Tomás Pueyo’s Post

Total DESTRUCTION of tech jobs: devs, but also probably PMs, designers, and others. The graph below shows software development job postings in the US. They have plummeted. A big chunk of this was the pandemic glut of hiring and low interest rates. But notice how demand is now 30% below pre-pandemic! Demand is so low that career fairs are being canceled because *no company wants to hire*! Where is this trend going, and what's causing it? Aside from post-pandemic and interest rates, the dominant factor in the future is AI, and how it gives superpowers to both developers and non-developers. Eg: • Klarna shut down Salesforce and Workday: AI allowed them to rebuild these services from scratch (!!!) • Amazon Q, is saving them $260 million annually and reclaiming 4,500 developer-years. • Coding now is even easier with Claude, Replit, and the last version of ChatGPT 4o preview. I looked into all this in detail in my latest article, and concluded that: • Some jobs are safer than others. Eg, UX designers are probably much safer than QA engineers • Big tech companies are much less safe than before. Joining small companies might be a better path. You don't want to rely on one single employer anymore. Instead, you need to be nimble and develop skills to quickly change companies. • Learn all the new AI tools in your field. Their development won’t stop, so you must be in constant learning mode. ChatGPT, Claude, Cursor.ai, Perplexity, Midjourney, Runway ML, Replit… You name it. Try to rethink every task you do using AI. • Consider building things yourself. This is an age of creators and solopreneurs. You don't need to ask for permission. Just start. You can be one! https://lnkd.in/dEUgwi6c

  • chart, line chart
Mario G.

Software Engineering | Machine Learning | Ruby on Rails | Node.js | LLMs | AI | SRE | Data Engineering

3mo

Tech jobs are leaving HCOL and *never* coming back. Why? Some people say salaries were too inflated but I disagree, code is very valuable when properly written. The industry got inflated with garbage work. What's garbage work? Imagine a team at a FAANG costing ~£40,000 a month spending 2 weeks deciding the box shadow on a button by doing multi armed bandit testing over A/B + ML pipeline + ETL + a podcast + being a tiktok influencer + DEI hire ally + having attrition wars with other departments over the button That's garbage work and I've seen it almost everywhere since early 2019. Engineers overseas got better by a large factor but only got more expensive at a smaller factor. Someone on 100k euros in Poland can happily raise a family and stop worrying. 100k in London? It covers just you, maybe... AI is getting better. It can't replace good engineers but it can surely replace right now the bottom 20% It's also making the top 20% a lot better. The only solution is to adjust for it. I am very sad to see my industry in this state. But this is a very necessary recession. I hope the people that weren't supposed to be here never come back

Luca Pierantozzi

Software Developer/Engineer/Programmer/Indie Games Developer

3mo

What AI ? LLM algorithms ? It's just applied statistics with weights. It's nothing magic. The code it assembles is far from the Holy Grail of programming even though managers might believe that.

Hampus Poppius

Freelance Data Science Consultant | PhD Economics | Expertise in Experimentation, Pricing, & Consumer Behavior

3mo

What does the chart look like if you start it a couple of years earlier? This one seems to zoom in on some very recent big swings, but I think a couple of more years back before the pandemic would be helpful.

Andrew Shi

Bizops @ StitchFix

3mo

-Big tech companies are much less *safe* than before from an absolute basis, but relative to smaller companies I would say they are actually safer than before. -Most of the valuation gains / recouping in tech seem to have recouped in large cap companies, not mid/small and certainly not in most pre-IPO companies

It seems another signal of the economy slowing down. The same trend can be seen in the cars and chip manufacturer that are a good benchmark to measure economic pulse as those represent the base of discretionary spending. FED 50 basis point interest cut is aligning to the new phase...however the stock market will realize it only during the next quarterly release.

A Shreef

Head of Product. Coach. Ex: Booking.com, Ankorstore, Startup founder

3mo

I was about to write a short piece advising everyone to start becoming fullstack. Being T shaped is not going be enough anymore. Not sure if the small companies are going to help safer though, but it’s a better environment for becoming fullstack

Stefano Vincenti

Helping companies accelerate digital teams | IT, AI, data & analytics | Scrum & Kanban Geek | GenAI co-founder | Agile Lecturer at IT University of Copenhagen

3mo

What about scrum masters in development teams? I believe it is even harsher for these roles?

They don't post jobs in the US... does not mean they don't hire. Many companies in the US are now hiring distributed teams of dev outside the US.

Jose M Zabía Bolado

Stanford GSB MBA | Rafael del Pino Alum | Consultant | Equity and Real Estate Investor | FinTech entrepreneur

3mo

¿Cuándo empiezas a escribir posts vía PueyoPT?

John Anthony Radosta

Executive | ML & Cloud Engineer | Terraform | MLOps | GCP | Go | Python | React | Finance | Energy | Government | FedRAMP | Security Clearance | FINRA 65 | Avid Golfer (9 Handicap)

3mo

All of those headlines are absolute BS. Don't care what they say, AI can't even write HTML code at a professional level. They're saying these things to push their own AI products.

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