Thilan Wickramasinghe’s Post

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has warned of global monetary policy uncertainty in the face of increased trade friction & geopolitical wrangling. The build-up of financial imbalances, stretched valuations & leveraged positions may amplify these risks. The central bank also stated triggers for market volatility include more hawkish than expected Bank Japan rate decision, US data which challenge the soft-landing narrative & fiscal sustainability concerns. Back in August global markets were out of control following weaker than expected US July nonfarm payrolls which sparked US recession fears, as well as borrowing cost concerns following a rate hike from Japan's central bank. The 12.4% loss on the Nikkei was the worst day for the index since the Black Monday of 1987 & global emerging-market currencies tumbled. Some companies in Singapore cited concerns over tensions in Ukraine & the Middle East. And a strong balance sheet of domestic corporates, households & financial institutions helped them cope with higher costs & market volatility. Technically upcoming US tariffs will affect trade & market efficiency in China. Southeast Asia may gain a boost to its GDP in the short-to-mid-term. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has forecasted growth projection for Southeast Asia 4.6% this year. #macroeconomics #geopolitics #inflation #tradeware #geostrategy #japaneconomy #useconomy #southeastasia

China’s property slowdown remains a drag on domestic consumption and investments though exports will likely support 2H growth. Meanwhile, MSCI China is trading back near trough valuation and we see selected oportunities including the Tech stocks with interesting risk-reward. The extent of re-rating however may be capped until there is further policy clarity to reassure investors of the government’s ability to tackle the cyclical and structural growth challenges. Sharing our latest thoughts on China as well as the opportunities in the broader Asia region including South Korea with Emily Chan Tan and Sam Vadas at CNBC. #Maybank #Wealth #Asia #China #SouthKorea

Investor Alert: The ASX is poised to bounce back as Middle East tensions deescalate, shifting focus onto upcoming inflation data. Meanwhile, Citigroup advises selling the shares of Australia's big four banks amid a mixed outlook. Keep an eye on China's rate decision today, which could influence market direction. #ASXUpdate #InvestmentStrategy #MarketTrends

With favourable growth and inflation dynamics, relative value against developed markets and potentially some big alpha opportunities emerging in China, we believe the outlook for Asia fixed income is strong in 2024. Key takeaways: - Asia’s growth outlook is more resilient than in developed markets, thanks to a tech cycle rebound and greater capacity for fiscal support. - Asian central banks can ease monetary policy at a slower pace than developed market counterparts, which could mean higher yields and capital inflows. - Corporate fundamentals look favourable, with most sectors in the recovery phase of the credit cycle which tends to feature improving margins and decreasing leverage. - We believe investors can look through negative headlines around China’s property sector, and we see some of the biggest alpha opportunities in China high yield bonds. By Jenny Zeng, CIO Asia Fixed Income at #AllianzGlobalInvestors #NavigatingRates #Asia #China #FixedIncome *** DIRECT ACCESS TO THE DOCUMENT (pdf) ***

#chartoftheweek: China's stimulus measures, including a reduction in reserve requirements for banks and approximately $114 billion in liquidity support for stocks, provided a significant boost to markets. The CSI 300 surged 15.96% this week, breaking above its long-term moving average for the first time since 2022. The MSCI China A index also saw a strong performance, increasing by 20.33%. Additionally, the MSCI Emerging Markets index rose by 6.6%, benefiting from the favorable impact of China's financial support. These measures helped stabilize and uplift the broader Chinese and emerging markets, reinforcing investor confidence and driving significant gains across the board

Chatting some interesting topics last week Friday on CNBC Africa Closing Bell with Nastassia Arendse --> Local and global market sentiment --> US Banks earnings --> Netflix earnings & the streaming sector --> Will previously winning sectors continue to win as rates come down --> Biggest risk factors for the market now --> What could a likely Trump presidency mean for US equities --> China's efforts to restart its economy

China’s 3Q24 GDP grew 4.6% YoY, the slowest in more than a year. Although the recent slew of policy briefings may not have lived up to expectations, the intent to prevent the economy from going into a downward deflationary spiral is clear. All eyes are now on the NPC standing committee meeting in end Oct/early Nov to see if policymakers will indeed deploy more firepower to turnaround the economy. While the Chinese leaders are certainly not keen to create another stock market or property bubble, we see value in selected tech/consumer as well as dividend plays. Always a pleasure to discuss the markets with Tanvir Gill and Sam Vadas on CNBC. #Maybank #Wealth #China

🌏 In our Q2 Asia Corporates Newsletter, our Asia Pacific research team delves into the macro backdrop currently setting the scene for corporates in the region. 💲 The Federal Reserve is looking set for a delayed, potentially more drawn out and eventually shallower interest rate cycle than in the past. This position puts central banks in Asia in a bind, as higher for longer core rates and a stronger US dollar make it harder for them to respond to their domestic imperatives of growth and inflation. 🛢️ Upside risks to oil are again potentially upsetting the balance of both trade and inflation in the region. Also, while elections in Asia are mostly done, the political calendar is set to heat up in the second half of the year in the lead-up to the US presidential election. This all points to the next few months being likely challenging in Asia. 🚗 However, there are also key opportunities like the Goldilocks-ish macro environment in India, investments being made in ASEAN to move up the semiconductor value chain and Thailand’s efforts to become a regional export hub for Electric Vehicles. For more insights, registered clients can read our full Q2 Asia Corporate Newsletter here: https://lnkd.in/emn6xKCs #dbresearch #electricvehicles #Asia #AsiaPacific Deutsche Bank Sameer Goel Tim Baker Michael Hsueh Liam Fitzpatrick Perry Kojodjojo Bryant Xu Joey Chung

Jeff Ng, SMBC’s Head of Asia Macro Strategy, recently joined Bloomberg News Markets Asia to discuss SMBC’s perspective on China’s manufacturing downturn and the future of the manufacturing PMI. He also examined the macro-outlook and the expected boost in China’s economy from year-end factory activity. "Policy continuity is crucial to monitor. China focuses heavily on domestic self-improvement policies. This focus implies that without changes in fiscal impulse, reliance on monetary policies will likely continue, which might affect economic momentum. As the Fed continues its cuts, other Asian central banks, including the PBOC, might find more room for accommodative monetary policies. However, we do not expect significant rate cuts from China, which could help prevent further economic momentum decline," Jeff shared. View the full interview here (starts at 8:03): https://lnkd.in/gQ2JPEUY   #TeamSMBC #EconomicOutlook

NEW: Emerging market equities could become the next catch-up trade as China’s recovery gains momentum, but the optimal entry point may be after the US election, Fidelity International’s Talib Sheikh said. Read the full interview here: https://lnkd.in/dtppX-54