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🌍𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟓 - 𝐍𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐠𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐃𝐲𝐧𝐚𝐦𝐢𝐜𝐬 𝐏𝐨𝐬𝐭-𝐔𝐒 𝐄𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧: 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐎𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 The recent U.S. presidential elections have stirred significant waves in the global economic landscape. With policies potentially inclining toward heightened tariffs, expansive fiscal measures, and tightened immigration rules, businesses across industries are reassessing their strategies. Key insights into the evolving scenario: 📉 𝐑𝐚𝐰 𝐌𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐚𝐥𝐬 & 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐨𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬: The prices of commodities like oil and industrial metals are expected to face volatility. Tensions could tighten supply chains, potentially driving costs up. 📦 𝐒𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐑𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭: Tariff impositions might complicate global trade, especially between the U.S. and manufacturing hubs like China, further impacting B2B dynamics. Companies may need to rethink supply chain resilience and sourcing strategies. 🔍 𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤: While the U.S. economy could see a slight growth boost due to fiscal expansion, global GDP growth may stabilize just above 3%, with downside risks looming. Europe's growth remains sluggish, compounded by trade constraints and slow domestic demand. 💼 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭 𝐨𝐧 𝐁𝟐𝐁 𝐁𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐬: Geopolitical uncertainty and increased costs may strain manufacturing and trade sectors. B2B companies must proactively adapt by diversifying markets, optimizing operations, and leveraging digital tools to stay competitive. As professionals, staying informed and agile is crucial. 𝐻𝑜𝑤 𝑑𝑜 𝑦𝑜𝑢 𝑠𝑒𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑠𝑒 𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑦𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑏𝑢𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑜𝑟 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑦?  Let's discuss and share strategies for resilience and growth! #markettrends #B2Bbusiness #globaleconomy #supplychainchallenges #tariffsimpact #economicgrowth #businessstrategy #rawmaterials #geopoliticalrisks #postelectioninsights #globaltrade #businessresilience #leadershipinchange #futureofbusiness #manufacturingchallenges

2025: a two-scenario view of the economy.   Our economic scenario for 2025 is divided into two halves. The first half shows stable growth, underpinned by factors such as lower financing costs, a stimulus package in China, the possibility of tax cuts in the US and a strong services sector on a global basis.   However, the second half could pose some challenges: renewed inflationary pressures, tariffs, geopolitical tensions between the US and China, and fiscal uncertainty in several countries.   Join Juan de Dios Sanchez-Roselly, CFA and Cristina González Iregui for an in-depth look at how these factors could shape the macroeconomic landscape in 2025.   Find out more in our #GlobalMarketOutlook 2025: https://lnkd.in/djNyuxkr

Chinese leaders plan to discuss GDP target, and stimulus next week According to Bloomberg sources, the two-day summit will be attended by prominent Chinese officials. Investors will be watching to see how the leaders of the worlds second-largest economy want to manage fiscal, monetary, and industrial policy.

https://lnkd.in/g69J54dV The interplay of economic policies in the US, Europe, and China underscores a critical reality: no economy operates in isolation. As the US refines its fiscal and trade policies, Europe grapples with structural reform, and China adapts to new growth paradigms, the global economy stands at a crossroads. For stakeholders worldwide, the challenge lies in navigating these complexities while fostering resilience and inclusivity in an interconnected world.

2025: A Tale of Two Economic Scenarios The outlook for 2025 presents a story of two halves. In the first half, stability reigns: Lower financing costs A potential stimulus boost from China Possible tax cuts in the US Robust global growth, led by the services sector But the second half introduces potential headwinds: Renewed inflationary pressures Escalating US-China geopolitical tensions Persistent tariffs Fiscal uncertainty in multiple regions

#KNMarketView Mexican election results took local markets by surprise, as discussed in previous notes. The USDMXN rose by +8.25%, closing at its highest level since March 2023, with the next resistance at MXN $18.50. Mexican 10-year government bonds also traded under pressure, reaching levels not seen since 2005 (10.59%). We think they look attractive at current levels, with the economy doing well and inflation stabilizing. The Mexican equity market might remain volatile, but consumer demand and nearshoring effects should help companies report good numbers. Regarding economic data, “US jobs surge casts doubt over interest rate cuts. Employers added 272,000 jobs in May, the US Labor Department said, above expectations of 185,000 new roles” link. US’s 10Y bonds move higher after trading at its two-month low closing at 4.44%. “China's trade surplus widened to USD$82.62bn in May 2024 from USD$65.55bn in the same period a year earlier, surpassing market expectations of USD$73bn. It was the largest trade surplus since February” link. This week, the focus will be on US and China inflation rates, the UK unemployment rate, and GDP. Industrial production will be released for major economies. The FOMC economic projections will be released on Wednesday, with no changes expected in the Fed's interest rate decision. https://wix.to/lk6z2G2

💡 Market Insights by Bas Kooijman MSTA 💡 ◾ U.S.: stocks surged following the Republican win in the White House and Congress, with investors optimistic about potential tax cuts, deregulation, and economic growth policies. ◾ Europe: stocks declined, with the STOXX Europe 600 Index down 0.84% as concerns over potential U.S. trade policies affecting European growth weighed on sentiment. ◾ Japan: real wages declined slightly, and household spending fell, signaling ongoing economic challenges despite nominal wage increases. ◾ China: stock markets rallied, with the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 both gaining over 5.5%, following the announcement of significant local government debt relief measures. Overall, global markets are adjusting to significant political changes and economic data releases, with investors closely monitoring the potential impacts of policy shifts in the U.S. #marketinsights #globalmarkets #us #europe #japan #china

Date: 14/11/2024 Eight years after Donald Trump’s first win, the global stage has shifted dramatically. China, once seen as America’s rising rival, now reveals deep vulnerabilities. For Trump, gearing up for another trade war may be unnecessary and counterproductive. ⚫China’s Economic Woes — Growth Slows: GDP growth is expected to struggle to hit 5% this year, down from nearly 7% in 2016. — Weak Domestic Demand: Anemic consumption and a real estate crisis have left the economy reliant on exports. — FDI Outflows: Foreign direct investment is on track for its first annual net outflow since 1990, reflecting declining confidence in China’s market. — Near-Zero Inflation: Signals ongoing economic stagnation despite stimulus efforts. ⚫Trade Surplus Soars — China’s trade surplus could reach a record $1 trillion this year, driven by export volume rather than price increases. — This imbalance amplifies global tensions but also highlights China’s dependency on external markets, a fragile position. ⚫US Resilience — The US, meanwhile, is thriving. The IMF projects stronger growth for America than China. — Economic confidence has rebounded post-pandemic, buoyed by a resilient dollar and robust labor market. — Trump’s plans for renewed tariffs could jeopardize this, potentially stoking inflation and dampening consumer spending. ⚫Why Fight a Weak Opponent? — 2016 vs. 2024: In 2016, China’s rapid growth posed a legitimate threat. Today, it’s navigating structural issues that diminish its competitive edge. — No Need for Escalation: With China already on the back foot, further tariffs risk hurting US consumers more than Beijing. — Strategic Restraint: Trump might benefit from a softer approach, avoiding unnecessary inflationary pressures while maintaining leverage for future negotiations. ⚫A Lesson from Sun Tzu “The greatest victory is that which requires no battle.” Instead of reigniting trade tensions, Trump could capitalize on America’s current strength, letting China’s internal struggles work to his advantage.