Thomas Wille’s Post

Headwinds remain strong for Europe's largest economy... "Production in [Germany's] manufacturing sector fell back by 2.4% on month in July, a notably sharper decline than expected by economists...German factory output has been on yearslong downward path, and now stands more than 16% below its level at the end of 2017." "The slump extends to Germany’s storied automobile makers, with Volkswagen on Monday suggesting that it may close a plant in the country for the first time ever." "Tougher competition from China has made it more difficult for German manufacturers to find overseas buyers...'China’s advanced manufacturing sectors are gaining a significant cost advantage due to substantial government subsidies, in particular in high-tech sectors,'" the ECB said. "The manufacturing sector in France, the second-largest in the eurozone, similarly fell back more than expected in July." "With its largest members faltering, the eurozone economy has struggled to regain momentum following the twin blows of a surge in energy and food prices, and a rise in interest rates to tame that inflation surge." "The European Central Bank cut its key interest rate in June, and investors expect it to do so again next week, but more support may be needed if a sharp slowdown is to be avoided." #Germany #Economy #EU #Competition #China

Good news of the day! The German economy is bouncing back stronger than expected. Curious how? Read on! 👇 Well well, great news from Germany (who would have thought): The industrial order backlog surged by an unexpected 3.9% in June, marking the first increase in manufacturing since the beginning of the year. By the way... economists had only anticipated a 0.5% rise. Even excluding major orders, the growth was a solid 3.3%, indicating a broad distribution of orders ( automotive and IT sectors leading the way 💻 ) Moreover, the consumer sentiment in Germany has significantly improved in recent months, mainly due to higher wages. This suggests that German consumers have not only overcome the inflation and energy crises of 2022/23 but are also nearing pre-pandemic sentiment levels. Maybe a good time to think about further investments in digitalization and efficiency improvements, right? Follow me for more! //Sources: whathappened.io, FAZ, EU Commission #GermanEconomy #EconomicRecovery #Manufacturing #ConsumerSentiment #PositiveTrends

Germany's per capita GDP has been performing significantly worse since late 2019 than in the aftermath of the Great Recession. The current economic stagnation is now unlike any other since WW2. Unfortunately, the outlook for the German economy has now deteriorated even further under a Trump presidency. Being so reliant on exports to the rest of the world, including some 160 billion Euros in exports to the US, will now be the country's Achilles heel. A potential trade war would really hurt the German economy and forecasters have already revised the growth forecast for 2025 down. Not a bright outlook! Have a look at my piece on why the German economy is so vulnerable and what that means for the labor market! #Germany #exports #manufacturing #tariffs #tradewar #economy #workers https://lnkd.in/e8_d85bU

The performance of the #German economy over the last two decades was a combination of #Industrial expertise and reputation, cheap Russian #naturalgas and finally the #globalization of the economy as a platform For exports . Same model adopted later on by other countries anchored to Germany like #Czechia or #Slovakia or some of the Nordics. Energy for Germany will not be cheap for quite some time, a global platform for exports gave its place to a polarised environment with #China dubbed as the enemy of the West, and the #madeinGermany lost a bit of its shine . So the entire business model doesn’t work out . Most analysts agree that German industry will decline for another decade . I am curious to see what are the famous structural reforms that will turn around the economy. #Lenders have not been performing better either in the largest economy of the EU and have long been targets for acquisitions. Lower GDP growth is traditionally linked to lower #profitability for banks . Now it seems that they will be far more vulnerable, so we could see suitors beyond Unicredit with the ambition to acquire lenders in EU largest economy .

Just read this article earlier this morning form "Prosperous America" and it highlights a reality that needs urgent attention 📣 U.S. manufacturing's share of GDP has dropped significantly. We need a roadmap to increase that share to 15% and beyond to stay competitive and secure in global markets. With the election behind us, it’s time for our leaders to move from promises to action. Manufacturing is the backbone of our economy. It creates quality jobs, strengthens supply chains, and builds a more resilient nation. We need bold policies that support domestic manufacturing growth and innovation. In 2025 let’s get America back on the map in manufacturing and show the world the power of American industry 🇺🇸 Let's get to work! #usamanufacturing #manufacturingjobs #merica #recruiting #gdp #gettowork https://lnkd.in/ecppvMkA

