Tim Stracke’s Post

It seems incredible that I even need to rebut this myth but even on LinkedIn I find people who believe that the UK 'cut itself off from its largest trading partner.' But in reality: 1. The UK and the EU have a trade agreement, the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), that granted immediate tariff-free and quota-free access to each other's markets. This is unusual. Typical EU agreements lower tariffs, or increase tariff-free quotas, gradually over many years, and many never grant full quota-free access, especially for agricultural goods. 2. Proof, if it were needed, that the UK has not stopped trading with the EU, can be seen in the UK’s trade figures. If Brexit trade friction had lowered trade with the EU, we would expect to see a decline in UK goods exports to the EU but not in exports to non-EU countries. However, UK goods exports to both EU and non-EU countries have moved in tandem. (see graph in article below) 3. Nor have UK goods imports from the EU fallen. They have done better than imports from non-EU countries. (see graph in article below) It is hard to claim that the UK has cut itself off from its largest trading partner if trade with that partner has remained unchanged while our imports from non-EU countries have fallen dramatically. 4. The continued strength of UK and EU trade is even more impressive when you consider that goods manufactured outside the UK or EU, or made using too many imported components, are no longer counted as UK or EU exports under the Rules of Origin in the TCA. The rules of origin have greatly reduced UK exports of clothing, footwear and tropical fruits as well as former 'Rotterdam effect' imports. i.e. imports from Asia or the Americas landed in the Netherlands or Belgium and then miscounted by Intrastat as a UK import from the EU. 5. Some UK exports have been falling for years due to UK government policy, most noticeably the UK’s exports of oil and gas and their derivative products such as plastics and chemicals made with hydrocarbons. This has nothing to do with Brexit, but some Remainers blamed it on Brexit by failing to review how UK trade was changing before the referendum. 6. Admittedly, UK companies that export to or import from the EU must now fill in customs forms and this will have some cost to them, but previously those costs were borne by UK and EU taxpayers. Being a member of the EU was never free. Companies may resent paying their own costs when they trade with the EU, but they don’t share their trading profits with UK taxpayers, so why should taxpayers pay their costs? Meanwhile, UK consumers have not only been paying for these companies’ EU trading costs for years but they were also forced to buy more expensive EU products because cheaper non-EU goods were made uncompetitive by the addition of EU tariffs or restricted completely by tiny EU tariff-free quotas. All of the charts and other points are in the article below. #trade #brexit #UK #EU #tradefriction

How might a Trump US administration influence Australian Retail ? A Trump adminstration policies could influence Australian retail in various ways: Potential for Tariffs A Trump administration might adopt protectionist policies, potentially impacting trade between the U.S. and its allies. Any changes in tariffs on Australian exports could affect Australian brands and retail businesses with operations in the U.S and imports, Increased Costs for Imports Retailers reliant on American goods or materials might face higher costs if tariffs increase. This could lead to price adjustments and could affect competitive dynamics in the Australian market. Global Supply Chain Impacts Supply Chain Disruptions A more protectionist stance might lead to supply chain bottlenecks, particularly if there are restrictions or changes in policies around Asia-Pacific trade. Australian retailers sourcing products from Asia may face delays or increased costs. Pressure for Local Manufacturing If global supply chains become more volatile, there could be a push toward localized or diversified sourcing strategies, which may prompt Australian retailers to seek domestic or alternative sources. U.S. Consumer Sentiment and Spending We could feel indirect effects if U.S. consumer sentiment shifts. If American tourists visit Australia in fewer numbers or cut back on spending, this could reduce revenues, particularly for retailers in tourist-heavy areas. Currency Fluctuations Policy shifts in the U.S. often impact global currency markets. A strong or volatile U.S. dollar could influence Australian retail by affecting the cost of imported goods or the competitiveness of Australian exports. A Trump administration might push for U.S. economic policies that could influence global interest rates. Australian retailers could see impacts on financing costs or consumer spending if local interest rates respond. Regulatory and Environmental Policies A Trump administration may continue to roll back environmental policies. Australian retailers, especially those targeting eco-conscious consumers, may see a shift in how environmental messaging resonates, especially with younger, sustainability-focused buyers. Digital Commerce Regulationa If digital commerce policies evolve under a Trump administration, Australian companies operating in the U.S. may face changes in data privacy, compliance, or digital marketing regulations, Consumer Confidence and Buying Patterns U.S. economic policies often affect global consumer confidence. If the U.S. experiences instability, it could dampen global sentiment, potentially impacting Australian retail, especially in discretionary spending areas like fashion and lifestyle. The indirect effects on Australian consumer sentiment, currency fluctuations, and global supply chains may be the most significant areas to watch for Australian retail businesses. An interesting 4 years ahead

