Allow me to be among the first to acknowledge the victor of the US presidential election. I had little doubt of the outcome, for President Putin managed an outstanding, long-term strategic campaign, and people around the world responded. It really was a masterfully played game.
The US component of his campaign will resound, as it was a truly momentous step focused on creating a chaotic new world order. The strategic outcomes will reach us even here, far from the madding crowd. As business leaders, we need to adjust our strategies, but fortunately fairly recent history offers many lessons. I suggest taking a look at the period prior to the Great War and World War 2.
Fascism (let us not mince words) is predictable in an aging population, and history offers many clues:
- A new era of protectionism, likely to escalate into trade wars. We will be drawn into these, and it will probably reach a point where we have to choose between China and the United States. I suspect it will be the US, in which case the dairy industry could be severely threatened.
- War. Ukraine will have to surrender to Russia, unless European nations decide to fully take up the fight (but the memory of war is still strong in Europe). The Baltic / Scandinavian states, if not invaded, will have to tread a much more difficult path. Iran, North Korea and China will feel more empowered as the USA steps away from the world order, giving them confidence to become more aggressive. Buy war stocks.
- Climate & Environment. We have effectively abandoned dreams of mitigating climate change. Our attention must shift to the massive infrastructure investment. This will be funded by the public purse; country deficits & debt will balloon as taxes are cut for the wealthy.
- Venture Capital. The wealthy will have the problem of what to do with the money. The VC sector should be a beneficiary of this transfer. Some of this may even flow through to innovation alongside the ego projects.
- Cronyism. Don't expect it to get easier to come up with products that replace legacy industries: The President needs to slow down the rate of industrial innovation to ensure that Russia and its allies can keep up. This offers opportunities for the tertiary suppliers to legacy industries, but expect the tax of corruption to increase.
- Productivity will suffer, so the lives of ordinary people will get harder.
Instability is the watchword. Empires are messy in their waning years as power vacuums are created. Demographics create political lurches. President Putin is 72. Trump will be the oldest in US history, but at least Vance is in the wings prepared as the new figurehead.
Our greatest business challenge will be coping with the uncertainty, and moving quickly to take advantage of opportunities created by rapid political change.
The tragedy will be the human cost. Tempting as it may be, do not leave your kindness behind, for this too shall pass.
Donald Trump’s stunning victory makes him among the most consequential American presidents since Franklin D. Roosevelt. He has defined a new political era, for his country and the world https://lnkd.in/e4eCzCCG