TETSURO AOKI’s Post

The relationship between China and Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries is evolving, with varying degrees of engagement and skepticism. China's influence through investments, particularly in infrastructure, has been met with mixed reactions. While some CEE nations welcome economic ties, others express concerns over dependency and geopolitical implications. The balance between economic benefits and strategic autonomy remains a key discussion point, and CEE countries keep navigating their positions between China and the EU. #ChinaCEE #Geopolitics #EconomicRelations #Trade #CentralEurope #ForeignPolicy Click the link to read!

The recent Indonesia-China joint statement has sparked substantial criticism, particularly regarding a clause on joint development in the South China Sea’s "overlapping claims" area. This point raises two significant implications. First, by agreeing to collaborate in this contested zone, Indonesia may implicitly validate China’s Nine-Dash Line claim, which contradicts Indonesia's longstanding stance that it has no overlapping claims with China. Second, this development suggests Indonesia might be drawn into China’s "bilateral trap," a strategy that encourages resolving disputes through one-on-one negotiations rather than multilateral frameworks. In my recent article, I contend that China’s bilateral approach in the South China Sea represents a strategic maneuver aimed at challenging the liberal world order. By advocating for bilateral engagements, China subtly signals a viable alternative to multilateralism for managing territorial disputes. This approach not only showcases China's diplomatic flexibility but also positions it as a counter-model to the rules-based international order that favors multilateral solutions. For a more in-depth discussion, you can read the full article here.

I was happy to contribute an article on 🇨🇳 China's economic engagement in the #WesternBalkans to the 2024 IEMed Yearbook of the European Institute of the Mediterranean. It discusses bilateral trade, investments and loan-funded contracts, as well as the state of play of the region's EU accession and geopolitical positioning as key factors influencing the economic cooperation. Due to 🇨🇳 China's transactional approach and different degrees of receptiveness of its economic presence in different countries, it is questionable to which extent we can talk about the #WesternBalkans as a region in its cooperation with China. 📖

On January 23, the China Daily newspaper published my article, in which noted that the mutual trust forged between Uzbekistan and China, the close interaction between their respective governments, and the exchanges among experts and members of the business community and academic circles of the two countries create a solid foundation for expanding and strengthening multifaceted cooperation. Uzbekistan-China relations have reached a high level of interaction, their comprehensive strategic partnership is expanding in the new era, and economic ties are being strengthened. China continues to hold first place among Uzbekistan's trade partner https://lnkd.in/dykBuyRE

For trade prosperity, Xi said China will voluntarily and unilaterally open its market wider and has decided to give all the least developed countries having diplomatic relations with China, including 33 countries in Africa, zero-tariff treatment for 100 percent tariff lines. This has made China the first major developing country and the first major economy to take such a step, which will help turn China's big market into Africa's big opportunity. https://lnkd.in/emkh_Mx4

A few comments in the ChinaDaily.com.cn on #Canada #China relations in the context of the recent phone call between ministers. Its interesting to see which comments they included in my interview and the ones they didnt. This is what wasnt included: "The current Canada -China relationship can be characterized as awkward, filled with inconvenient truths, and highly politicized. It is awkward and has numerous inconvenient truths in that despite record lows in unfavorability ratings of China in Canada, the trade relationship continues to be mutually beneficial and deepening. The highly politicized aspect of the relationship relates to deepening suspicion, real and imagined, about Chinese interference in Canada's democratic process and civil society and its disruptive role in the #IndoPacific and in global institutions and Beijing's view that Ottawa has no autonomy vis-a-vis its foreign policy. The recent engagement is positive but it does little to address the above issues." https://lnkd.in/gwtBsrPJ

A smart article by Ryosuke Hanada in the East Asia Forum on #Japan– #southkorea engagement with #China "The newfound Kishida–Yoon partnership will allow the two countries to jointly engage with China. This time, however, is not for bringing China into the global economy or changing China’s domestic rules and systems. Both countries should stabilise their own bilateral relations with China by anchoring them to the trilateral mechanism to preserve their leverage against China in their respective bilateral negotiations." https://lnkd.in/gcTEVwcE

Beijing hosted the Forum of China Africa Cooperation last week (#focac). China’s President Xi Jinping delivered open remarks (main link below), which summarise the main areas of focus for China-Africa collaboration for the next 3 years. China Foreign Minister Wang Yi summarised the key outcomes in a separate speech. This is here: https://lnkd.in/g-hnePyb Headline elements include: ✅ Lifting of all tariffs on goods from developing countries (33 African nations’ exporters to benefit from improved access to China’s market). ✅ A multilayered approach to capacity building, addressing skills, information technology infrastructure, energy security etc. China’s funding commitment is in the order of approximately US$50 billion (though, as should be expected in a currency multipolar world, the funding will be made available in RMB). #china #africa

In summary, Indonesia has expressed its desire to join the BRICS group of major emerging economies, which accounts for 35 percent of global economic output, as a means to strengthen emerging countries. The BRICS also backs new Indonesia President Prabowo’s priorities, including food and energy security, poverty eradication and improving human capital. The starting the process to join BRICS marks the first foreign policy move by the Prabowo government. It would be a major win for BRICS. Visiting Beijing next week also vividly reflects strategic priorities of his foreign policy ensuring greater socio-economic integration, trans-regional connectivity and FDIs from China. Thus economic diplomacy will be followed despite the emergence of some minor maritime issues pertaining to North Natuna waters. Indonesia’s sovereign right to North Natuna waters is fully recognized by the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). China has been Indonesia’s largest trading partner for 10 consecutive years. According to official statistics, China-Indonesia trade accounted for 25.24 percent of Indonesia’s total trade in 2022. China has also been Indonesia’s largest source of imports for 13 consecutive years, number one export destination for seven consecutive years and.

Africa continues to be toyed around by foreign nations including China. China has had an African strategy, of course not to benefit Africa, but the country always makes African states believe it is for African interest. We see China as an Asian friend who wants us to build infrastructure and help us industrialise, but to the contrary. Until the AU Commission is empowered enough to help African states negotiate as one - Africa will remain at trade deficit and a key supplier of commodities and related raw materials. Africa must put their heads together, forge their industrialisation agenda as one, and encourage intra-trade.