited by size - none of them are going to be the size of Diego Garcia. They are platforms to project some offensive threat - some because there a few places for missile launchers to hide on an atoll. And while they occupy 27 atolls, they present less offensive fire power than a CVBG. So no, I dun think China will fight to the death over the SCS. Taiwan maybe. An invasion from Siberia - yeah. So for some reason, SCMP is talking about Philippines at the same level as Japan and the US. The US presence on Okinawa dwarfs all their presence in SEA. Japan's military might on a bad day - naval and aerial fire power is probably all of ASEAN combined. I don't see US marines dying because of The Second Thomas Shoal, nor Japanese. I do see China losing even more goodwill among ASEAN nations that are neutral and claimants if China occupies the Second Thomas Shoal. And this would (could?) strategically be bad for their investment and influence in Asia. And China would not want to tilt the balance of US aid to Taiwan further if they do so. So as long as Beijing is okay with Chinese washing Philippine vessels, and chose not to escalate; and everyone is okay with PHP filming it - it becomes merely a talking point. An unresolved, important talking point; but this is not the Fulda Gap.

Unprecedented but predictable: #Japan warship sails through #Taiwan Strait for 1st time ⚠ Earlier this year, in the article "Sailing close to the wind" (https://lnkd.in/ePyZ584f), I argued that Japan was emerging as a potent regional actor increasingly involved in cross-strait security dynamics. Indicators include: - Counterstrikes integrated into “cooperative posture” with the US - Keen Edge 24 and its Taiwan scenario  - Japan-Philippines-US Trilateral Defense Policy Dialogue - Official Security Assistance - Multiple RAAs - Expanding joint naval patrols & military exercises - Declaratory policy on “peace & stability in Taiwan Strait” I explain this evolution through a deterrence-entanglement dilemma: #China rise & aggressive posturing compels Tokyo to strengthen its armed forces & alliance with the US, but this heightens the risk of entanglement to a new high amid growing Taiwan Strait tensions. As such, Japan feels the need to actively shape its nearby environment to reduce the risk of cross-strait crisis, thereby lowering the probability of entanglement. The warship strait transit thus doesn't have much to do with the recent violation of Japan's airspace by a Chinese spy plane or the Liaoning carrier entry into its contiguous zone. Also, structural factors being the cause of Japan's involvement in cross-strait dynamics, the trend is expected to endure whoever becomes the next Prime Minister. Lastly, Japan's Taiwan-related initiatives skew its traditionally balanced China policy toward deterrence. Sino-Japanese tensions may grow dangerously in the months & years to come, as Beijing already regards Japan as sailing close to the wind. https://lnkd.in/efnrSkNr