Tahir Mahmood, PhD’s Post

View profile for Tahir Mahmood, PhD, graphic

Lecturer, School of Computing, Engineering and Physical Sciences

📢 Excited to share our latest research publication! Forecasting mortality rates is essential for assessing life insurance company solvency, especially in times of disruption like COVID-19. While the Lee–Carter model is widely used in mortality modeling, our research explores an innovative approach using the Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) model with the COM–Poisson distribution. By analyzing mortality data from 29 countries, we found that the COM–Poisson model outperforms traditional distributions like Poisson, binomial, and negative binomial in forecasting accuracy. The GAS model’s one-step forecasting capability, combined with the flexibility of the COM–Poisson distribution, offers a robust solution for modeling time-varying mortality rates and non-conventional data distributions. This research highlights the potential of the COM–Poisson GAS model as a powerful tool for improving mortality rate predictions and addressing diverse data challenges in the life insurance sector. #Research #MortalityForecasting #InsuranceSolvency #COMPoisson #GASModel #TimeSeries #DataScience https://lnkd.in/emuT-v85

Unifying mortality forecasting model: an investigation of the COM–Poisson distribution in the GAS model for improved projections - Lifetime Data Analysis

Unifying mortality forecasting model: an investigation of the COM–Poisson distribution in the GAS model for improved projections - Lifetime Data Analysis

link.springer.com

Amitava Mukherjee

Professor at XLRI Jamshedpur

2mo

Heartiest congratulations

Abdu R Rahman

(Bio) Statistician at WHO | Ex Faculty @AKU | GIS Modeling | Quarto | Data Visualization

2mo

Congratulations 🎉

Like
Reply
Olabisi Akinyele

A multi-disciplinary individual with experience in Micro and Macroeconomics 🔹Econometrics 🔹Research and report writing 🔹Information system analysis 🔹Database design 🔹Data analytics 🔹Programming with Python✨✨

2mo

Congratulations sir Tahir Mahmood, PhD!

Like
Reply
Moiz Qureshi

Lecturer || Data Analyst || Researcher || Visiting Faculty

2mo

Congrats Sir

Like
Reply
See more comments

To view or add a comment, sign in

Explore topics