📢 Excited to share our latest research publication! Forecasting mortality rates is essential for assessing life insurance company solvency, especially in times of disruption like COVID-19. While the Lee–Carter model is widely used in mortality modeling, our research explores an innovative approach using the Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) model with the COM–Poisson distribution. By analyzing mortality data from 29 countries, we found that the COM–Poisson model outperforms traditional distributions like Poisson, binomial, and negative binomial in forecasting accuracy. The GAS model’s one-step forecasting capability, combined with the flexibility of the COM–Poisson distribution, offers a robust solution for modeling time-varying mortality rates and non-conventional data distributions. This research highlights the potential of the COM–Poisson GAS model as a powerful tool for improving mortality rate predictions and addressing diverse data challenges in the life insurance sector. #Research #MortalityForecasting #InsuranceSolvency #COMPoisson #GASModel #TimeSeries #DataScience https://lnkd.in/emuT-v85
Congratulations 🎉
Congratulations sir Tahir Mahmood, PhD!
Congrats Sir
Professor at XLRI Jamshedpur
2moHeartiest congratulations