2024 U.S. Trade in the Spotlight: A Strong Start to the Year. In the first four months of 2024, U.S. trade with the world saw a notable increase of 2.16% compared to the same period last year. This growth underscores the dynamic nature of international trade and highlights the significant contributions of the U.S.'s top trade partners: Mexico, Canada, China, Germany, and Japan. Together, these five countries represent nearly half of the U.S.'s global trade, reflecting the interconnected nature of the modern economy. As the U.S. continues to engage robustly with its top trade partners, the increase in trade activities during the early months of 2024 points to a positive economic trend. With key exports like oil, civilian aircraft, and passenger vehicles driving growth, and imports including passenger vehicles, oil, and advanced technology products, such as cell phones, the trade landscape remains a critical component of the U.S. economy. [Source: US Trade Numbers] #humanstandard #logistics #forwarding

#Asia #Market #Brief: Nov 12, 2024 1. **Asian Markets Decline as Hong Kong and South Korea Lead Losses** The Hang Seng index drops 2.8% and South Korea's Kospi falls 1.9%, reflecting regional market pressures and investor caution. 2. **Taiwan Semiconductor Faces U.S. Export Restrictions, Impacting Tech Sector** U.S. orders halt on advanced chip shipments to China, affecting Taiwan and South Korea's tech-heavy markets. 3. **India's Direct Tax Collection Rises 15.4% Amid Mixed Corporate Earnings** Strong fiscal performance contrasts with varied earnings results from companies like Blue Dart Express and Britannia. Stay updated with the latest #market_insights: join our free #Telegram channel https://lnkd.in/dGbDg5Uh

Avoid Germany... all is not well in the Rhine The DAX’s ‘old­-economy’ tilt limits the potential for multiples expansion, while low productivity and much higher energy costs point to weaker profit growth than in the post­-2008 period. Germany is very vulnerable to a DM manufacturing downturn. Industrials and auto (31% of the DAX) get 75% of their revenues from sales in the EU and the US. ECB tightening and a shift in spending back to services translates into higher risks to earnings than markets with a lower exposure to ‘value’ cyclicals. Headwinds are particularly evident for the auto sector, the poster child for German productivity. Das Auto has long enjoyed a competitive advantage in ICU luxury vehicles. ICU sales, however, are rapidly losing ground against CN and US electric vehicles. While DE makers are now investing in EV technology to catch up, industry experts predict they will keep losing market share. Another important factor hurting margins is a ‘step­-change’ in energy costs. Energy costs at German factories are 70% higher than before 2020, exceeding the increase in sales prices by 30­-points. The biggest issue is a loss of access to cheap Russian gas, forcing factories to replace this critical input by expensive imports from Norway. Numera Analytics #germany #dax #europe #eu #dm #manufacturing #industrials #ecb #stocks #energycosts #investing #dasauto #luxurycars #de #ev #margins

💡 Market Insights by Bas Kooijman MSTA 💡 ◾ U.S.: stocks surged following the Republican win in the White House and Congress, with investors optimistic about potential tax cuts, deregulation, and economic growth policies. ◾ Europe: stocks declined, with the STOXX Europe 600 Index down 0.84% as concerns over potential U.S. trade policies affecting European growth weighed on sentiment. ◾ Japan: real wages declined slightly, and household spending fell, signaling ongoing economic challenges despite nominal wage increases. ◾ China: stock markets rallied, with the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 both gaining over 5.5%, following the announcement of significant local government debt relief measures. Overall, global markets are adjusting to significant political changes and economic data releases, with investors closely monitoring the potential impacts of policy shifts in the U.S. #marketinsights #globalmarkets #us #europe #japan #china

After years of China being Germany’s main trading partner, the U.S. looks like it’s quietly taking that top spot as the year progresses.⁠ ⁠ Combined exports and imports between Germany and the U.S. totaled 63 billion euros ($68 billion) between January and March on 2024. Meanwhile, trade between Germany and China came to just below 60 billion euros, according to CNBC calculations. Reuters first reported the change on Thursday.⁠ ⁠ Several factors played a role in the change, Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro research at ING Research, told CNBC.⁠ ⁠ “This shift is the result of several factors: strong growth in the U.S. has boosted demand for German products. […] At the same time, decoupling from China, weaker domestic demand in China and China being able to produce goods it previously imported from Germany (mainly cars) reduced German exports to China,” he said.⁠ ⁠ Read more: https://cnb.cx/3JSZ0tM