Tim Callen’s Post

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Visiting Fellow, Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington (AGSIW)

My latest thoughts on how Saudi is financing its ambitious investment agenda.

Financing Saudi Arabia’s Ambitious Reforms

Financing Saudi Arabia’s Ambitious Reforms

https://agsiw.org

Tim Callen

Visiting Fellow, Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington (AGSIW)

6mo

Everything else being equal, Saudi would prefer higher to lower oil revenues. Without higher revenues, it will be very difficult to finance planned spending. Now there are legitimate arguments as to whether the planned spending is needed and certainly much of it will initially go into higher imports of goods and labor. My own view is the successes that Saudi has so far had under Vision 2030 have largely been driven by regulatory and legal reform rather than higher spending.

Frank Bracco

Country Director, Moldova at Tony Blair Institute

6mo

In short I disagree the best course of action is higher oil prices. It's a recipe for slowly surrendering more market share and frustrating allies. The only real best course of action given all the tax regime updates at this stage is to actually get smart about spending. When the fiscal break even is in the high 80s/low 90s even with 15% VAT there is a fundamental problem on the spending side - especially when most of that spending is not generating jobs for Saudi Nationals buy rather low skilled expats and white collar consultants. 

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