I recently noticed several news items in the domain of eVTOLs (electric vertical take-off and landing aircrafts). Indian company ePlane is targeting 2026 for the commercialization of its e200x eVTOL. Their government is pushing air taxis because of worsening traffic congestion. Eve Air Mobility obtained a $50 million loan from Citibank to accelerate its eVTOL aircraft development. In China, Xpeng Aeroht broke ground on the world’s first assembly line for flying cars, marking a major milestone to mass adoption. There are many reasons why eVTOLs are among the most underestimated innovations in the mobility sector. There’s media bias, reporting a lot about failures. Many people also seem overly focused on the drawbacks. The clichés are that eVTOLs are loud, have limited range, are much too expensive to produce, difficult to scale, not inclusive, potentially unsafe and it will be a challenge to integrate them in the existing traffic. Though some of these challenges are (temporarily) real, I also feel that people claiming this have a bad case of linear thinking. The tech behind eVTOLs is already very mature, and I believe that scaling them will have an important impact on mobility. eVTOLs are all about speed and comfort, which are very important characteristics in this day and age. They are also incredibly safe, because that is just how the aircraft industry is regulated. Much more than traditional automotive, in fact. Yes, they may still be expensive, but A. that’s peanuts compared to traditional aircrafts and helicopters and B. their cost will be sure to go down when scaled. Their limited range will expand with the latest developments in batteries. Also, they will co-exist with all other vehicles and will only be useful for the more limited trajectories in areas where ground mobility is a challenge. Last, but not least, they are also a LOT less noisy than helicopters. Business model wise, I see this evolve along a dual track approach. In the short term, this will develop like Elon Musk’s approach at Tesla: starting with limited premium luxury carriers for a more well-off audience to secure the funds needed to invest in growth. I do not see this evolve toward a mid-market after that, though, ownership-wise, but in the longer term there is potential for a shared business model. Like the Uber model, where people can order an eVTOL via an app. And in some cases where ground transportation is difficult, as some sort of public transportation, like a flying bus. People lack imagination when it comes to eVTOLs. They see limitations and challenges and don’t think in terms of potential. They also think linearly, comparing them to cars, which is of course very different. I do not see a future where everyone will own a “flying car”. But I see a future with an extremely diverse stack of mobile carriers, where each of them can be used for specific niche trajectories. The age of “one family, one car” is coming to end. This next phase will be about choices.
As always, thanks for sharing Patrick Vanbrabandt 👍 and this may also be an explanation why India has been buying so much physical silver ... it's required for this type of mobility 🤔 #flying #ZPT #ZPE #silver #cars #evtol #futureisnow #tesla
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1wCompletely agree, eVTOLs have immense potential to revolutionize mobility. Linear thinking and media bias are hindering their true impact.