Donald Trump's return to the White House could reshape U.S. retail. Proposed tariffs on imports (up to 60% for goods from China) may drive up prices on essentials like apparel, hitting lower-income consumers hardest. While "Made in USA" incentives could boost local production, higher costs and supply chain disruptions are likely. Retailers should prepare for shifting consumer behavior and rising costs. #RetailTrends #FashionIndustry #ConsumerImpact https://lnkd.in/gtuiRNnm

Australian fashion 👖👗👙 brands exporting to the U.S. are gaining momentum 📈, but the landscape may shift. With the potential for renewed tariffs on China made goods, supply chains could be disrupted, impacting costs and market access. Is your brand ready to navigate these challenges to sustain your U.S. presence and build resilient international 🌎 operations? #crossborder #ecommerce #growth

Is supply chain diversification front of mind?

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗗𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽’𝘀 𝗘𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗠𝗲𝗮𝗻 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗻 𝗥𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗲𝗿𝘀? 🇺🇸 ➡️ 🇪🇺 With the US election results in, European retailers are preparing for the impact of Trump’s suggested policies on trade, supply chains, and consumer behaviour. From potential increases in tariffs to changes in international trade agreements, this new administration could significantly affect profit margins and business strategies in Europe. In our latest blog post, we explore what an “America First” approach might mean for European brands and how retailers can adapt to this changing landscape. Discover the challenges and opportunities ahead for European retailers under the new US leadership: https://lnkd.in/ezmPwUQT #Retail #InternationalTrade #SupplyChain #USElection #GlobalMarkets

Global Trade Challenges: What Retailers Can Do to Adapt and Thrive 🌍📦 The global trade landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with tariffs, shifting regulations, and supply chain disruptions impacting businesses across industries. From the automotive sector’s struggles between China and Europe to the looming challenges faced by retailers, the question is: How can retailers navigate this uncertainty and emerge stronger? 💡 Key Takeaways for Retailers: 1️⃣ Diversify Sourcing to Build Resilience Trade tensions often expose vulnerabilities in supply chains, especially for those heavily reliant on a single region or supplier. Retailers must: Expand sourcing to alternative regions. Strengthen local and regional supplier partnerships. Explore nearshoring opportunities to reduce lead times and risks. Action: Diversification reduces dependency on unpredictable trade routes, ensuring smoother operations during disruptions. 2️⃣ Leverage Technology for Visibility and Agility Real-time data and advanced analytics are critical for staying ahead of disruptions. Tools like AI-driven forecasting and IoT-enabled tracking provide retailers with actionable insights to: Monitor inventory in real time. Predict risks and adjust procurement strategies proactively. Action: Greater visibility enables smarter, faster decision-making, keeping supply chains efficient even in volatile conditions. 3️⃣ Optimize Costs Without Compromising Value Tariffs and trade challenges increase costs, but retailers can mitigate this by: Adjusting assortments to focus on higher-margin products. Emphasizing locally sourced alternatives. Communicating value-added benefits, such as sustainability or quality, to consumers. Action: By being transparent about costs and focusing on perceived value, retailers can maintain customer trust and loyalty. 4️⃣ Case in Point: Lowe’s Proactive Strategy Lowe’s provides a great example of adapting to global trade dynamics. With approximately 40% of its products sourced internationally, Lowe’s has diversified its supply chain to prepare for potential tariffs. By exploring new suppliers and optimizing its logistics network, Lowe’s is minimizing risks and staying ahead of disruptions. Action: A proactive approach ensures continuity and positions the business to thrive despite challenges. Retailers must follow suit by building flexibility into their supply chains. Looking Ahead Global trade challenges are here to stay, but with the right strategies, retailers can turn uncertainty into opportunity. By diversifying sourcing, leveraging technology, and communicating value to customers, retailers can build resilience and navigate disruptions with confidence. Link: https://lnkd.in/dpcPG_b2 💬 How is your business adapting to global trade challenges? Let’s share ideas and strategies! #GlobalTrade #RetailResilience #SupplyChainInnovation #Tariffs #RetailLeadership #Retail #Lowes #HomeImprovement

