The Pure Gold Company’s Post

The campaign so far has solidified Labour’s large poll lead over the beleaguered Conservatives. The decision by Nigel Farage to take the reins of Reform UK, a challenger party, has intensified the threat to the Tories from their right. Increasingly, therefore, the question is not who will win, but what Labour will do in power. And on economic growth, the avowed centrepiece of Labour’s plan for government, the answer is: TBD! https://lnkd.in/g2U9Nb3z

Keir Starmer and the Labour party are being handed the keys to 10 Downing Street, as had been widely expected. Markets were largely expecting the result, but what comes next will determine the path forward. The Labour government is inheriting a UK economy that has fallen short of expectations for more than a decade, and their ability to spend is being constrained by an ever-growing debt load. That brings about some difficult decisions on government spending and taxation. Here we look to lay out some of those potential implications from both a tax and an investment standpoint:

Today Keir Starmer revealed Labour's plan for government if his party wins the general election on July 4. Notably there were no major surprises, the sign of a leader who's cautiously trying to protect his 20-point poll lead over the Tories. The key policies were: - No increases in income tax, national insurance or VAT - Cap corporation tax at 25% - Abolish the loophole that allows private equity managers to pay capital gains tax rather than income tax on investment returns - Build 1.5 million new homes - Create a new national wealth fund - State-run clean energy company GB Energy - Replace the business rates tax system - Reform workers' rights - Reform planning rules - Increase stamp duty on purchases of residential property by overseas buyers by 1% - Extend the windfall tax on oil & gas companies The manifesto said the tax measures would raise about £8.5 billion -- and you can expect the Conservatives will attack Labour over this being a tax-raising document. Starmer's key pitch was that he's the `change' candidate after what he called the 'chaos' of 14 years of the Conservatives in office. But he also sounded a note of warning: he stressed the severity of the challenges he'll face if he becomes prime minister, and there'd be no quick solutions. ``We know we can't wave a magic wand and pretend that everything will be fixed overnight,'' he said. See our full coverage of the manifesto launch on Bloomberg News, with Ailbhe Rea and Isabella Ward #politics #uk #election https://lnkd.in/emKrM5nG

With a Labour government entering No.10 with a significant majority, we analyse the new government's manifesto and how its finance-related pledges could impact you: https://lnkd.in/euuMDw5V

Those of us who worked for the last Labour government often get asked how different we think the next one will be, if the polls are right and Keir Starmer goes into Number Ten. This article is a lot longer than most of my posts but it's my attempt to answer that question, at least when it comes to economic policy. My starting point is that when you're in Downing Street or the Treasury you don't spend most of your time implementing a pre-prepared policy agenda. You're also dealing with unexpected problems that you had no idea in advance you were going to face. So if you want to understand how a government will behave, don't just look at the list of promises in its manifesto: the things it says it will do in advance. Try to identify the guiding principles that will shape its response to the problems it does not yet know it will face. When it comes to economic policy, this requires understanding how a government's economic thinking and its political strategy will likely interact. Here, there are some points of significant continuity between the approach of Labour under Blair and Brown, and that of Labour under Starmer and Reeves, but there are also some significant differences: https://lnkd.in/eUWiUn4W

If you’re interested in the economic background behind political approaches, this is an excellent explanation of how the 2024 landscape differs from that of 1997, and what we can expect from politicians in response. Thank you Stuart Hudson.

With a Labour government entering No.10 with a significant majority, we analyse the new government's manifesto and how its finance-related pledges could impact you: https://lnkd.in/eZkk7dN3

With a Labour government entering No.10 with a significant majority, we analyse the new government's manifesto and how its finance-related pledges could impact you: https://lnkd.in/gkszQY2N

Of course Mr Hunt is scaremongering. He also completely fails to mention the fiscal impact of his own government’s policies or the current account deficit they created. According to Bloomberg “Brexit is costing the UK economy £100 billion a year ($124 billion), with the effects spanning everything from business investment to the ability of companies to hire workers.” Facts about the cost to the exchequer of Conservative government policies are hotly contested and disputed but even the governments own OBR state that Brexit direct costs are in the region of £30billion + per year; which since implementation would amount to £90+ billion without taking account of shortage of skilled staff or inbound investment. The Bloomberg figure might also prove to be a considerable under estimate.

“The size of Labour’s majority, coupled with relative political instability in Europe’s other major economies (e.g. France and Germany) should play well for a period of stability, predictability and therefore investment and business growth in the UK".   My reaction to the election result has been published this afternoon. You can read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/esrPnFTm