There are still a few things up in the air about 2025, but for the most part, it’s safe to say we’re about to see some dramatic changes in the business climate due to increases in tariffs and retaliatory tariffs in response. This will raise costs on most consumer goods and raw materials and suppress exports. As a manufacturer and retailer, I’m not particularly excited about this prospect. Sure, we’ll likely see lower taxes, but it will be far more difficult to realize those gains as we manage the volatility in supply costs and the corresponding drop in demand. I imagine many businesses are in the same boat, but here is how it shakes out in my corner of the world. To start, the majority of the finished goods in my business are assembled here in the USA, but we source quite a few components and raw materials from abroad. Based on the last trade war, I’m planning for a minimum increase of 50% in cost for most of the raw materials we bring in, with an upper level of 200% for some categories. On the “bright side,” we may see a small reduction in fuel surcharges on both inbound and outbound domestic freight, though I expect any benefit will be offset by increases in maintenance costs. The last time this happened, we absorbed the costs to keep our prices in line with consumer expectations. This time, we won’t have that luxury, and prices will need to go up. This will lead to lower sales overall, especially with the current regulatory stance on interstate sales taxes, but I expect the effect on our exports will be far worse. Today, roughly 40% of our business is international. It used to be higher, but the last trade war effectively ended our growing business in China as they enacted stiff import duties and erected an impassable wall for orders over $120 USD. The US will likely put trade agreements in place with our largest partners (UK, Canada, and Australia), but I suspect the EU will lag, and there’s zero chance of China opening back up. All this might sound alarmist, but it’s actually a pretty mild take based on early financial guidance as well as my actual historical data. Once the excitement about the stock market fades, I wouldn’t be surprised to see news stories about businesses doing some frenzied buying over the next 90 days. I’m certainly looking into it myself, but as a general consumer retailer, this time of year is when you bank cash, not spend it. If you’re a consumer, I would advise you to buy now and buy hard. Prices are definitely not coming down anytime soon—well, except for post-holiday clearance sales. Those bargains are going to be unreal as businesses scramble for cash. Some very interesting times ahead! #business #tariffs #taxes #2025 #import #export #manufacturing #retail #politics

The NRF report looks at how Trump’s proposed tariffs — a 10% to 20% levy on all imported goods, and 60% to 100% on goods coming from China — would affect six major consumer categories: clothing, toys, furniture, household appliances, footwear and travel goods. The analysis found that the tariffs would have a “significant and detrimental impact” on the prices of goods in those categories, particularly those made in China, and result in cost increases far too large for U.S. retailers to absorb. #shipping #FedEx

🌟 Beauty Industry on the Brink: Tariffs Shake Up Supply Chains! 🌍💄 The proposed 60% tariffs on Chinese-made goods could transform the beauty business, impacting prices, supply chains, and consumer habits. Brands like E.l.f Cosmetics face challenges with cost hikes, while industry giants like Estée Lauder are better positioned with domestic manufacturing. As inflation-weary shoppers watch price tags closely, agility and strategy are key to thriving in this new landscape. 🚨💰 How will beauty brands pivot to stay competitive? 🌟✨ #BeautyBusiness #SupplyChain #Tariffs #Ecommerce #GlobalMarkets #MakeupTrends #BusinessStrategy